It's week two along our journey to 44 player reviews covering each and every player that graced NatsTown's presence this past season. We will continue to tweak the process based on your comments, so keep those going.
Jordan Zimmermann - Age 25
How he became a Nat: Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2007 MLB First Year Player Draft.
The Raw Numbers:
IP - 161.1
ERA - 3.18
FIP - 3.16
WHIP - 1.15
K/9 - 6.92
WAR - 3.4
Key Stat: BB/9 - 1.73. In his first full year back after Tommy John Surgery Jordan Zimmermann exhibited far better command than in any of his previous Major League seasons. His BB/9 was so good that it ranked 8th best in all of baseball (among starters), ahead of such names as Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander.
Best Game: After such a fantastic year, it was tough to narrow down just which game was Zimmermann's most dominant - but we've settled on June 12th against the Friars of San Diego (founded by the Germans). In this game Jordan went 7 innings, gave up just 4 hits, gave up 0 runs, walked just 1, and struck out a whopping 10 batters - with an incredible 14 swing-and-miss strikes.
Worst Game: July 19th against Houston - a 7-6 Nats loss. Jordan went just 5 innings against one of the worst teams in baseball. His line for the day was 5 IP. 7 hits, 6 ER, 0 BB, and 5 K.
CapBall Grade: A. What more can you ask for coming off of Tommy John Surgery? Zimmermann was easily the Nats best pitcher - not just this year, but his 3.4 WAR was the Nats highest for a SP since the 2005 season when Esteban Loaiza and John Patterson posted a 4.6 and 3.9 WAR respectively. I'm not sure if the Nationals will be limiting Jordan Zimmermann's innings next year, but it looked like he had a bit more left in the tank at the end of this season.
2012 Nats Status: Jordan Zimmermann will be the Nats Opening Day starter - you heard it here first. The Organization will try to keep the pressure off of Strasburg as much as possible, so JZimm will most likely be given the nod due to his veteran status and stellar 2011 comeback. Also, he is arbitration eligible for the first time this year so he should be getting a raise to about $1.8 million (per MLBTR).
Showing posts with label Jordan Zimmermann. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jordan Zimmermann. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Recapping Jordan Zimmermann's Stellar Season
When Jordan Zimmermann this season to pitch for the Washington Nationals, no one quite knew what to expect. He would be held to a 160 inning limit, and he didn't have a lot of success when he finished the end of the 2010 season, though no one should have expected no-hitters from a guy with a completely reconstructed elbow.
The 2011 season was certainly no disappointment from JZimm, who showed why the Nats chose him with their supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. In 20 of his 26 starts, Zimmermann made it through at least 6 innings; he would have certainly thrown 200 innings this season if it weren't for his inning limit. These are the things you're looking for with your #2 pitcher when he returns from major surgery. Overall, ZNN posted a 3.18 ERA this season, with 124 Ks and just 31 walks. He held opponents to a ..251 batting average and gave up less than 1 HR/9.
No month in his short career has been better than this June, though. Over the course of that month, JZimm started 6 games, and all of them to stellar results. Of those 6 starts, he went fewer than 7 innings just once, and his final start of the month was good for an 8 inning complete game, 1-run loss. His offense couldn't even manage to get him 1 run of support to get him a no-decision.
Other incredible stats of his career month include a 0.85 ERA, holding opponents to an astoundingly low .216/.259/.275 slash line, and giving up just just 1 HR. He ended the month with a 3-1 record, marred only by that once complete game with zero run support.
Jordan Zimmermann finished the season with a 2.9 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference.com, and one has to imagine it will only go up from there in future seasons when he can throw more innings and gets more run support from a less-lethargic offense. We're excited for the future of JZimm in a Washington Nationals uniform, and you should be, too.
What do you think about Jordan Zimmermann, CapBall readers? Are you as excited about his future as we are?
The 2011 season was certainly no disappointment from JZimm, who showed why the Nats chose him with their supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. In 20 of his 26 starts, Zimmermann made it through at least 6 innings; he would have certainly thrown 200 innings this season if it weren't for his inning limit. These are the things you're looking for with your #2 pitcher when he returns from major surgery. Overall, ZNN posted a 3.18 ERA this season, with 124 Ks and just 31 walks. He held opponents to a ..251 batting average and gave up less than 1 HR/9.
No month in his short career has been better than this June, though. Over the course of that month, JZimm started 6 games, and all of them to stellar results. Of those 6 starts, he went fewer than 7 innings just once, and his final start of the month was good for an 8 inning complete game, 1-run loss. His offense couldn't even manage to get him 1 run of support to get him a no-decision.
Other incredible stats of his career month include a 0.85 ERA, holding opponents to an astoundingly low .216/.259/.275 slash line, and giving up just just 1 HR. He ended the month with a 3-1 record, marred only by that once complete game with zero run support.
Jordan Zimmermann finished the season with a 2.9 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference.com, and one has to imagine it will only go up from there in future seasons when he can throw more innings and gets more run support from a less-lethargic offense. We're excited for the future of JZimm in a Washington Nationals uniform, and you should be, too.
What do you think about Jordan Zimmermann, CapBall readers? Are you as excited about his future as we are?
Monday, August 15, 2011
Dynamic Duo
I had a great vacation this week. There was delicious food, cold beer, and relaxation on the beach. One of the things that I didn't get much of is computer time, more specifically Nats reading time. Now that I have returned back to real life it was time to do some catching up and while doing so I found this article by Joe Lemire of SI.com about Dan Haren and Jared Weaver. The basic premise of the article is that the Angel's aces can stand up to just about any duo in baseball, including Halladay and Lee/Hamels.
This got me thinking. Where would a healthy Strasburg/Zimmermann combo place on this list?
It's definitely a tough assignment, especially considering the fact that 1) Zimmermann is under an innings limit and 2) Strasburg is going through his own Tommy John recovery. But we here at Capitol Baseball don't shy away from the messy work. Let's figure this out.
Jordan Zimmermann is healthy and is currently the holder of a 3.6 WAR in 23 starts. That's roughly .156 WAR/Start. Averaged out for a 30 start season? That's a 4.68 WAR spread out over 30 starts.
Stephen Strasburg pre-Tommy John racked up a 2.6 WAR in just 12 starts in his 2010 rookie season. That equates to a .216 WAR/Start. Averaged out for a 30 start season? We have a 6.48 WAR spread out over 30 starts.
Zimmermann's 4.68 + Strasburg's 6.48 = 11.16 WAR
For those scoring at home that is better than the 11.0 registered by both Halladay/Hamels and Halladay/Lee. And that's taking into account a 25 year-old Zimmermann and a 22 year-old Strasburg - both of their primes still ahead of them.
Granted this exercise is purely hypothetical, it is still interesting to ponder the possibilities of a top of the rotation including two of baseball's best pitchers.
This got me thinking. Where would a healthy Strasburg/Zimmermann combo place on this list?
It's definitely a tough assignment, especially considering the fact that 1) Zimmermann is under an innings limit and 2) Strasburg is going through his own Tommy John recovery. But we here at Capitol Baseball don't shy away from the messy work. Let's figure this out.
Jordan Zimmermann is healthy and is currently the holder of a 3.6 WAR in 23 starts. That's roughly .156 WAR/Start. Averaged out for a 30 start season? That's a 4.68 WAR spread out over 30 starts.
Stephen Strasburg pre-Tommy John racked up a 2.6 WAR in just 12 starts in his 2010 rookie season. That equates to a .216 WAR/Start. Averaged out for a 30 start season? We have a 6.48 WAR spread out over 30 starts.
Zimmermann's 4.68 + Strasburg's 6.48 = 11.16 WAR
For those scoring at home that is better than the 11.0 registered by both Halladay/Hamels and Halladay/Lee. And that's taking into account a 25 year-old Zimmermann and a 22 year-old Strasburg - both of their primes still ahead of them.
Granted this exercise is purely hypothetical, it is still interesting to ponder the possibilities of a top of the rotation including two of baseball's best pitchers.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Nats at the Break: First-Half Surprises
Not many expected the Nats to be at .500 (46-46) at the All-Star Break this year, especially after how the season started. But a few winning streaks here and there, and some fundamentally sound baseball to boot, has the Nats flirting with .500 this late in the year for the first time in 6 years. So what were the surprises that helped (and hindered) the Nats progress to this point? Let's go over our top 5.
Jordan Zimmermann - Most everyone expected JZimm to be a great pitcher, but we're not sure anyone expected him to be this good, this quickly. He's already thrown more than 115 innings and posted a 2.66 ERA so far. In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, he's earned a 3.3 WAR and is striking out 6.42 batters per 9 innings. JZimm is back and ready to dominate as a #2 starter in the Nats rotation. Maybe one day, he'll actually get some run support. Too bad he's got an innings limit to deal with this year, unless Davey Johnson has any say in the matter.
Jayson Werth - Werth has to be high on this list and not for fun reasons. He's been so bad, it's actually scary. The $18 million man is hitting just .215 with 10 homers and 31 RBI. He looks lost at the plate, and no moment was worse than when he grounded into a double play with runners on 1st and 2nd with one out in the 9th inning on Saturday night against the Rockies. The boo's were never louder; that was Werth's low point. Let's just hope he figures out over the 3-day break, because NatsTown patience is running very thin.
Michael Morse - Coming out of spring training, everyone expected big things from Morse, and at first, he disappointed. But after a rough April, he broke out in a huge way in May, June, and July. Now, he's hitting .306 with 15 jacks and has turned into a well-above average 1st baseman in Adam LaRoche's absence. Here's hope he can continue after the break.
Roger Bernadina - The Shark has developed a cult following like none other in the Nats organization. He's solidifying himself as an extremely solid lead off hitter by having an extremely high BABIP (.315) due to his extreme speed and numerous infield hits. Bernie is coming into his own before our very eyes, and it's a lot of fun to watch.
Danny Espinosa - It might seem crazy that the NL's #1 Rookie of the Year candidate would be #5 on our list here, but that's because we're talking about surprises here. Those of us that got to watch Espi at the end of 2010 aren't surprised to see him competing for the RoY honors. That said, Espinosa has been a team leader both offensively and defensively, and is going to make a significant push toward 2nd base Gold Glove honors as well. He and Morse have, without a doubt, been the strongest all-around players on the Nats roster this season, and we hope that's just the beginning.
Those are our top 5 first-half surprises. What are yours, CapBallers?
Friday, June 3, 2011
Jordan Zimmermann's Solid Start
In the beginning there was Rizzo, and along with Rizzo came a draft philosophy that had not been seen for the Nats. Here was the guy that made the Diamondback's system one of the deepest in the game, now with the DC Curly W's. It was a coup to steal him away from the D'backs, one of Bowden's best moves no doubt. And along with his philosophy came dedication, a dedication to find the best out there regardless of school or location. His journey took him to a town of 25,000 to see a pitcher no one had heard of. A cold-weather kid, as Rizzo describes him, who has the potential to be a top of the line big-league starter. His career path turned out the be quite unique, and it seems to finally be coming to fruition.
Zimmermann rocketed to the bigs after just 36 minor league starts, making his debut in 2009. With a top-notch fastball, Jordan kept up his persona of a power pitcher while something more lurked beneath the surface. Taking his lumps in the pros, as opposed to the minors, seemed to be the smart move as he racked up a 1.8 WAR in his first year. Things would take a down turn midseason, and you know the rest. A visit to Dr. James Andrews and Tommy John Surgery soon followed.
After an extremely quick recvovery, Zimmermann came back in late 2010 to start 7 games. Those games did not go very well, as to be expected. His HR/9 and BB/9 rates were way up, and his K/9 numbers went way down. Pundits and analysts were hoping that this would be "the year" for Zimmermann, when he finally makes the leap to front-line starter. Well, how is that going so far...
I'm glad you asked.
You have seen the ERA and the W-L record, but we here at Capitol Baseball like to look a little deeper. Just how has Zimmermann managed to become the Nats best pitcher.
Jordan Zimmermann has put his ego aside, choosing to be a contact pitcher - not a strikeout pitcher. As Bull Durham taught us, strikeouts are boring and besides that they're fascist. By pitching to contact, he has been able to lower his P/PA to a career low 3.72 (pitches per plate appearance), extending his outings and using his stuff properly. You see, strikeouts take at least 3 pitches P/PA and can severely shorten a pitchers outing.
One of the ways that he is able to accomplish this is by throwing his fastball a career low 58.4% of the time, limiting the stress on his arm. And when you don't throw fastballs as much, its harder for the opposition to hit the ball out of the ball park. By choosing to get outs the democratic way, Zimmermann's HR/FB rate (% of Fly-Balls that are Homers) has gone from 12.2% in '09 and 22.2% in '10 to just 3.4% this year. The corollary is that his K/9 is at a career low 6.42 K/9, a trade-off that is most acceptable for the value that he provides to the team; 1.8 WAR through 11 games.
Through trusting his defense and pitching to contact, Zimmermann has so far put up career best numbers (NL Ranks in parentheses) in HR/9 (6th), BB/9 (7th), WHIP (14th), and FIP (7th). Jordan Zimmermann can bring it with the best of them, and it bodes very well for the future of this organization; especially with the expected 2012 return of co-ace Stephen Strasburg.
Zimmermann rocketed to the bigs after just 36 minor league starts, making his debut in 2009. With a top-notch fastball, Jordan kept up his persona of a power pitcher while something more lurked beneath the surface. Taking his lumps in the pros, as opposed to the minors, seemed to be the smart move as he racked up a 1.8 WAR in his first year. Things would take a down turn midseason, and you know the rest. A visit to Dr. James Andrews and Tommy John Surgery soon followed.
After an extremely quick recvovery, Zimmermann came back in late 2010 to start 7 games. Those games did not go very well, as to be expected. His HR/9 and BB/9 rates were way up, and his K/9 numbers went way down. Pundits and analysts were hoping that this would be "the year" for Zimmermann, when he finally makes the leap to front-line starter. Well, how is that going so far...
I'm glad you asked.
You have seen the ERA and the W-L record, but we here at Capitol Baseball like to look a little deeper. Just how has Zimmermann managed to become the Nats best pitcher.
Jordan Zimmermann has put his ego aside, choosing to be a contact pitcher - not a strikeout pitcher. As Bull Durham taught us, strikeouts are boring and besides that they're fascist. By pitching to contact, he has been able to lower his P/PA to a career low 3.72 (pitches per plate appearance), extending his outings and using his stuff properly. You see, strikeouts take at least 3 pitches P/PA and can severely shorten a pitchers outing.
One of the ways that he is able to accomplish this is by throwing his fastball a career low 58.4% of the time, limiting the stress on his arm. And when you don't throw fastballs as much, its harder for the opposition to hit the ball out of the ball park. By choosing to get outs the democratic way, Zimmermann's HR/FB rate (% of Fly-Balls that are Homers) has gone from 12.2% in '09 and 22.2% in '10 to just 3.4% this year. The corollary is that his K/9 is at a career low 6.42 K/9, a trade-off that is most acceptable for the value that he provides to the team; 1.8 WAR through 11 games.
Through trusting his defense and pitching to contact, Zimmermann has so far put up career best numbers (NL Ranks in parentheses) in HR/9 (6th), BB/9 (7th), WHIP (14th), and FIP (7th). Jordan Zimmermann can bring it with the best of them, and it bodes very well for the future of this organization; especially with the expected 2012 return of co-ace Stephen Strasburg.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Jordan Zimmermann Flirts With Perfection
It was like any great baseball night on April 14, 2011. The fans from Citizens Bank Park came to Nats Park to jeer the Nats and be their usual selves. Everyone expected a great pitching matchup, pinning Jordan Zimmermann against the Phillies Cliff Lee.
From the way Jordan Zimmermann was pitching from the first minute of this ball game, you could tell something special was in the air. Through the first 4 innings, JZimm threw just 47 pitches. His fastball was hitting 96 mph, Phillies hitters were believing his slider, and his command was outstanding. The defense made some great plays. After 5 perfect innings, all that came to an end with a Carlos Ruiz home run.
Not since Scott Olsen lost a no-hitter in the 8th inning on May 6, 2010 has Nationals Park been a flutter with the prospect of hitless baseball. Olsen now pitches for the Pirates, except he's on the DL with soreness on his throwing shoulder (shocking), but I digress.
Tonight, Jordan Zimmerman has shown exactly what he's capable of as a top of the rotation pitcher for the Nationals. He's still pitching a gem as we write, but this kind of outing from a healthy JZimm is what the Nats can look forward to in the future.
From the way Jordan Zimmermann was pitching from the first minute of this ball game, you could tell something special was in the air. Through the first 4 innings, JZimm threw just 47 pitches. His fastball was hitting 96 mph, Phillies hitters were believing his slider, and his command was outstanding. The defense made some great plays. After 5 perfect innings, all that came to an end with a Carlos Ruiz home run.
Not since Scott Olsen lost a no-hitter in the 8th inning on May 6, 2010 has Nationals Park been a flutter with the prospect of hitless baseball. Olsen now pitches for the Pirates, except he's on the DL with soreness on his throwing shoulder (shocking), but I digress.
Tonight, Jordan Zimmerman has shown exactly what he's capable of as a top of the rotation pitcher for the Nationals. He's still pitching a gem as we write, but this kind of outing from a healthy JZimm is what the Nats can look forward to in the future.
Friday, March 11, 2011
25 in 25: Jordan Zimmermann (#6)
In 20 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.
Next up on our list is a quality "cold weather kid" once crowned as "future ace", now labeled "future #2", Jordan Zimmermann.
Why?: Now 19 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Zimmermann should be settling in to his pre-surgery abilities. Considering the fact that he was able to return to MLB action in a little over a year, Zimmermann is more than ready to be a part of a Big League rotation.
When on, the Wisconsin-native has the ability to be one of the leagues premier strikeout pitchers, racking up an 8.75 K/9 in his Major League career. In addition to possessing strikeout stuff, Zimmermann has a very heavy sinker that will keep the ball on the ground. This is the year for Zimmermann to show the team that he is ready to step in to his slotted position as #2 starter, eventually behind Strasburg.
What should you expect?: We can expect that this is the year where he finally makes the leap. Its time for him to show the league what Rizzo saw when he went up to Wisconsin-Whitewater to watch a kid no one had ever heard of. Having an innings limit, he will only pitch about 150-160 innings this year, good for about 20-25 starts.
Depending on the type of run support he gets, I expect that Zimmermann will win 10 games this year. Aside from the strikeout potential, his high Ground Ball Percentage (45.0% on the career) should give our infield defense the chance to shine. These factors, as well as his future positioning make Jordan Zimmermann a near lock on our list of 25 players in 25 days.
Next up on our list is a quality "cold weather kid" once crowned as "future ace", now labeled "future #2", Jordan Zimmermann.
Why?: Now 19 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Zimmermann should be settling in to his pre-surgery abilities. Considering the fact that he was able to return to MLB action in a little over a year, Zimmermann is more than ready to be a part of a Big League rotation.
When on, the Wisconsin-native has the ability to be one of the leagues premier strikeout pitchers, racking up an 8.75 K/9 in his Major League career. In addition to possessing strikeout stuff, Zimmermann has a very heavy sinker that will keep the ball on the ground. This is the year for Zimmermann to show the team that he is ready to step in to his slotted position as #2 starter, eventually behind Strasburg.
What should you expect?: We can expect that this is the year where he finally makes the leap. Its time for him to show the league what Rizzo saw when he went up to Wisconsin-Whitewater to watch a kid no one had ever heard of. Having an innings limit, he will only pitch about 150-160 innings this year, good for about 20-25 starts.
Depending on the type of run support he gets, I expect that Zimmermann will win 10 games this year. Aside from the strikeout potential, his high Ground Ball Percentage (45.0% on the career) should give our infield defense the chance to shine. These factors, as well as his future positioning make Jordan Zimmermann a near lock on our list of 25 players in 25 days.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Survivors: The Strasburg Effect
As the snow and cold of winter turns into, well, more snow and cold... the stories of the Hot Stove season begin to fall by the wayside and new stories will eagerly take their place. It's a time to talk about who will fill out the rotation, who will win the left field job, and just how will that bullpen battle shake out. There will be one, however, who won't be able to participate in all the exercises and pepper drills. This man is Stephen Strasburg, our very own #1 pitcher, out for the year* while rehabbing Tommy John Surgery.
*Maybe back in September
Today I don't want to talk about any of those great position battles or whether our defense will actually save us runs. Not today. Today I want to talk about 2012, by talking about the last three years. The hope that resides in recovery. No longer a proverbial death sentence, the recovery from Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) surgery has become common-place and almost routine; though not guaranteed. As you may have read at some point, 9 of this past year's All-Star pitcher representatives were survivors of Tommy John Surgery. With that spirit in mind, I want to take a look at some of those survivors, in the hopes that one day very soon Strasburg can replicate their success.
It's been said that your first 1.5-2 years after the surgery is when you finally return to your former self, so where applicable, I am going to look at those 2nd year stats.
First up we have Cardinals Co-Ace, Chris Carpenter. After having several stellar years with St. Louis, the Cardinals were looking forward to the ace of their staff leading them into another successful season. But on the day one of the 2007 season, Carpenter went down with elbow soreness. Several months passed before he had surgery in late July of the same year. He returned to the team almost exactly a year after his surgery, and put up good numbers in just 4 appearances for the rest of the year. Carpenter came out of the gate in '09 with a bang. Starting the season with a 7IP 1H 0R performance against the Pirates, he would not look back from there. In his 2nd year after Tommy John Surgery (2009) Carpenter finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting after going 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.
Next we have a perennial thorn in the Nats' side, Tim Hudson. Throughout his career Hudson has been a dominant pitcher, winning at least 10 games every single season he has been in the majors (save the '09 recovery season). On August 2nd of 2008 the Braves announced that Hudson would be visiting Dr. James Andrews for UCL surgery. He finished the minor league rehab, reaching the big leagues about 13 months after the surgery, joining the Braves on September 1st, 2009. For the rest of the '09 season Hudson was able to get 7 starts, winning 2 starts and posting a sub-4 ERA. Flash forward to 2010, his 2nd year after Tommy John Surgery, Tim Hudson put up outstanding numbers; 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Third up on our list is one of the best bullpen closers in baseball, though he won't be closing anytime soon as he is now blocked by another Tommy John survivor. That man is Rafael Soriano. Soriano came up in the Mariners organization after toiling away in the minors after coming to the states from the Dominican Republic. His breakout season was back in 2003 with those same Mariners, where he pitched in 40 games with a miniscule 1.53 ERA. Hopes were high for the ballclub after such a great performance, but after just 6 games in '04 it became evident that there was a problem. Dr. Andrews visit. Tommy John Surgery on August 17th, 2004. He played his first MLB game on September 10th, 2005 after 13 months of recovery. His 2nd year after surgery numbers: 53 games. 60 IP. 2.25 ERA. 1.08 WHIP. 65 K.
One final case to increase the amount of hope present in NatsTown. A case that also comes in the form of another Nats nemesis; Josh Johnson. As a rookie in 2006, Johnson put up stellar numbers (12-7, 3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) on his way to finishing 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting. The Marlins seemed to be set for years with a rotation of Johnson, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco, until injuries plagued the fish. All those issues were summed up by a terrible 2007 campaign by Johnson that ended on August 7th with Tommy John Surgery. After what seemed to be an impossibly quick recovery, Josh Johnson returned to the Major Leagues in 11 months (July 10, 2008). And one year after his recovery he was able to post a 7-1 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His 2009 campaign proved to be even better, 15-5 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Fast forward to 2010 and Josh Johnson is one of the top pitchers in all of the National League, finishing 5th in the Cy Young voting while leading the League in ERA and ERA+.
Now, although these are only a few cases of success, if you did a little research you would find at least 30 more cases of pitchers returning to dominant form post-Tommy John surgery. It should be noted that for every Mariano Rivera and John Smoltz (both survivors), there are 5 Scott Williamson's and Phil Humber's. I have faith that the Nationals training staff will be diligent in monitoring Strasburg's progress, observing every single pitch he makes, so that we don't have another Mark Prior situation on our hands.
Upon further review, instead of waiting patiently for Strasburg's return in 2012, lets all eagerly wait to see if Jordan Zimmermann can replicate his pre-surgery performance to become one of these success stories, in this his 2nd year after Tommy John surgery...
*Maybe back in September
Today I don't want to talk about any of those great position battles or whether our defense will actually save us runs. Not today. Today I want to talk about 2012, by talking about the last three years. The hope that resides in recovery. No longer a proverbial death sentence, the recovery from Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) surgery has become common-place and almost routine; though not guaranteed. As you may have read at some point, 9 of this past year's All-Star pitcher representatives were survivors of Tommy John Surgery. With that spirit in mind, I want to take a look at some of those survivors, in the hopes that one day very soon Strasburg can replicate their success.
It's been said that your first 1.5-2 years after the surgery is when you finally return to your former self, so where applicable, I am going to look at those 2nd year stats.
First up we have Cardinals Co-Ace, Chris Carpenter. After having several stellar years with St. Louis, the Cardinals were looking forward to the ace of their staff leading them into another successful season. But on the day one of the 2007 season, Carpenter went down with elbow soreness. Several months passed before he had surgery in late July of the same year. He returned to the team almost exactly a year after his surgery, and put up good numbers in just 4 appearances for the rest of the year. Carpenter came out of the gate in '09 with a bang. Starting the season with a 7IP 1H 0R performance against the Pirates, he would not look back from there. In his 2nd year after Tommy John Surgery (2009) Carpenter finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting after going 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.
Next we have a perennial thorn in the Nats' side, Tim Hudson. Throughout his career Hudson has been a dominant pitcher, winning at least 10 games every single season he has been in the majors (save the '09 recovery season). On August 2nd of 2008 the Braves announced that Hudson would be visiting Dr. James Andrews for UCL surgery. He finished the minor league rehab, reaching the big leagues about 13 months after the surgery, joining the Braves on September 1st, 2009. For the rest of the '09 season Hudson was able to get 7 starts, winning 2 starts and posting a sub-4 ERA. Flash forward to 2010, his 2nd year after Tommy John Surgery, Tim Hudson put up outstanding numbers; 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Third up on our list is one of the best bullpen closers in baseball, though he won't be closing anytime soon as he is now blocked by another Tommy John survivor. That man is Rafael Soriano. Soriano came up in the Mariners organization after toiling away in the minors after coming to the states from the Dominican Republic. His breakout season was back in 2003 with those same Mariners, where he pitched in 40 games with a miniscule 1.53 ERA. Hopes were high for the ballclub after such a great performance, but after just 6 games in '04 it became evident that there was a problem. Dr. Andrews visit. Tommy John Surgery on August 17th, 2004. He played his first MLB game on September 10th, 2005 after 13 months of recovery. His 2nd year after surgery numbers: 53 games. 60 IP. 2.25 ERA. 1.08 WHIP. 65 K.
One final case to increase the amount of hope present in NatsTown. A case that also comes in the form of another Nats nemesis; Josh Johnson. As a rookie in 2006, Johnson put up stellar numbers (12-7, 3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) on his way to finishing 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting. The Marlins seemed to be set for years with a rotation of Johnson, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco, until injuries plagued the fish. All those issues were summed up by a terrible 2007 campaign by Johnson that ended on August 7th with Tommy John Surgery. After what seemed to be an impossibly quick recovery, Josh Johnson returned to the Major Leagues in 11 months (July 10, 2008). And one year after his recovery he was able to post a 7-1 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His 2009 campaign proved to be even better, 15-5 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Fast forward to 2010 and Josh Johnson is one of the top pitchers in all of the National League, finishing 5th in the Cy Young voting while leading the League in ERA and ERA+.
Now, although these are only a few cases of success, if you did a little research you would find at least 30 more cases of pitchers returning to dominant form post-Tommy John surgery. It should be noted that for every Mariano Rivera and John Smoltz (both survivors), there are 5 Scott Williamson's and Phil Humber's. I have faith that the Nationals training staff will be diligent in monitoring Strasburg's progress, observing every single pitch he makes, so that we don't have another Mark Prior situation on our hands.
Upon further review, instead of waiting patiently for Strasburg's return in 2012, lets all eagerly wait to see if Jordan Zimmermann can replicate his pre-surgery performance to become one of these success stories, in this his 2nd year after Tommy John surgery...
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