Myth: Jayson Werth had a terrible 2011 Season.
Fact: Jayson Werth had a terrible 1st half of the 2011 Season.
I can't tell you how many times I have seen that Jayson Werth had a terrible 2011 season. Was it what fan's expected? No. But does that automatically mean that it was terrible? No. It doesn't. Not at all.
Before we get into me proving myself right, let's look at Werth's history.
From 2002-2009, Werth moved from Toronto to Los Angeles, finally settling in the City of Brotherly Love in 2007. Up until that point he was plagued with injury problems and he was mostly a 4th or 5th outfielder, not able to lock down a starting job. It wasn't until 2008 when he got that spot in the Phillies 2008 juggernaut of a lineup featuring healthier and younger versions of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, as well as perennial MVP candidate, Jimmy Rollins. Once he was able to settle in to that lineup, things went very well for him.
This is his slashline from 2002-2009: .265/.360/.467
Fast forward to 2010. The Phillies won a whopping 97 games and Jayson Werth had a career year (in his contract year, no less - shocking). Werth posted career highs in Runs, Hits, Doubles (almost doubling his previous high), Average, and Slugging - definitely an anomaly year.
So, was it naive for Nats fans to think that this was the Werth that was coming to DC?
Yes.
I'm guilty of it, just as I'm sure many of you are guilty of it.
But let's get back to this past year. Yes, his first half of the season was pathetic as he posted a .215 Average and a .681 OPS, but a bad first half does not a bad season make.
Post All-Star break, Jayson Werth began to resemble to resemble the player that he was from 2002-2009 with this 2nd half slashline: .255/.345/.426.
Are these numbers lower than his career average? Yes, but not enough to throw a hissy fit over.
- The lower average can be explained by going from feasting on Nationals pitchers to having to face the Phillies Four-Horsemen.
- The lower OBP can be explained by going from hitting behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to hitting behind Roger Bernadina and Ian Desmond.
- The lower Slugging % can be explained by going from Citizen's Bank Smallpark to more neutral Nationals Park.
This is the new reality for Jayson Werth. In my (expert) opinion, Jayson Werth is going to have a better year than last year, but it won't come close to touching the .296/.388/.532 of 2010.
But for now, can we please resist the urge to label all of Werth's 2011 a disaster? Thanks.
Showing posts with label Jayson Werth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jayson Werth. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
A Few Good Men: 33 - Werth
Jayson Werth - Age 32 - Due $110 Million through 2017
How he became a Nat: Signed a 7 year - $126 Million deal in December of 2010.
The Raw Numbers:
HR - 20
RBI - 58
SB - 19
K - 160 (Career High)
AVG - .232 (Worst in a full season)
UZR - 1.4
WAR - 2.5
Key Stat: .323. This is Werth's wOBA for the past year. This stat is his Weighted On Base Average, it uses a complicated formula that is a much more accurate tool than a players OPS. It is due in part to the fact that Werth left the comforts of Citizen's Bank Ballpark and partly due to the fact that Zimmerman was gone from the lineup for most of the year. Also noting that this was Werth's worst year in a while.
Best Game: May 20th vs the Orioles. Werth exploded in a 17-5 Nats rout of our neighbors to the north. He went 3 for 5 with 2 home runs and 4 runs batted in. It was this point that most in NatsTown believed that Werth was finally going to break out of his (at that point) season-long slump [Ed. Note - it wasn't].
Worst Game: This is toughie - so I'm going to go with his worst performance at the plate (this was especially tough because he had 3 Golden Sombrero's on the year). I would have to say that the worst was on May 12th vs Atlanta. Werth struck out 4 times in 5 ABs in a 6-5 loss to the Braves in extra innings - three of those strikeouts were looking.
CapBall Grade: C-. Werth had a terrible season - especially when you consider his salary. One thing that Werth did do is provide a hard-nosed attitude and some solid defense (Werth was the 11th best defensive OF in the NL according to UZR). One of the reasons why I didn't give him a lower grade is that his 2nd half (.255/.345/.426) was pretty close to his career averages (.264/.360/.464) - much better than his first half. [Ed. Note - difference in slugging is due to his not being in Citizen's Bank].
2012 Nats Status: With $110+ Million still on the books it's pretty safe to assume that we will be seeing Werth in RF come Opening Day in Chicago. The only thing that could be any different is if the Nats fail to get a Center Fielder and Werth has to man CF or if Bryce Harper kills everyone in Spring Training and comes north with the Big Club to play RF - both scenarios very unlikely.
We know that Werth had a terrible season - the question is if he can rebound next year. Answer in the comments!
How he became a Nat: Signed a 7 year - $126 Million deal in December of 2010.
The Raw Numbers:
HR - 20
RBI - 58
SB - 19
K - 160 (Career High)
AVG - .232 (Worst in a full season)
UZR - 1.4
WAR - 2.5
Key Stat: .323. This is Werth's wOBA for the past year. This stat is his Weighted On Base Average, it uses a complicated formula that is a much more accurate tool than a players OPS. It is due in part to the fact that Werth left the comforts of Citizen's Bank Ballpark and partly due to the fact that Zimmerman was gone from the lineup for most of the year. Also noting that this was Werth's worst year in a while.
Best Game: May 20th vs the Orioles. Werth exploded in a 17-5 Nats rout of our neighbors to the north. He went 3 for 5 with 2 home runs and 4 runs batted in. It was this point that most in NatsTown believed that Werth was finally going to break out of his (at that point) season-long slump [Ed. Note - it wasn't].
Worst Game: This is toughie - so I'm going to go with his worst performance at the plate (this was especially tough because he had 3 Golden Sombrero's on the year). I would have to say that the worst was on May 12th vs Atlanta. Werth struck out 4 times in 5 ABs in a 6-5 loss to the Braves in extra innings - three of those strikeouts were looking.
CapBall Grade: C-. Werth had a terrible season - especially when you consider his salary. One thing that Werth did do is provide a hard-nosed attitude and some solid defense (Werth was the 11th best defensive OF in the NL according to UZR). One of the reasons why I didn't give him a lower grade is that his 2nd half (.255/.345/.426) was pretty close to his career averages (.264/.360/.464) - much better than his first half. [Ed. Note - difference in slugging is due to his not being in Citizen's Bank].
2012 Nats Status: With $110+ Million still on the books it's pretty safe to assume that we will be seeing Werth in RF come Opening Day in Chicago. The only thing that could be any different is if the Nats fail to get a Center Fielder and Werth has to man CF or if Bryce Harper kills everyone in Spring Training and comes north with the Big Club to play RF - both scenarios very unlikely.
We know that Werth had a terrible season - the question is if he can rebound next year. Answer in the comments!
Thursday, August 4, 2011
2nd Half Resurgence
This Nats season has been quite an upside down year as we have covered before. We have seen our star player miss more than two months with an oblique injury, our new 1B play 0 healthy innings this year before shutting it down for surgery, and our $126 million acquisition play like Nook Logan. In addition we have seen a rookie lead all Nats hitters in WAR, our error rate drastically decrease, a sophomore slump out of our 2nd baseman, and a green catcher taking over as the starter instead of a Future Hall of Famer. Throw in a managerial resignation in the midst of an 8 game winning streak and we have insanity.
Since Davey Johnson took the reigns of the club he has dreamed of big offense, the "hairy-chested guy" that comes off the bench to swat a homer to win a 10-9 slobberknocker. And since the All-Star break that team has begun to show up more and more. Some players have stayed scorching hot (see: Morse, Michael) and others are starting to join the party.
Which leads me to the point of this - the Nationals recent string of wins with offense have been led by two players who are finally heating up; Jayson Werth and Ian Desmond.
Let's start with Desmond.
His first half was marred by a lack of hitting and spotty defense (pre-fatherhood) - he hit just .223 with 22 RBIs. Since the break he has been slowly but surely heating up, and in the 17 second half games he is hitting a much more manageable .265 with 9 RBIs. A sign of him possibly heating up - in his last 4 games he has 5 RBIs, whereas it took 32 games for his previous 5 RBIs. He also has been showing a ton more pop than before, as evidenced by his Tuesday home run, his first since April 17th.
Next let's get to the $126 Million Dollar Beard - Werth.
The Bad - 1st Half - 88 Games. .215 AVG. .681 OPS. 10 HR. 31 RBI.
The Good - 2nd Half - 17 Games. .285 AVG. .899 OPS. 3 HR. 11 RBI.
So far his 2nd half numbers are all well above his career averages for AVG and OPS, a welcome change from that miserable first half. With Werth finally hitting like the player he was in Philly, the Nationals now have one of the most formidable 3-4-5 hitters in baseball with Zimmerman, Morse, and Werth. Add Desmond, Gomes/Nix, and Espinosa in some combination of 2, 6, and 7 and they now have the potential to put up some (Carpenter-style) crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
The Nationals have found some recent success at the plate thanks to several reasons, but there should be no question that Werth and Desmond are at the top of that list. Hopefully they can keep it up, get some momentum, and help the team win some ballgames.
Since Davey Johnson took the reigns of the club he has dreamed of big offense, the "hairy-chested guy" that comes off the bench to swat a homer to win a 10-9 slobberknocker. And since the All-Star break that team has begun to show up more and more. Some players have stayed scorching hot (see: Morse, Michael) and others are starting to join the party.
Which leads me to the point of this - the Nationals recent string of wins with offense have been led by two players who are finally heating up; Jayson Werth and Ian Desmond.
Let's start with Desmond.
His first half was marred by a lack of hitting and spotty defense (pre-fatherhood) - he hit just .223 with 22 RBIs. Since the break he has been slowly but surely heating up, and in the 17 second half games he is hitting a much more manageable .265 with 9 RBIs. A sign of him possibly heating up - in his last 4 games he has 5 RBIs, whereas it took 32 games for his previous 5 RBIs. He also has been showing a ton more pop than before, as evidenced by his Tuesday home run, his first since April 17th.
Next let's get to the $126 Million Dollar Beard - Werth.
The Bad - 1st Half - 88 Games. .215 AVG. .681 OPS. 10 HR. 31 RBI.
The Good - 2nd Half - 17 Games. .285 AVG. .899 OPS. 3 HR. 11 RBI.
So far his 2nd half numbers are all well above his career averages for AVG and OPS, a welcome change from that miserable first half. With Werth finally hitting like the player he was in Philly, the Nationals now have one of the most formidable 3-4-5 hitters in baseball with Zimmerman, Morse, and Werth. Add Desmond, Gomes/Nix, and Espinosa in some combination of 2, 6, and 7 and they now have the potential to put up some (Carpenter-style) crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
The Nationals have found some recent success at the plate thanks to several reasons, but there should be no question that Werth and Desmond are at the top of that list. Hopefully they can keep it up, get some momentum, and help the team win some ballgames.
Monday, March 7, 2011
25 in 25: Jayson Werth (#2)
In 24 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Next up on our list is the $126 Million Dollar Man and bearded wonder, Jayson Werth.
Why?: Lets ignore the fact that we just paid the forbidden amount for the phormer Phillies heart and soul player; $126 Million, same as Zito and Wells. Werth has been an All-Star caliber player for the best team in the National League, posting a total of 15 WAR over the past 3 years. His offensive credentials certainly qualify Jayson for inclusion in the best of baseball, as he placed in the Top 10 for several major offensive categories in 2010 (OPS, OPS+, OBP, SLUG%, Runs, Runs Created, etc.)
Oh yea, and in his 8 years in the Majors he has compiled a 43.8 UZR combined, while playing all the outfield positions.
What should you expect?: There are a lot of variables that will contribute to Werth's performance in 2011 and beyond; lineup position, pitchers faced, etc. But in the short term I think we can expect all of the numbers to dip compared to the past few years.
Reasons:
- Won't get to feast off of Nationals pitching 18 times a year
- Will have to face the Four Aces up in Philadelphia probably 14 times next year
- Will he hit 3rd, 4th, or 5th?
Given the amount of money that the Lerner's shelled out for his services, many expect that Werth will hit in the 4 hole come Opening Day. But on March 1st, Riggleman said that the most likely scenario will be Werth hitting in the 3 hole, while giving Zimmerman the bulk of at bats in the clean up spot. This will mean that his Run totals will increase, but that his RBI totals will plateau or decrease due to fewer runners on for him.
In the field, I think that Werth will bounce back from a down year to post a terrific UZR while gunning out 10, or so, runners that aren't smart enough to hold when Werth has the ball.
Werth will earn his money this year.
Next up on our list is the $126 Million Dollar Man and bearded wonder, Jayson Werth.
Why?: Lets ignore the fact that we just paid the forbidden amount for the phormer Phillies heart and soul player; $126 Million, same as Zito and Wells. Werth has been an All-Star caliber player for the best team in the National League, posting a total of 15 WAR over the past 3 years. His offensive credentials certainly qualify Jayson for inclusion in the best of baseball, as he placed in the Top 10 for several major offensive categories in 2010 (OPS, OPS+, OBP, SLUG%, Runs, Runs Created, etc.)
Oh yea, and in his 8 years in the Majors he has compiled a 43.8 UZR combined, while playing all the outfield positions.
What should you expect?: There are a lot of variables that will contribute to Werth's performance in 2011 and beyond; lineup position, pitchers faced, etc. But in the short term I think we can expect all of the numbers to dip compared to the past few years.
Reasons:
- Won't get to feast off of Nationals pitching 18 times a year
- Will have to face the Four Aces up in Philadelphia probably 14 times next year
- Will he hit 3rd, 4th, or 5th?
Given the amount of money that the Lerner's shelled out for his services, many expect that Werth will hit in the 4 hole come Opening Day. But on March 1st, Riggleman said that the most likely scenario will be Werth hitting in the 3 hole, while giving Zimmerman the bulk of at bats in the clean up spot. This will mean that his Run totals will increase, but that his RBI totals will plateau or decrease due to fewer runners on for him.
In the field, I think that Werth will bounce back from a down year to post a terrific UZR while gunning out 10, or so, runners that aren't smart enough to hold when Werth has the ball.
Werth will earn his money this year.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Nats' Crazy Contract Clauses
Today, ESPN's Jayson Stark put together a fantastic list of "small print" catches from this year's contract signings. Here's a summary of the Nats have two players that have made the list. I highly recommend you head over there to read Stark's article, though. It's really fascinating. Especially the part about the SIX Pirates players, including former Nat Scott Olsen, that will get big bonuses if they are named World Series MVP. Yea... on to more realistic possibilities...
Jayson Werth - No surprises here. The hundred million dollar plus man's deal is not related to his beard though, unfortunately. It's written directly into Werth's contract that he will wear #28 in DC. No negotiation between him and Michael Morse about this, it seems. As long as Jayson's getting paid in DC, he'll be wearing #28.
Chien-Ming Wang - As Stark says, Wang's contract is incredibly incentive laden, so it's not surprising he's got a weird one here or there. But if this former AL pitcher out hits all NL pitchers in 2011 (should he even appear in a game), he'll earn an extra $50,000. If that happens though, it's probably the other millions that the Nationals will be more excited about, because it means he'll be winning and pitching a bucket of innings.
Honorable Mention former Nats 1B Adam Dunn - I don't mean to reopen old wounds here folks, but this honorable mention is due here. Dunn's new contract with the White Sox, where he'll be mainly a DH, will pay him $25,000 if he wins a Gold Glove. Not sure it would have made much of a difference if he was still playing in DC, though. (see: Pujols, Albert)
Jayson Werth - No surprises here. The hundred million dollar plus man's deal is not related to his beard though, unfortunately. It's written directly into Werth's contract that he will wear #28 in DC. No negotiation between him and Michael Morse about this, it seems. As long as Jayson's getting paid in DC, he'll be wearing #28.
Chien-Ming Wang - As Stark says, Wang's contract is incredibly incentive laden, so it's not surprising he's got a weird one here or there. But if this former AL pitcher out hits all NL pitchers in 2011 (should he even appear in a game), he'll earn an extra $50,000. If that happens though, it's probably the other millions that the Nationals will be more excited about, because it means he'll be winning and pitching a bucket of innings.
Honorable Mention former Nats 1B Adam Dunn - I don't mean to reopen old wounds here folks, but this honorable mention is due here. Dunn's new contract with the White Sox, where he'll be mainly a DH, will pay him $25,000 if he wins a Gold Glove. Not sure it would have made much of a difference if he was still playing in DC, though. (see: Pujols, Albert)
Friday, December 17, 2010
Give Wang a Chance
With the Nationals recently parting ways with Josh Willingham, not resigning Adam Dunn, and spending a spectacular amount of money on Jayson Werth, there seems to be an increasing amount of frustration in NatsTown... and NatsTown is no stranger to frustration.
So when the Nationals signed Chien-Ming Wang to another 1 year deal worth $1 million, there are some that were baffled by the contract. After all, Wang can earn up to $5 million in incentives. But cool your jets, folks. This is not a bad deal, even if Wang never shows up to Nationals Park. Here's why...
- He's a proven 19 game winner who is capable of pitching with a sub-4.00 ERA.
- He showed significant progress at the end of last season, and even pitched to live hitters.
- If he pans out, Rizzo and the front office will look brilliant, signing the 2006 AL Cy Young runner-up for a measly $1 million.
- Even if he meets all of his contractual incentives, and the club has to pay him $5 million, it's still a steal.
- The amount of media attention and merchandising the Nats will get from the Far East should Wang become a regular starter will make the Lerners even richer, which means even more big free agents to DC.
So, while I am truly concerned about many things that have (and haven't) happened in the off-season this year, the $1 million contract to Chien-Ming Wang doesn't register anywhere on that list. What say you, loyal readers?
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Psuedo-Live Blog of Werth Presser
I am going to be posting a stream-of-consciousness series of thoughts about today's Jayson Werth "Introduction to Phase Two" press conference.
Without further ado, here are my thoughts on the MASN production of the Scott Boras and Jayson Werth Show.
And go.
12:57 - I now know more about the ECU Men's Basketball team than I ever knew before; in that, they have a Men's Basketball team.
12:59 - MASN Special Report!!
1:00 - John De(n)ver, does not sing Rocky Mountain High, but does introduce the team players. Riggleman, Rizzo, Werth, and Boras. In other news the "Phase Two" tally is now at 1.
1:02 - Jayson Werth is clean-shaven. Sad day for all bearded men. But he is rocking a nice Soul Patch.
1:03 - Photo-op of Werth in the new Nats Curly W-filled jersey. Takes him about an hour and a half to button it up. John Dever asks him to spin for the camera, working the catwalk.
1:06 - "Grittyness" "Will-to-win" "Unpolished" "Underdog" all out of Werth's mouth in a 10 second span.
1:07 - Big smiles from Werth about Matt Stairs.
1:08 - Wants to play "into his 40s"
1:08 - Dave Nichols asks about living up to the contract. "wants to be involved with something greater than we have seen before" "no undo pressure" "cliched answer" "going to war"
1:08 - Craig Heist says something, probably about how much he hates Ian Desmond.
1:09 - Zuck asks about having the weight of being the star "looking forward to it".
1:10 - Werth investing in lots of polish. As he says that word 3 more times.
1:11 - Feels strongly about the talent in DC.
1:11 - We Love DC says "Coors" in a very funny way. Almost like "Cooers". In a related note, Werth is excited about staying in the NL East.
1:12 - Man that profile view of the soul patch is something else...
1:13 - More cliched answers about preparation. He has been prepared by Boras pretty well.
1:14 - In my favorite moment, Werth says that he missed what happened in Philly with Cliff Lee. Fantastic.
1:15 - Werth has a no-trade clause?? News to me.
1:16 - I am curious what "Advanced training methods" Werth is referring to.
1:18 - Werth refers to his past relationship with Riggleman in 2004 with the Dodgers.
1:20 - Magic words "I hate to lose". Much better to have an athlete that hates to lose, rather than loves to win.
1:21 - "Scrappy"
1:22 - Tom Boswell!!! Awesome cable-knit sweater. "The more I play, the better I am going to get. That's pretty evident" Cocky. Love it.
1:24 - Last call!
1:26 - On Nats vs. Phillies, "If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best." "Over time, people will see that the Nationals are for real."
1:27 - John De(n)ver leaves us with "Take Me Home, Country Roads."
Initial Thoughts:
- Werth can be a pretty funny guy, but is a walking cliche-machine.
- Glad Boras didn't say a word.
- Glad there was no Debbie Taylor or Ray Knight.
- Only a few MASN-style audio glitches.
- Good for the Nationals for giving credentials to bloggers.
- Should be a fun year.
- Is it Spring Training yet???
Without further ado, here are my thoughts on the MASN production of the Scott Boras and Jayson Werth Show.
And go.
12:57 - I now know more about the ECU Men's Basketball team than I ever knew before; in that, they have a Men's Basketball team.
12:59 - MASN Special Report!!
1:00 - John De(n)ver, does not sing Rocky Mountain High, but does introduce the team players. Riggleman, Rizzo, Werth, and Boras. In other news the "Phase Two" tally is now at 1.
1:02 - Jayson Werth is clean-shaven. Sad day for all bearded men. But he is rocking a nice Soul Patch.
1:03 - Photo-op of Werth in the new Nats Curly W-filled jersey. Takes him about an hour and a half to button it up. John Dever asks him to spin for the camera, working the catwalk.
1:06 - "Grittyness" "Will-to-win" "Unpolished" "Underdog" all out of Werth's mouth in a 10 second span.
1:07 - Big smiles from Werth about Matt Stairs.
1:08 - Wants to play "into his 40s"
1:08 - Dave Nichols asks about living up to the contract. "wants to be involved with something greater than we have seen before" "no undo pressure" "cliched answer" "going to war"
1:08 - Craig Heist says something, probably about how much he hates Ian Desmond.
1:09 - Zuck asks about having the weight of being the star "looking forward to it".
1:10 - Werth investing in lots of polish. As he says that word 3 more times.
1:11 - Feels strongly about the talent in DC.
1:11 - We Love DC says "Coors" in a very funny way. Almost like "Cooers". In a related note, Werth is excited about staying in the NL East.
1:12 - Man that profile view of the soul patch is something else...
1:13 - More cliched answers about preparation. He has been prepared by Boras pretty well.
1:14 - In my favorite moment, Werth says that he missed what happened in Philly with Cliff Lee. Fantastic.
1:15 - Werth has a no-trade clause?? News to me.
1:16 - I am curious what "Advanced training methods" Werth is referring to.
1:18 - Werth refers to his past relationship with Riggleman in 2004 with the Dodgers.
1:20 - Magic words "I hate to lose". Much better to have an athlete that hates to lose, rather than loves to win.
1:21 - "Scrappy"
1:22 - Tom Boswell!!! Awesome cable-knit sweater. "The more I play, the better I am going to get. That's pretty evident" Cocky. Love it.
1:24 - Last call!
1:26 - On Nats vs. Phillies, "If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best." "Over time, people will see that the Nationals are for real."
1:27 - John De(n)ver leaves us with "Take Me Home, Country Roads."
Initial Thoughts:
- Werth can be a pretty funny guy, but is a walking cliche-machine.
- Glad Boras didn't say a word.
- Glad there was no Debbie Taylor or Ray Knight.
- Only a few MASN-style audio glitches.
- Good for the Nationals for giving credentials to bloggers.
- Should be a fun year.
- Is it Spring Training yet???
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
The State of the Nats: The Week After Winter Meetings (Cliff Lee Included)
After a week of playing "who will they get besides Jayson Werth" and ending up with no one, the Nationals have only about 9 weeks to solidify some sort of roster before pitchers and catchers report to Viera, Florida to begin Spring Training 2011. But where do the Nats stand at this moment? Let's dig into it, bullet point style.
Starting Pitchers:
There are a host of options here, but here are the six most likely to compete for the job in order of likelihood that they'll be in the rotation. This all can change, for sure.
- Jordan Zimmermann - Brought in to be the 2nd starter behind Strasburg, he will have to take on a larger role this year than the team wants him to. This embodies the problem that this rotation has had for several years: forcing guys into more prominent roles than they may be ready for.
- Jason Marquis - Money. The reason Marquis is this high on the list has nothing to do with his performance last year, whether his relative success late in the year or his abhorrent beginning. It's all about the money, and with $7.5 million guaranteed to Marquis in 2011, there's no way he doesn't make the rotation barring an injury.
- John Lannan - Lannan showed signs of resurgence, and for the first time in a while, Lannan won't be the Opening Day starter. This is huge, as Lannan is probably a #3 starter at best. This might turn into more success for John as the years progress.
- Livan Hernandez - The Nats brought him back for a reason. That reason is probably more a mentor's role than anything, but it's hard to imagine either Maya or Detwiler making the rotation over a proven .500 starter. Livo is a good bet to make the rotation to start the year.
- Yunesky Maya - Maya will be an interesting decision. The Nats may go with a 4-man rotation to start the year, as they've done in recent seasons. However, with the bullpen a little more set than last year, they may decide to go with a 5-man rotation. If they do, and no other players are signed before Opening Day, Maya will probably be the guy.
- Ross Detwiler - Oh Rossy D, what has happened to you? He's been hurt, and when he wasn't hurt, he hasn't looked good. To make things worse, World Series Champ Madison Bumgarner and NL Rookie of the Year Runner-Up Jason Heyward were selected after Detwiler in that draft. But hindsight is 20/20 folks, and we're stuck with Ross for now. We'll see how much patience the front office has left as they set a rotation and bullpen for 2011.
The one thing that this category lacks is once clear, front-line starter. Stephen Strasburg was supposed to be that guy, but in the mean time, GM Mike Rizzo isn't wrong in actively pursuing a true Opening Day starter. There's some definite work to be done here.
Bullpen:
These guys are are a lock to make the 'pen this year. I hope that Bally can have some influence on the others to get an awesome mustache growing contest going out there. More than anything, I want them to have the kind of success that they had last year.
- Collin Balester - The man, the 'stache, the legend. Balester really figured out his command in 2010, and I look forward to another strong season from the power reliever.
- Sean Burnett - The lefty specialist. Burnett came into his own in 2010, and eventually became Manager Jim Riggleman's go-to guy from the 'pen.
- Tyler Clippard - The flailing approach and devastating change up. Clippard started out 2010 with a bang, but struggled a little in the stretch.
- Doug Slaten - The other lefty. Slaten is the true lefty specialist here, not Burnett. He plays an important role in the bullpen.
- Craig Stammen - Starter turned long reliever. It still remains to be seen if Stammen can remain a part of the big league club in the bullpen after his not-so stellar attempt to be a starter. I'm hoping for the best, but it probably wouldn't hurt to go grab another Miguel Batista-like reliever.
- Drew Storen - The closer. Storen also made an appearance on the red carpet Monday night for the premiere of Owen Wilson's new flick where he's a Nationals reliever. I'm not ashamed to admit I'll see that movie just because of Nationals reference.
Infield:
- C: Wilson Ramos/Ivan Rodriguez/Jesus Flores - The first two will be a strong until Flores is ready to give it a shot, and who knows when that will be. For his sake, I hope it's before 2011 comes to a close.
- 1B: Vacant - This is the question. A huge offensive hole has been torn in the Nationals lineup with the loss of Adam Dunn. How they fill it here could dictate a lot about the future.
- 2B: Danny Espinosa - Espinosa started out with a bang in 2010, only to flounder as the season came to a close. Hopefully he can adjust to opposing pitchers figuring him out, and the NL East's pitching didn't get any easier this morning (see: Lee, Cliff)
- SS: Ian Desmond - Desmond had the opposite experience from his middle infielding partner. He got hot at the end of the year, and looked like he could be a real rock in the lineup in the future. His defense still seriously needs help, though that improved as well as the season progressed.
- 3B: Ryan Zimmerman - Top 3 3rd basemen in all of baseball right now. Wanna argue with me? I dare you. Zimmerman may be the most underrated infielder in baseball though, and the Nationals better get on signing him to a contract extension quickly, I'm thinking 20 years.
Outfield:
- LF: Josh Willingham - This may change in the coming weeks. With a guy like Jayson Werth coming into the picture for the next 7 years, Willingham's worth (no pun intended) may have just plummeted to the front office.
- CF: Nyjer Morgan - Seems that Manager Jim Riggleman and Rizzo are pretty committed to give T. Plush another shot as the starter in center. If Morgan can produce like he did in 2009 and the second half of 2010, he'll probably earn that role for the season.
- RF: Jayson "The Beard" Werth - We won't go into this much, because there's somewhere around 3 million posts across the internet about Werth's arrival in DC. We will say that he has the potential to unseat Morgan should he falter, giving other guys the chance to succeed as starters at this position.
So this is our summary of what would happen if the Nats season started today. They could do worse, but they could also do a lot better. How Mike Rizzo and Co. finish up the offseason will dictate what kind of year this team has. If they can pick up a respectable starter and a good bat at 1st base, the team has a chance to best their 69 wins in 2010. Though the addition of Cliff Lee to the NL East again makes that even more difficult. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt... Can you imagine facing that rotation 18 times in 2011? Well, you're going to have to.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Too Much Rizzo Criticism
As I watch and listen to the national baseball people out there, there seems to be a common theme about Jayson Werth's long term signing. "Where was he going?! What was he thinking?!" Except this time, it's toward Nats GM Mike Rizzo, not worst-juicer-ever Nook Logan.
Most national baseball writers and reporters out there forgot the Washington Nationals were an actual baseball team, save Opening Day 2005 and June 8, 2010, so I find it particularly comical that most are getting so upset about the Jayson Werth signing.
The Nationals are in a situation similar to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Kansas City Royals, and the Baltimore Orioles. They've become a joke, and jokes don't sign big name guys. At least that's what the trend has been, especially in the Pirates case. You have teams that don't contend year after year because they deal away their best talent.
Mike Rizzo, though, is trying to buck the trend, and the Lerners look like they're at least going to let him try. Spending $126 million over 7 years for a guy that is 32 years old is a monumental chunk of change. There's no doubt. But I firmly believe it was the right chunk of change to spend.
Rizzo even admitted that if the Nationals were better, they wouldn't have had to offer Jayson Werth the kind of money they did. But they aren't good, and so they have to overpay to get the talent. There are an unbelievable number of people out there who simply don't seem to get that.
People can argue all they want about which guy would have been right for the Nats, and why they didn't go after Carl Crawford instead, or why not Cliff Lee (although it may be Cliff Lee... apparently)? But Mike Rizzo is being honest with himself, honest with his ownership, and honest with the fans, when he says the Nats aren't any good, and he's trying to do something about it by digging into the Lerner's very deep pockets.
Several people at the meetings are reporting that the Nats truly aren't done yet, so let's see what they do over the rest of the week before calling this the craziest move of all time.
Most national baseball writers and reporters out there forgot the Washington Nationals were an actual baseball team, save Opening Day 2005 and June 8, 2010, so I find it particularly comical that most are getting so upset about the Jayson Werth signing.
The Nationals are in a situation similar to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Kansas City Royals, and the Baltimore Orioles. They've become a joke, and jokes don't sign big name guys. At least that's what the trend has been, especially in the Pirates case. You have teams that don't contend year after year because they deal away their best talent.
Mike Rizzo, though, is trying to buck the trend, and the Lerners look like they're at least going to let him try. Spending $126 million over 7 years for a guy that is 32 years old is a monumental chunk of change. There's no doubt. But I firmly believe it was the right chunk of change to spend.
Rizzo even admitted that if the Nationals were better, they wouldn't have had to offer Jayson Werth the kind of money they did. But they aren't good, and so they have to overpay to get the talent. There are an unbelievable number of people out there who simply don't seem to get that.
People can argue all they want about which guy would have been right for the Nats, and why they didn't go after Carl Crawford instead, or why not Cliff Lee (although it may be Cliff Lee... apparently)? But Mike Rizzo is being honest with himself, honest with his ownership, and honest with the fans, when he says the Nats aren't any good, and he's trying to do something about it by digging into the Lerner's very deep pockets.
Several people at the meetings are reporting that the Nats truly aren't done yet, so let's see what they do over the rest of the week before calling this the craziest move of all time.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Jayson Werth over Adam Dunn: An Analysis
Major League Baseball's winter meetings hadn't even officially begun when the Nats started the meetings off with a huge bang by signing Jayson Werth to a 7-year, $126 million contract. This blockbuster deal will keep Jayson in a Nationals uniform until he turns 39. That's a long, long time. Especially when the Nats would have had to offer Adam Dunn fewer years and less money per year. So, was it the right call?
Initially, if you look at some generic stats, you could very easily lose it if you're a die hard Nats fan. Adam Dunn basically guarantees you at least 38 home runs every year, while Jayson Werth has never hit more than 36, and even that was probably an anomaly. Remember, Werth was hitting in Citizens Bank Park in half of his games played in the last 4 years. Furthermore, Dunn knocked in more than 100 runs in each of the last 3 years, while Werth has gotten 67, 99, and 85 in the last three seasons, respectively.
But we have to look beyond those numbers and dig into some other stats to find some of Werth's true value. Let's look at them in bullet-form. (If you're looking for a Sabermetric analysis, you're not gonna get it here. We're looking at straight up production.):
Initially, if you look at some generic stats, you could very easily lose it if you're a die hard Nats fan. Adam Dunn basically guarantees you at least 38 home runs every year, while Jayson Werth has never hit more than 36, and even that was probably an anomaly. Remember, Werth was hitting in Citizens Bank Park in half of his games played in the last 4 years. Furthermore, Dunn knocked in more than 100 runs in each of the last 3 years, while Werth has gotten 67, 99, and 85 in the last three seasons, respectively.
But we have to look beyond those numbers and dig into some other stats to find some of Werth's true value. Let's look at them in bullet-form. (If you're looking for a Sabermetric analysis, you're not gonna get it here. We're looking at straight up production.):
- Werth is capable of hitting near .300 (see partial season 2007 and 2010) while Adam Dunn hasn't hit above .270 in his entire career.
- Werth has stolen 20 bases in 2 of the last 3 years while Dunn hasn't stolen a single base since 2008.
- Jayson Werth hit 26 doubles in 2009 and 46 in 2010, while Dunn hit 29 in 2009, and 36 in 2010.
- While Dunn hits a lot of home runs, Werth's OPS in 2010 was .921 vs. Dunn's .892. Very comparable numbers.
- Werth has scored 73, 98, and 106 runs in the last 3 years, while Dunn has scored 79, 81, and 85 in those same seasons.
Sure, Werth's higher runs scored numbers are partially (mostly?) due to the fact that he played for the Phillies, while Dunn played for the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Reds during the same time. But you certainly can't argue with the stolen bases that will put Werth in scoring position more often, or with his ability to make extra base hits with his speed, or with the higher OPS last year.
Other factors besides offensive prowess certainly played into the decision, although the people over at FanGraphs believe that Werth and Dunn are far more equal offensively than people believe. Jayson Werth is clearly a better defensive player than Dunn. Though I am one of those that believe that Dunn was a significantly improved defensive player in 2010, you can't rule out the fact that Werth is a Gold Glove caliber outfielder. In 2009, Werth had the highest range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game of any right fielder in the National League. He has the kind of range to be a center fielder when a certain #1 overall draft pick is ready to come to the majors (spoiler: it's Bryce Harper).
Werth and Dunn are essentially the same age (Dunn is 6 months younger), so why offer him the long term deal and not Dunn? Size certainly played a factor. Adam Dunn is football player sized. He weighs nearly 300 lbs., which has a negative affect on a players physical ability over time. Werth, at 6'5" and only 220 lbs., is at a weight that will give his body more longevity in the game than the Big Donkey. He is more nimble, which gives the team a significant offensive and defensive advantage. Despite their similar ages, Werth is simply a younger player.
Do these thing justify 3 more years than Dunn was asking for? Does it justify the average of $18 million/year that Werth will be earning? It's truly impossible to know until he hits year 4 of this deal. But one thing is for sure, for the next 4 years while Jayson Werth plays in DC and Adam Dunn hits in Chi-Town, there will be endless comparisons in their stats. I'm thrilled with the sign, all things considered, and I think that a Zimmerman, Werth, Willingham 3-4-5 provides a different kind of punch, that's not necessarily bad. Now if the Nats now take this opportunity to unload the Hammer, we'll be having a different conversation right here on Capitol Baseball.
The great part about all this for Nats fans is that Mike Rizzo said "We're not finished," and he may have meant it according to Mark Zuckerman in his post this morning. The Nationals will be covered in the national sports media for the next few days, which is almost never bad. Keep checking in with Nats Insider for the breaking news and here at Capitol Baseball for analysis of any future moves.Sunday, December 5, 2010
Nationals Sign Jayson Werth [update]
Ken Rosenthal and Bill Ladson are reporting that the Washington Nationals have signed former Philadelphia Phillies RF Jayson Werth. The contract appears to be a 7 year deal at $126 million for the 31 year old.
I'm not going to say I told you so, but I TOLD YOU SO! I've been telling people for months that if the Nationals failed to sign Adam Dunn, they would go for Jayson Werth. Nats GM Mike Rizzo has been looking for a viable option in right field for more than a year now, and with Dunn gone, it opens a significant amount of money to sign an excellent offensive and defensive right fielder to a long term deal. The platoon in right field in 2010 of Michael Morse and Roger Bernadina will be no more in 2011 after this signing.
While Werth doesn't put up the power numbers that Dunn is capable of, it still provides significant cushion behind Ryan Zimmerman after losing the protection of Dunn in the batting order. And he is a significant defensive upgrade on the field, as Werth has a great arm and outstanding range.
This long-term signing raises some of the same issues that a long-term Adam Dunn contract would have had, since they're both in their 30s. But Werth's contract is 3 years longer than Dunn was looking for. I'm sure many people will be questioning that move in the weeks to come.
We'll dig into the numbers and whether this is a good signing throughout the week (spoiler: I think it is), because this is simply going to be a huge story in the coming days. It's about time folks, the Nationals have made national baseball news this off-season. Stick with Capitol Baseball throughout the week for more.
[Update - 5:17PM]
Nats will lose their 2nd round pick, as Jayson Werth is a Type-A Free Agent. The Nats 1st round pick was protected due to their record being in the bottom 60% of the league. Though with Dunn signing a contract with the White Sox the Nationals will still have 3 picks in the top 35-40.
[Update - 5:17PM]
Nats will lose their 2nd round pick, as Jayson Werth is a Type-A Free Agent. The Nats 1st round pick was protected due to their record being in the bottom 60% of the league. Though with Dunn signing a contract with the White Sox the Nationals will still have 3 picks in the top 35-40.
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