We are going to do a little blind exercise about the performance of two Nats pitchers. Lets look at some 2010 2nd-half stats, as well as some Spring Training stats, and then decide which pitcher you would rather have.
Pitcher 1 - 24 years-old
2nd-half 2010 - 17 games. 21.0 IP. 28 K. 11 BB. 2.57 ERA. 1.24 WHIP. .203 AVG Against. 12.0 K/9.
Spring Training - 11.1 IP. 11 K. 2 BB. 7 H. 3 R. 2 ER. 1.59 ERA.
Pitcher 2 - 23 years-old
2nd-half 2010 - 30 games. 29.2 IP. 32 K. 11 BB. 4.55 ERA. 1.32 WHIP. .252 AVG Against. 9.7 K/9.
Spring Training - 11.1 IP. 11 K. 2 BB. 24 H. 24 R. 16 ER. 11.12 ERA.
One of these players is on the Nats Opening Day Roster, and one is not. If you guessed Pitcher 2 was the player traveling north, you would be correct.
By now you have probably figured out that Pitcher 1 is Collin Balester and Pitcher 2 is Drew Storen.
I am not saying that Drew Storen doesn't deserve to be there with the big club, I am simply pointing out that it seems as though the decision for Storen is an emotional one as opposed to a statistical choice.
When I started researching this topic, I found several things that kind of surprised me. First, there is only a 1 year age difference between the pitchers, despite Balester being drafted in 2004 and Storen being drafted in 2009. Second, I didn't expect to see the huge difference in 2010 stats; I mean there is some huge differences there. Third, as relievers, Balester's ERA is a full point lower than Storen's; though with an admittedly small sample size for Balester.
I am well aware that the reasoning for sending Balester down to AAA is that it was purely based on the fact that he had an option. Where I find issue is that, Drew Storen still has several options remaining and its a lot easier to figure out potential issues in AAA as opposed to the Braves and Phillies.
So, I'll leave it to you. Would you rather have Storen with his potential? or Balester and his results?
Showing posts with label 25 in 25. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 25 in 25. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
25 in 25: Summing up the project and Laynce Nix (#25)
Tomorrow, we're all headed to Nationals Park for Opening Day. Over the last 25 days, we've guessed the Nationals Opening Day 25-man roster one day and one player at a time. Today, we conclude that list thrilled to say that we were 100% right on all of our picks. (I know, we're shocked, too.) To be honest, the Cora and Nix picks were made after the Nats already released the lineups. But the other 23 we got right on our own, and we feel pretty good about that.
But on to the completion of this great rundown: Laynce Nix.
Why?: Because Riggs and Rizzo said so. But let's talk about how he got there.
Entering camp this season, Nix seemed to have almost no chance to make the Nationals Opening Day roster. There were at least 6 guys (Werth, Morse, Morgan, Ankiel, Nix, Bernadina, and no, I don't even count Stairs as an OF) vying for at most 4 spots. With Werth, Morse, and seemingly Morgan almost guaranteed spots, that left a spot for one more. Most assumed it'd be either Ankiel or Bernie. Then Morgan got traded, Ankiel became the Opening Day CF, and Bernie got sent down. Enter Nix.
We're not going to spend a lot of time making a strong case for Nix, but some of his numbers are worth highlighting. Especially his numbers in Cincinnati last season. Granted, these were an anomaly for his career, but it's the most recent numbers and worth noting.
Cincinnati 2010: .291/.350/.455
Spring Training 2011: .243/.310/.459
What to expect?: If Nix can replicate his 2010 Cincinnati numbers, the Nats will have one heck of a back up outfielder on their hands. When starting OFs Morse, Ankiel, and Werth need days off, expect the lefty Nix to step in against right-handed pitching. On days where the starting OFs need a day off and the Nats are facing a lefty, we'll see Jerry Hairson, Jr. more often.
Expect Nix to be nothing but a back up all year, as Bernadina will likely be called up in the case of an OF injury, but the Nats might try to get Nix enough at-bats to become good trade bait if he's having a good season.
Monday, March 28, 2011
25 in 25: Matt Stairs (#23)
In 3 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today, we take at look at a Canadian with more than 14 years of service time: Matt Stairs.
Why?: To be completely honest with you, we're not entirely sure. Jim Riggleman has all but assured fans and writers that Stairs will be part of the Opening Day lineup this season. As if the Nats don't get enough pop from the middle of the lineup with Werth, Zimmerman, LaRoche, Morse, and Ankiel, the Nats Manager feels the need to have a guy on the team that has absolutely no redeeming defensive qualities.
To be sure, Matt Stairs is a beast of a pinch hitter and will act as a good player/hitting coach. Hailing most recently from the Phillies and Padres, Stairs continues to crank home runs as a pinch hitter. But that is literally all he is: a pinch hitter. With a Nats team with a heaping pile of offense already that's trying to concentrate on defense, we don't quite get the commitment to adding Stairs to the 25-man roster.
Also of note, Stairs started his career with the Expos back in 1992, so I guess there's some nostalgia there to be had.... I'm not buying into that though.
What to expect?: Stairs will do what he does: hit lots of home runs in not a lot of at bats. We all know Jim Riggleman's affinity for double switches and playing the manager's mind game, so it's possible that Stairs could get a lot of pinch hit opportunities.
Expect Matt Stairs to hit between 6 and 10 home runs and having a batting average below .250 in about 100 at-bats. Let's hope his presence as a proven professional hitter will help the Nats hitters who will be with the club for the long haul.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
25 in 25: Brian Broderick (#22)
In 4 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today's player was not on anyone's radar at the beginning of Grapefruit league action, Brian Broderick.
Why? Before we get into the stats, the first thing that we must know about Brian Broderick is that he was one of the Nationals first-round picks in the 2010 Rule 5 draft. What that essentially means is that if the Nats don't keep Broderick on the Major League roster all season long, they have to send him back to his original team (the Cardinals). I would venture a guess and say that 3/4 of the players drafted in the Rule 5 draft eventually get returned, or re-acquired by the drafting team via trade. It is pretty rare for a player to stay on the roster all year long.
That being said, Broderick has played his way onto the roster, his Rule 5-ness not withstanding. He has been one of the best pitchers in camp, putting up an absolutely minuscule 0.66 ERA in 13.2 innings of action. In addition to the single run he has given up, he has only given up 7 hits while striking out 5 and walking just 2. Broderick deserves to be on the roster.
What should you expect? I've got the be honest here, I have absolutely no clue what you should expect. Looking at his minor league numbers, Broderick is a rather pedestrian pitcher, owning a career ERA of 4.06 and WHIP of 1.29. This could just be a case of someone having a fantastic month, or it could be a case of a 6' 6" pitcher finally becoming comfortable on the mound. My guess is for the latter, considering that in 17 games at AA Springfield he went 11-2 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. We will see if his stuff can work here in the Majors as opposed to AA. I look forward to seeing what the kid can accomplish.
Today's player was not on anyone's radar at the beginning of Grapefruit league action, Brian Broderick.
Why? Before we get into the stats, the first thing that we must know about Brian Broderick is that he was one of the Nationals first-round picks in the 2010 Rule 5 draft. What that essentially means is that if the Nats don't keep Broderick on the Major League roster all season long, they have to send him back to his original team (the Cardinals). I would venture a guess and say that 3/4 of the players drafted in the Rule 5 draft eventually get returned, or re-acquired by the drafting team via trade. It is pretty rare for a player to stay on the roster all year long.
That being said, Broderick has played his way onto the roster, his Rule 5-ness not withstanding. He has been one of the best pitchers in camp, putting up an absolutely minuscule 0.66 ERA in 13.2 innings of action. In addition to the single run he has given up, he has only given up 7 hits while striking out 5 and walking just 2. Broderick deserves to be on the roster.
What should you expect? I've got the be honest here, I have absolutely no clue what you should expect. Looking at his minor league numbers, Broderick is a rather pedestrian pitcher, owning a career ERA of 4.06 and WHIP of 1.29. This could just be a case of someone having a fantastic month, or it could be a case of a 6' 6" pitcher finally becoming comfortable on the mound. My guess is for the latter, considering that in 17 games at AA Springfield he went 11-2 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. We will see if his stuff can work here in the Majors as opposed to AA. I look forward to seeing what the kid can accomplish.
Friday, March 25, 2011
25 in 25: Jerry Hairston (#20)
In 6 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today's edition is 13-year veteran and 2nd generation MLBer, Jerry Hairston.
Why? Off the bat the first draw for a player like Hairston is his veteran presence in the clubhouse. Next up is his versatility, over his career he has seen time at every single position except for pitcher and catcher. It has already been announced by Riggleman that the switch-hitting Hairston will be the starting Center Fielder against left-handed pitchers; as Bernadina, Morgan, and Ankiel are all left-handed. His leadership, attitude, and versatility has earned him a spot on this team.
What should you expect? Quality leadership and above-average defense in the field. This is, once again, a defensive-minded ballclub under Mike Rizzo, and Hairston fills that role to a T. He has posted a very high UZR in every position except for 1B and 3B, where I think we are covered with Adam LaRoche and Gold Glover, Ryan Zimmerman.
At the plate is another story, he will not light the world on fire by any stretch of the imagination. A career .257 hitter, Hairston has hit below that each of the past two seasons but is just three years removed from a .326 campaign in 2008. Look for something around a .260 average and .330 OBP.
Today's edition is 13-year veteran and 2nd generation MLBer, Jerry Hairston.
Why? Off the bat the first draw for a player like Hairston is his veteran presence in the clubhouse. Next up is his versatility, over his career he has seen time at every single position except for pitcher and catcher. It has already been announced by Riggleman that the switch-hitting Hairston will be the starting Center Fielder against left-handed pitchers; as Bernadina, Morgan, and Ankiel are all left-handed. His leadership, attitude, and versatility has earned him a spot on this team.
What should you expect? Quality leadership and above-average defense in the field. This is, once again, a defensive-minded ballclub under Mike Rizzo, and Hairston fills that role to a T. He has posted a very high UZR in every position except for 1B and 3B, where I think we are covered with Adam LaRoche and Gold Glover, Ryan Zimmerman.
At the plate is another story, he will not light the world on fire by any stretch of the imagination. A career .257 hitter, Hairston has hit below that each of the past two seasons but is just three years removed from a .326 campaign in 2008. Look for something around a .260 average and .330 OBP.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
25 in 25: Tom Gorzelanny (#18)
In 8 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today we delve into a former Cubbie, Tom Gorzelanny.
Why? The Nats traded two of their top 30 draft picks for the right-hander in the offseason, expecting him to be the 5th starter. This trade was met with a bit of skepticism throughout NatsTown, wondering why we were trading a (Supplemental) First-Round selection for a mediocre pitcher that we didn't necessarily need. Initially, it seemed as if the Cubs took the Nats to school on this trade, though I've warmed to it recently.
Being a victim of a numbers game in Chicago, Gorzelanny joined another challenge in Viera; too many pitchers, too few spots. His spring started late due to illness, but he has shown that he can be effective. Rizzo and Riggleman had in their minds that Gorzelanny was going to be in the rotation, and come March 31st he will be there. But for how long.
What should you expect? Don't expect a 10 win season. I still don't see Gorzelanny being a good fit in Washington, especially with McCatty's "new" philosophy of throwing strikes. In 2010, Tom had a 4.49 BB/9, not a great number, and even worse considering that its not even close to his career worst (5.98 in 2008). The ability to strike batters out is great, but even that number went down by more than 1 K/9 last year. It should be noted that his K/BB ratio is even this Spring, 8 K and 8 BB.
I see Gorzelanny winning about 8 or 9 games with a +4 ERA, a 4.50 BB/9, a 7.5 K/9, and about 23 starts. All contingent on him staying in the Nats rotation all year, which I am not convinced he will with Detwiler and Maya nipping at his heels...
Today we delve into a former Cubbie, Tom Gorzelanny.
Why? The Nats traded two of their top 30 draft picks for the right-hander in the offseason, expecting him to be the 5th starter. This trade was met with a bit of skepticism throughout NatsTown, wondering why we were trading a (Supplemental) First-Round selection for a mediocre pitcher that we didn't necessarily need. Initially, it seemed as if the Cubs took the Nats to school on this trade, though I've warmed to it recently.
Being a victim of a numbers game in Chicago, Gorzelanny joined another challenge in Viera; too many pitchers, too few spots. His spring started late due to illness, but he has shown that he can be effective. Rizzo and Riggleman had in their minds that Gorzelanny was going to be in the rotation, and come March 31st he will be there. But for how long.
What should you expect? Don't expect a 10 win season. I still don't see Gorzelanny being a good fit in Washington, especially with McCatty's "new" philosophy of throwing strikes. In 2010, Tom had a 4.49 BB/9, not a great number, and even worse considering that its not even close to his career worst (5.98 in 2008). The ability to strike batters out is great, but even that number went down by more than 1 K/9 last year. It should be noted that his K/BB ratio is even this Spring, 8 K and 8 BB.
I see Gorzelanny winning about 8 or 9 games with a +4 ERA, a 4.50 BB/9, a 7.5 K/9, and about 23 starts. All contingent on him staying in the Nats rotation all year, which I am not convinced he will with Detwiler and Maya nipping at his heels...
Monday, March 21, 2011
25 in 25: Todd Coffey (#16)
In 10 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today's 25-man prospective is sprinting in from the bullpen as we speak, Todd Coffey.
Why? He has been there before. He has pitched in the high pressure situations and performed at a high level, something no other member of the Nats bullpen can currently say. Released after a down year in 2010, Coffey is just one year removed from a 2.90 ERA and a 7 K/9 average. His 1.6 WAR over his career is solid for a reliever.
What should you expect? You should expect a fan favorite. Who doesn't love seeing a 6' 4" 250 lbs. pitcher sprint in from the bullpen? I expect this year to be a bounce back year for the 31 year old reliever, as he suffered from a nasty thumb injury for several months last year. Depending on what happens with the 9th inning, Coffey could be called upon to close games as well, providing even more value. I think we could see Coffey return to a sub-3.00 ERA while keeping his 2010 K/9 ratio of 8+ K/9.
Today's 25-man prospective is sprinting in from the bullpen as we speak, Todd Coffey.
Why? He has been there before. He has pitched in the high pressure situations and performed at a high level, something no other member of the Nats bullpen can currently say. Released after a down year in 2010, Coffey is just one year removed from a 2.90 ERA and a 7 K/9 average. His 1.6 WAR over his career is solid for a reliever.
What should you expect? You should expect a fan favorite. Who doesn't love seeing a 6' 4" 250 lbs. pitcher sprint in from the bullpen? I expect this year to be a bounce back year for the 31 year old reliever, as he suffered from a nasty thumb injury for several months last year. Depending on what happens with the 9th inning, Coffey could be called upon to close games as well, providing even more value. I think we could see Coffey return to a sub-3.00 ERA while keeping his 2010 K/9 ratio of 8+ K/9.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
25 in 25: Michael Morse (#12)
In 14 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today's entry is the new starting LF for the ballclub, deservedly so.
Why? His entire career, Michael Morse has hit the baseball. In Seattle, he hit. When he came over in that glorious trade that sent Ryan Langerhans to the pacific northwest, he hit. And with the Nationals last year, in replacement duty, all he did was hit the ball. For some unknown reason though, he sat as well. Someone must've had dirty pictures of the slugger because as soon as he got hot, he sat the bench for 3 days.
Aside from all that, when he was in the lineup he was able to perform admirably. Last year in just 98 games (a crime btw), he hit .289 with 41 RBI and 15 HR. Spread out to 162 games thats about 75 RBI and 28 HR, which is more than we were getting with Josh Willingham for what its worth. His OPS was .890 and his OPS+ was 133 (over 100 is good).
What should we expect? Over his 6 year MLB career, Morse has a 162-game average of 91 RBI, 21 HR, with a .291 AVG and an .810 OPS. All of his potential rests with the opportunity given to him, IE will he be given a fair shake. If Morse has the chance to stay in the position for any extended period of time, he should be able to throw up some great numbers.
Morse's most-likely spot will be in the 6 hole, after LaRoche, and he should have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs. I see him hitting somewhere between .290-.300 with 22-25 HR and 85+ RBIs. We are witness to the second-coming of Jayson Werth.
Today's entry is the new starting LF for the ballclub, deservedly so.
Why? His entire career, Michael Morse has hit the baseball. In Seattle, he hit. When he came over in that glorious trade that sent Ryan Langerhans to the pacific northwest, he hit. And with the Nationals last year, in replacement duty, all he did was hit the ball. For some unknown reason though, he sat as well. Someone must've had dirty pictures of the slugger because as soon as he got hot, he sat the bench for 3 days.
Aside from all that, when he was in the lineup he was able to perform admirably. Last year in just 98 games (a crime btw), he hit .289 with 41 RBI and 15 HR. Spread out to 162 games thats about 75 RBI and 28 HR, which is more than we were getting with Josh Willingham for what its worth. His OPS was .890 and his OPS+ was 133 (over 100 is good).
What should we expect? Over his 6 year MLB career, Morse has a 162-game average of 91 RBI, 21 HR, with a .291 AVG and an .810 OPS. All of his potential rests with the opportunity given to him, IE will he be given a fair shake. If Morse has the chance to stay in the position for any extended period of time, he should be able to throw up some great numbers.
Morse's most-likely spot will be in the 6 hole, after LaRoche, and he should have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs. I see him hitting somewhere between .290-.300 with 22-25 HR and 85+ RBIs. We are witness to the second-coming of Jayson Werth.
Monday, March 14, 2011
25 in 25: Ian Desmond (#9)
In 16 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today's featured player is Ian Desmond, the incumbent SS.
Why?: As a September call-up in 2009, Ian Desmond showed the Nats brass that all the years of hype were well deserved. He hit for average, hit for power, and provided sparkling defense. During last years Spring Training, Desmond won the starting job over long-time cog, Cristian Guzman.
The year progressed and Desmond (at times) flashed brilliance in the field, and provided veteran-level leadership in the dugout. At other times, his defense was less than stellar, as he had a MLB leading 34 errors. It is not uncommon for error rates to drastically decrease after a shortstops rookie season, and many expect Desmond to keep that trend going. He has earned the starting job, for now at least, with his leadership and potential.
What you should expect?: First and foremost, you should expect Desmond's error rate to go way down, by at least 10. 24 Errors isn't great, but it is far better than 34.
Offensively, things are going to be a bit different from last year. Starting the 2010 season, Desmond was resigned to hitting 7 and 8 in the lineup, giving him breaking pitches, and few chances to knock in runs or score runs. After a mid-season trade of 2 hitter, Guzman again, Desi was bumped up to the top of the order in his place. In that spot, he hit .326 with an .858 OPS, over .050 and .125 (respectively) points higher than his career average; and 186 AB is a pretty good sample size.
I'm predicting a break-out year for the young Shortstop. .300 AVG, .850 OPS, 18-20 HR, 90+ Runs, 80 RBI. And yes, far fewer errors.
Today's featured player is Ian Desmond, the incumbent SS.
Why?: As a September call-up in 2009, Ian Desmond showed the Nats brass that all the years of hype were well deserved. He hit for average, hit for power, and provided sparkling defense. During last years Spring Training, Desmond won the starting job over long-time cog, Cristian Guzman.
The year progressed and Desmond (at times) flashed brilliance in the field, and provided veteran-level leadership in the dugout. At other times, his defense was less than stellar, as he had a MLB leading 34 errors. It is not uncommon for error rates to drastically decrease after a shortstops rookie season, and many expect Desmond to keep that trend going. He has earned the starting job, for now at least, with his leadership and potential.
What you should expect?: First and foremost, you should expect Desmond's error rate to go way down, by at least 10. 24 Errors isn't great, but it is far better than 34.
Offensively, things are going to be a bit different from last year. Starting the 2010 season, Desmond was resigned to hitting 7 and 8 in the lineup, giving him breaking pitches, and few chances to knock in runs or score runs. After a mid-season trade of 2 hitter, Guzman again, Desi was bumped up to the top of the order in his place. In that spot, he hit .326 with an .858 OPS, over .050 and .125 (respectively) points higher than his career average; and 186 AB is a pretty good sample size.
I'm predicting a break-out year for the young Shortstop. .300 AVG, .850 OPS, 18-20 HR, 90+ Runs, 80 RBI. And yes, far fewer errors.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
25 in 25: Tyler Clippard (#8)
In 18 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today we discuss, statistically, one of the Nats best pitchers in 2010, Tyler Clippard.
Why?: In 2010, Tyler Clippard lead the Nationals pitching staff in wins... despite being a reliever... Granted, some of these wins were gimmies, coming off of ties or big offensive rallys. It still says something about the pitcher, you have to be having a good season for those breaks to roll your way. Pitching in a team-high 78 games last year, Clippard formed part of the amazing duo, Clip n' Save, with Matt Capps. The two combined to close the door on over 25 games, without much fuss.
Clippard posted a 1.4 WAR, 3.07 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP in 2010. After leading the Nats in most pitching categories, many thought that Clippard was going to be the Nats representative in Anaheim for the All-Star Game, an honor which went to his partner in crime, Matt Capps.
What should you expect?: A slight regression is probably in Goggles future, but I'm not so sure. Fatigue will definitely become an issue, considering that before his 78 game performance in 2010, his previous high was 41 games in 2009. Contrary to that however is the fact that his stats that determine potential for repeat are solid. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate was only 0.11 higher than his ERA, a sure indication that it wasn't a fluky performance. Also, his BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) was the highest it has been in his entire career, meaning that with a more solid defense his numbers will actually improve drastically.
Clippard will once again lead the team in appearances, and may even have a prolonged stint as closer, depending on the development of Drew Storen. His ERA should hover around the 2.50-3.00 mark, while his strikeout numbers will stay in the 9+ K/9 range. Hopefully, no offense to Clippard, he will not lead the team in wins next year...
Today we discuss, statistically, one of the Nats best pitchers in 2010, Tyler Clippard.
Why?: In 2010, Tyler Clippard lead the Nationals pitching staff in wins... despite being a reliever... Granted, some of these wins were gimmies, coming off of ties or big offensive rallys. It still says something about the pitcher, you have to be having a good season for those breaks to roll your way. Pitching in a team-high 78 games last year, Clippard formed part of the amazing duo, Clip n' Save, with Matt Capps. The two combined to close the door on over 25 games, without much fuss.
Clippard posted a 1.4 WAR, 3.07 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP in 2010. After leading the Nats in most pitching categories, many thought that Clippard was going to be the Nats representative in Anaheim for the All-Star Game, an honor which went to his partner in crime, Matt Capps.
What should you expect?: A slight regression is probably in Goggles future, but I'm not so sure. Fatigue will definitely become an issue, considering that before his 78 game performance in 2010, his previous high was 41 games in 2009. Contrary to that however is the fact that his stats that determine potential for repeat are solid. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate was only 0.11 higher than his ERA, a sure indication that it wasn't a fluky performance. Also, his BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) was the highest it has been in his entire career, meaning that with a more solid defense his numbers will actually improve drastically.
Clippard will once again lead the team in appearances, and may even have a prolonged stint as closer, depending on the development of Drew Storen. His ERA should hover around the 2.50-3.00 mark, while his strikeout numbers will stay in the 9+ K/9 range. Hopefully, no offense to Clippard, he will not lead the team in wins next year...
Saturday, March 12, 2011
25 in 25: Sean Burnett (#7)
In 19 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Today, we're adding Sean Burnett to our list of 25-man roster locks.
Why?: After starting his career as a starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2004, Burnett disappeared into the minors for the next 3 seasons. After 2 seasons of failed starting in AAA Indianapolis, Burnett was converted into a bullpen role. After posting good numbers in Pittsburgh in 2009, he came to DC and lived up to his average expectations. But in 2010, he exploded. He appeared in 73 games and posted an unbelievable 2.14 ERA. The success of the 'pen revolved around Burnett as the season progressed, making him an indispensable part of that group.
What to expect?: This lefty specialist who had trouble getting lefties out in 2010 has little to prove after an otherwise outstanding season. Burnett should easily land a few saves this year, perhaps even in double digits as he shares the duties with Tyler Clippard and closer-of-the-future Drew Storen. It's also a pretty fair assumption that Burnett will figure out how to be a little bit better against lefties in 2011.
My bold prediction: Sean will wear his hat straight at some point this season. Count on it.
Friday, March 11, 2011
25 in 25: Jordan Zimmermann (#6)
In 20 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Next up on our list is a quality "cold weather kid" once crowned as "future ace", now labeled "future #2", Jordan Zimmermann.
Why?: Now 19 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Zimmermann should be settling in to his pre-surgery abilities. Considering the fact that he was able to return to MLB action in a little over a year, Zimmermann is more than ready to be a part of a Big League rotation.
When on, the Wisconsin-native has the ability to be one of the leagues premier strikeout pitchers, racking up an 8.75 K/9 in his Major League career. In addition to possessing strikeout stuff, Zimmermann has a very heavy sinker that will keep the ball on the ground. This is the year for Zimmermann to show the team that he is ready to step in to his slotted position as #2 starter, eventually behind Strasburg.
What should you expect?: We can expect that this is the year where he finally makes the leap. Its time for him to show the league what Rizzo saw when he went up to Wisconsin-Whitewater to watch a kid no one had ever heard of. Having an innings limit, he will only pitch about 150-160 innings this year, good for about 20-25 starts.
Depending on the type of run support he gets, I expect that Zimmermann will win 10 games this year. Aside from the strikeout potential, his high Ground Ball Percentage (45.0% on the career) should give our infield defense the chance to shine. These factors, as well as his future positioning make Jordan Zimmermann a near lock on our list of 25 players in 25 days.
Next up on our list is a quality "cold weather kid" once crowned as "future ace", now labeled "future #2", Jordan Zimmermann.
Why?: Now 19 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Zimmermann should be settling in to his pre-surgery abilities. Considering the fact that he was able to return to MLB action in a little over a year, Zimmermann is more than ready to be a part of a Big League rotation.
When on, the Wisconsin-native has the ability to be one of the leagues premier strikeout pitchers, racking up an 8.75 K/9 in his Major League career. In addition to possessing strikeout stuff, Zimmermann has a very heavy sinker that will keep the ball on the ground. This is the year for Zimmermann to show the team that he is ready to step in to his slotted position as #2 starter, eventually behind Strasburg.
What should you expect?: We can expect that this is the year where he finally makes the leap. Its time for him to show the league what Rizzo saw when he went up to Wisconsin-Whitewater to watch a kid no one had ever heard of. Having an innings limit, he will only pitch about 150-160 innings this year, good for about 20-25 starts.
Depending on the type of run support he gets, I expect that Zimmermann will win 10 games this year. Aside from the strikeout potential, his high Ground Ball Percentage (45.0% on the career) should give our infield defense the chance to shine. These factors, as well as his future positioning make Jordan Zimmermann a near lock on our list of 25 players in 25 days.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
25 in 25: Ivan Rodriguez (#5)
In 21 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
The seems to be little doubt that this Nats catcher will end up in the Baseball Hall of Fame. While there's no chance he'll be wearing the Curly W in Cooperstown, that doesn't downgrade him a lick in our countdown. Player #5 is Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez.
Why?: The summary of Pudge pretty much tells the story of why he'll make the club. He won't be the every day catcher like in his younger days, but his talent provides the young catchers (Ramos and Flores) with the opportunity to learn from one of the best to ever play the position. His defense is still stellar despite his advanced age, especially for a career long catcher. His presence and baseball knowledge more than make up for any offensive struggles he may experience.
What to expect?: Expect Pudge to get a good number of starts and to struggle offensively. He might start out strong like last year, but eventually age and persistent his persistent back issues will catch up to him. Expect to see more of Ramos and/or Flores as the season progresses as Pudge's body breaks down during the course of a 162 game season.
The seems to be little doubt that this Nats catcher will end up in the Baseball Hall of Fame. While there's no chance he'll be wearing the Curly W in Cooperstown, that doesn't downgrade him a lick in our countdown. Player #5 is Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez.
Why?: The summary of Pudge pretty much tells the story of why he'll make the club. He won't be the every day catcher like in his younger days, but his talent provides the young catchers (Ramos and Flores) with the opportunity to learn from one of the best to ever play the position. His defense is still stellar despite his advanced age, especially for a career long catcher. His presence and baseball knowledge more than make up for any offensive struggles he may experience.
What to expect?: Expect Pudge to get a good number of starts and to struggle offensively. He might start out strong like last year, but eventually age and persistent his persistent back issues will catch up to him. Expect to see more of Ramos and/or Flores as the season progresses as Pudge's body breaks down during the course of a 162 game season.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
25 in 25: Adam LaRoche (#4)
In 22 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Our list rolls on this morning with our starting first baseman, Adam LaRoche.
Why?: As this offseason wound down, the first base crowd became sparse, until only one remained, Mr. The Rock. Pena had gone to Chicago, Dunn and Konerko to the other side of Chicago, Lee to our Beltway neighbors, and eventually the Nats and LaRoche agreed to terms on a 2 year/$16 Million dollar contract. Now, don't get me wrong, our original analysis had LaRoche as the best fit for our ballclub; veteran presence, power, solid defense. In no way do I feel that LaRoche is simply a bridesmaid in this situation.
We are paying LaRoche extremely fair market value, considering he has produced more than $8 million/yr for 4 of the past 5 years, according to Fangraphs WAR -> Dollars conversion based on free agent value. And the one year he didn't hit $8 million, he was at $7.8.
What should you expect?: With LaRoche you should expect 150+ games, with a .270 AVG, 23-27 Homers, and 95-105 RBI.
His value is going to come from a lot more than just those middle of the order numbers. The Rock's defense has improved greatly over his career, which last year placed him as the 3rd best 1B in baseball, ahead of such names as Albert Pujols, Mark Texiera, Joey Votto, and Adrian Gonzalez. His glove is going to help our young infielders try to decrease the amount of errors, both mental and physical, because they no longer have to worry about the first baseman missing the ball.
Barring the insane signing (Pujols), the Nationals will have LaRoche, a proven leader, manning first base for the next two years. Enjoy watching Web Gems.
Our list rolls on this morning with our starting first baseman, Adam LaRoche.
Why?: As this offseason wound down, the first base crowd became sparse, until only one remained, Mr. The Rock. Pena had gone to Chicago, Dunn and Konerko to the other side of Chicago, Lee to our Beltway neighbors, and eventually the Nats and LaRoche agreed to terms on a 2 year/$16 Million dollar contract. Now, don't get me wrong, our original analysis had LaRoche as the best fit for our ballclub; veteran presence, power, solid defense. In no way do I feel that LaRoche is simply a bridesmaid in this situation.
We are paying LaRoche extremely fair market value, considering he has produced more than $8 million/yr for 4 of the past 5 years, according to Fangraphs WAR -> Dollars conversion based on free agent value. And the one year he didn't hit $8 million, he was at $7.8.
What should you expect?: With LaRoche you should expect 150+ games, with a .270 AVG, 23-27 Homers, and 95-105 RBI.
His value is going to come from a lot more than just those middle of the order numbers. The Rock's defense has improved greatly over his career, which last year placed him as the 3rd best 1B in baseball, ahead of such names as Albert Pujols, Mark Texiera, Joey Votto, and Adrian Gonzalez. His glove is going to help our young infielders try to decrease the amount of errors, both mental and physical, because they no longer have to worry about the first baseman missing the ball.
Barring the insane signing (Pujols), the Nationals will have LaRoche, a proven leader, manning first base for the next two years. Enjoy watching Web Gems.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
25 in 25: Livan Hernandez (#3)
In 23 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Now it's time to talk about the workhorse.
Why?: It seems we've been here time and time again with Livo. DC baseball fans remember nostalgically when Livan Hernandez stepped onto the mound for the Nats in 2005 at RFK Stadium, ending the 34 year drought of a baseball-free DC. In 2011, he has the chance to do it all over again.
Nats Manager Jim Riggleman has already said Livo will be the Opening Day starter, barring some crazy circumstances. What more proof do we need in order to put the veteran starter this high on our list? Doesn't hurt that some of that 2005 nostalgia might have trickled over into this spring for us...
What to Expect?: Once again, more of the same. Livan is who we think he is (Thanks Denny Green). Since 1998, Livo has only had 3 seasons that he hasn't thrown over 200 innings. Those 3 seasons were all years he spent with multiple teams. He's never thrown less than 180 innings in a full season. Ever. As in his entire career. Expect more of this from the 36-ish year old Livan.
He might not throw 95, or 90, or even 85 most of the time. But his bunny ear curveball, remarkable difference in pitch speed, and ability to locate of every one of his pitches makes him the true veteran and ultimate professional on the staff. He's essentially become a secondary pitching coach that can still put in 200 innings. Every team could be so lucky.
Monday, March 7, 2011
25 in 25: Jayson Werth (#2)
In 24 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Next up on our list is the $126 Million Dollar Man and bearded wonder, Jayson Werth.
Why?: Lets ignore the fact that we just paid the forbidden amount for the phormer Phillies heart and soul player; $126 Million, same as Zito and Wells. Werth has been an All-Star caliber player for the best team in the National League, posting a total of 15 WAR over the past 3 years. His offensive credentials certainly qualify Jayson for inclusion in the best of baseball, as he placed in the Top 10 for several major offensive categories in 2010 (OPS, OPS+, OBP, SLUG%, Runs, Runs Created, etc.)
Oh yea, and in his 8 years in the Majors he has compiled a 43.8 UZR combined, while playing all the outfield positions.
What should you expect?: There are a lot of variables that will contribute to Werth's performance in 2011 and beyond; lineup position, pitchers faced, etc. But in the short term I think we can expect all of the numbers to dip compared to the past few years.
Reasons:
- Won't get to feast off of Nationals pitching 18 times a year
- Will have to face the Four Aces up in Philadelphia probably 14 times next year
- Will he hit 3rd, 4th, or 5th?
Given the amount of money that the Lerner's shelled out for his services, many expect that Werth will hit in the 4 hole come Opening Day. But on March 1st, Riggleman said that the most likely scenario will be Werth hitting in the 3 hole, while giving Zimmerman the bulk of at bats in the clean up spot. This will mean that his Run totals will increase, but that his RBI totals will plateau or decrease due to fewer runners on for him.
In the field, I think that Werth will bounce back from a down year to post a terrific UZR while gunning out 10, or so, runners that aren't smart enough to hold when Werth has the ball.
Werth will earn his money this year.
Next up on our list is the $126 Million Dollar Man and bearded wonder, Jayson Werth.
Why?: Lets ignore the fact that we just paid the forbidden amount for the phormer Phillies heart and soul player; $126 Million, same as Zito and Wells. Werth has been an All-Star caliber player for the best team in the National League, posting a total of 15 WAR over the past 3 years. His offensive credentials certainly qualify Jayson for inclusion in the best of baseball, as he placed in the Top 10 for several major offensive categories in 2010 (OPS, OPS+, OBP, SLUG%, Runs, Runs Created, etc.)
Oh yea, and in his 8 years in the Majors he has compiled a 43.8 UZR combined, while playing all the outfield positions.
What should you expect?: There are a lot of variables that will contribute to Werth's performance in 2011 and beyond; lineup position, pitchers faced, etc. But in the short term I think we can expect all of the numbers to dip compared to the past few years.
Reasons:
- Won't get to feast off of Nationals pitching 18 times a year
- Will have to face the Four Aces up in Philadelphia probably 14 times next year
- Will he hit 3rd, 4th, or 5th?
Given the amount of money that the Lerner's shelled out for his services, many expect that Werth will hit in the 4 hole come Opening Day. But on March 1st, Riggleman said that the most likely scenario will be Werth hitting in the 3 hole, while giving Zimmerman the bulk of at bats in the clean up spot. This will mean that his Run totals will increase, but that his RBI totals will plateau or decrease due to fewer runners on for him.
In the field, I think that Werth will bounce back from a down year to post a terrific UZR while gunning out 10, or so, runners that aren't smart enough to hold when Werth has the ball.
Werth will earn his money this year.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
25 in 25: Ryan Zimmerman (#1)
In 25 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
So we're going to start the series with the gamble to end all gambles: Ryan Zimmerman.
Why?: Zimmerman is clearly among the best third basemen in baseball, so it's no surprise that he makes the list early. We at Capitol Baseball have taken fondly to the moniker "The Franchise" to describe Zimm, and it's an apt name.
Outside of Washington, DC, the only 2 things anyone knows about the Nats are Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Bryce Harper. Considering 2 of those 3 people won't be on the Nats roster on March 31, Zimmerman still keeps the title.
What should you expect?: You should expect more of the same from Zimm in 2011: outstanding defense, line-drive hits, and almost no media recognition outside of the DC Metro area.
Unfortunately, without the insurance of Adam Dunn hitting in the 4 spot, his numbers might struggle a bit. Still, we expect Zimm's defense to be a little sharper with a better defensive first baseman in LaRoche.
Finally, we're going to actually predict that Zimmerman makes the All-Star Game this year after he was snubbed during a career offensive season on 2010.
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