Recapping Jordan Zimmermann's Stellar Season

When Jordan Zimmermann this season to pitch for the Washington Nationals, no one quite knew what to expect. He would be held to a 160 inning limit, and he didn't have a lot of success when he finished the end of the 2010 season, though no one should have expected no-hitters from a guy with a completely reconstructed elbow.

The 2011 season was certainly no disappointment from JZimm, who showed why the Nats chose him with their supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. In 20 of his 26 starts, Zimmermann made it through at least 6 innings; he would have certainly thrown 200 innings this season if it weren't for his inning limit. These are the things you're looking for with your #2 pitcher when he returns from major surgery. Overall, ZNN posted a 3.18 ERA this season, with 124 Ks and just 31 walks. He held opponents to a ..251 batting average and gave up less than 1 HR/9.

No month in his short career has been better than this June, though. Over the course of that month, JZimm started 6 games, and all of them to stellar results. Of those 6 starts, he went fewer than 7 innings just once, and his final start of the month was good for an 8 inning complete game, 1-run loss. His offense couldn't even manage to get him 1 run of support to get him a no-decision.

Other incredible stats of his career month include a 0.85 ERA, holding opponents to an astoundingly low .216/.259/.275 slash line, and giving up just just 1 HR. He ended the month with a 3-1 record, marred only by that once complete game with zero run support.

Jordan Zimmermann finished the season with a 2.9 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference.com, and one has to imagine it will only go up from there in future seasons when he can throw more innings and gets more run support from a less-lethargic offense. We're excited for the future of JZimm in a Washington Nationals uniform, and you should be, too.

What do you think about Jordan Zimmermann, CapBall readers? Are you as excited about his future as we are?

Morse is Going Back to the Outfield. We Don't Like It.

After Mike Morse's 21st ridiculously long home run of the season on Tuesday night, NatsTown was officially informed that Davey Johnson has little intention of playing Morse at 1st base after the September 1st expanded rosters. To make matters more interesting, Adam LaRoche has been all but guaranteed the starting 1B job once he's healthy.

I'm not quire sure how Beast Mode has taken this news, and he may have already known it from the start. But it doesn't sit well with us for a couple reasons.

1. Morse is hitting .334/.389/.607 in his career as a first baseman. Granted, it's on a fairly small sample size limited mostly to this season, but it's hard to argue with results. If Jose Reyes continues being hurt, there's a real chance that Morse could win the NL Batting Title.
2. As a left fielder, his numbers aren't so pretty: .248/.292/.339. Again, this is with an even smaller sample size, and lots of those numbers came from the disastrous start to this 2011 season when Adam LaRoche was (relatively) healthy and playing daily.

In all reality, the Nats didn't have a whole lot of options for Morse in yet another non-playoff season for the team. Eventually, the organization has to see what Chris Marrero can do against MLB pitching, so he'll get that chance this September.

The future will be interesting though, because as far as we know, Adam LaRoche will make a full recovery from shoulder surgery and return next season. Morse doesn't look natural in the outfield and has been outstanding at first base, but LaRoche has never played a day in the outfield in his MLB career. You certainly can't force him there now, and you have to play him when he's healthy. He's set to earn $8 million in 2012.

Luckily for the Nats, and all of us, Morse is under team control until the end of the 2013 season. With Bryce Harper set to make the trip to DC before then, another big free agency coming up, and a relatively hot middle of the order (Werth is still going to figure it out, right?), the Nats have certainly seemed to figure out their offensive problems of the 1st half. Now if they can avoid changing too many players' daily routines, it'll make the situation a lot more fluid into next year.

Can Michael Morse Win a Batting Title This Year?

As the end of the 2011 season creeps up on us far too quickly, it's certainly not too early to think about end-of-season awards and where the Nats might fit into the equation. We've talked extensively about Danny Espinosa's chances at winning Rookie of the Year, though his recent cold spell has significantly damaged his chances.

One thing we haven't talked about yet, though, is the NL Batting Title. Why can we even discuss it? Michael Morse. The only two players in the National League with better averages than Morse's .323 are Jose Reyes (.336; on the DL yet again) and Ryan Braun (.326). Pretty good company for a player who hasn't had a full-time starter's role in the majors until this season.

Let's go into a few reasons why we think there's a real chance that Morse will compete for the title all the way to the end.

1. Ryan Zimmerman - Not too many players have had the luxury of hitting behind All-Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glover Ryan Zimmerman, but Morse is one of them. We won't say that Zimm is the entire reason that Morse is here at this point of the season, because the Nats lineup was Zimm-less for the first few months of the season. But we will say that he's the reason that Morse will stay there. In the last 18 games, Zimm has seen his average go from .240 up to .298. An incredible jump indeed, and it will only help Morse get good pitches.
2. Opportunity - Morse won't be a bench player this season. With LaRoche done for the year, Mike will spend most of the rest of 2011 at 1st base. We're sure he'll get a few off days in September to give prospect Chris Marrero a chance after the roster expands to 40-men, but it won't be when Morse is hot, that's for sure.
3. History - This may surprise many of you, because it surprised me. Michael Morse's career batting average is .303. I couldn't believe it, but it's true (at least according to the wonderful folks at baseball-reference.com). Most of that may have been in a part-time role, and this year's astronomical numbers certainly haven't hurt, but you can't fake a .303 average over the course of 7 Major League seasons.

When the season ends, Mike Rizzo and Co. will have some really difficult decisions to make about the 1st base position. Do you trade Morse when his value is sky high? Do you make a push for Prince Fielder in free agency? What do you do with the returning (and expensive) Adam LaRoche? Is it time to see Chris Marrero's MLB potential?

But in the mean time, we get to enjoy having one of the best offensive first baseman in the National League this season, and one that can definitely win the batting title. It's one of those great stories in baseball. Enjoy it, NatsTown.

Livan is done, and there are lots of reasons why

When the Nationals acquired Livan Hernandez on a 1-year deal in 2010, everyone in NatsTown was excited for the return of a hometown favorite, and he did not disappoint. In his first full year back with the organization, he put up 211 2/3 innings and a 3.66 ERA, his best since the 2003 season with the Montreal Expos.

This season started out with about the same story: lots of innings eaten and an impressive ERA. But after his June 15 complete game shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, Livan's efficiency decreased significantly. His ERA since that game is 5.74, opponents are hitting a high .345 against him, and has an astronomical .886 OPS. In the last 9 games, he only pitched 6 or more innings in a start 4 times. Not exactly what you want to see from your "innings eater" on the ball club. He's only thrown 62% strikes as well.

The main reason for Livan's pending doom with the Nats organization has little to do with his steady decline this season, though. It has more to do with the slew of incredible pitching talent that is ready to break though to the majors. Trading Jason Marquis before the deadline was the first step toward a younger Nationals pitching rotation.

With Stephen Strasburg's pending start on Opening Day 2012, plus the emerging dominance of Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan (I know, I can't believe I just wrote that either), there are just two rotation spots left to fill with emerging talent. Ross Detwiler looks to be out of the contest, as he is unable to get through a lineup more than twice. He'll end up traded or in the bullpen. But Brad Peacock and Tom Milone provide the most hope for the Nationals pitching future.

Peacock was dominant in Double-A Harrisburg to start the season, and since being promoted to Triple-A Syracuse, he's certainly put up pretty good numbers. Milone has been simply dominant in Syracuse all season, putting up an 8-6 record, a 3.62 ERA, and an astounding 12.00 SO/BB ratio. He struck out 120 batters this year and walked only 10. That's incredible.

We're not convinced that both Peacock and Milone will make the rotation to start the 2012 season, but we are sure that they will both be September call ups this season. Mike Rizzo will still set out on his annual goal to sign a "big name" pitcher to help his rotation, but one thing is for sure. Livan Hernandez won't be the guy to make that rotation.

Preparing for Wang's Second Start: What To Watch For

On Friday night, Chien-Ming Wang had his first start in the majors in more than 2 seasons. Everyone in NatsTown was excited for the day that many (including us) thought may never happen, but then, the letdown happened. Wang gave up 4 earned runs on 8 hits with just 60 pitches. The Nats were never going to force him through too much stress, but let's take a moment and think about what we should watch for today.

• Pitch count: Wang threw 60 pitches through just 4 innings in his first appearance. That's not really the model of pitch efficiency for a guy coming back from major shoulder surgery. The organization will continue to be cautious here for a bit.

• Strike/Ball ratio: Of the 60 pitches thrown, only 39 of them were strikes. One thing that's easy to forget: it's really nerve-wracking to pitch in the major leagues. It's more nerve-wracking when you're a hero in your home country (Taiwan) and you know for a fact that every person you've ever known from your homeland is watching your game, plus millions more. Look for this ratio to become a bit more effective today.

• Velocity and Location: Look for low to mid-90s fastballs and mid-80s change ups from Wang if he's going to have one of his more effective games. He hasn't traditionally been a strikeout pitcher though, so while velocity will be important for his timing, location is key. He has to keep pitches down.

• Getting through the 1st inning: In his first start, Wang gave up 4 runs in just the 1st inning. It goes without saying that it's imperative that he fix the issue and give his guys a chance to score the first runs. It's always better to pitch with a lead, and it becomes more important with a guy coming off many years of rehab. The less stressful the situation, the better off he'll be.

That's just our quick preview of what you should watch for. What will you be watching for, loyal readers?

Missing The Shark? Rick Ankiel Isn't...

On July 29th, Rick Ankiel took over CF and leadoff responsibilities for the Nationals, and Roger "The Shark" Bernadina was sent down to make room for Chien-Ming Wang's first MLB start in more than 2 years. It was ultimately an extremely bizarre weekend in NatsTown that consisted of weird pitching performances, to veterans traded, and no real roster moves of note before the non-waiver trade deadline.

One person who didn't care much about all the trade hype was Rick Ankiel. With Bernie gone, he's made good work of the opportunities awarded to him. In the 4 games since Roger was sent down to Syracuse, Ankiel has driven in 8 runs and netted 5 hits in 17 at-bats. All of this peaked when Ankiel crushed a grand slam against Derek Lowe and the Braves on Tuesday night to deep, deep center field. The hit total during this stretch aren't stellar, but the RBIs are nice, even from a leadoff man.

Ankiel's range in CF continues to be above average, and his arm is well... that of a former star pitcher. Meanwhile, in Triple-A Syracuse, Bernie is doing just fine. He's only played in 2 games since being sent down, but he's already 4 for 8 with a home run, 3 walks, and 2 stolen bases.

Now, by no means is Ankiel a long-term solution in CF, or in the leadoff spot, but for now, he can fill the role while the Nats figure out what they're going to do. Bernie will probably come back up before the season is out, and Ankiel is probably not a member of this team's 25-man roster in April 2012. But I'll be damned if he hasn't been fun to watch over the last 4 days.

Trade Watch 2011: Laynce Nix

Today, we're going to talk about one of the best surprises about the Nats 2011 season, and one that we didn't think had a chance to make the 25-man roster during Spring Training: Laynce "The Daynce" Nix.

Nix has spent time with Texas, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati before showing up in DC for this year's camp. A former defensive guy who bulked up big time, Nix can now not only cover the corner outfield positions well, but he can rake at the plate, too. He is just 1 home run shy of tying a career-high home run total in a single season after hitting two thus far in the Florida series, and it's only July 28th. He does swing at a bad pitch here or there, and he has trouble picking up breaking balls, but when he makes contact, he makes contact.

Because of these factors, he has definite value to a contender. While he's not high on the list of anyone's priority list, Nix's field versatility (LF, RF, CF, 1B) and ability to hit for power could make him a very cheap acquisition for a contending club.

Nix's major drawback is his achilles injury/tightness that isn't quite healed. He gets fairly regular time off with the Nats because of it, and contenders will take notice. The last thing they need is Nix to be killing the ball and miss a few games because of achilles tightness. Teams making a run simply can't afford it.

So, while we don't see Nix getting moved at the deadline, it's possible a team could see some value in him for the right type of deal. Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments.

Trade Watch 2011: Todd Coffey

With this morning's post, we're going to discuss the man that has the best bullpen-to-mound trip in baseball: Todd Coffey.

Coffey, or Big Pot as FP likes to call him, seems to have fans everywhere he goes. People love to watch him take the 12-13 second run to the mount in non-crucial game situations. To start the season, it looked like Coffey was one of the better bullpen pickups by Mike Rizzo to replace some of the middle relief talent that the Nats lost in the off season. He finished the first half with a 3-0 record, a 3.28 ERA, and hitters had a .239 BAA when facing him.

Since the Break, though, Coffey hasn't looked so awesome in his appearances. He's 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA and a .438 BAA versus the 20 batters he's faced. Now, during that period, he was put in more "critical" game situations than we're used to, but he certainly doesn't look like the same pitcher that he looked like before. His slider is less devastating; his fastball is not located quite as well.

This tells us two things in regards to the trade deadline, and it's something that we talk about regularly offline. Mike Rizzo waits too long to pull the trigger sometimes. If Coffey had been traded earlier, when his value was at it's highest, the Nats would probably have gotten better prospects in return than with the current Coffey that's shown he may not be able to succeed in big game situations.

In the same token, it tells the organization that maybe the Nats actually can't rely on Coffey except for mop up roles or when down by 10 runs. There's value in that position, but those types of relievers are a dime-a-dozen. Why not trade Coffey for whatever prospects they can get, and bring up any other reliever from the minors that can fill the same roll for a lot less money?

Who are the contenders?: Diamondbacks, Reds, Rangers

What's the return?: Unless something crazy happens, low to mid level (AA and below) talent, probably. It may be similar to a Guzman for Tatusko and Roark type deal.

So, CapBallers, would you trade the sprints from the 'pen for some minor league prospects? Let us know in the comments!

Trade Watch 2011: Ivan Rodriguez

In today's trade conversation, we discuss the possibility that Pudge will get dealt before the July 31st deadline.

Pudge has been in and out of trade talks over the last few months, mostly because of his age, expiring contract, and the fact that Jesus Flores is healthy again. But don't discount the fact that the man can still play one fantastic game of baseball. His defense is as good as ever, and his arm is still capable of throwing out an outstanding number of would-be base stealers. While his offense isn't quite what it was, this future Hall of Famer has adapted his approach to a lot of opposite field hits, and he's been outstanding in the clutch.

Unfortunately, though, over the 2 seasons with the Nats, Pudge has struggled with a few nagging injuries, which never bodes well for a catcher. At 39 years old, it's hard to imagine Pudge ever being a starting catcher again, but he can do what he's done for Wilson Ramos: be a solid backup and superior mentor. Pudge is always in the conversation when analysts discuss which current players will become big-league managers in the future, and we don't disagree at all on that.

The market for catchers doesn't seem to be as large considering the Giants, without Buster Posey, aren't interested, but there has to be a team out there that's willing to trade a prospect or two for a future Hall of Fame catcher and 14-time All Star. Stay tuned. There's only 6 more days left to find out.

Trade Watch 2011: Tyler Clippard

Here at Capitol Baseball, we're fond of series. That way, we can provide you as much information as we possibly can without writing Joe Posnanski length posts. With this next series, over the next 11 days, we'll be discussing 11 Nats that could end up in other uniforms before the July 31st trade deadline. Today's trade topic: Tyler Clippard.

It makes sense that, just like last season with Matt Capps, the Nats lone All-Star representative (and All-Star Game winner) ends up at the top of our list. We don't want to draw a lot of comparisons between Clippard and Capps, because we think that Clippard has a lot better "stuff" than Capps ever did. But we will use some comparisons to help explain our reasoning to why Clippard could be traded for the right pieces.

Now, this isn't easily put, but relievers are a dime a dozen. Bullpen guys are a crucial aspect of the baseball game, and teams without a bullpen simply can't compete, but that said, besides Mariano Rivera, I can't think of a single "untouchable" reliever in baseball. A GM would be crazy not to take a phone call on Clippard if it would get a valuable piece for the organization. (See: Ramos, Wilson)

It's also proven to be extremely hard for a reliever to remain consistent over multiple years, especially with the number of innings that Clippard has pitched in the 'pen over the last couple seasons. At some point, some guys need to be sold high that have a high probability of breaking down, and sadly, Clipp is on that list.

On the flip side, though, Clippard is under team control until 2015 and could prove to be a valuable piece in the future-Nats successes. We're not saying the Nats should take Clippard and unload him for anyone. He's a valuable piece and if the right trade didn't come along, the Nats would be crazy to let him go.

Clippard is arbitration eligible in 2012 and will command a big raise over his sub-million dollar salary, which is just a bit of extra info to help you make your decision.

So what do you think, CapBallers? Would you trade Clippard for the right pieces? If so, who? Remember to think with your baseball head, and not with your love of "The Goggles."

Nats at the Break: First-Half Surprises

Not many expected the Nats to be at .500 (46-46) at the All-Star Break this year, especially after how the season started. But a few winning streaks here and there, and some fundamentally sound baseball to boot, has the Nats flirting with .500 this late in the year for the first time in 6 years. So what were the surprises that helped (and hindered) the Nats progress to this point? Let's go over our top 5.

Jordan Zimmermann - Most everyone expected JZimm to be a great pitcher, but we're not sure anyone expected him to be this good, this quickly. He's already thrown more than 115 innings and posted a 2.66 ERA so far. In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, he's earned a 3.3 WAR and is striking out 6.42 batters per 9 innings. JZimm is back and ready to dominate as a #2 starter in the Nats rotation. Maybe one day, he'll actually get some run support. Too bad he's got an innings limit to deal with this year, unless Davey Johnson has any say in the matter.

Jayson Werth - Werth has to be high on this list and not for fun reasons. He's been so bad, it's actually scary. The $18 million man is hitting just .215 with 10 homers and 31 RBI. He looks lost at the plate, and no moment was worse than when he grounded into a double play with runners on 1st and 2nd with one out in the 9th inning on Saturday night against the Rockies. The boo's were never louder; that was Werth's low point. Let's just hope he figures out over the 3-day break, because NatsTown patience is running very thin.

Michael Morse - Coming out of spring training, everyone expected big things from Morse, and at first, he disappointed. But after a rough April, he broke out in a huge way in May, June, and July. Now, he's hitting .306 with 15 jacks and has turned into a well-above average 1st baseman in Adam LaRoche's absence. Here's hope he can continue after the break.

Roger Bernadina - The Shark has developed a cult following like none other in the Nats organization. He's solidifying himself as an extremely solid lead off hitter by having an extremely high BABIP (.315) due to his extreme speed and numerous infield hits. Bernie is coming into his own before our very eyes, and it's a lot of fun to watch.

Danny Espinosa - It might seem crazy that the NL's #1 Rookie of the Year candidate would be #5 on our list here, but that's because we're talking about surprises here. Those of us that got to watch Espi at the end of 2010 aren't surprised to see him competing for the RoY honors. That said, Espinosa has been a team leader both offensively and defensively, and is going to make a significant push toward 2nd base Gold Glove honors as well. He and Morse have, without a doubt, been the strongest all-around players on the Nats roster this season, and we hope that's just the beginning.

Those are our top 5 first-half surprises. What are yours, CapBallers?

Winning Against Odds

If you look at the box score from Wednesday night's game, it looked like just another Nats-like win. A one-run game without a ton of runs and a solid pitching performance from the starter and the pen. Everyone starter besides Jayson Werth got a hit, but that's for another post. If you saw the game, though, frustration probably outweighed excitement until Morse scored on Ramos'

Gorzelanny got through 6 innings of work and was surprisingly pitch efficient (82 pitches) after throwing more than 50 pitches through just 3 innings of work, but it didn't come pretty. There were 3 very, very loud outs to deep centerfield, that would have been home runs in almost any other ballpark in the country. Not to mention the home run that Aramis Ramirez hit in the 6th to center field went as high up the batters eye as Zimm's walk off blast on Opening Day 2008. He just crushed it. Gorzelanny's developed a propensity for giving up home runs and lots of them, and not solo ones.

The real problem wasn't Tom Gorzelanny's home runs, though. It was the Nats ineptitude with runners on base. The offense put 16 runners on base (13 hits, 3 walks) and stranded 11 of them. That's right, they left 11 runners on base, with many of them in scoring position with 1 out or less. When Davey Johnson talked about a laugher the other day, this game would have been a prime candidate. It just didn't happen.

Perhaps the best thing to take from the win was Ryan Zimmerman's breakthrough night. Zimm went 3 for 4 with a towering 2-run home run to left field and a walk. Let's all just hope that Zimm is able to keep doing that, because if his offense takes off, there is absolutely no telling where this team can go from here. They can even win games like that, where they had no business even being in it.

Handicapping Detwiler's Start

Tuesday night, Ross Detwiler went 5.1 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits. On paper, that makes a pretty average start. He got the Curly W, and the Nats moved back above the .500 mark. Simple enough, right? Let's look at our concerns from yesterday's post and how our predictions matched up to what really happened: bullet-point style.

• Velocity - We said our main concern for Detwiler was his velocity. Well, it looked like Nats Park had him jacked up. His fastball got all the way up to 95 twice in the first inning and stayed pretty stable in the 92-93 mph range throughout the start. That's the exact velocity you want Rossy D at with his 84 mph change up. We liked what we saw, including that his velocity stayed up to the end. It's hard to know how quickly it'd disappear though, since he was done after just 78 pitches.
• Walks - Detwiler's BB/9 was 3.30 in Syracuse this season, which is a bit higher than an ideal level. Tuesday, he walked no one; 49 of his 78 pitches were strikes. You'd like to see a better ball-strike ratio, but the no walks against major league hitting was a great start.
• Hit hard - We said that Detwiler would get lit up. We were wrong about the hits, but we weren't wrong about getting hit hard. There was a whole lot of contact, especially in the first few innings, where Cubs hitters were making exceptional contact; it just happened to be at Nats fielders. Ross caught some real breaks there.

Overall, we were impressed with Detwiler's start, as it wasn't as bad as we thought it could be. We still have serious concerns, though. Detwiler faced just 21 batters. Once he got through the lineup twice, it turned not so great. Of the only 3 batters that saw him a 3rd time (Johnson, DeWitt, A. Ramirez), one doubled, one flied out, and one hit a 2-run homer. It's a small sample size, but it doesn't bode well to getting through the lineup 3 times as a starter. Just another reason why we think Detwiler could be a great lefty reliever and spot starter long term. Only time will tell what happens with him as far as that goes.

What do you think will happen with Rossy D long term? Despite his slow starting career, we like him, do you?

Predicting Detwiler's Start

Ross Detwiler returns to the Nationals starting rotation tonight, though probably not for long. As a result, Collin Balester got screwed once again and got sent back down to Syracuse to make roster space for Rossy D. Don't expect Bally to stay down long though. Davey Johnson sounded quite impressed with his 7 inning relief appearance after Marquis had his most recent implosion.

Last season, Detwiler started 5 games to fairly disappointing results. In 3 of those 5 starts, he didn't make it through 5 innings. He gave up 22 runs (14 earned) in 23.2 innings for an inflated 5.32 ERA. He stranded just under 60% of runners, and hitters had a .307 average against. He fared much better in 3 relief appearances, though, giving up no earned runs in 6 innings (2 innings/appearance). He stranded all runners and opposing hitters threw up just a .158 average.

Tonight, we expect to see the starting pitcher of 2010, not the reliever. Why, besides the obvious "because he's starting" thing? Because Detwiler hasn't even come close to dominating the competition in AAA Syracuse. He's put up a mediocre 4.32 ERA in 87.1 innings. He's struck out a decent number of batters (6.49 K/9), but he's also walked far too many (3.30 BB/9). Opponents BABIP is an inflated .336; luckily, the Nats will put a pretty great defense behind him this evening.

Our main concern is what we wrote about last month: velocity. Detwiler has struggled to break 90 mph with his fastball and has a change up that hovers around 85 mph. That kind of difference may fool AA and even some AAA talent, but it certainly isn't going to fool anyone (besides Ian Desmond) in the major leagues. We think that there's a good shot that Detwiler will get lit up early and often by the Cubs aging, but still fairly talented, lineup. We hope we're wrong, because deep down, we're still big Rossy D guys and want him to succeed. We're more than a little concerned about the results of tonight's start, though, especially without a true long-reliever available in the 'pen.

What do you think, CapBallers? Is Ross in line for more pain as a starter? Does he have a future as a reliever? Should they unload him before his body completely breaks down? Sound off in the comments!

Nats Record Helping Espinosa's RoY Candidacy

Danny Espinosa's play speaks for itself. He is quite possibly the best defensive 2nd baseman in the National League; he's got speed and a fire to compete, and his bat is catching fire as the season progresses.

Espinosa's numbers in some categories are far and away better than any of his rookie counterparts. His WAR is 3.1, good for 1st place among rookies in all of baseball and more than double Cardinals SS Allen Craig's WAR (1.5). Espinosa is providing double the wins that the next best rookie in all of baseball would provide. If that's not impressive enough, Espinosa also leads MLB rookies in plate appearances, home runs, runs, RBI, and stolen bases. Not NL rookies, MLB rookies. He's better than every rookie in all of baseball in the most important raw stats in baseball. His own numbers aren't the only thing that is propelling Espinosa to the front of the Rookie of the Year competition, though.

The Washington Nationals record may have a lot to do with whether Espinosa ultimately wins the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2011. Since 1998, when Kerry Wood won the NL RoY award, only 3 players have won the award with sub-.500 teams: Jason Jennings (Rockies), Jason Bay (Pirates), Hanley Ramirez (Marlins). Two winners played for teams that ultimately won the World Series (Dontrelle Willis - 2003; Buster Posey - 2010). It's not easy for a Rookie of the Year to emerge from an unimpressive baseball team.

This Nats current stint above the .500 mark is drawing more notice to Espinosa and his candidacy for the prestigious award, but the team will have to continue to be relevant nationally, not just in DC circles, for Espi to stand a real chance to win the award. If he's able to keep up this current offensive breakout, we could be celebrating our first Rookie of the Year winner in NatsTown come this off-season.

Are these Nats for real?

Last night during the Nats contest against the Angels, I simply mentioned how the Nats good play makes me nervous from time to time, as I await an implosion in quality of play. Well, said tweet brought a flurry of responses, from the logical, to the pessimistic, to the ludicrous.

It really got us thinking beyond, "wow, this team is fun to watch," because they are certainly that. It made us wonder just how sustainable this team actually is. When you look at the Nats offense, there is still much left to be desired. Besides Danny "ROY" Espinosa and Michael "Beast Mode" Morse, there hasn't been any sort of consistency at the plate. Jayson "$126 million" Werth has been simply abhorrent, and Zimmerman has struggled since his return, though he looked to be getting his swing back yesterday.

The folks over at We Love DC Sports may have said it best, though. They responded, "I know, right? I can see the bell curve's broken here, but damn if it's not fun to watch." That's exactly how we feel. The Nationals clearly are a much improved baseball team, not just since last season, but since last month. The defensive talent is there and realized; the pitching has far exceeded expectations. We all know how lackluster the offense has been overall, but between clutch hits and a new air of confidence in a small ball style with power, they've some how made it work.

But let's be real here, folks. We still don't believe this team is playoff bound this year, and quite frankly, there's no way that this current pace is sustainable. Once the Nats reached .500 though, the season starts over. You just have to win more games than you lose from here on out, and you're in contention to be relevant in September, something this team hasn't seen in nearly 6 years. And who here wouldn't just be thrilled with that after 5 straight years of disappointment? The Nats don't have to keep the same pace, a simply ludicrous 17-8 in June, to be continue to impress. They just have to continue playing .500 ball. It seems like this team is actually capable of doing just that.

What do you think CapBallers? Are these Nats for real?

Dissecting Riggleman's Resignation

When the Nats walked off with a 1-0 win to sweep their series with the Mariners, no one in that clubhouse could have expected what was coming just a few short minutes later. Jim Riggleman's stunning resignation took the baseball world by storm on Thursday night, because it came after 11 wins in the previous 12 games and the team's first appearance above the .500 mark this late in the season since 2005.

Everyone reading this knows the details: Rizzo says there was an ultimatum; Riggleman says he just wanted a meeting. Initially, our reaction was pure, unadulterated anger toward Riggleman for making such a selfish decision. After cooling down for a bit, though, our frustration shifted toward Rizzo. Why hadn't he chosen pick up Riggs' option? Furthermore, why wouldn't he just sit down and have a conversation with him on the trip, even if there was no plan what-so-ever to sign him just to help the fantastic play?

It's hard to dissect the real background of the resignation without being a fly on the wall during Rizzo's and Riggleman's conversation at 12:35 pm on Thursday, and it certainly seem to us that there is an untold part of this saga, but we're going to do our best to create some accountability here and let you know how we see the Nats going forward.

We'd like to say that Mike Rizzo is innocent here, but he may not be. If what Riggs has said to the media is true, and all he wanted was a meeting about the 2012 option, then it seems inexcusable that the Nats' GM was unwilling to grant that request. But we have a hard time believing that was it. Furthermore, even if it was, as brilliant minds have pointed out over the course of the last 18-24 hours, it is still inexcusable for a professional manager to walk out on a team in such an odd manner with literally 9 innings notice. Not to mention, Riggleman's dismal 140-172 record as Nationals manager should hardly place him in a position to make immediate contractual demands. As such, we place the vast majority of the "blame" here on Riggleman's, and perhaps more importantly his agent's, poor decision making during the ordeal.

Several beat writers and national baseball media have quoted executives that said they wouldn't even consider hiring Riggleman as a minor league manager after these shenanigans. Riggleman comes off as selfish, and that doesn't look good in a sport where teamwork and clubhouse cohesion is so important.

Former bench coach John McLaren has already been named the Nationals short-term interim manager, and short-term is bolded because CSN's Mark Zuckerman seemed to make a point to emphasize that in his announcement. Here's hoping it remains short term. From there, though, the Nats have some options that CapBall will go into in more detail should time allow before the Front Office's official announcement, but there does seem to be a consensus on the leading contenders for the full-time manager's job: Davey Johnson, Bo Porter, Randy Knorr, and John McLaren.

Two of those four candidates (McLaren and Johnson) would likely only be short-term solutions to finish the season, but that's a hard decision to make. From there though, the future is wide open. Jim Bowden wrote yesterday that the Nats managerial job is a top 10 job in baseball that Riggleman literally gave away. And for once, we agree with Bowden. It's gonna be a fun couple of months in NatsTown as this epic saga resolves itself.

One thing that shouldn't be lost in the drama, though, is the players' resiliance; they didn't miss a beat. In interviews after the game, players wished Riggleman the best, but reiterated that the team would go on, and that they played for the team not any individual. Talk about advice Riggleman could have used before his brash decision: team, not individual. When Drew Storen said, "I don't think it's going to be as big as everybody's making it. I trust the veteran guys. I know that all the guys down here know what they're doing, so they're going to figure it out," we got the impression that this clubhouse really does know what they're doing. The veterans command the respect of the young guys. And things might actually turn out alright.

We'd love to hear your thoughts on all of this in the comments. Enlighten us, CapBallers!

Don't Look Now: Playoff Speculation Inside

Don't look now, but Washington, DC has a baseball team that is above .500 (38-37) on June 23rd. The Nats took to sweeping the Seattle Mariners this Thursday afternoon 1-0 in more walk-off fashion. And boy oh boy, is the mood changing in NatsTown.

Earlier this season, Nats fans would have been dejected by the lack of run support for Jason Marquis stellar 8 inning 3 hit performance, but there was a different feel today. Even though the bats weren't doing much, there was a feeling that this team could actually put together a Curly W after all. And then, in the 9th inning, the newly resilient Nats did exactly that.

An inexplicable play by former Nats infielder Adam Kennedy left the bases loaded after an attempted Pudge sacrifice, and eventually Laynce the Daynce Nix hit a sac fly to left that scored Danny "Rookie of the Year" Espinosa for the walk off win. We don't mean to get ahead of ourselves here, but as of this moment, the Nats are 4.5 games out of the NL Wild Card spot. Seriously, they are. Look it up.

Despite our ridiculous excitement, don't count us as true believers... yet. We don't seriously believe that the Nats will be in the Wild Card conversation come September, or even August, really. They're certainly much better, but we're not convinced they're playoff contenders. But if the team does what we outlined in our post this morning, which is beat some weak opponents before the All-Star Break, we very well may change our tune.

Any way you look at it, though, it's become damn fun to watch baseball in NatsTown, hasn't it?

Satisfied with .500? The Nats Aren't.

During the game last night, when Drew Storen struck out Chone Figgins, Nationals Park erupted with another Curly W that brought the Nats home record to 21-13 on the season and a 37-37 record overall. Throughout the clubhouse, though, you hear players from Lannan to Zimmerman saying that they're not satisfied with a .500 record. Mac talked about that a bit on CapBall this morning.

But should you be satisfied with .500? In some ways, it feels sad and just a bit crazy to be so jazzed to simply be average. In the grand scheme of this Nationals franchise, though, a .500 record in late-June feels like a World Series victory compared with the last 5 seasons of relative ineptitude.

In other ways, you have to look at what got the Nats to this spot. The Nats are 14-6 in June and have won 10 of their last 11 games. They're going for their 3rd sweep in 4 series this afternoon against the Mariners. Not to mention, they're getting out-of-body pitching from guys like John Lannan and the entire bullpen. To focus on Lannan, his BABIP in June has been an outstandingly low .207 and has left 97% of runners on base. His season averages for those stats are .279 and 78.2%, respectively. These are just a few reasons why this current pace and record might not be sustainable.

But there are lots of things that this team has that no other Nationals team has had yet. There's a different kind of confidence with this team, a new kind of swagger. Not to mention, this team has a future together. Unlike the ragged bunch of rentals that the Nats played with in 2005, the key players with this Nats team are here to stay, and they're no slouches: Zimmerman, Werth, Espinosa, Ramos, Storen.

Finally, just remember this. Getting to .500 on June 22nd means that the Nats have the chance to start fresh. It's like having a 0-0 record with an 88-game season ahead. And to the Nats benefit, they're going on a short road trip to play two teams that are playing well below what was expected of them, the White Sox and the Angels. Then they will return to DC for 11 games (including a doubleheader on July 2) against the Pirates (4), Cubs (4), and Rockies (3). The next 17 games before the All-Star Break will really give the Nats the opportunity to show themselves, their coaches, and their fans, that they're ready to put their money where their mouth is and jump above .500 going into the Break. It sure will make for a fun 2nd half if they can.

Vamos Ramos: Walk-Off Style

What an incredible night in NatsTown! And by incredible night, we clearly mean 9th inning, because there wasn't much incredible about the rest of the evening. Ryan Zimmerman grounded into 3 double plays. Livan didn't make a single out in the 5th inning. But after some brilliant relief work from Ryan Mattheus, Collin Balester, and Todd Coffey, the Nats were in position for the most improbable of comebacks.

Mariners Manager Eric Wedge took SP Doug Fister out of the game and is probably kicking himself for doing so. Through 8, Fister gave up just 1 run and 3 hits, and the bullpen imploded to allow the comeback. The beardless wonder Jayson Werth gets a double, followed by a Bernie walk in a great AB. But then, Zimm grounded into his 3rd DP of the night. The game felt pretty lost at that point, but then Hairston came through with an RBI hit, and Morse singled off of Mariners RP Brandon League's leg. Espinosa snuck one through the right side of the infield scoring Hairston.

Then, it was time to Vamos. With 2 men on and 2 out in the bottom of the 9th, Ramos hit one of the most ridiculous home runs we've seen in Nats Park. It was launched over the corner of the Mariners bullpen and well onto the Red Porch. Ramos even took a second or two to watch his first career walk-off homer sail to the seats before he started his slow trot toward his teammates.

A game like Tuesday night's reminds us why baseball is... baseball. There's nothing else in sports like the walk-off home run. It's not a moment created by a ticking shot clock or game clock; it's not altered by penalties or man-advantages. It's one-on-one, mano y mano drama. There's no feeling in the (regular-season) sports world like when your team walks off with a win. Challenge us on that. We dare you.

Check back at 10:30 for more coverage!