A Few Good Men: 9 - Hernandez

It's week two of our journey to 44 player reviews covering each and every player that graced NatsTown's presence this past season. We will continue to tweak the process based on your comments, so keep those going.

Livan Hernandez - Age 36

How he became a Nat: Signed as a free agent back in August of 2009.

The Raw Numbers:
Record - 8-13
ERA - 4.39
FIP - 4.38
WHIP - 1.44
K/9 - 5.56 (his highest since 2004)
WAR - 1.9

Key Stat: 66.4 MPH. This is the average speed of Livo's curveball from this past year - shockingly not the slowest of his career. It was however the slowest pitch of any type in all of Major League Baseball. Livo's cartoonish eephus pitch kept even the most feared hitter guessing.

Best Game: Without question - June 15th vs the Cardinals - also one of the Nats best games of the year. Livan Hernandez went the distance of a Nats 10-0 win against the future NL Champions, allowing only three hits on the night. He struck out 6 batters and didn't walk a soul.

Worst Game: August 6th at Coors Field. Livan didn't even make it to the end of the 4th inning, pulled after 3.2 IP. He allowed 9 hits and 7 earned runs in a game the Nats lost 15-7. It was both his shortest outing of the year and his most runs allowed of the year.

CapBall Grade: B. This is probably a generous grade for a pitcher with a +4 ERA, but Livan helped the team in more ways than just his on the field performance; let it be known though that he had the 2nd highest pitching WAR of anyone on the team. In September, Livo stepped aside for the good of the team, giving management a chance to see Milone and Peacock in some live MLB-Action. In my mind that deserves some extra credit.

2012 Nats Status: Strangely, Livan has some sort of attachment to the city of Washington and he is on record saying that he would come back to the Nats as a reliever if that's the only way he could come back - specifically saying that he wouldn't give that offer to any other team. I have flipped back and forth of my own opinion as to whether or not I would like to see him back in a curly-W, but despite what my own opinion is I don't see him back next year. Rizzo wanting to keep the team younger coupled with the emergence of Craig Stammen as a solid long-relief option will leave Livan as the odd man out.

Appreciation Day

The Washington National’s future is bright. The number of young stars on the rise in the organization can only be quantified if, you know, you took off your shoes and the shoes of everyone you know and love. But, I think as we start to (hopefully) enter the period of prolonged relevancy, it’s important to think about the bridges from 2005 to 2011. Now Former Nats Greats are awesome, and no one enjoys their ridiculous tales more than I, but just for this post, I want to give credit to a current Nats great and player whose contributions will become more and more significant over time. Livan Hernandez.

Now, Zim will be the first Nationals Hall of Famer, maybe even followed by Strasburg and Harper. But if the Nationals start retiring numbers, 61 is the very first one going up on the wall. Since 2005 no one has done more for the Nats on the field than Livo. Over 1300 innings in just less than 200 starts, Livan has been the workhorse of the franchise.

2005. The Nats, in their very first year in DC, are surprise contenders. Livan throws the first pitch in Nationals history, goes 15-10, leads the league in innings pitched and games started and is an All-star. 2006. Livan is traded for future stars Garrett Mock and Matt Chico. Ok, not so much future stars, but Chico did a yeoman’s job in his tenure with the team, doing, frankly, much more than was asked of him and eating innings, while Mock…ate up a spot on the 40 man roster for the last 5 years.

2009. The return. After being unceremoniously cutting ties with the Mets, Livan returns to DC. He shows enough that the Nats offer him a minor league deal for 2010. 2010. Um, about that minor league deal…thanks for throwing 211 innings with an ERA under 4. Good for a WAR of 3.0, showing the rest of Major League Baseball he may not be done. But instead of testing the free agent market, this happens: “Hey Mike, 1 mil for next year?” “Sounds good, see you in 2011.”

2011. Strasburg is recovering, Zimmermann is on an innings limit. Marquis traded. Livan is there taking the ball every fifth day. 29 starts, 175 innings, his best K/9 rate since 2006, and enough Bugs Bunny curve balls to strike out Elmer Fudd 100 times. And now, with the youth movement taking over, Livan has taken on a role as mentor.

2012. Livan wants to play. He knows he can still play. He has said publicly that he is returning to Washington in whatever roll he can have, or retiring. Imagine Strasburg throwing 99 MPH for 7 innings and Livan coming in for the 8^th throwing 59 MPH curve balls.

Whatever the future holds for Livo and the Nats, he has been a great pitcher, mentor and ambassador for the Nationals. He leads the Nationals all-time in 11 pitching statistics, and the ones Stephen Strasburg doesn’t break, he may hold for a very long time. I’ve been a Nats fan since their arrival and one thing can be said about Livo that can’t be said for any other pitcher. I was never nervous when it was his start. Think about it. Nats fans live on antacid from April to October, but every 5^th day, it was Livo, and a chance to win…

Favorite memory about Livo…Please share!!

Livan is done, and there are lots of reasons why

When the Nationals acquired Livan Hernandez on a 1-year deal in 2010, everyone in NatsTown was excited for the return of a hometown favorite, and he did not disappoint. In his first full year back with the organization, he put up 211 2/3 innings and a 3.66 ERA, his best since the 2003 season with the Montreal Expos.

This season started out with about the same story: lots of innings eaten and an impressive ERA. But after his June 15 complete game shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, Livan's efficiency decreased significantly. His ERA since that game is 5.74, opponents are hitting a high .345 against him, and has an astronomical .886 OPS. In the last 9 games, he only pitched 6 or more innings in a start 4 times. Not exactly what you want to see from your "innings eater" on the ball club. He's only thrown 62% strikes as well.

The main reason for Livan's pending doom with the Nats organization has little to do with his steady decline this season, though. It has more to do with the slew of incredible pitching talent that is ready to break though to the majors. Trading Jason Marquis before the deadline was the first step toward a younger Nationals pitching rotation.

With Stephen Strasburg's pending start on Opening Day 2012, plus the emerging dominance of Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan (I know, I can't believe I just wrote that either), there are just two rotation spots left to fill with emerging talent. Ross Detwiler looks to be out of the contest, as he is unable to get through a lineup more than twice. He'll end up traded or in the bullpen. But Brad Peacock and Tom Milone provide the most hope for the Nationals pitching future.

Peacock was dominant in Double-A Harrisburg to start the season, and since being promoted to Triple-A Syracuse, he's certainly put up pretty good numbers. Milone has been simply dominant in Syracuse all season, putting up an 8-6 record, a 3.62 ERA, and an astounding 12.00 SO/BB ratio. He struck out 120 batters this year and walked only 10. That's incredible.

We're not convinced that both Peacock and Milone will make the rotation to start the 2012 season, but we are sure that they will both be September call ups this season. Mike Rizzo will still set out on his annual goal to sign a "big name" pitcher to help his rotation, but one thing is for sure. Livan Hernandez won't be the guy to make that rotation.

Trade Watch 2011: Livan Hernandez

As we discussed earlier in the Jason Marquis Trade Watch there are three things that playoff contenders look for when trying to get pitching help for the stretch drive...
1 - Veteran? Livo is now in his 16th MLB season.
2 - Contract Year? Livo is perennially working on a 1 year contract it seems - signed last year.
3 - Proven Winner? Has won 10+ games 11 times, and has a World Series MVP under his belt.

All those things aside, Livan is having another solid year where his ERA, WHIP, FIP, and K/9 are all better than his career totals.

Livan Hernandez is one of those sentimental players for the Nats. He was the starter for the Nationals' first ever game. He was there that whole 2005 magical year. He came back in 2009 and has experienced a career resurgence. It would definitely be tough to see him head back out of town.

As much as Livo has been a key part of the Nationals past he is that much not a part of the Nats' future. It's clear that the team is going to be fully reloaded with next year's rotation with Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Lannan having already locked up spots. With Wang, Peacock, Detwiler, and Milone all in the mix as well it is pretty clear that Livo doesn't fit in the long-term plan.

I'm not sure what the trade market is for someone like Livan, but if Rizzo is able to get anything of value in return for the veteran he needs to make that move. There is always a market for veteran starting pitching this time of year, its just a matter of pulling the trigger.

Well, CapBallers, what are your thoughts on trading Livan Hernandez?

Nationals Pending Contracts

Today, MLB Trade Rumors posted the contract issues the Nats face in 2012. We're going to go over the issues we think loom largest for the Nats in the next off-season. We know it's a ways off, but it's always fun to get worried really, really early.

1. 11 Pending Free Agents

• If they don't offer any contract extensions this season, the Nats are slated to have 11 players on the open market this coming off-season. Most are veteran journeymen that will either go by the wayside or sign low cost contract extensions late this season. However, there are some of note: Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez, Chien-Ming Wang, and Livan Hernandez.
• The Nats have to decide if Marquis is worth re-signing. They may do so before the trading deadline, because according to MLBTR, the team would save $2.5 million if they unloaded him before the deadline. The Nats record in July may have a lot to do with that.
• Pudge is a Hall of Fame catcher that may no longer be extremely valuable to the club with Ramos, Flores, and Norris in the wings. I understand the player/coach mantra, but a spot on the 25-man roster is a valuable commodity.
• Wang may make the team's decision easy if he doesn't appear this season. He's cheap for his potential, but the Nats can only wait on him so long.
• Livo will be the truly interesting case. He's slowly become the recurring face of the pitching staff. First ever Nats Opening Day pitcher, back again to do it in 2011, and he's certainly a fan favorite. With the way the Nats pitching staff is evolving, Strasburg's return, Detwiler's improvement, and Maya's progression, the team may just run out of rotation spots for the old, reliable starter.

2. Arbitration Eligible Players

• Four players stick out on this list, too: Tyler Clippard, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Morse, and John Lannan.
• Tyler Clippard is going to command a massive arbitration payday. He's currently only making $443,000 and is arguably the best reliever the Nats have. I'm not an arbitration expert, but I think Clipp will get the biggest pay bump, whether done before or during arbitration.
• JZimm is marked for $415,000 in 2011, and so he'll see a huge jump, too. Considering he's widely touted as the Nats #2 for the foreseeable future, it's worth the money, but it'll be expensive.
• Michael Morse is another beast in itself. Morse makes just over $1 million this season, and if you count 2010 and spring 2011, he was due for a big raise. But he's cooled off, almost staggeringly during the regular season. The Nats may find that Morse isn't worth what he may get in arbitration and might jettison that ship before we get there. Stay tuned to Morse's stats for the rest of this season. This will be a huge development.
• John Lannan, the Nats 2-time Opening Day starter, is another one of those who knows. Lannan's inconsistencies over the last 2 seasons are staggering, but he's a fine left hander to have at the bottom of the rotation. We're big Lannan fans here at Capitol Baseball, but with Lannan currently making $2.75 million, his net worth might exceed his asset to the club. Stay tuned here, too.

What do you think about the pending free agents and arbitration eligible Nats for this coming off-season? We'd love to hear from you. Sound off in the comments.

Nats Sweep Brewers; Move Above .500

There are a lot of reasons to be excited in NatsTown today after an exciting series with the Milwaukee Brewers. Great starting pitching is probably the biggest headline, but on Sunday, the Nats offense exploded as the weather warmed up, which is exactly the kind of thing you want to see from a team that hasn't been able to explode at all this season. As an aside, we'd like to add that this is our 300th post here at Capitol Baseball. Thank you sincerely for still reading.

But back to the sweep. Let's go over some headlines by game during this impressive 3-game sweep of Nyjer Morgan's Brewers.

Friday Headlines:

• Nats Score 4 Runs, None Batted In: This is almost impossible to believe, but of the 4 runs the Nats' offense scored, none of them were actually batted in. Two of them were walks by Chris Narveson, one was a sac fly by Michael Morse, and one was a sacrifice grounder by Adam LaRoche that scored Jayson Werth to win the game. By the way, Werth was only on 3rd because of an error: really bizarre way to end the game.
• Gorzelanny Goes 6 Innings; Gives Up Two Runs: Gorzelanny, the Nats "big" pitching acquisition in the offseason, got rocked by the Mets for 5 earned runs despite striking out 8 in his season debut, but he got it together to face the potent Brewers lineup.
• Burnett Blows First Save of 2011: Despite this negative headline, the Nats and Chad Gaudin got it together in the 10th inning for a walk off victory.

Sunday Game 1 Headlines:

• Nats Offense Breaks Free of Slump: This is clearly the main headline of the first game of the double header. Both Espinosa and Pudge rocked 3-run homers, and Desmond broke free of his 0-for at home by hitting a double and a line drive home run to left. More good news: they stranded just 4 runners.
  
• Marquis Wins First Nats Game at Home: It's hard to believe that it's Marquis' second season with the Nats and he just got the first home win, but it's true. He did it in commanding fashion in 7+ innings. The first time that Marquis faced the Brewers as a Nats pitcher... well... it wasn't so pretty. Marquis gave up 7 of 10 earned runs in the 1st inning, and we lost him for most of the season. This is a nice rebound for Jason, as he got his first Curly W at Nats Park against the same team.
  

Sunday Game 2 Headlines:

• Livo Dominates in 7 Innings and Gets Win; Nats Above .500: Hernandez threw just 88 pitches in 7 innings, giving up just 1 earned run and walking none. He's now 2-1 on the season. This is what you want to see from the Nats substitute ace; he needs to eat innings and manage runs scored. He succeeded in every way and continues to put the Nats in a position to win every outing. The Nats are now above .500 for the first time since May 2010.
  
• Hairston Breaks Free; Triple Short of Cycle: Jerry Hairson, Jr. exploded from his sub-.100 start to the year and went 3 for 3. His first AB of the game resulted in a home run, and it was nothing but offense from there for the 34 year old switch hitter.
• Nationals Defense Posts Error-Free Weekend: The Nats were able to get through the weekend in flawless fashion defensively, largely due to two major factors: a younger catcher (Ramos) behind the plate in 2 of the 3 games and Adam LaRoche at first base. LaRoche easily saved 2 overthrows from the other side of the field, not to mention 2 incredible picks on line drives to first. It's nice to have a solid defenseman over there.
  
• Desmond Completes 4-for-8 Double Header: After Desmond's disappointing start that resulted in his move from the lead off spot, he made a case to move right back up into it. It's incredibly unlike that it'd happen, especially since Riggleman said in his post-game(s) press conference that he likes Espi leading off now, but he made the decision a lot harder. He landed 2 singles in the game and stole his 6th base; he hasn't been caught stealing yet in 2011.

So there's a ton to be thrilled about about this sweep. Now, the Nats hit the road for 6 games to face two very beatable teams: the Wainwright-less St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nats aren't even scheduled to face Chris Carpenter while in Missouri. Then the Nats come back to town for a 3 games series against the NL East cellar-dwelling New York Mets. It'll be exciting to see if this resurgent offense combined with an over-achieving starting rotation can capitalize during the next 9 games and continue the magic of the weekend sweep of the Brew Crew.

Pitching Struggles Replace Lethargic Offense

The Nats started the season doing the opposite of what most expected from the 2011 team. Their pitching yielded just 2 runs on Opening Day and 3 in the following game. Meanwhile, the team was shut out offensively on Opening Day, and scored just 2 runs in 3 of the first 5 games this season.

Besides the bullpen implosion on April 3 against the Braves, the Nationals pitching staff had looked solid before yesterday's game, and even yesterday it was not entirely the pitching staff's fault. Home plate umpire Tim Tschida was squeezing the zone to, as FP and Bob said, "the size of a tuna can." But Tschida was calling a small zone on both sides, so you can't truly blame him for the loss.

The fact is, the Nats were able to start strong and put up 4 runs early in the game. Besides an ugly baserunning error by Ian Desmond in the 1st, the team was playing smart small ball. They were hitting and running with success and being patient at the plate.

Livan Hernandez had a good outing to start his 2nd appearance this season, but that unraveled in the 5th inning, when Livo gave up 4 runs and allowed the Marlins to tie the game. Chad Gaudin allowed 2 more runs to score in the 6th, and Todd Coffey allowed one in the 8th. The Nats offense then did what it's done in most games this year; it disappeared.

The 9th inning showed some promise with Desmond and Werth getting on base in front of Zimmerman with 2 outs, but Zimm struck out swinging and that was that. The Nats did generate 4 runs, which is considered an onslaught considering the Nats offensive production this season, but the Nats real issue is runners left on base. So far this series (just 2 games) the Nats have left 20 on-base. TWENTY. And they've scored only 6 runs. So it's not that the offense isn't hitting, it's just not producing in the clutch.

There is one positive to glean from Wednesday though. The Ian Desmond that started the season 0-for-14 went 4-for-5 against Chris Volstad, bring his average and OBP up from... well... .000. We'll take it, and now we know why Riggleman decided last minute to allow Desi to lead off. Whatever Riggs was thinking, he was certainly correct.

Hopefully Ian can stay hot now and become a lead off guy that will work for this team. The Nats haven't had a real lead off guy yet in 6 seasons of baseball, so hopefully that's just one piece of getting the offense on track this season.

Recapping 1 of 162: Opening Day

(Photo credit Joe Drugan/Capitol Baseball 2011)

After a cold, rainy Opening Day in Southeast DC, let's do the first evaluation of 2011's talent.

Livan Hernandez looked good. There are a surprising number of people in the blog world that have been critical of Livo's Opening Day appearance. In 6 2/3 innings, he threw 77 pitches and gave up just 2 runs on 5 hits. It's hard to ask for a whole lot more than that. His first two innings could have been better, but he was on fire for the rest of the game. Seriously folks, as a starting pitcher, you have to hope that your team can muster two measly runs to help you out. But the Nats didn't and Livan got the loss + quality start combo.

Sean Burnett made the Braves batters he faced in the 9th, lefties and righties alike, look silly. He continues to make a case for himself to be the Nats closer. One can't look into the fact that he pitched in the 9th inning today because it wasn't a save situation, but it'll be interesting to see how it rolls out over the next two weeks.

Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam LaRoche did exactly what they should be as the 2-4 hitters. They hit and created nearly all of the Nats offense. The rest of the team will have to help out if they're going to have any sort of offense this season. LaRoche also had a sick diving defensive play at 1st base that I guarantee Adam Dunn not only wouldn't have made, he wouldn't have even tried.

Danny Espinosa started the season out with a bang, too. He went 2 for 3, and one of those hits was a frozen rope to the left center field gap. He also made a running stop and put out at 2nd that had Nats fans (and Bill Ladson) extremely excited.

Ian Desmond looked downright uncomfortable at the plate. He'll certainly get his chance at the top of the order, but if Espinosa's first outing was any sign, he might end up in the top spot after all. On a happy note, Ian committed no errors today!

Finally, Tyler Clippard looked good, getting out of a jam with 2 inherited runners. But we're protesting saying much more than that because he no longer enters the game to Peaches. Not cool, Tyler...

What did you think about the Nats first game of 2011?

25 in 25: Livan Hernandez (#3)

In 23 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.

Now it's time to talk about the workhorse.

Why?: It seems we've been here time and time again with Livo. DC baseball fans remember nostalgically when Livan Hernandez stepped onto the mound for the Nats in 2005 at RFK Stadium, ending the 34 year drought of a baseball-free DC. In 2011, he has the chance to do it all over again.

Nats Manager Jim Riggleman has already said Livo will be the Opening Day starter, barring some crazy circumstances. What more proof do we need in order to put the veteran starter this high on our list? Doesn't hurt that some of that 2005 nostalgia might have trickled over into this spring for us...

What to Expect?: Once again, more of the same. Livan is who we think he is (Thanks Denny Green). Since 1998, Livo has only had 3 seasons that he hasn't thrown over 200 innings. Those 3 seasons were all years he spent with multiple teams. He's never thrown less than 180 innings in a full season. Ever. As in his entire career. Expect more of this from the 36-ish year old Livan.

He might not throw 95, or 90, or even 85 most of the time. But his bunny ear curveball, remarkable difference in pitch speed, and ability to locate of every one of his pitches makes him the true veteran and ultimate professional on the staff. He's essentially become a secondary pitching coach that can still put in 200 innings. Every team could be so lucky.