Cold-Blooded Nationals

Yesterday the Nats optioned John Lannan to triple-A. Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post used the phrase "cold-blooded". To me its far more than that.

This move is an important one for the Nationals organization. It signals an important shift in focus, from perennial underdog to consistent contender. Yes, the Nats are at a point in their existence where the personnel decisions are made strictly based on the on-the-field product. Gone are the days of "Mike Bascik, he's such a nice guy, great story, glad he's on our team" and in are the times where the most reliable Nats starter in history is optioned to Syracuse. It's encouraging to future fans of the team and means that the building of a rotation by cattle call is a thing of the past.

But none of that makes this alright with me. John Lannan is a wonderful person and very good pitcher. Let's look at the stats: 751 innings pitched in 128 starts, basically 6 innings per start, an ERA right at 4.00 and has a career WAR over 7 in 5 seasons, all the while costing a total just north of 3.5 million dollars (not a year...for his whole time in a Nats uni). He has been the stalwart of the rotation and endured the humiliation that was the Nats run-support and defense. To demote him to triple-A and tell him in the middle of the last exhibition game is so outside the realm of decent that there are no words.

This was an inevitable step in the progression towards being a keystone franchise. It makes the on-field product better, or at least gives it more potential. And Lannan at Syracuse is a nice insurance policy. That does not excuse this. John Lannan deserved better of the Nationals. Be it through trade or outright release, he is a Major League pitcher and the ignominy of being sent to triple-A is outrageous. The lack of decency and loyalty will not soon be forgotten by Lannan. Or me.

Angels in Our Outfield?

If you were one of the hundreds of people that listened to the latest episode of Nats Talk on the Go - the Capitol Baseball/Nats Blog Podcast - you heard Joe and I discussing various landing spots of John Lannan. In the segment, we focused our attention on teams that had something that the Nats coveted - a young Centerfielder. We talked about the Rays, Angels, Orioles, and Pirates - eventually settling on the Pirates' Andrew McCutchen as the top target.

I don't think the team's thinking has changed on that, but according to a report filed yesterday by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe there is "a lot of speculation that the Nationals will deal him [Lannan] to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos".

Woah!

Those that listened to the Podcast know that we immediately dismissed the Angels as a target for a number of reasons; their staff is essentially locked down and Bourjos is way too good for the Angels to trade away. But any follower of prospects knows that Mike Trout, one of MLB's Top Prospects is blocked by Peter Bourjos. I think we need to dig a little bit deeper into the Angels' roster to see if this trade would be a good fit for both clubs.

The Angels have a ton of money on the books for 2012, $146.5 Million to be exact - with 5 outfielders responsible for $49 Million of it. Broken down as Vernon Wells making $21 Mil, Torii Hunter making $18 Mil, Bobby Abreu making $9 Mil, with Bourjos and Trout each making MLB Minimum or $450,000. Just absurd amounts of money.

There is no doubt that the Angels have some terrible contracts with Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and now Albert Pujols, but things are going to clear up in their outfield after this season with Hunter and Abreu both coming off the books. This year however, the team doesn't want to stunt the develop of Trout, who is clearly ready to play everyday. This leaves the Angels with a few options: 1. Cut Hunter and eat the remaining $18 Mil. 2. Trade away Bourjos, hampering the future to try to win now. 3. Suck it up and keep either Trout or Bourjos in the minors/on the bench.

I would've thought that the Angels would gladly take option 1 and stack the outfield with Wells, Trout and Bourjos but, according to this report, Bourjos may be on the trade block. If this is indeed the case, the Nationals need to try and make a deal for this to happen - though I have no clue what they would be interested in aside from Lannan.

The Angels have young, 4+ WAR players at each both SS (Kendrick) and 2B (Aybar) - eliminating Lombardozzi, Desmond, and Espinosa from the mix. They have first basemen galore in Albert Pujols, almost-ROY Mark Trumbo, and Kendrys Morales - eliminating LaRoche. They have too many outfielders already - eliminating Bernadina, Perez, and Hood. The only area where the Angels have an extra need is at catcher and I'm not sure that Jesus Flores is the piece that would put a Lannan-Bourjos deal over the top.

Ideally for the Angels, they would like to see at least one of the Nationals top prospects included in the trade but, outside of Harper, the rest of the top 5 (Rendon, Purke, Goodwin, and Meyer) is untouchable due to CBA rules requiring the most recent draft class to remain with their club for a year after being drafted.

So, where does this leave a possible trade? Who knows. Bourjos is definitely a piece that the Nats would love to add to their ballclub, cementing a future outfield of Harper, Bourjos, and Werth, but the two clubs don't seem to have enough in common to make a trade work.

Extension Talk

At this point in time baseball talk is at a bit of a calm before the storm - Fielder hasn't signed yet, the trade market is at a stand still, and players are into their last month of the off-season. And over the past few weeks there have been several extension discussions (both local and national media) about some of the Nats upper-caliber players. Let's dig into a few of these and see if they make sense for the ballclub.

Michael Morse: MLB Trade Rumors
- Morse is a unique candidate with no real comps in recent memory, MLBTR makes this point more than anything because it would be extremely difficult for both agent and team to see what exactly the player is worth. His 2010 and 2011 campaigns are well documented, but what he lacks is a long track record of success - working into the teams' favor. The fact remains that Morse will be 30 in March and is still under team control for another two seasons. Tim Dierkes of MLBTR suggests a 3-year/$18.5 Million deal, with the Nats trying to get a $10 Million option for the next year. Morse is pretty much at the tail of his peak, but looking at his value the past two years (tied to WAR) this would be a very team-friendly deal.

John Lannan: Adam Kilgore - Washington Post
- This is kind of awkward... John Lannan has been the Nats Opening Day starter in both 2009 and 2010 - only to get the yips and need a little time at Harrisburg to work out some kinks. Coming into the 2012 season however, Lannan is going into Spring Training in competition for the 5th spot against fellow lefty Ross Detwiler. Kilgore argues that Lannan's durability is just a valuable to the club as his numbers; he isn't necessarily wrong. It should be noted that Lannan has two more years of club control before reaching free agency. Adam Kilgore suggests that something around 3-years/$20 Million to be an appropriate deal. I can't see a player that might be the odd man out come Opening Day (love the options game) getting a $20 Million dollar extension.

Tyler Clippard: MLB Trade Rumors
- Like Michael Morse, Tyler Clippard poses a very rare case in terms of potential future earnings due to a variety of factors. Working in the teams' favor, Clippard isn't a closer and therefore he doesn't have saves to pad his resume in an arbitration hearing - saving the ballclub money. Although he has been one of the top relievers in all of baseball, closer or not, the market doesn't really reward non-closer relievers top dollar or multi-year deals. We have written in this space several times about how Tyler Clippard is not human; citing durability and freakish stats. Rizzo and company usually don't do multi-year deals for relievers, but Dierkes writes that Clippard's numbers have only improved - and that he is only 27 years-old. Based on his projected 2012 Arbitration amount, MLBTR suggests a 2-year/$4.5 Million or 3-year/8$ Million deal for the bespectacled reliever.

For the record - I would take the Clippard and Morse deals and hold off on Lannan.

Which of these deals would you take? Who else would you extend on the Nats (be more creative than Zimmerman(n))?

A Few Good Men: 3 - Lannan

Today is Part 3 of our 44 part series examining each player that suited up in a Curly W this year. Yes, this is probably a fool's errand and the worst CapBall move since Joe asked us to take over this blog - but it's also fun.

So sit back, relax, grab a nice cup of (Irish) coffee and enjoy the ride.

John Lannan

How he became a Nat: Drafted in the 11th round of the 2005 Draft.

The Raw Numbers:
Record - 10-13
IP - 184.2
ERA - 3.70
FIP - 4.28
WHIP - 1.46
K/9 - 5.17
WAR- 1.3

Key Stat: 89.8. This was John Lannan's average fastball velocity this year. It is a full 1.0 MPH faster than it was last year and 1.3 MPH faster than his career average - 3.1 MPH faster than his rookie year . I believe that this was directly related to the increase in K/9 from the previous two years, and the decrease in both ERA and HR/9 (both a career best's).

Best Game: May 27th vs. the Friars - a 2-1 Nats Win. John Lannan threw 7.2 innings of 2 hit, 0 run ball. His GB/FB ratio was 14/6, the sign of a solid sinker. Lannan doesn't get much better than this.

Worst Game: May 5th vs. the Phillies - a 7-3 Nats loss. One of the biggest issues plaguing John Lannan is that the Phillies essentially own the 27 year-old lefty - to the tune of a 2-12 career record with a 5.79 ERA. This start pretty much summed up his failings. 2.0 IP. 7 hits. 6 R. 6 ER. 1 HR allowed. 1 HBP. Ouch.

CapBall Grade: C+. Lannan righted the ship this year after a rocky 2010. He posted career best numbers in ERA and FIP but he simply must reduce the amount of walks (76 - 8th worst of any NL Starter) and HBP (7 - a career high) to be able to beat the tough NL East competition.

2012 Nats Status: Lannan will be given a spot in the rotation next year, along with Strasburg and Zimmermann. However, if Milone, Peacock and Detwiler can all repeat their 2011 performances and Lannan doesn't continue to improve I wouldn't be surprised to see Lannan traded mid-season to make room for someone else.

Lannan's Secret to Success

John Lannan has had a great season so far, especially considering that last year at this time he was a week away from a trip to Syracuse for poor performance. So far he is on pace for career highs in ERA, FIP, WAR, and wins. What is most interesting is that when I have watched him pitch, he has been getting rocked - the opposing players have been hitting everything very hard. It seemed like every hit ball in the first 4 innings yesterday was a rocket shot that our suddenly stellar defense was about to track down or make a play on.

Being a big believer in stats, I went to fangraphs to try and figure out why/how Lannan has been able to put up these career numbers. But here's the thing. I couldn't figure it out.

- His K/9 is higher than his career average, but not a career high.
- His BB/9 is his highest ever.
- His BABIP is .283. His career BABIP? .283.
- His WHIP is 1.41. His career WHIP? Yep. 1.41.
- His GB% (Groundball Percentage) is a mere 0.7% below his career average.
- His BAA (Batting Average Against) is only .007 lower than his career average.

I just don't get it.

At times it seems like Lannan is working quicker on the mound, but at times he seems to be Yunesky Maya slow.

Seemingly the only three things I can find are slightly obscure, and don't fully explain his 2011 success.

- His Z-Contact% (Percentage of contact of pitches in the strike zone) is down more than 5% from his career total. Meaning, he is getting more swings and misses.

- Lannan's fastball is sitting at 89.7 MPH, 1.5 MPH higher than his career average. And even more interesting is that his fastball velocity has gotten faster each year since he debuted in 2007 with an 86.7 MPH average fastball velocity.

- I know his BABIP is right in line with his career average, but the Nationals have been played stellar defense of late, setting a new Franchise Record errorless streak.

Any of you CapBallers have any other idea why Lannan is on his way to a career year?

John Lannan Has Turned a Corner

One year ago today, John Lannan was sporting a 5.00 ERA and a 2-3 record. He struggled to throw strikes and struggled even more to keep the ball down in the strike zone. Lannan, the Nats' Opening Day starter last season, was just a few starts away from being demoted to AA Harrisburg for over a month.

Fast forward to last night's dominating performance against the San Francisco Giants. Lannan made his way through 7 innings, gave up just 1 run on 4 hits, induced 9 ground balls, and got 6 strikeouts. He was the benefactor of some decent offense by the Nats, too. Despite all of that, Lannan ended up with a no decision because a combination of Coffey, Burnett, and Rodriguez were unable to hold on. Anyways, Lannan has made it through at least 6 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. In those same 6 starts, he's induced double digit ground ball outs in half of them.

In 2 of his last 3 starts, he has been the victim of a blown save in his dominating 2-hit shutout performance over 7.2 innings against the Padres on May 27th and a blown 3-run lead on Monday night against the Giants after pitching 7 strong innings. All in all, the Nats are 7-5 (as of 1:03 am EDT Tuesday) 7-6 (edit: Tuesday 9:30am) when John Lannan starts the baseball game, and that ain't bad. The only pitcher in the Nationals rotation with more team victories in starts is Jason Marquis (9).

With every outing, Lannan seems to get stronger, and in 12 of his 13 starts, Lannan has made it through at least 5 innings. His breaking stuff is getting better; his fastball is getting harder with more consistency, getting up into the low-90s. He's striking batters out with increasing frequency. His BB/9 is right at the league average: 3.30, so he's had pretty good control.

With all this good news, I thought there must be something out there that would indicate he was due for an implosion. I read and read and even looked at our trusty friend, BABIP, for assistance. Even there, Lannan is right at the league average: around .300. With the way Lannan has pitched lately, it looks like he may be legitimately here to stay. Maybe that first win over Philadelphia is all John needed to help his career fly upwards. Maybe it's just an anomaly, and he'll come crashing down to mediocrity.

What do you think, CapBallers? Is this the real John Lannan?

Nationals Pending Contracts

Today, MLB Trade Rumors posted the contract issues the Nats face in 2012. We're going to go over the issues we think loom largest for the Nats in the next off-season. We know it's a ways off, but it's always fun to get worried really, really early.

1. 11 Pending Free Agents

• If they don't offer any contract extensions this season, the Nats are slated to have 11 players on the open market this coming off-season. Most are veteran journeymen that will either go by the wayside or sign low cost contract extensions late this season. However, there are some of note: Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez, Chien-Ming Wang, and Livan Hernandez.
• The Nats have to decide if Marquis is worth re-signing. They may do so before the trading deadline, because according to MLBTR, the team would save $2.5 million if they unloaded him before the deadline. The Nats record in July may have a lot to do with that.
• Pudge is a Hall of Fame catcher that may no longer be extremely valuable to the club with Ramos, Flores, and Norris in the wings. I understand the player/coach mantra, but a spot on the 25-man roster is a valuable commodity.
• Wang may make the team's decision easy if he doesn't appear this season. He's cheap for his potential, but the Nats can only wait on him so long.
• Livo will be the truly interesting case. He's slowly become the recurring face of the pitching staff. First ever Nats Opening Day pitcher, back again to do it in 2011, and he's certainly a fan favorite. With the way the Nats pitching staff is evolving, Strasburg's return, Detwiler's improvement, and Maya's progression, the team may just run out of rotation spots for the old, reliable starter.

2. Arbitration Eligible Players

• Four players stick out on this list, too: Tyler Clippard, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Morse, and John Lannan.
• Tyler Clippard is going to command a massive arbitration payday. He's currently only making $443,000 and is arguably the best reliever the Nats have. I'm not an arbitration expert, but I think Clipp will get the biggest pay bump, whether done before or during arbitration.
• JZimm is marked for $415,000 in 2011, and so he'll see a huge jump, too. Considering he's widely touted as the Nats #2 for the foreseeable future, it's worth the money, but it'll be expensive.
• Michael Morse is another beast in itself. Morse makes just over $1 million this season, and if you count 2010 and spring 2011, he was due for a big raise. But he's cooled off, almost staggeringly during the regular season. The Nats may find that Morse isn't worth what he may get in arbitration and might jettison that ship before we get there. Stay tuned to Morse's stats for the rest of this season. This will be a huge development.
• John Lannan, the Nats 2-time Opening Day starter, is another one of those who knows. Lannan's inconsistencies over the last 2 seasons are staggering, but he's a fine left hander to have at the bottom of the rotation. We're big Lannan fans here at Capitol Baseball, but with Lannan currently making $2.75 million, his net worth might exceed his asset to the club. Stay tuned here, too.

What do you think about the pending free agents and arbitration eligible Nats for this coming off-season? We'd love to hear from you. Sound off in the comments.

25 in 25: John Lannan (#19)

In 7 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.

Today, we add John Lannan to our esteemed list of current Nats.

Why?: Going into the 2011 season, starting pitching became a concern for the Nationals when they lost Strasburg, hence the one year contract for Livan Hernandez. But beyond Livo and Jason Marquis, the Nats had no guarantees for the starting spots in the rotation. The next logical choice, though, was John Lannan.

Lannan has been the Opening Day starter (a role he was never really qualified for, but there were no other real options) the last two seasons, and we already know he won't start on Opening Day this year. But despite his breakdown in the middle of 2010, Lannan is one of the best options that the Nationals have right now.

What to expect?: Lannan should never be an Opening Day starter or a #2 guy ever again. Lannan is a lefty, though, and as such he might end up as a #2 rotation guy to start this year to break up the righties. We believe John Lannan is a #3 or later guy, and we think he can flourish when facing other #3 and #4 starters. It's not realistic for John Lannan to succeed against Roy Halladay or Tommy Hanson or Josh Johnson. It is realistic for him to succeed against R.A. Dickey or Joe Blanton.

Expect Lannan to get back to his roots, ground balls and low strikeout counts. Also, expect him to stay with the big club all year; there will be no mid-season demotions for the lefty in 2011.

John Lannan: The Nationals New Stopper?

It feels like not long ago that bloggers across the Natosphere were writing off John Lannan.  As a matter of fact, it was this season.  Actually, it was just 3 months ago that Lannan was demoted to AA Harrisburg and struggled there for about a month.  But Lannan came back in August, and since then, he's been staggeringly impressive.

In June and July, the Nats stopper was Stephen Strasburg.  Unfortunately, his fate is yet to be determined following Tommy John surgery, but he will certainly not don a Nationals jersey for at least another 12 months, and probably not until 2012. 

Livan Hernandez had also filled that role early in the season, but since August 2nd, Livo is just 3-5.  In that same time period, he's given up 7 or more runs on 3 occasions. 

Jason Marquis has been... well... we'll go with inconsistent.  I feel like I'm understating it a bit here, but he's either given up nothing or given away the whole kit and kaboodle.  Twice this year he hasn't made it from the 1st inning....  Not the stuff of a stopper.

And then there's post All-Star Break John Lannan.  That version of Lannan is 6-2 since his return to the Nats on August 1st.  He's struck out out 3 or more batters in all of his outings in the second half.  His 2nd half ERA is just 3.07, and he's thrown 6.6 strikeouts every 9 innings.  Not to mention he's pitched well enough and deep enough into games to earn a decision in all but one start since his return.

This, my friends, is the stuff of the Nationals best pitcher.  It's going to certainly generate an interesting debate in the offseason if Lannan can finish his last 3 starts of the season as strong as he's been lately.  The Nats have no clear Opening Day 2011 starter with Strasburg done.  Jordan Zimmermann has certainly not made a particularly strong case for himself.  Livan Hernandez's first half makes a case, but his second half may show that it was a fluke.

Like it or not, John Lannan has been the Nats strongest second half starter.  If he can finish strong, we'll see if the Nats decide to ride that into Opening Day 2011 for the third straight season.