The Nats sprinted to the finish line en route to a 80-81 finish primarily on the backs on young talent. Conceivably, there is a realistic way that the Nats could be contenders in the 2012 season - if things break the right way. There will be young talent (Espinosa, Ramos) complete with veteran leadership (Werth, Wang) - but the team will need to improve in a few key areas; mainly CF and bench. Lest we forget that Rizzo is always on the hunt for starting pitching. Let's take a look at a few of the free agent options that could possibly be a fit for the 2012 Nats - ignoring Pujols, Fielder, and Wilson.
CF - Grady Sizemore - 29 years old - 0.2 WAR in 71 Games
- Yesterday the Indians decided to cut ties with their former 3x All-Star CF due to a stunning lack of production and a string of injury riddled seasons. Since 2008, Grady Sizemore has been placed on the DL a whopping 5 times - Elbow and 4x Knee. Now, it might be a fools errand to go after such a player, but he will be a cheap option in CF as opposed to Upton and Span. It should be noted that Sizemore was drafted by the Expos and is still only 29 years old. It might be worth taking a flier on the off chance that Sizemore can repeat his 7.4 WAR performance from 2008. Sizemore is also the youngest CF Free Agent out there...
CF - Coco Crisp - 32 years old today - 2.2 WAR in 136 Games
- Sizemore is sure to get the angel's share of the buzz coming into the off-season, but Crisp has been a more consistent player over the past few years. His defense has taken a bit of a downturn over the past few seasons, but he is just a season removed from a 15.5 UZR/150 in 2010. Is it worry-some to put a 32 year-old in the most active of the outfield positions? Absolutely, but there aren't a lot of cheap options out there. Oh yea, and he had 49 steals last year...
SP - Mark Buehrle - 33 years old - 3.4 WAR in 31 Starts
- I would rather have Mark Buehrle in the rotation than CJ Wilson. There. I said it. He is a veteran pitcher that knows how to pitch to contact and win ballgames - 10th best Contact% in all of baseball last year. Pitching over 200 innings each of the last 11 seasons, with 8 of those seasons with ERA's under 4 and none over 5. Talk about the model of consistency. With a solid defense behind him, he could easily pitch for another 7 years (not that I would want to sign him for that long...).
LHRP - Dontrelle Willis - 30 years old - 0.8 WAR in 13 Starts
- Curveball. Yes. Dontrelle Willis could be a target for the Nats 2012 bullpen, as well he should be. After posting a 9.38, 7.49, and 5.62 ERA in '08-'10, Willis made his way back to the majors with the Cincinnati Reds and proved to be a solid option, in the beginning - he posted an 8.27 ERA in the month of September. The thing is, he was absolutely dominant against lefties all year, holding them to a staggering .127 BAA (Batting Average Against) - just 7 hits in 60 ABs. He could definitely replace Slaten and Burnett as the lefties out of the pen - as well as giving the team an easy spot starter in case of injury.
UTIL - Mark DeRosa - 37 years old - 0.1 WAR in 47 Games
- This is a player along the same vein as Jerry Hairston in 2011 - a veteran who is willing to accept his bench role while being able to play all defensive positions. He won't light the world on fire with his offense or defense but the versatility more than makes up for the deficiencies. This seems like the exact type of player that Davey Johnson wants on his bench.
*This is not a target list - or a wish list - it is simply a watch list*
Be creative, CapBallers, who do you see the Nats targeting this offseason?
Showing posts with label Free Agents. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Agents. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Nationals Pending Contracts
Today, MLB Trade Rumors posted the contract issues the Nats face in 2012. We're going to go over the issues we think loom largest for the Nats in the next off-season. We know it's a ways off, but it's always fun to get worried really, really early.
1. 11 Pending Free Agents
- If they don't offer any contract extensions this season, the Nats are slated to have 11 players on the open market this coming off-season. Most are veteran journeymen that will either go by the wayside or sign low cost contract extensions late this season. However, there are some of note: Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez, Chien-Ming Wang, and Livan Hernandez.
- The Nats have to decide if Marquis is worth re-signing. They may do so before the trading deadline, because according to MLBTR, the team would save $2.5 million if they unloaded him before the deadline. The Nats record in July may have a lot to do with that.
- Pudge is a Hall of Fame catcher that may no longer be extremely valuable to the club with Ramos, Flores, and Norris in the wings. I understand the player/coach mantra, but a spot on the 25-man roster is a valuable commodity.
- Wang may make the team's decision easy if he doesn't appear this season. He's cheap for his potential, but the Nats can only wait on him so long.
- Livo will be the truly interesting case. He's slowly become the recurring face of the pitching staff. First ever Nats Opening Day pitcher, back again to do it in 2011, and he's certainly a fan favorite. With the way the Nats pitching staff is evolving, Strasburg's return, Detwiler's improvement, and Maya's progression, the team may just run out of rotation spots for the old, reliable starter.
2. Arbitration Eligible Players
- Four players stick out on this list, too: Tyler Clippard, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Morse, and John Lannan.
- Tyler Clippard is going to command a massive arbitration payday. He's currently only making $443,000 and is arguably the best reliever the Nats have. I'm not an arbitration expert, but I think Clipp will get the biggest pay bump, whether done before or during arbitration.
- JZimm is marked for $415,000 in 2011, and so he'll see a huge jump, too. Considering he's widely touted as the Nats #2 for the foreseeable future, it's worth the money, but it'll be expensive.
- Michael Morse is another beast in itself. Morse makes just over $1 million this season, and if you count 2010 and spring 2011, he was due for a big raise. But he's cooled off, almost staggeringly during the regular season. The Nats may find that Morse isn't worth what he may get in arbitration and might jettison that ship before we get there. Stay tuned to Morse's stats for the rest of this season. This will be a huge development.
- John Lannan, the Nats 2-time Opening Day starter, is another one of those who knows. Lannan's inconsistencies over the last 2 seasons are staggering, but he's a fine left hander to have at the bottom of the rotation. We're big Lannan fans here at Capitol Baseball, but with Lannan currently making $2.75 million, his net worth might exceed his asset to the club. Stay tuned here, too.
What do you think about the pending free agents and arbitration eligible Nats for this coming off-season? We'd love to hear from you. Sound off in the comments.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Nats Still Trying
A report came out yesterday on MLBTradeRumors.com about former Padres pitcher Chris Young and his potential destinations this offseason. In his report, Buster Olney of ESPN states that the right hander is down to two options; the Mets and the Nats. This is the first time this Hot Stove League that the Nats have been connected in any way to Young, though it doesn't come as much of a surprise seeing as though every pitcher the team has targeted has signed elsewhere, sometimes for less money. Lets break this down via old-school pros and cons list.
Pros:
- Has been a positive WAR player every year of his career minus an injury-plagued 2009.
- Would be a cheap, but incentive-laden, contract (around $2 million guaranteed).
- Spent 3 years in the Expos-system (not really a pro, just a cool thing).
- Bill James projects him as having a winning record with a 3.46 ERA.
- Former All-Star with a chip on his shoulder after being denied a club option for 2011.
- In his four 2011 appearances he went 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
- Our rotation is less than set and, if healthy, he can be a top 3 starter for us.
- Baseball Reference comparable players include Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza.
- He is 6' 10".
Cons:
- Has been on the DL four times in the past four years.
- Two of those injuries have been season ending injuries.
- Both of those season ending injuries have been pitching shoulder related.
- Has only played 18 games in the past two seasons.
- We already have Chien-Ming Wang as a pitching reclamation project.
- Low velocity 85-90.
- Baseball Reference comparable players also include Erik Bedard and Mark Prior.
In case you didn't notice, Chris Young has been injured more than Jesus Flores, and that is the only reason that the Nats should be hesitant in this endeavor. But this is a year that is shaping up to be a repeat of the ill-fated 2007 starting pitcher cattle-call edition of Spring Training. If the Nats sign Young, he would join Lannan, Marquis, Zimmermann, Mock, Martis, Atilano, Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Martin, Stammen, Chico, Wang, Broderick, Tatusko and whoever else the Nats invite to Spring Training (maybe Jason Simontacchi). Many people fighting for one spot will bring the level of competition in Spring Training up a few notches, especially if one (or two) of those pitchers is trying to complete a long and arduous comeback from injury to prove his worth.
If you were crazy enough to ask for my opinion I would tell you that the Nats should go for it. Its a win-win situation. In the grand scheme of things this would be around a $2 million dolllar investment. Downside being wasted money and the upside being a repeat performance of his 2007 season where he posted a 3.12 ERA. And if I'm in charge, I spend $2 million for that proven starter's potential every day of the week.
Thoughts? Let's see them in the comments.
Pros:
- Has been a positive WAR player every year of his career minus an injury-plagued 2009.
- Would be a cheap, but incentive-laden, contract (around $2 million guaranteed).
- Spent 3 years in the Expos-system (not really a pro, just a cool thing).
- Bill James projects him as having a winning record with a 3.46 ERA.
- Former All-Star with a chip on his shoulder after being denied a club option for 2011.
- In his four 2011 appearances he went 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
- Our rotation is less than set and, if healthy, he can be a top 3 starter for us.
- Baseball Reference comparable players include Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza.
- He is 6' 10".
Cons:
- Has been on the DL four times in the past four years.
- Two of those injuries have been season ending injuries.
- Both of those season ending injuries have been pitching shoulder related.
- Has only played 18 games in the past two seasons.
- We already have Chien-Ming Wang as a pitching reclamation project.
- Low velocity 85-90.
- Baseball Reference comparable players also include Erik Bedard and Mark Prior.
In case you didn't notice, Chris Young has been injured more than Jesus Flores, and that is the only reason that the Nats should be hesitant in this endeavor. But this is a year that is shaping up to be a repeat of the ill-fated 2007 starting pitcher cattle-call edition of Spring Training. If the Nats sign Young, he would join Lannan, Marquis, Zimmermann, Mock, Martis, Atilano, Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Martin, Stammen, Chico, Wang, Broderick, Tatusko and whoever else the Nats invite to Spring Training (maybe Jason Simontacchi). Many people fighting for one spot will bring the level of competition in Spring Training up a few notches, especially if one (or two) of those pitchers is trying to complete a long and arduous comeback from injury to prove his worth.
If you were crazy enough to ask for my opinion I would tell you that the Nats should go for it. Its a win-win situation. In the grand scheme of things this would be around a $2 million dolllar investment. Downside being wasted money and the upside being a repeat performance of his 2007 season where he posted a 3.12 ERA. And if I'm in charge, I spend $2 million for that proven starter's potential every day of the week.
Thoughts? Let's see them in the comments.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
BREAKING NEWS: Nats Sign Power LH Bat
No, Adam Dunn is gone. Carlos Pena is already enjoying another losing season on the South Side. It's not Adam LaRoche (yet).
We got Matt Stairs!
Who? Yea the pinch-hit machine that routinely kills fastballs for a living.
You may not know it, but Matt Stairs has 265 career Home Runs. That's incredible. Has anyone in their career hit 250 dingers more quietly than Stairs? His career Slugging percentage is a solid .481. Stairs has posted a positive WAR in 3 of the past 4 seasons, and he has a 16.2 WAR over his career. Over that 19 year career, he has put up very solid numbers per 162 games; 23 HR, 79 RBI, .264 AVG.
But most importantly, he can come in in a key situation and crush a pitch into the Nats bullpen.
Born in Canada, Stairs has said that the only reason he played professional baseball was because he wasn't a good enough hockey player. He will provide veteran leadership and a grinder-type attitude to a young and inexperienced clubhouse.
Stairs was signed in 1989 as a pitcher/shortstop (!!!) by the Montreal Expos, he made his major league debut with the team in May of 1992. By the time Spring Training rolls around, Stairs will be 43 years hold, having made his Major League debut 5 months before Bryce Harper was born. He will take his minor league deal, with an invite to Spring Training, and break camp with the club once the regular season begins. The consummate professional, he knows by now that he won't get too much action in the field and that his true value comes with his power bat off the bench.
Giving us something off the bench that the Nats have not seen since the early days of Wily Mo Pena and Alex Escobar (Former Nats Greats?). Using his patented "Swing-Hard-In-Case-You-Hit-It" approach, I look forward to his exploits in a Curly W.
In case of emergency, use Stairs.
We got Matt Stairs!
Who? Yea the pinch-hit machine that routinely kills fastballs for a living.
You may not know it, but Matt Stairs has 265 career Home Runs. That's incredible. Has anyone in their career hit 250 dingers more quietly than Stairs? His career Slugging percentage is a solid .481. Stairs has posted a positive WAR in 3 of the past 4 seasons, and he has a 16.2 WAR over his career. Over that 19 year career, he has put up very solid numbers per 162 games; 23 HR, 79 RBI, .264 AVG.
But most importantly, he can come in in a key situation and crush a pitch into the Nats bullpen.
Born in Canada, Stairs has said that the only reason he played professional baseball was because he wasn't a good enough hockey player. He will provide veteran leadership and a grinder-type attitude to a young and inexperienced clubhouse.
Stairs was signed in 1989 as a pitcher/shortstop (!!!) by the Montreal Expos, he made his major league debut with the team in May of 1992. By the time Spring Training rolls around, Stairs will be 43 years hold, having made his Major League debut 5 months before Bryce Harper was born. He will take his minor league deal, with an invite to Spring Training, and break camp with the club once the regular season begins. The consummate professional, he knows by now that he won't get too much action in the field and that his true value comes with his power bat off the bench.
Giving us something off the bench that the Nats have not seen since the early days of Wily Mo Pena and Alex Escobar (Former Nats Greats?). Using his patented "Swing-Hard-In-Case-You-Hit-It" approach, I look forward to his exploits in a Curly W.
In case of emergency, use Stairs.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Winter Meetings Scrap Heap
Jim Bowden's favorite words, other than "five-tool player", are "reclamation project". Players released or injured that are low-risk, high-reward type people. He had a knack for taking players who were past their prime to try and find lightning in the bottle. To my calculations this worked a grand total of once (See: Dimitri Young). You saw arguably the first of these in yesterday's edition of Former Nats Greats, and you will most certainly see more as that particular series rolls onward. Why do I bring up old wounds? Because, as of right now, we are still taking chances on these projects; First, Chien-Ming Wang and now, Brandon Webb.
Lets review the facts and figures on both of these former Cy Young contenders.
First, Chien-Ming Wang.
Wang debuted for the Yankees in 2005 and did an admirable job jumping into the rotation. In 18 games he put up 8 wins with a 4.02 ERA, to go with many other average statistics. This debut was only a start to a stellar 2 years stretch in his career.
In 2006 he won 19 games with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.31. Relying heavily on his commanding sinker-ball, he was able to get a GB% (Ground Ball Percentage) of 62.8%, an absolutely outstanding number. The other number from '06 that stuck out to me is an equally amazing 0.5 HR/9; that's half a HR per 9 innings. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was 4.7. All that domination lead to him finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting to then-Twinkie Johan Santana.
His stellar numbers continued through 2007, though the Cy Young voters didn't take near as much notice despite similar statistics. He had an ERA of 3.70, a WHIP of 1.29, a higher K/9 ratio than 2006, and a 58.4% GB%; all while winning 19 games for the 2nd straight year. His amazing 0.5 HR/9 from 2006 went down to .41 HR/9 in 2007.
2008 started with a bang. Wang was the first pitcher to win 6 games in the AL, getting to that marker by May 2nd. That was the beginning of the end for him, he was never the same for the rest of the year. Only going on to win 2 more games the rest of the year; a year that saw him play his last game of the year on June 15th.
2009 was much more of the same. 9 starts and a 1-6 record with a Marquis-like 9.64 ERA. What's worse is that, a year after winning his 6th game on May 2nd, he didn't win his first game of the '09 until June 28th. Soon it was shoulder ligament surgery and the rest is history.
Wang, when healthy, is a top of the rotation starter. Last year we took a $2 million dollar gamble that did not pay off, and last week we cut our losses when we non-tendered the veteran RHP. Do we take the chance again?
Brandon Webb
Another sinker-baller, the former Diamondbacks ace has a much more storied history, despite the fact that he has been stuck in the desert for the past 8 years.
Over a three year span from 2006-08 Webb pitched well over 225 innings each year, while putting up, in order, 16, 18, and 22 wins (which we now know is Rizzo's favorite stat...). Hard as it is to believe, his peripheral numbers are even better than this.
ERA - 3.10, 3.01, and 3.30.
WHIP - 1.13, 1.19, and 1.20.
GB% - 66.3, 61.8, and 64.2.
And my favorite WAR - 7.0, 6.9, and 6.0.
In a three-year span Brandon Webb was worth a total of almost 20 wins above an average NL starting pitcher! That stat is absurd! The Baseball Writers Association of America agreed with the numbers when they voted Webb the Cy Young Award winner in 2006. In '07 and '08 he was voted 2nd place for the same award, behind Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum respectively.
Sadly, on Opening Day of 2009, Webb managed to only get through 4 innings vs the Rockies before his season ended with a bad bout of Shoulder Bursitis. He hasn't seen the major leagues since.
His path back has been equally as rocky, and according to some reports his fastball hasn't gotten above the mid-80s. As of right now there seem to be at least 3, and as many as 6 teams interested in the former Cy Young Award winner; per mlbtraderumors.com.
Final Thoughts
It has been said that the Nats are trying to re-sign Wang after his non-tender, and I think it would be a good idea for the club to do that. I think the best possible scenario would be a base salary of about $1 million with incentives that can increase the total to around $4 million; peanuts. We could cash in with a resurgent pitcher with an enormous Taiwanese following (both in terms of fans and in media) that could expand the Nats' brand to the Far East. Well worth the bargain basement price.
Webb is a far different story. Baseball sources, as reported by mlbtraderumors.com, has said that Webb is going to be seeking a deal similar to the one signed by Ben Sheets last year where the oft-injured pitcher received $10 million after missing the entire 2009 season. The Nats would have to take a large payroll gamble just for the chance to catch lightning in a bottle.
Every now and then there will be a player who, despite extraordinary odds, is able to make a legitimate comeback (See: Rick Ankiel). But for every Meat Hook, there are 10 Ben Sheets; who went 4-9 before missing the last 2 months of the season with a torn flexor muscle in his pitching elbow.
Is it worth it?
Lets review the facts and figures on both of these former Cy Young contenders.
First, Chien-Ming Wang.
Wang debuted for the Yankees in 2005 and did an admirable job jumping into the rotation. In 18 games he put up 8 wins with a 4.02 ERA, to go with many other average statistics. This debut was only a start to a stellar 2 years stretch in his career.
In 2006 he won 19 games with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.31. Relying heavily on his commanding sinker-ball, he was able to get a GB% (Ground Ball Percentage) of 62.8%, an absolutely outstanding number. The other number from '06 that stuck out to me is an equally amazing 0.5 HR/9; that's half a HR per 9 innings. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was 4.7. All that domination lead to him finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting to then-Twinkie Johan Santana.
His stellar numbers continued through 2007, though the Cy Young voters didn't take near as much notice despite similar statistics. He had an ERA of 3.70, a WHIP of 1.29, a higher K/9 ratio than 2006, and a 58.4% GB%; all while winning 19 games for the 2nd straight year. His amazing 0.5 HR/9 from 2006 went down to .41 HR/9 in 2007.
2008 started with a bang. Wang was the first pitcher to win 6 games in the AL, getting to that marker by May 2nd. That was the beginning of the end for him, he was never the same for the rest of the year. Only going on to win 2 more games the rest of the year; a year that saw him play his last game of the year on June 15th.
2009 was much more of the same. 9 starts and a 1-6 record with a Marquis-like 9.64 ERA. What's worse is that, a year after winning his 6th game on May 2nd, he didn't win his first game of the '09 until June 28th. Soon it was shoulder ligament surgery and the rest is history.
Wang, when healthy, is a top of the rotation starter. Last year we took a $2 million dollar gamble that did not pay off, and last week we cut our losses when we non-tendered the veteran RHP. Do we take the chance again?
Brandon Webb
Another sinker-baller, the former Diamondbacks ace has a much more storied history, despite the fact that he has been stuck in the desert for the past 8 years.
Over a three year span from 2006-08 Webb pitched well over 225 innings each year, while putting up, in order, 16, 18, and 22 wins (which we now know is Rizzo's favorite stat...). Hard as it is to believe, his peripheral numbers are even better than this.
ERA - 3.10, 3.01, and 3.30.
WHIP - 1.13, 1.19, and 1.20.
GB% - 66.3, 61.8, and 64.2.
And my favorite WAR - 7.0, 6.9, and 6.0.
In a three-year span Brandon Webb was worth a total of almost 20 wins above an average NL starting pitcher! That stat is absurd! The Baseball Writers Association of America agreed with the numbers when they voted Webb the Cy Young Award winner in 2006. In '07 and '08 he was voted 2nd place for the same award, behind Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum respectively.
Sadly, on Opening Day of 2009, Webb managed to only get through 4 innings vs the Rockies before his season ended with a bad bout of Shoulder Bursitis. He hasn't seen the major leagues since.
His path back has been equally as rocky, and according to some reports his fastball hasn't gotten above the mid-80s. As of right now there seem to be at least 3, and as many as 6 teams interested in the former Cy Young Award winner; per mlbtraderumors.com.
Final Thoughts
It has been said that the Nats are trying to re-sign Wang after his non-tender, and I think it would be a good idea for the club to do that. I think the best possible scenario would be a base salary of about $1 million with incentives that can increase the total to around $4 million; peanuts. We could cash in with a resurgent pitcher with an enormous Taiwanese following (both in terms of fans and in media) that could expand the Nats' brand to the Far East. Well worth the bargain basement price.
Webb is a far different story. Baseball sources, as reported by mlbtraderumors.com, has said that Webb is going to be seeking a deal similar to the one signed by Ben Sheets last year where the oft-injured pitcher received $10 million after missing the entire 2009 season. The Nats would have to take a large payroll gamble just for the chance to catch lightning in a bottle.
Every now and then there will be a player who, despite extraordinary odds, is able to make a legitimate comeback (See: Rick Ankiel). But for every Meat Hook, there are 10 Ben Sheets; who went 4-9 before missing the last 2 months of the season with a torn flexor muscle in his pitching elbow.
Is it worth it?
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Dunn Gone
Around 5pm the White Sox closed on a deal with Adam Dunn that will pay the slugger $56 million dollars over 4 years. Cue the violins and paper bags in NatsTown.
Done yet?
K. Good. Now lets look at what exactly this means for the Nats; good and bad.
Bad:
- The Nats lose a huge left-handed bat, a bat that hit 76 home runs in 2 years as a Nats; which places him 2nd overall in Nationals team history... in 2 years...
- Lose an on-base-machine. (.398 and .356 OBP in the past 2 years)
- Lose a clubhouse leader.
- Lose one of the best 3-4-5 lineups in baseball.
- Makes Zim sad.
Good
- 2 compensation draft picks; the 23rd overall, and then one in the compensation round right after the first round.
- Regardless of who is picked, a better defender. They will make Desi, Zim, and Espinosa better.
- Don't have to pay, or play, a 36 year-old 1B in a 40 year-old's body.
I think everyone in NatsTown knows by now that the home team won't be contending this year, and, most likely, not next year. The 2011 MLB Draft is a lot deeper than the 2010 Draft was and, with Rizzo's penchant for scouting, having 3 top 40 draft picks can pay quick dividends.
A big bat is not something that a last place team needs, its a luxury. Dunn was brought in because we lost out on Teixeira and we needed to find someone healthy to replace Nick Johnson. It was a need based situation. Once again, losing teams do not need sluggers; those that think otherwise need to simply look at our projected rotation for next year, where our need truly lies.
Adam Dunn was a fantastic National. I loved watching hit shots over the bullpen into the 2nd and 3rd deck. I will most certainly miss his goofy attitude and the pink gum hanging out of his mouth after every hit. It sucks that he is gone.
Defense and pitching build contenders and Dunn just doesn't fit into that mold; at least not in the National League.
Done yet?
K. Good. Now lets look at what exactly this means for the Nats; good and bad.
Bad:
- The Nats lose a huge left-handed bat, a bat that hit 76 home runs in 2 years as a Nats; which places him 2nd overall in Nationals team history... in 2 years...
- Lose an on-base-machine. (.398 and .356 OBP in the past 2 years)
- Lose a clubhouse leader.
- Lose one of the best 3-4-5 lineups in baseball.
- Makes Zim sad.
Good
- 2 compensation draft picks; the 23rd overall, and then one in the compensation round right after the first round.
- Regardless of who is picked, a better defender. They will make Desi, Zim, and Espinosa better.
- Don't have to pay, or play, a 36 year-old 1B in a 40 year-old's body.
I think everyone in NatsTown knows by now that the home team won't be contending this year, and, most likely, not next year. The 2011 MLB Draft is a lot deeper than the 2010 Draft was and, with Rizzo's penchant for scouting, having 3 top 40 draft picks can pay quick dividends.
A big bat is not something that a last place team needs, its a luxury. Dunn was brought in because we lost out on Teixeira and we needed to find someone healthy to replace Nick Johnson. It was a need based situation. Once again, losing teams do not need sluggers; those that think otherwise need to simply look at our projected rotation for next year, where our need truly lies.
Adam Dunn was a fantastic National. I loved watching hit shots over the bullpen into the 2nd and 3rd deck. I will most certainly miss his goofy attitude and the pink gum hanging out of his mouth after every hit. It sucks that he is gone.
Defense and pitching build contenders and Dunn just doesn't fit into that mold; at least not in the National League.
Cliff Lee: Who Cares?
Since the minute the Giants won the World Series, and now approaching winter meetings next Monday, all that anyone is talking about is Cliff Lee and the Yankees. Well... also Derek Jeter and the Yankees, but I'm way too tired of that story already. Everyone wants Cliff Lee, and who wouldn't?
Lee is, without a doubt, one of the best starting pitchers in baseball today. He's in the class with Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, David Price, and Adam Wainwright. After Lee won is Cy Young in 2008 with the Cleveland Indians, people started to notice. I'm not saying people didn't know who Cliff Lee was in the first 5 years of his career, but it's hard to get noticed in Cleveland. Pitchers, like Lee and Sabathia who came from Cleveland, get noticed in big markets (see: Philadelphia and New York, respectively)
But in the last 2 seasons, Lee has played for 4 major league teams. When you really think about that, it's absolutely staggering. After 7 and a half years in Cleveland, Cliff Lee has become a "hired gun."
After winning a Cy Young in Cleveland, Lee decided to cash out a few times on big time contending teams. First in Philadelphia, then Seattle (yes... at one point people thought they could contend in the AL West), and then in Texas. But after making it to the World Series in 2010, Cliff Lee has a decision to make. Does he continue this jumping around?
Clearly he won't. He's the only pitcher of true value on the market this year, which makes him even more valuable. Wherever Lee signs, it's going to be for an insane amount of money and a preposterous length of time. The kind of money and time that a 32 year old starting pitcher should never get. Sure, Cliff Lee is in the prime of his career today, but a 6 year deal means he ends up playing for that team way, way past his prime. We've seen it in almost every truly great pitcher in recent years, Maddux and Smoltz, Moyer and Wakefield, and countless other great pitchers.
So the question of how much is too much is just irrelevant here. Whatever Cliff wants, he'll get. And whatever that is, it'll almost certainly be too much.
But what about the Washington Nationals? How much will be too much if they were to try and sign Lee? Again, almost any amount of money. The Nationals don't need a Cliff Lee in 2011. I know that's a crazy thing to say, but his addition to the rotation gives the Nats a few extra wins and still a negligible chance at making the playoffs in the NL East. It also ties up more than $100 MILLION over the next few years that could be spent to sign young, talented pitchers like Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg for future years of success. And in the end, you almost certainly end up overpaying a fledgling former star.
I know these statements are controversial, and probably won't sit well with many in NatsTown, but I don't want Cliff Lee to be a National in 2011. Or in any future year. At some point, it will be the right time to sign a big name starting pitcher in his prime for a few years to really set the Nationals first true playoff push. But it's not now.
Lee is, without a doubt, one of the best starting pitchers in baseball today. He's in the class with Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, David Price, and Adam Wainwright. After Lee won is Cy Young in 2008 with the Cleveland Indians, people started to notice. I'm not saying people didn't know who Cliff Lee was in the first 5 years of his career, but it's hard to get noticed in Cleveland. Pitchers, like Lee and Sabathia who came from Cleveland, get noticed in big markets (see: Philadelphia and New York, respectively)
But in the last 2 seasons, Lee has played for 4 major league teams. When you really think about that, it's absolutely staggering. After 7 and a half years in Cleveland, Cliff Lee has become a "hired gun."
After winning a Cy Young in Cleveland, Lee decided to cash out a few times on big time contending teams. First in Philadelphia, then Seattle (yes... at one point people thought they could contend in the AL West), and then in Texas. But after making it to the World Series in 2010, Cliff Lee has a decision to make. Does he continue this jumping around?
Clearly he won't. He's the only pitcher of true value on the market this year, which makes him even more valuable. Wherever Lee signs, it's going to be for an insane amount of money and a preposterous length of time. The kind of money and time that a 32 year old starting pitcher should never get. Sure, Cliff Lee is in the prime of his career today, but a 6 year deal means he ends up playing for that team way, way past his prime. We've seen it in almost every truly great pitcher in recent years, Maddux and Smoltz, Moyer and Wakefield, and countless other great pitchers.
So the question of how much is too much is just irrelevant here. Whatever Cliff wants, he'll get. And whatever that is, it'll almost certainly be too much.
But what about the Washington Nationals? How much will be too much if they were to try and sign Lee? Again, almost any amount of money. The Nationals don't need a Cliff Lee in 2011. I know that's a crazy thing to say, but his addition to the rotation gives the Nats a few extra wins and still a negligible chance at making the playoffs in the NL East. It also ties up more than $100 MILLION over the next few years that could be spent to sign young, talented pitchers like Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg for future years of success. And in the end, you almost certainly end up overpaying a fledgling former star.
I know these statements are controversial, and probably won't sit well with many in NatsTown, but I don't want Cliff Lee to be a National in 2011. Or in any future year. At some point, it will be the right time to sign a big name starting pitcher in his prime for a few years to really set the Nationals first true playoff push. But it's not now.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Thoughts on Free Agency
In the past week, two of the Nats "target" free agent pitchers have signed contracts. Javier Vazquez signed a 1 year/$7mil deal with the Fish and, late on Monday, Jorge De La Rosa signed a 3 year/$32-33mil deal with the Rockies. Naturally the Natosphere has gotten a little crazy over these two developments. The usual refrains of "Lerner's are Cheap", "We can't evaluate talent", blah, blah, and blah.
I agree that it would be really nice to have picked up one of these guys to bolster our young rotation, but I'm certainly not crying that we didn't. Lets start with Jorge de la Rosa...
In the past 2 years his WAR (wins above replacement - from Fangraphs) went from 3.7 in '09 to 1.7 in '10. Before that makes sense to you, you should know that WAR is a complicated sabermatric statistic which uses all sorts of stats to calculate how many more wins per year a player is worth. So what this means is that in one year de la Rosa was worth 2 less wins than before. Which, calculated into dollars, is $13.6mil in '09 down to $7mil in '10.
His K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings) was down an entire strikeout, from 9.39 to 8.36. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching - reads like ERA, essentially only things pitchers control; HR, BB, K) went from 3.91 up to 4.30. And his BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play - basically how lucky a pitcher is) went down from .316 to .281 - which is pretty lucky.
On to Vazquez...
ALARM BELLS!!! This is a pitcher who is 34 years old, whose fastball went from an average of 91.1mph in '08 to a Livan-esque 88.7mph in '09. Ouch. To me this screams Scott Olsen as loud as possible. Based on zero stats, I am not taking this guy at a ridiculous $7mil/year, BTW Fangraphs had his value last year at NEGATIVE $800k.
Let's look at Vazquez bullet point style:
- '08 WAR - 6.5 -- '09 WAR - -0.2 (Yes, that means he was .2 BELOW a replacement player)
- '08 HR/9 - 0.83 -- '09 HR/9 - 1.83 (1 more HR every 9 innings...)
- '08 BABIP - .297 -- '09 BABIP - .276 (He was luckier last year than in '08!)
- '08 WHIP - 1.03 -- '09 WHIP - 1.40 (That's (BB+H)/IP )
- '08 FIP - 2.77 -- '09 FIP - 5.56 (WOW!)
- '08 K/9 - 9.77 -- '09 K/9 - 6.92 (I don't have words for this...)
So, what are we to glean from all this information? Sure, the Rockies and Fish could find lightning in a bottle, but they could also continue their obvious downward trends into Daniel Cabrera-ness. I am definitely not losing any sleep over going into next year with Zimmermann, Detwiler, Livan, a resurgant Marquis, and (hot spring training kid) as our rotation. I think I'll take my chances with the young guns.
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