It's week two of our journey to 44 player reviews covering each and every player that graced NatsTown's presence this past season. We will continue to tweak the process based on your comments, so keep those going.
Stephen Strasburg - Age 23
How he became a Nat: 1st Round pick in the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft
The Raw Numbers:
Games - 5
ERA - 1.50
FIP - 1.28
K/9 - 9.00
WHIP - 0.71
WAR - 1.1
Key Stat: 0.75 and 1.1. In his rehab year after Tommy John Surgery Stephen Strasburg managed to have an absolutely astounding BB/9 ratio of 0.75 - meaning he walked less than a batter per 9 innings. This is almost unheard of after such a strenuous recovery program. I couldn't help but add a second key stat (sue me), 1.1 was Strasburg's WAR for the past year. Consider that Strasburg pitched less than 5 IP/start that is a fantastic WAR for a starter. The 1.1 averaged to a full season (30 starts) would be a 6.6 WAR - placing Strasburg as the 6th best starter in all of baseball; behind Halladay (8.2), Sabathia (7.1), Verlander (7.0), Kershaw (6.8), and Lee (6.7). 31 starts would place him tied with Kershaw, 32 starts would put him tied with Verlander, and 33 starts would be 2nd in all of Baseball. *All purely hypothetical*
Best Game: Is there really any question as to which game was his best? September 28th vs the Marlins, the last game of the season. Strasburg gave all of NatsTown another reason to get excited about next year. He went 6.0 Innings, gave up just a single to Gaby Sanchez, walked 2, and struck out a whopping 10 batters!
Worst Game: That would be the start right before his best game - September 23rd vs the Bravos. Strasburg only went 4 innings, allowed 3 runs (2 earned), and gave up 5 hits. As worst games go - I would take this as the worst any day of the year.
CapBall Grade: A. This was an absolute no-brainer. Strasburg came back from Tommy John Surgery without missing a beat. He is ready to assume his place among the MLB elite in 2012.
2012 Nats Status: Barring a setback or freak injury, I believe that Strasburg will be the Nats #2 starter next year - behind Jordan Zimmermann. His fastball, predictably, dipped 1.5 MPH but his Change and Curve also dipped along with it, which is really all that matters. It should be noted that his fastball hit triple digits in the final game of the season - when he was fileting fish. Expect his velocity to top out around 99-100 next season. It should be a fun year watching him pitch.
Showing posts with label Stephen Strasburg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stephen Strasburg. Show all posts
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Set Up To Fail
So, last night Stephen Strasburg made his triumphant return to baseball in exclamatory fashion, striking out four, walking none, and allowing just two hits in five amazing innings of work. We aren't going to write about that though; we recommend that you head to WashingtonPost.com where I'm sure that Dave Sheinin has written an amazing feature about the appearance and that Tom Boswell has stated that he is the next Walter Johnson.
The game was far from over when Strasburg left, as noted by Adam Kilgore who made it clear that the Dodger's had just 2 hits through 5, while ending with 13... Ouch.
On a day that more closely resembled a Little League game (everybody plays!) than a MLB game, there were two decisions that really frustrated me as a writer and as a fan.
Play one:
Bottom 9. Two outs. Bases Loaded. 7-3 Game. Your two best hitters have just struck out looking. Sounds like the perfect situation to put in a kid making his MLB-debut, right? Well, only if you are absolutely insane. Nope, that's exactly what Davey Johnson decided to do. .235-in-AAA hitter Corey Brown entered as a pinch hitter, making his MLB-debut with the game on the line and all of the pressure on his shoulders. Brown did a decent job fighting off Guerra's gas, but eventually hit a lazy fly to left to end the game; all this while Pudge, Flores, Cora, and Nix all sat on the bench.
Play two:
It was reported before the game that Brad Peacock would not enter a game mid-inning, because it doesn't make sense to have a starter appear in the game mid-inning. Flash-forward to the end of the 5th inning, Strasburg has done his thing, the Nats have a 3-0 lead, enter Peacock, right? Wrong. Enter Doug Slaten in just his 2nd appearance post-DL. Two hits later and Davey calls for Peacock. Once again, we have a player making his MLB-debut. So, in his first career appearance he has to come in with two runners on against Matt Kemp, the NL leader in WAR and front-runner for NL MVP. Well, by now you know what happened - coming in mid-inning, having to pitch out of the stretch, against the NL's best hitter - Peacock blinked and the game was tied. As if he didn't have enough adversity to overcome just to make the big-leagues, you know - being a 41st round pick and all.
I'm not the only one who was frustrated by this last decision by Davey Johnson. Here is what the Natsosphere had to say...
Adam Kilgore - "Tie game. Doug Slaten started the mess. Davey let Brad Peacock, a prospect and starter, begin his career from the stretch against Matt Kemp."
Ben Goessling - "A guy with 12 career relief appearances started his major league career from the stretch. That's a mess"
Mark Zuckerman - "Davey said he wouldn't bring in Peacock in middle of inning. So naturally he brings him in to face Matt Kemp with 2 on and 1 out in 6th."
- "This game is tied 3-3 and Strasburg can't get the win. Can't blame Peacock. He's a starter. Why was he making MLB debut in this spot?"
I spent my college years training to be a teacher and one of the most important lessons I learned is that no matter what you do, you have to set your students up for success. Now, I know that Davey Johnson is out there trying to win ballgames, and if that is the case then why is he putting kids making their MLB-debuts in such pressure-packed situations.
It is clear by this point that the Nats aren't a playoff team, or even a .500 team. It seems to me like the organizational philosophy this September has been to see what the young kids can do (See: Livo shutdown, Marrero everyday). And if that is the case then why are we setting up these kids to fail by putting them in situations that are heavily stacked against them. It just doesn't make much sense.
What do you think, CapBallers? Did last night frustrate you as much as it did me? Sound off in the comments!
The game was far from over when Strasburg left, as noted by Adam Kilgore who made it clear that the Dodger's had just 2 hits through 5, while ending with 13... Ouch.
On a day that more closely resembled a Little League game (everybody plays!) than a MLB game, there were two decisions that really frustrated me as a writer and as a fan.
Play one:
Bottom 9. Two outs. Bases Loaded. 7-3 Game. Your two best hitters have just struck out looking. Sounds like the perfect situation to put in a kid making his MLB-debut, right? Well, only if you are absolutely insane. Nope, that's exactly what Davey Johnson decided to do. .235-in-AAA hitter Corey Brown entered as a pinch hitter, making his MLB-debut with the game on the line and all of the pressure on his shoulders. Brown did a decent job fighting off Guerra's gas, but eventually hit a lazy fly to left to end the game; all this while Pudge, Flores, Cora, and Nix all sat on the bench.
Play two:
It was reported before the game that Brad Peacock would not enter a game mid-inning, because it doesn't make sense to have a starter appear in the game mid-inning. Flash-forward to the end of the 5th inning, Strasburg has done his thing, the Nats have a 3-0 lead, enter Peacock, right? Wrong. Enter Doug Slaten in just his 2nd appearance post-DL. Two hits later and Davey calls for Peacock. Once again, we have a player making his MLB-debut. So, in his first career appearance he has to come in with two runners on against Matt Kemp, the NL leader in WAR and front-runner for NL MVP. Well, by now you know what happened - coming in mid-inning, having to pitch out of the stretch, against the NL's best hitter - Peacock blinked and the game was tied. As if he didn't have enough adversity to overcome just to make the big-leagues, you know - being a 41st round pick and all.
I'm not the only one who was frustrated by this last decision by Davey Johnson. Here is what the Natsosphere had to say...
Adam Kilgore - "Tie game. Doug Slaten started the mess. Davey let Brad Peacock, a prospect and starter, begin his career from the stretch against Matt Kemp."
Ben Goessling - "A guy with 12 career relief appearances started his major league career from the stretch. That's a mess"
Mark Zuckerman - "Davey said he wouldn't bring in Peacock in middle of inning. So naturally he brings him in to face Matt Kemp with 2 on and 1 out in 6th."
- "This game is tied 3-3 and Strasburg can't get the win. Can't blame Peacock. He's a starter. Why was he making MLB debut in this spot?"
I spent my college years training to be a teacher and one of the most important lessons I learned is that no matter what you do, you have to set your students up for success. Now, I know that Davey Johnson is out there trying to win ballgames, and if that is the case then why is he putting kids making their MLB-debuts in such pressure-packed situations.
It is clear by this point that the Nats aren't a playoff team, or even a .500 team. It seems to me like the organizational philosophy this September has been to see what the young kids can do (See: Livo shutdown, Marrero everyday). And if that is the case then why are we setting up these kids to fail by putting them in situations that are heavily stacked against them. It just doesn't make much sense.
What do you think, CapBallers? Did last night frustrate you as much as it did me? Sound off in the comments!
Monday, August 15, 2011
Dynamic Duo
I had a great vacation this week. There was delicious food, cold beer, and relaxation on the beach. One of the things that I didn't get much of is computer time, more specifically Nats reading time. Now that I have returned back to real life it was time to do some catching up and while doing so I found this article by Joe Lemire of SI.com about Dan Haren and Jared Weaver. The basic premise of the article is that the Angel's aces can stand up to just about any duo in baseball, including Halladay and Lee/Hamels.
This got me thinking. Where would a healthy Strasburg/Zimmermann combo place on this list?
It's definitely a tough assignment, especially considering the fact that 1) Zimmermann is under an innings limit and 2) Strasburg is going through his own Tommy John recovery. But we here at Capitol Baseball don't shy away from the messy work. Let's figure this out.
Jordan Zimmermann is healthy and is currently the holder of a 3.6 WAR in 23 starts. That's roughly .156 WAR/Start. Averaged out for a 30 start season? That's a 4.68 WAR spread out over 30 starts.
Stephen Strasburg pre-Tommy John racked up a 2.6 WAR in just 12 starts in his 2010 rookie season. That equates to a .216 WAR/Start. Averaged out for a 30 start season? We have a 6.48 WAR spread out over 30 starts.
Zimmermann's 4.68 + Strasburg's 6.48 = 11.16 WAR
For those scoring at home that is better than the 11.0 registered by both Halladay/Hamels and Halladay/Lee. And that's taking into account a 25 year-old Zimmermann and a 22 year-old Strasburg - both of their primes still ahead of them.
Granted this exercise is purely hypothetical, it is still interesting to ponder the possibilities of a top of the rotation including two of baseball's best pitchers.
This got me thinking. Where would a healthy Strasburg/Zimmermann combo place on this list?
It's definitely a tough assignment, especially considering the fact that 1) Zimmermann is under an innings limit and 2) Strasburg is going through his own Tommy John recovery. But we here at Capitol Baseball don't shy away from the messy work. Let's figure this out.
Jordan Zimmermann is healthy and is currently the holder of a 3.6 WAR in 23 starts. That's roughly .156 WAR/Start. Averaged out for a 30 start season? That's a 4.68 WAR spread out over 30 starts.
Stephen Strasburg pre-Tommy John racked up a 2.6 WAR in just 12 starts in his 2010 rookie season. That equates to a .216 WAR/Start. Averaged out for a 30 start season? We have a 6.48 WAR spread out over 30 starts.
Zimmermann's 4.68 + Strasburg's 6.48 = 11.16 WAR
For those scoring at home that is better than the 11.0 registered by both Halladay/Hamels and Halladay/Lee. And that's taking into account a 25 year-old Zimmermann and a 22 year-old Strasburg - both of their primes still ahead of them.
Granted this exercise is purely hypothetical, it is still interesting to ponder the possibilities of a top of the rotation including two of baseball's best pitchers.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Stephen Strasburg's Debut: 1 Year Later
On June 8, 2010, one year ago today, Nats fans were witness to perhaps the best game in the history of the Washington Nationals organization, and certainly the best non-Opening Day game. Nationals Park was standing room only, and neither the Phillies nor the Red Sox were in town. Just one thing was different: the rookie-phenom Stephen Strasburg was making his major league debut. I got chills even as I wrote that sentence, because it invokes so many vivid and exceptional memories.
From the team-record 14 strikeouts, to the home runs hit by Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham, to the organic "Let's Go Nats!" chants swelling across the park, it was a game that Nats fans will never forget. It was just a preview of what this town could look like once the organization puts a playoff product together.
For now, though, the Nationals and their fans just have to keep that wonderful June memory firmly planted in their heads while Strasburg continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. It would be surprising if we saw the young star back in DC this season, as the 12 month mark wouldn't be until September 3, and this team will likely be far from competitive at that point.
But thinking about the hope generated on one evening in early-June 2010 and translating them into a full season sure can get you excited, even though many of the pieces from last year are no longer with the organization (Matt Capps, Adam Dunn, John Willingham, Nyjer Morgan, Cristian Guzman).
Just think, though. With Strasburg as the 2012 Opening Day starter, Jordan Zimmermann and a resurgent John Lannan behind him, a few strategic pitching pickups, and a healthy Zimmerman, Werth, and LaRoche at the heart of the lineup, it almost has us excited for next season before this one hits the half way mark.
In the short term (this season), we look forward to when Stephen Strasburg gets back on a mound and pitches to live batters again. For us, that will be the first thing to get the buzz going across NatsTown about Stephen Strasburg again, and that wonderful moment can't possibly come soon enough.
We'd love to reminisce with all you CapBallers out there. What are you fondest memories about the night when Baseball Jesus came to Washington for the first time?
From the team-record 14 strikeouts, to the home runs hit by Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham, to the organic "Let's Go Nats!" chants swelling across the park, it was a game that Nats fans will never forget. It was just a preview of what this town could look like once the organization puts a playoff product together.
For now, though, the Nationals and their fans just have to keep that wonderful June memory firmly planted in their heads while Strasburg continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. It would be surprising if we saw the young star back in DC this season, as the 12 month mark wouldn't be until September 3, and this team will likely be far from competitive at that point.
But thinking about the hope generated on one evening in early-June 2010 and translating them into a full season sure can get you excited, even though many of the pieces from last year are no longer with the organization (Matt Capps, Adam Dunn, John Willingham, Nyjer Morgan, Cristian Guzman).
Just think, though. With Strasburg as the 2012 Opening Day starter, Jordan Zimmermann and a resurgent John Lannan behind him, a few strategic pitching pickups, and a healthy Zimmerman, Werth, and LaRoche at the heart of the lineup, it almost has us excited for next season before this one hits the half way mark.
In the short term (this season), we look forward to when Stephen Strasburg gets back on a mound and pitches to live batters again. For us, that will be the first thing to get the buzz going across NatsTown about Stephen Strasburg again, and that wonderful moment can't possibly come soon enough.
We'd love to reminisce with all you CapBallers out there. What are you fondest memories about the night when Baseball Jesus came to Washington for the first time?
Monday, February 7, 2011
Survivors: The Strasburg Effect
As the snow and cold of winter turns into, well, more snow and cold... the stories of the Hot Stove season begin to fall by the wayside and new stories will eagerly take their place. It's a time to talk about who will fill out the rotation, who will win the left field job, and just how will that bullpen battle shake out. There will be one, however, who won't be able to participate in all the exercises and pepper drills. This man is Stephen Strasburg, our very own #1 pitcher, out for the year* while rehabbing Tommy John Surgery.
*Maybe back in September
Today I don't want to talk about any of those great position battles or whether our defense will actually save us runs. Not today. Today I want to talk about 2012, by talking about the last three years. The hope that resides in recovery. No longer a proverbial death sentence, the recovery from Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) surgery has become common-place and almost routine; though not guaranteed. As you may have read at some point, 9 of this past year's All-Star pitcher representatives were survivors of Tommy John Surgery. With that spirit in mind, I want to take a look at some of those survivors, in the hopes that one day very soon Strasburg can replicate their success.
It's been said that your first 1.5-2 years after the surgery is when you finally return to your former self, so where applicable, I am going to look at those 2nd year stats.
First up we have Cardinals Co-Ace, Chris Carpenter. After having several stellar years with St. Louis, the Cardinals were looking forward to the ace of their staff leading them into another successful season. But on the day one of the 2007 season, Carpenter went down with elbow soreness. Several months passed before he had surgery in late July of the same year. He returned to the team almost exactly a year after his surgery, and put up good numbers in just 4 appearances for the rest of the year. Carpenter came out of the gate in '09 with a bang. Starting the season with a 7IP 1H 0R performance against the Pirates, he would not look back from there. In his 2nd year after Tommy John Surgery (2009) Carpenter finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting after going 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.
Next we have a perennial thorn in the Nats' side, Tim Hudson. Throughout his career Hudson has been a dominant pitcher, winning at least 10 games every single season he has been in the majors (save the '09 recovery season). On August 2nd of 2008 the Braves announced that Hudson would be visiting Dr. James Andrews for UCL surgery. He finished the minor league rehab, reaching the big leagues about 13 months after the surgery, joining the Braves on September 1st, 2009. For the rest of the '09 season Hudson was able to get 7 starts, winning 2 starts and posting a sub-4 ERA. Flash forward to 2010, his 2nd year after Tommy John Surgery, Tim Hudson put up outstanding numbers; 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Third up on our list is one of the best bullpen closers in baseball, though he won't be closing anytime soon as he is now blocked by another Tommy John survivor. That man is Rafael Soriano. Soriano came up in the Mariners organization after toiling away in the minors after coming to the states from the Dominican Republic. His breakout season was back in 2003 with those same Mariners, where he pitched in 40 games with a miniscule 1.53 ERA. Hopes were high for the ballclub after such a great performance, but after just 6 games in '04 it became evident that there was a problem. Dr. Andrews visit. Tommy John Surgery on August 17th, 2004. He played his first MLB game on September 10th, 2005 after 13 months of recovery. His 2nd year after surgery numbers: 53 games. 60 IP. 2.25 ERA. 1.08 WHIP. 65 K.
One final case to increase the amount of hope present in NatsTown. A case that also comes in the form of another Nats nemesis; Josh Johnson. As a rookie in 2006, Johnson put up stellar numbers (12-7, 3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) on his way to finishing 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting. The Marlins seemed to be set for years with a rotation of Johnson, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco, until injuries plagued the fish. All those issues were summed up by a terrible 2007 campaign by Johnson that ended on August 7th with Tommy John Surgery. After what seemed to be an impossibly quick recovery, Josh Johnson returned to the Major Leagues in 11 months (July 10, 2008). And one year after his recovery he was able to post a 7-1 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His 2009 campaign proved to be even better, 15-5 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Fast forward to 2010 and Josh Johnson is one of the top pitchers in all of the National League, finishing 5th in the Cy Young voting while leading the League in ERA and ERA+.
Now, although these are only a few cases of success, if you did a little research you would find at least 30 more cases of pitchers returning to dominant form post-Tommy John surgery. It should be noted that for every Mariano Rivera and John Smoltz (both survivors), there are 5 Scott Williamson's and Phil Humber's. I have faith that the Nationals training staff will be diligent in monitoring Strasburg's progress, observing every single pitch he makes, so that we don't have another Mark Prior situation on our hands.
Upon further review, instead of waiting patiently for Strasburg's return in 2012, lets all eagerly wait to see if Jordan Zimmermann can replicate his pre-surgery performance to become one of these success stories, in this his 2nd year after Tommy John surgery...
*Maybe back in September
Today I don't want to talk about any of those great position battles or whether our defense will actually save us runs. Not today. Today I want to talk about 2012, by talking about the last three years. The hope that resides in recovery. No longer a proverbial death sentence, the recovery from Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) surgery has become common-place and almost routine; though not guaranteed. As you may have read at some point, 9 of this past year's All-Star pitcher representatives were survivors of Tommy John Surgery. With that spirit in mind, I want to take a look at some of those survivors, in the hopes that one day very soon Strasburg can replicate their success.
It's been said that your first 1.5-2 years after the surgery is when you finally return to your former self, so where applicable, I am going to look at those 2nd year stats.
First up we have Cardinals Co-Ace, Chris Carpenter. After having several stellar years with St. Louis, the Cardinals were looking forward to the ace of their staff leading them into another successful season. But on the day one of the 2007 season, Carpenter went down with elbow soreness. Several months passed before he had surgery in late July of the same year. He returned to the team almost exactly a year after his surgery, and put up good numbers in just 4 appearances for the rest of the year. Carpenter came out of the gate in '09 with a bang. Starting the season with a 7IP 1H 0R performance against the Pirates, he would not look back from there. In his 2nd year after Tommy John Surgery (2009) Carpenter finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting after going 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.
Next we have a perennial thorn in the Nats' side, Tim Hudson. Throughout his career Hudson has been a dominant pitcher, winning at least 10 games every single season he has been in the majors (save the '09 recovery season). On August 2nd of 2008 the Braves announced that Hudson would be visiting Dr. James Andrews for UCL surgery. He finished the minor league rehab, reaching the big leagues about 13 months after the surgery, joining the Braves on September 1st, 2009. For the rest of the '09 season Hudson was able to get 7 starts, winning 2 starts and posting a sub-4 ERA. Flash forward to 2010, his 2nd year after Tommy John Surgery, Tim Hudson put up outstanding numbers; 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Third up on our list is one of the best bullpen closers in baseball, though he won't be closing anytime soon as he is now blocked by another Tommy John survivor. That man is Rafael Soriano. Soriano came up in the Mariners organization after toiling away in the minors after coming to the states from the Dominican Republic. His breakout season was back in 2003 with those same Mariners, where he pitched in 40 games with a miniscule 1.53 ERA. Hopes were high for the ballclub after such a great performance, but after just 6 games in '04 it became evident that there was a problem. Dr. Andrews visit. Tommy John Surgery on August 17th, 2004. He played his first MLB game on September 10th, 2005 after 13 months of recovery. His 2nd year after surgery numbers: 53 games. 60 IP. 2.25 ERA. 1.08 WHIP. 65 K.
One final case to increase the amount of hope present in NatsTown. A case that also comes in the form of another Nats nemesis; Josh Johnson. As a rookie in 2006, Johnson put up stellar numbers (12-7, 3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) on his way to finishing 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting. The Marlins seemed to be set for years with a rotation of Johnson, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco, until injuries plagued the fish. All those issues were summed up by a terrible 2007 campaign by Johnson that ended on August 7th with Tommy John Surgery. After what seemed to be an impossibly quick recovery, Josh Johnson returned to the Major Leagues in 11 months (July 10, 2008). And one year after his recovery he was able to post a 7-1 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His 2009 campaign proved to be even better, 15-5 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Fast forward to 2010 and Josh Johnson is one of the top pitchers in all of the National League, finishing 5th in the Cy Young voting while leading the League in ERA and ERA+.
Now, although these are only a few cases of success, if you did a little research you would find at least 30 more cases of pitchers returning to dominant form post-Tommy John surgery. It should be noted that for every Mariano Rivera and John Smoltz (both survivors), there are 5 Scott Williamson's and Phil Humber's. I have faith that the Nationals training staff will be diligent in monitoring Strasburg's progress, observing every single pitch he makes, so that we don't have another Mark Prior situation on our hands.
Upon further review, instead of waiting patiently for Strasburg's return in 2012, lets all eagerly wait to see if Jordan Zimmermann can replicate his pre-surgery performance to become one of these success stories, in this his 2nd year after Tommy John surgery...
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