Nats' Crazy Contract Clauses

Today, ESPN's Jayson Stark put together a fantastic list of "small print" catches from this year's contract signings. Here's a summary of the Nats have two players that have made the list. I highly recommend you head over there to read Stark's article, though. It's really fascinating. Especially the part about the SIX Pirates players, including former Nat Scott Olsen, that will get big bonuses if they are named World Series MVP. Yea... on to more realistic possibilities...

Jayson Werth - No surprises here. The hundred million dollar plus man's deal is not related to his beard though, unfortunately. It's written directly into Werth's contract that he will wear #28 in DC. No negotiation between him and Michael Morse about this, it seems. As long as Jayson's getting paid in DC, he'll be wearing #28.

Chien-Ming Wang - As Stark says, Wang's contract is incredibly incentive laden, so it's not surprising he's got a weird one here or there. But if this former AL pitcher out hits all NL pitchers in 2011 (should he even appear in a game), he'll earn an extra $50,000. If that happens though, it's probably the other millions that the Nationals will be more excited about, because it means he'll be winning and pitching a bucket of innings.

Honorable Mention former Nats 1B Adam Dunn - I don't mean to reopen old wounds here folks, but this honorable mention is due here. Dunn's new contract with the White Sox, where he'll be mainly a DH, will pay him $25,000 if he wins a Gold Glove. Not sure it would have made much of a difference if he was still playing in DC, though. (see: Pujols, Albert)

Jayson Werth over Adam Dunn: An Analysis

Major League Baseball's winter meetings hadn't even officially begun when the Nats started the meetings off with a huge bang by signing Jayson Werth to a 7-year, $126 million contract. This blockbuster deal will keep Jayson in a Nationals uniform until he turns 39. That's a long, long time. Especially when the Nats would have had to offer Adam Dunn fewer years and less money per year. So, was it the right call?

Initially, if you look at some generic stats, you could very easily lose it if you're a die hard Nats fan. Adam Dunn basically guarantees you at least 38 home runs every year, while Jayson Werth has never hit more than 36, and even that was probably an anomaly. Remember, Werth was hitting in Citizens Bank Park in half of his games played in the last 4 years. Furthermore, Dunn knocked in more than 100 runs in each of the last 3 years, while Werth has gotten 67, 99, and 85 in the last three seasons, respectively.

But we have to look beyond those numbers and dig into some other stats to find some of Werth's true value. Let's look at them in bullet-form. (If you're looking for a Sabermetric analysis, you're not gonna get it here. We're looking at straight up production.):

• Werth is capable of hitting near .300 (see partial season 2007 and 2010) while Adam Dunn hasn't hit above .270 in his entire career.
• Werth has stolen 20 bases in 2 of the last 3 years while Dunn hasn't stolen a single base since 2008.
• Jayson Werth hit 26 doubles in 2009 and 46 in 2010, while Dunn hit 29 in 2009, and 36 in 2010.
• While Dunn hits a lot of home runs, Werth's OPS in 2010 was .921 vs. Dunn's .892. Very comparable numbers.
• Werth has scored 73, 98, and 106 runs in the last 3 years, while Dunn has scored 79, 81, and 85 in those same seasons.

Sure, Werth's higher runs scored numbers are partially (mostly?) due to the fact that he played for the Phillies, while Dunn played for the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Reds during the same time. But you certainly can't argue with the stolen bases that will put Werth in scoring position more often, or with his ability to make extra base hits with his speed, or with the higher OPS last year.

Other factors besides offensive prowess certainly played into the decision, although the people over at FanGraphs believe that Werth and Dunn are far more equal offensively than people believe. Jayson Werth is clearly a better defensive player than Dunn. Though I am one of those that believe that Dunn was a significantly improved defensive player in 2010, you can't rule out the fact that Werth is a Gold Glove caliber outfielder. In 2009, Werth had the highest range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game of any right fielder in the National League. He has the kind of range to be a center fielder when a certain #1 overall draft pick is ready to come to the majors (spoiler: it's Bryce Harper).

Werth and Dunn are essentially the same age (Dunn is 6 months younger), so why offer him the long term deal and not Dunn? Size certainly played a factor. Adam Dunn is football player sized. He weighs nearly 300 lbs., which has a negative affect on a players physical ability over time. Werth, at 6'5" and only 220 lbs., is at a weight that will give his body more longevity in the game than the Big Donkey. He is more nimble, which gives the team a significant offensive and defensive advantage. Despite their similar ages, Werth is simply a younger player.

Do these thing justify 3 more years than Dunn was asking for? Does it justify the average of $18 million/year that Werth will be earning? It's truly impossible to know until he hits year 4 of this deal. But one thing is for sure, for the next 4 years while Jayson Werth plays in DC and Adam Dunn hits in Chi-Town, there will be endless comparisons in their stats. I'm thrilled with the sign, all things considered, and I think that a Zimmerman, Werth, Willingham 3-4-5 provides a different kind of punch, that's not necessarily bad. Now if the Nats now take this opportunity to unload the Hammer, we'll be having a different conversation right here on Capitol Baseball.

The great part about all this for Nats fans is that Mike Rizzo said "We're not finished," and he may have meant it according to Mark Zuckerman in his post this morning. The Nationals will be covered in the national sports media for the next few days, which is almost never bad. Keep checking in with Nats Insider for the breaking news and here at Capitol Baseball for analysis of any future moves.

Dunn Gone

Around 5pm the White Sox closed on a deal with Adam Dunn that will pay the slugger $56 million dollars over 4 years. Cue the violins and paper bags in NatsTown.

Done yet?

K. Good. Now lets look at what exactly this means for the Nats; good and bad.

Bad:
- The Nats lose a huge left-handed bat, a bat that hit 76 home runs in 2 years as a Nats; which places him 2nd overall in Nationals team history... in 2 years...
- Lose an on-base-machine. (.398 and .356 OBP in the past 2 years)
- Lose a clubhouse leader.
- Lose one of the best 3-4-5 lineups in baseball.
- Makes Zim sad.

Good
- 2 compensation draft picks; the 23rd overall, and then one in the compensation round right after the first round.
- Regardless of who is picked, a better defender. They will make Desi, Zim, and Espinosa better.
- Don't have to pay, or play, a 36 year-old 1B in a 40 year-old's body.

I think everyone in NatsTown knows by now that the home team won't be contending this year, and, most likely, not next year. The 2011 MLB Draft is a lot deeper than the 2010 Draft was and, with Rizzo's penchant for scouting, having 3 top 40 draft picks can pay quick dividends.

A big bat is not something that a last place team needs, its a luxury. Dunn was brought in because we lost out on Teixeira and we needed to find someone healthy to replace Nick Johnson. It was a need based situation. Once again, losing teams do not need sluggers; those that think otherwise need to simply look at our projected rotation for next year, where our need truly lies.

Adam Dunn was a fantastic National. I loved watching hit shots over the bullpen into the 2nd and 3rd deck. I will most certainly miss his goofy attitude and the pink gum hanging out of his mouth after every hit. It sucks that he is gone.

Defense and pitching build contenders and Dunn just doesn't fit into that mold; at least not in the National League.

Re-Signing Adam Dunn and a Special Thanks

First and foremost, on this Veterans Day 2010, I'd like to take the opportunity to thank all of those who have served and sacrificed for our country over the years to make this country what it is today. My ability to pontificate about baseball on a daily basis is because people have sacrificed for my right to do so over the last 234 years. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Now on to Adam Dunn. Ever since... well... all season, Ryan Zimmerman has been Adam Dunn's biggest advocate. There's a lot to explain for Zimmerman's love for Adam. First, almost every player on the Nationals in 2010 has said that Dunn is a crucial element of the chemistry created in the clubhouse. He truly cares about all the guys on that team.

But just think about the kind of season that Zimmerman just had. He finished the season hitting .307, the best of his career by 15 points. His second best? The year before in 2009, where he hit .292. Sure, those numbers are partially due to the fact that Zimmerman is entering the prime of his career and should only be getting better over the next few years. But what else was different compared to previous seasons? The guy hitting behind him.

For most of Adam Dunn's tenure with the Nationals, Zimmerman hit 3rd, Dunn hit 4th. So when a pitcher is looking at that lineup card, there are some real decisions to make. Do they pitch to Zimmerman to try to avoid the slugging Dunn? Do they pitch around Zimmerman and get to Dunn with Zimmerman on base? That 3-4 didn't make it easy on anyone, and was one of the most potent 3-4 spots in the National League, except for Braun-Fielder in Milwaukee and Utley-Howard in Philadelphia.

So with the thought of Adam Dunn not hitting behind him for the first time in 2 years, Zimmerman is justifiably concerned. Who is his protection? Let's explore those options:

• Josh Willingham: Willingham is a perfect 5 spot guy. He has a high OBP, but he doesn't typically hit for tremendous power.
• Michael Morse: Morse hits lots of line drives and hit for good average this year, but he's not a home run hitter.
• Free Agents: Whether you look at Huff, Peña, or really any other viable options at 1st base to replace done, none of them will replace a 40 HR/100 RBI hitter in Dunn, no mater how many strike outs he had (more than 200).

So it's truly no wonder that Zimm has been so high on Dunn. I'm sure the two have developed a great friendship as Zimmerman has said, but Zimmerman's numbers certainly play some part in the equation.

Sign Adam Dunn? Be Careful What You Wish For...

(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

On Tuesday night, the Nationals gave out "Mr. Walkoff" t-shirts to celebrate Ryan Zimmerman's notorious ability to hit the game-winning walkoff home run. But Adam Dunn happily took the Mr. Walkoff title that night. Dunn destroyed a ball to right center field, guaranteeing that the team would have an above .500 record at home for 2010 (they currently stand 41-39 with one game left at home).

Dunn has the 2nd most home runs in baseball now with 38, 4 behind the NL leader Albert Pujols. So the wave of "Sign Adam Dunn" has swelled across NatsTown to a fever pitch. Maybe for good reason. Dunn has hit a ton of homers, has driven in 103 RBI and counting, has a .361 on-base %, and an outstanding .547 slugging %.

On the flip side, the only person in baseball with more strikeouts than Dunn (191) is Mark Reynolds (206). While his defensive errors are down, and he has a .990 fielding %, that doesn't account for the balls that trickle by him seemingly every week.

People always say that Adam Dunn is "going to hit around 40 home runs every year," and they're probably right. For the next year or two. But Adam Dunn will be 31 years old on Opening Day 2011. By all accounts, he's demanding a contract somewhere around 4 years and $60 million. By the time his contract is up, Dunn will be 35 years old, which is not really a prime age for a power hitter.

With Dunn's relatively low batting average and incredibly high strikeout rate, unless he can blast 40 home runs, he is simply not helping his team. This year, he's been a crucial aspect of the Nationals team, both in stats and intangible clubhouse persona. Part of me worries that the Nats could have "Alfonso Soriano Syndrome" with Dunn if they sign him to a huge contract as he passes his prime.

But frankly, unless you're going to pick up a guy like Jayson Werth, who would fill a huge offensive and defensive void in the outfield for the Nats next year, I think the team absolutely must re-sign Dunn. I don't think it should be a given based solely on this year's performance. However, if you're not going to replace him with another above average bat and and a higher quality fielder, I don't see the point in wading into the free agent market.

For the Nats to land a big name in the free agent market, the team is going to have to overpay significantly in order to get that talent to choose the Nats over the Phillies, the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Dodgers, etc. I'm not saying that the Nationals won't have to over pay for Adam Dunn, but at least you're over paying for a guy that you know works in your clubhouse and for your fans.