A Few Good Men: 35 - Espinosa

Danny Espinosa - Age 24 - MLB Service Time 1.033 years

How he became a Nat: Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2008 First Year Player Draft

The Raw Numbers:
Games - 158
AVG - .236
HR - 21
RBI - 66
K% - 25.2
UZR - 1.0
WAR - 3.5

Key Stat: wOBA .325. Danny had the 4th highest wOBA on the Nats behind power hitters Morse, Zimmerman, and Ramos - and he did it as a 6'0" 190lbs 2nd baseman. A power hitting 2nd baseman is extraordinarily rare, especially when you can combine it with stellar up-the-middle defense. Espi has the potential to be a very special player for many years to come. This is also the 3rd highest wOBA of all NL 2nd Basemen.

Best Game: June 16th vs the Red Birds. Espinosa gave his team the chance to win this game not once, but twice. In the 4th he hit a rockets single to RF to score Michael Morse to give the Nats a lead they wouldn't relinquish until a Drew Storen blown save. Always one to pick up his players, in the 10th he came up with 2 ducks on the pond and crushed one out of the park against Fernando Salas to give the Nats a 7-4 walk-off win. He went 3 for 5 on the day with a homer and 4 RBIs.

Worst Game: September 5th against the Dodgers. This is a game that the Nats were able to win 7-2 despite Espinosa's best efforts to the contrary. In the first inning Desmond, Morse, and Werth all hit home runs - Danny struck out. The day went downhill from there as Danny added 3 more strikeouts to give him a Golden Sombrero for the day - all swinging K's so at least he wasn't just standing there. It was an 0 for 4 performance where he picked up his 13th fielding error - definitely a day to forget.

CapBall Grade: We are choosing to give Danny a B. The Nationals have found a player that will be a key piece for at least the next 5 years - a player that can hit for some power, fire up the team, and play stellar defense. But right now he is simply striking out way too much for a player that is just 24 years old. That, coupled with his 2nd half slump (122 OPS+ in the 1st half, 82 OPS+ in the 2nd half) bumped his grade down to a B.

2012 Nats Status: Danny will be in the starting lineup come Opening Day; barring injury of course. He will be the Nats 2nd baseman for years to come, unless the team is to trade Ian Desmond - in which case he will be the starting SS. If he can reduce his K% to the 20-21% range that he was in the minors then he should have an even better Sophomore campaign.

Espi > Phils

Something strange has been happening lately - Danny Espinosa has been owning the Phillies.

When I decided to sit down and actually do research for this post, I found out that it goes much further than I had imagined. Some of the stats that I have found are absolutely amazing.

So, without further ado - let's take a statistical journey through Danny Espinosa's career against the Phillies - bullet-point style.

- His 2011 slash-line against the Phillies is .333/.414/.733. For those of you that can, you know, add, that comes out at a 1.147 OPS. [Ed. Note - Stats as of 9/22/11]

- In his relatively-short career, Danny Espinosa has 277 Total Bases - 52 of those have come against the Phillies. The next closest opponent is a tie between the Mets and the Braves at just 32 Total Bases.

- He has ten 3-Hit games this year, and three are against the Phillies.

- Espinosa has owned 3-time All-Star and Cy Young Award winner, Cliff Lee, to the tune of a .700/.700/1.700 slash-line in 10 career PA against him.

- Using our old friend addition - that is a 2.400 OPS against Cliff Lee. The next closest with at least 10 ABs vs. Lee is Manny Ramirez with a 1.583 in 17 ABs.

- More about Espi dominating Lee? Ok. Lee has given up 17 home runs this season - only Danny Espinosa has more than 1. He has 3.

- One last Lee nugget. Only 1 player has more career home runs against Lee than Espinosa - Paul Konerko with 6 (in 5x as many PAs).

- Roy Halladay has only given up 10 home runs this year, one of them was to Espinosa. (Note: Laynce *The Daynce* Nix and Michael Morse have also homered off of Halladay this year).

- Vance Worley has only given up 11 home runs this year, one of them was to Espinosa.

- Of Danny's 27 career homers - 8 have come against the Phils.

All of these numbers, including Cliff Lee's 4 remaining contract years, bode well for the Nationals as they build on what is becoming a heated rivalry between the two ball clubs.

Nats at the Break: First-Half Surprises

Not many expected the Nats to be at .500 (46-46) at the All-Star Break this year, especially after how the season started. But a few winning streaks here and there, and some fundamentally sound baseball to boot, has the Nats flirting with .500 this late in the year for the first time in 6 years. So what were the surprises that helped (and hindered) the Nats progress to this point? Let's go over our top 5.

Jordan Zimmermann - Most everyone expected JZimm to be a great pitcher, but we're not sure anyone expected him to be this good, this quickly. He's already thrown more than 115 innings and posted a 2.66 ERA so far. In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, he's earned a 3.3 WAR and is striking out 6.42 batters per 9 innings. JZimm is back and ready to dominate as a #2 starter in the Nats rotation. Maybe one day, he'll actually get some run support. Too bad he's got an innings limit to deal with this year, unless Davey Johnson has any say in the matter.

Jayson Werth - Werth has to be high on this list and not for fun reasons. He's been so bad, it's actually scary. The $18 million man is hitting just .215 with 10 homers and 31 RBI. He looks lost at the plate, and no moment was worse than when he grounded into a double play with runners on 1st and 2nd with one out in the 9th inning on Saturday night against the Rockies. The boo's were never louder; that was Werth's low point. Let's just hope he figures out over the 3-day break, because NatsTown patience is running very thin.

Michael Morse - Coming out of spring training, everyone expected big things from Morse, and at first, he disappointed. But after a rough April, he broke out in a huge way in May, June, and July. Now, he's hitting .306 with 15 jacks and has turned into a well-above average 1st baseman in Adam LaRoche's absence. Here's hope he can continue after the break.

Roger Bernadina - The Shark has developed a cult following like none other in the Nats organization. He's solidifying himself as an extremely solid lead off hitter by having an extremely high BABIP (.315) due to his extreme speed and numerous infield hits. Bernie is coming into his own before our very eyes, and it's a lot of fun to watch.

Danny Espinosa - It might seem crazy that the NL's #1 Rookie of the Year candidate would be #5 on our list here, but that's because we're talking about surprises here. Those of us that got to watch Espi at the end of 2010 aren't surprised to see him competing for the RoY honors. That said, Espinosa has been a team leader both offensively and defensively, and is going to make a significant push toward 2nd base Gold Glove honors as well. He and Morse have, without a doubt, been the strongest all-around players on the Nats roster this season, and we hope that's just the beginning.

Those are our top 5 first-half surprises. What are yours, CapBallers?

Nats Record Helping Espinosa's RoY Candidacy

Danny Espinosa's play speaks for itself. He is quite possibly the best defensive 2nd baseman in the National League; he's got speed and a fire to compete, and his bat is catching fire as the season progresses.

Espinosa's numbers in some categories are far and away better than any of his rookie counterparts. His WAR is 3.1, good for 1st place among rookies in all of baseball and more than double Cardinals SS Allen Craig's WAR (1.5). Espinosa is providing double the wins that the next best rookie in all of baseball would provide. If that's not impressive enough, Espinosa also leads MLB rookies in plate appearances, home runs, runs, RBI, and stolen bases. Not NL rookies, MLB rookies. He's better than every rookie in all of baseball in the most important raw stats in baseball. His own numbers aren't the only thing that is propelling Espinosa to the front of the Rookie of the Year competition, though.

The Washington Nationals record may have a lot to do with whether Espinosa ultimately wins the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2011. Since 1998, when Kerry Wood won the NL RoY award, only 3 players have won the award with sub-.500 teams: Jason Jennings (Rockies), Jason Bay (Pirates), Hanley Ramirez (Marlins). Two winners played for teams that ultimately won the World Series (Dontrelle Willis - 2003; Buster Posey - 2010). It's not easy for a Rookie of the Year to emerge from an unimpressive baseball team.

This Nats current stint above the .500 mark is drawing more notice to Espinosa and his candidacy for the prestigious award, but the team will have to continue to be relevant nationally, not just in DC circles, for Espi to stand a real chance to win the award. If he's able to keep up this current offensive breakout, we could be celebrating our first Rookie of the Year winner in NatsTown come this off-season.

Are these Nats for real?

Last night during the Nats contest against the Angels, I simply mentioned how the Nats good play makes me nervous from time to time, as I await an implosion in quality of play. Well, said tweet brought a flurry of responses, from the logical, to the pessimistic, to the ludicrous.

It really got us thinking beyond, "wow, this team is fun to watch," because they are certainly that. It made us wonder just how sustainable this team actually is. When you look at the Nats offense, there is still much left to be desired. Besides Danny "ROY" Espinosa and Michael "Beast Mode" Morse, there hasn't been any sort of consistency at the plate. Jayson "$126 million" Werth has been simply abhorrent, and Zimmerman has struggled since his return, though he looked to be getting his swing back yesterday.

The folks over at We Love DC Sports may have said it best, though. They responded, "I know, right? I can see the bell curve's broken here, but damn if it's not fun to watch." That's exactly how we feel. The Nationals clearly are a much improved baseball team, not just since last season, but since last month. The defensive talent is there and realized; the pitching has far exceeded expectations. We all know how lackluster the offense has been overall, but between clutch hits and a new air of confidence in a small ball style with power, they've some how made it work.

But let's be real here, folks. We still don't believe this team is playoff bound this year, and quite frankly, there's no way that this current pace is sustainable. Once the Nats reached .500 though, the season starts over. You just have to win more games than you lose from here on out, and you're in contention to be relevant in September, something this team hasn't seen in nearly 6 years. And who here wouldn't just be thrilled with that after 5 straight years of disappointment? The Nats don't have to keep the same pace, a simply ludicrous 17-8 in June, to be continue to impress. They just have to continue playing .500 ball. It seems like this team is actually capable of doing just that.

What do you think CapBallers? Are these Nats for real?

Nats Sweep Brewers; Move Above .500

There are a lot of reasons to be excited in NatsTown today after an exciting series with the Milwaukee Brewers. Great starting pitching is probably the biggest headline, but on Sunday, the Nats offense exploded as the weather warmed up, which is exactly the kind of thing you want to see from a team that hasn't been able to explode at all this season. As an aside, we'd like to add that this is our 300th post here at Capitol Baseball. Thank you sincerely for still reading.

But back to the sweep. Let's go over some headlines by game during this impressive 3-game sweep of Nyjer Morgan's Brewers.

Friday Headlines:

• Nats Score 4 Runs, None Batted In: This is almost impossible to believe, but of the 4 runs the Nats' offense scored, none of them were actually batted in. Two of them were walks by Chris Narveson, one was a sac fly by Michael Morse, and one was a sacrifice grounder by Adam LaRoche that scored Jayson Werth to win the game. By the way, Werth was only on 3rd because of an error: really bizarre way to end the game.
• Gorzelanny Goes 6 Innings; Gives Up Two Runs: Gorzelanny, the Nats "big" pitching acquisition in the offseason, got rocked by the Mets for 5 earned runs despite striking out 8 in his season debut, but he got it together to face the potent Brewers lineup.
• Burnett Blows First Save of 2011: Despite this negative headline, the Nats and Chad Gaudin got it together in the 10th inning for a walk off victory.

Sunday Game 1 Headlines:

• Nats Offense Breaks Free of Slump: This is clearly the main headline of the first game of the double header. Both Espinosa and Pudge rocked 3-run homers, and Desmond broke free of his 0-for at home by hitting a double and a line drive home run to left. More good news: they stranded just 4 runners.
  
• Marquis Wins First Nats Game at Home: It's hard to believe that it's Marquis' second season with the Nats and he just got the first home win, but it's true. He did it in commanding fashion in 7+ innings. The first time that Marquis faced the Brewers as a Nats pitcher... well... it wasn't so pretty. Marquis gave up 7 of 10 earned runs in the 1st inning, and we lost him for most of the season. This is a nice rebound for Jason, as he got his first Curly W at Nats Park against the same team.
  

Sunday Game 2 Headlines:

• Livo Dominates in 7 Innings and Gets Win; Nats Above .500: Hernandez threw just 88 pitches in 7 innings, giving up just 1 earned run and walking none. He's now 2-1 on the season. This is what you want to see from the Nats substitute ace; he needs to eat innings and manage runs scored. He succeeded in every way and continues to put the Nats in a position to win every outing. The Nats are now above .500 for the first time since May 2010.
  
• Hairston Breaks Free; Triple Short of Cycle: Jerry Hairson, Jr. exploded from his sub-.100 start to the year and went 3 for 3. His first AB of the game resulted in a home run, and it was nothing but offense from there for the 34 year old switch hitter.
• Nationals Defense Posts Error-Free Weekend: The Nats were able to get through the weekend in flawless fashion defensively, largely due to two major factors: a younger catcher (Ramos) behind the plate in 2 of the 3 games and Adam LaRoche at first base. LaRoche easily saved 2 overthrows from the other side of the field, not to mention 2 incredible picks on line drives to first. It's nice to have a solid defenseman over there.
  
• Desmond Completes 4-for-8 Double Header: After Desmond's disappointing start that resulted in his move from the lead off spot, he made a case to move right back up into it. It's incredibly unlike that it'd happen, especially since Riggleman said in his post-game(s) press conference that he likes Espi leading off now, but he made the decision a lot harder. He landed 2 singles in the game and stole his 6th base; he hasn't been caught stealing yet in 2011.

So there's a ton to be thrilled about about this sweep. Now, the Nats hit the road for 6 games to face two very beatable teams: the Wainwright-less St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nats aren't even scheduled to face Chris Carpenter while in Missouri. Then the Nats come back to town for a 3 games series against the NL East cellar-dwelling New York Mets. It'll be exciting to see if this resurgent offense combined with an over-achieving starting rotation can capitalize during the next 9 games and continue the magic of the weekend sweep of the Brew Crew.

The lead off spot is up for grabs, and we hate it

It only took 6 days of the regular season for Nats Manager Jim Riggleman to decide he'd seen enough of Ian Desmond in the top spot in the batting order. Desmond was 0-for-13 in his first 3 games this season, and the fact that there's another young speedster in Espinosa that started the season 4-for-9 at the time of Riggs' decision didn't help Desi's cause.

But was it the right one? Sure, Ian Desmond's bat couldn't have started the season off any colder. He struck out a bunch on Opening Day and looked terrible doing it. But what about Desmond's success during the 2010 campaign?

Ian Desmond flourished at the top of the batting order in 2010 once he was given the opportunity to do so. Just 13 at-bats in one season hardly seems like enough of a sample size to make such a decision that will undoubtedly affect the mental stability of the young shortstop. Hopefully this doesn't affect his defensive improvements.

All that said, we are generally impartial to whichever young middle infielder leads off. Espinosa seems to be a more natural lead off type. He has some pop in his bat, but he also has an above-average ability for speed, and speed is something that the Nats lack a lot of in their current lineup without Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina.

Meanwhile, Desmond has a more proven track record in his ability to hit for average and get on base (though a .308 OBP in 2010 is nothing to write home about for a lead off man). He hits for less home run power than Espinosa, which means it may serve the Nats better to have Espinosa down a bit in the lineup with guys hitting in front of him since he certainly is unable to compete with Werth, Zimmerman, and LaRoche for the middle spots.

So regardless of who is up there, it seems it may be a push, and it will be impossible to know if the Riggleman does as he promises and continues to swap the two between the lead off spot from game to game. Baseball players work best based on patterns and comfort, and that's not something that Riggs is providing with the early-season switch and a lack of firm roles for young players.

While we don't care much about which guy bats first, we hate the idea of no continuity in the lineup from game to game. What say you, readers? Like the move or dislike it? Let us hear your thoughts.

Recapping 1 of 162: Opening Day

(Photo credit Joe Drugan/Capitol Baseball 2011)

After a cold, rainy Opening Day in Southeast DC, let's do the first evaluation of 2011's talent.

Livan Hernandez looked good. There are a surprising number of people in the blog world that have been critical of Livo's Opening Day appearance. In 6 2/3 innings, he threw 77 pitches and gave up just 2 runs on 5 hits. It's hard to ask for a whole lot more than that. His first two innings could have been better, but he was on fire for the rest of the game. Seriously folks, as a starting pitcher, you have to hope that your team can muster two measly runs to help you out. But the Nats didn't and Livan got the loss + quality start combo.

Sean Burnett made the Braves batters he faced in the 9th, lefties and righties alike, look silly. He continues to make a case for himself to be the Nats closer. One can't look into the fact that he pitched in the 9th inning today because it wasn't a save situation, but it'll be interesting to see how it rolls out over the next two weeks.

Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam LaRoche did exactly what they should be as the 2-4 hitters. They hit and created nearly all of the Nats offense. The rest of the team will have to help out if they're going to have any sort of offense this season. LaRoche also had a sick diving defensive play at 1st base that I guarantee Adam Dunn not only wouldn't have made, he wouldn't have even tried.

Danny Espinosa started the season out with a bang, too. He went 2 for 3, and one of those hits was a frozen rope to the left center field gap. He also made a running stop and put out at 2nd that had Nats fans (and Bill Ladson) extremely excited.

Ian Desmond looked downright uncomfortable at the plate. He'll certainly get his chance at the top of the order, but if Espinosa's first outing was any sign, he might end up in the top spot after all. On a happy note, Ian committed no errors today!

Finally, Tyler Clippard looked good, getting out of a jam with 2 inherited runners. But we're protesting saying much more than that because he no longer enters the game to Peaches. Not cool, Tyler...

What did you think about the Nats first game of 2011?

25 in 25: Danny Espinosa (#10)

In 17 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.

Today, we add our youngest prediction to the list thus far: Danny Espinosa.

Why?: The easy answer to this is... who else? The Nationals have very few middle infielders in the organization that could even feign being ready for The Show. That said, we think that Espi is more than ready for this. He started his first year as a September call up, and we think that in a season that probably won't see the Nationals making any sort of post season push, Espinosa can use this time to really solidify himself as the team's next young stud.

What to expect?: Expect Espinosa to compliment his fellow middle infielder, Ian Desmond, very well over the course of the season. Espi will provide extremely solid defense and will probably be streaky at the plate in his "true" rookie season. Is it too early to expect Danny to be an NL Rookie of the Year candidate? Probably. But expect him to be in the conversation at some point this season.

Nats Now 7-3

Last year at this time the Nats were 0-7 in Grapefruit action, having allowed 10+ runs in 5 of those 7 games. This year a very different club is 7-3 (Top of the Grapefruit League), having put forth stellar pitching, improved defense, and quality hitting; averaging 5.7 runs/game. Today's effort saw more of all of those things as the Nats beat the Fish 8-4 in an errorless performance. Lets take a look at what went down...

- Jason Marquis continued his wonderful spring by pitching 4 innings, giving up just 2 hits, while striking out 3 and walking just 1. With a h/t to Ben Goessling, Marquis has only thrown 70 pitches in his 7 innings this Spring; extremely efficient.

- Todd Coffey pitched his 4th inning of the Spring, striking out all 3 batters faced - keeping his ERA at 0.00. Coffey will be in DC to start the season.

- Craig Stammen continued his breakout spring, possibly finding his niche as a multi-inning reliever. Today he pitched 2 innings of 1 hit ball, giving him 6 innings on the spring with 1 ER allowed.

- Doug Slaten had an iffy outing, giving up 2 home runs in his 1 inning of work.

- Roger Bernadina scored 2 runs and was on base 2 of his 4 times, showing once again that speed can cause the defense to panic. Though the Body struck out on the outside breaking ball twice.

- Matt Stairs and Laynce Nix went hitless in 3/4 ABs (respectively) bringing their averages down to .300 and .308.

- Frontrunner for LF, Michael Morse, continued his torrid pace by going 2 for 3 with his 5th XBH, as well as his 2nd BB. His OBP is over 1.000 at this point.

- Our very own Attorney General continues his battle with Alex Cora, going 2 for 3 with a BB and 2 Runs; including his 2nd 2 bagger.

- As if I wasn't impressed enough by Bryce Harper, he came up with 2-outs in the 7th and roped an RBI single on the first pitch. He now has 4 RBIs and 5 hits in 13 ABs. Not too bad for someone who should be a senior in high school.

- The #1 star of the day is a superstar in the making - Danny Espinosa. It wasn't enough for him to come into today's game hitting .368, he decided to take it upon himself to provide a little offense for the ball club. Espinosa went 3 for 3, with a HR, 2B, and a 1B - notching 4 RBIs for his effort. The young 2nd Baseman now leads the team in both Hits (10) and RBI (10). Call me crazy, but I think Espinosa might make the club out of Spring Training...

Re-Signing Adam Kennedy

(AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)

Adam Kennedy was a seemingly valuable offseason aquisition for the Nationals for 2010. The team had a gaping hole at 2nd base that needed to be filled, and who better than an aging, past his prime, former ALCS MVP.

When the Nats signed him in the offseason, though, he was coming of a season in Oakland hitting .289 with a .348 OBP. He had above average range at 2nd base. His $1.25 million contract seemed like a great deal.

But now, Kennedy has hit just .248 in 2010, although he's only had sparce at best playing time. His option for 2010 is for $2 million, and there seems to be almost no chance that the Nationals pick that up. Especially with Danny Espinosa in the conversation.

Espinosa will almost certainly get the starting nod for next year, especially considering his performance since he was called up on September 1st. With Alberto Gonzalez performing well off the bench this year, he's probably earned the utility infielder role with the Nats in 2011. To further help his cause, he can play 2nd, 3rd, and shortstop with relative ease.

So all of that seems to leave Kennedy out in the cold, based on his money relative to performance this year. Maybe he'll land on a roster somewhere in the offseason, but it won't be for anywhere near $2 million.