You Can Never Have Enough Starting Pitching

Leave it to Mike Rizzo to sign a starter the day after we post our 2012 Pitching Predictions...

Check with us next time Mike. Yes. The Nats, already 7 or 8 starters deep, signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year deal yesterday, adding yet another arm to a crowded rotation. Now, 4 out of the 5 spots are basically locked down with Wang, Lannan, and Detwiler squeezed (squoze? squozen?) into the 5 spot, and with the rumors swirling about Lannan, it might come down to just Wang and Detwiler.

This move by Rizzo indicates to me that he wants to launch the Nats not only into relevancy, but into a deep playoff run this season; imagine the Nats new top 4 in a short series or even a 7 game series. That is a scary proposition for a potential playoff opponent. Most-importantly, he has done this without turning 2012 into an all-or-nothing year. Gio, Strasburg, and Zimmermann are all long-term pieces and should Detwiler step up, the Nats would have 4 young core starters. So, by signing EJax to a one year deal the Nats become serious contenders this year, without sacrificing the future.

Mike Rizzo called this signing and the Nats desire to add a centerfielder through the trade market "mutually exclusive". Methinks that a declaration of shenanigans is in order. Of course they are related, Rizzo can now shop Lannan, an eminently serviceable back of the rotation arm. Paired with several other pieces (Desmond, LaRoche, Bernandina, a rehabbing Chris Marerro, et al.), Rizzo may be able to swing a deal.

How likely is that? Lannan doesn't blow anyone's skirt up, but he is still young, he has shown the ability to pitch in the major leagues, and he is under team control for another 2 years. These are all things that have proven to be valued in the current baseball economy.

The saying "you can never have enough starting pitching" is true. Injuries happen and sometimes players just don't perform to the level their are capable, and in those instances, it's nice to have back-up. But the main reason this nugget is true is that a wealth of starting pitching gives you confidence. Today, Mike Rizzo paid $10 million dollars to Edwin Jackson. While it improved the on-field product, it also opened up 100 more options for the Nats in the trade market, bullpen make-up, and player development.

And that's why you can never have enough starting pitching.

Big Davey Style [UPDATE]

It's late and the Nats are still playing baseball after two blown saves in two innings from Storen and Coffey. But that's not the big news. As the beat writers reported earlier, Davey Johnson has been tapped to take over as Nats manager (possibly tomorrow - giving the Nats 4 managers in 3 days after McLaren's ejection).

But, what you might not know is what SI.com writer Jon Heyman reported a few hours later - that Johnson won't have the interim tag applied to his name. Yes, Mike Rizzo got his guy and he is signed through 2013 as the Nats Manager, when he is 70 years old.

[UPDATE - 10:26] It has been reported this AM that Johnson has a club option for 2013 instead of a guaranteed contract.

Johnson, 68, last managed in the Bigs for the Dodgers in 2000 and owns a career .564 Winning Percentage (595-417); .119 points higher than Jim Riggleman. Expect an old school and disciplined manager.

In the span of a week the average age of NL East managers sure jumped...

What are your late night thoughts on Davey Johnson being signed through 2013?

Off-season Transaction Round-up

This has been the busiest offseason for the Washington Nationals that I can remember. General Manager Mike Rizzo has spent his time wheeling and dealing, signing players to mega-contracts and minor league/spring training invite deals. It's entirely possible that one or two of these deals has completely missed your radar. Let's bring all these deals into the light of day just to see all of them in one place.

Novemeber 29: LHP Jimmy Barthmaier - Minor League Contract
December 5: OF Jayson Werth - 7 year/$126 Million Contract
December 14: OF Matt Stairs - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
December 15: OF Archie Gilbert - Minor League Contract
December 15: OF Jonathan Van Every - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
December 15: OF Buck Coats - Minor League Contract
December 16: RHP Henry Ramirez and OF Corey Brown - Trade
December 16: RHP Chien-Ming Wang - 1 year/$1 Million Contract
December 17: 2B Matt Antonelli - Minor League Contract
December 17: RHP Chad Gaudin - Minor League Contact/Invite to Spring Training
December 20: INF Brian Bixler - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
December 20: 1B Michael Aubrey - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
December 20: RHP Joe Bisenius - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
December 20: OF Jeff Frazier - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
December 20: RHP Tim Wood - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
December 21: RHP Ryan Mattheus - Major League Contract
December 23: RHP Harvey Garcia - Minor League Contract
December 23: LHP Sean Burnett - 2 year/$3.95 Million Extension
January 4: 1B Adam LaRoche - 2 year/$15 Million Contract
January 16: LHP Tom Gorzelanny - Trade
January 17: INF Alex Cora - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training - $900K
January 19: UTIL Jerry Hairston - 1 year/$2 Million Contract
January 24: RHP Todd Coffey - 1 year/$1.35 Million Contract
February 2: RHP Cla Meredith - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
February 2: RHP Adam Olbrychowski - Trade
February 2: RHP Shairon Martis - Invite to Spring Training
February 3: OF Laynce Nix - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
February 4: LHP Matt Chico - Major League Contract (Not on 40-Man)
February 4: C Carlos Maldonado - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
February 4: RHP J.D. Martin - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
February 4: 1B Kevin Barker - Minor League Contract/Invite to Spring Training
February 4: RHP Josh Wilkie - Invite to Spring Training
February 4: C Jhonatan Solano - Invite to Spring Training
February 4: C Derek Norris - Invite to Spring Training
February 8: 2B Alex Cintron - Minor League Contract

As you can see its been a very active offseason for the Nationals and GM Mike Rizzo. Though most of the deals have been Minor League Contracts, they shouldn't be overlooked in terms of value; organizational depth is a very important thing.

Be sure to stay tuned to Capitol Baseball for all the latest moves!

Tomorrow, we're going to post our pre-Spring Training Opening Day line up and rotation predictions. It should be a good rundown, so stop by tomorrow morning!

Psuedo-Live Blog of Werth Presser

I am going to be posting a stream-of-consciousness series of thoughts about today's Jayson Werth "Introduction to Phase Two" press conference.

Without further ado, here are my thoughts on the MASN production of the Scott Boras and Jayson Werth Show.

And go.

12:57 - I now know more about the ECU Men's Basketball team than I ever knew before; in that, they have a Men's Basketball team.

12:59 - MASN Special Report!!

1:00 - John De(n)ver, does not sing Rocky Mountain High, but does introduce the team players. Riggleman, Rizzo, Werth, and Boras. In other news the "Phase Two" tally is now at 1.

1:02 - Jayson Werth is clean-shaven. Sad day for all bearded men. But he is rocking a nice Soul Patch.

1:03 - Photo-op of Werth in the new Nats Curly W-filled jersey. Takes him about an hour and a half to button it up. John Dever asks him to spin for the camera, working the catwalk.

1:06 - "Grittyness" "Will-to-win" "Unpolished" "Underdog" all out of Werth's mouth in a 10 second span.

1:07 - Big smiles from Werth about Matt Stairs.

1:08 - Wants to play "into his 40s"

1:08 - Dave Nichols asks about living up to the contract. "wants to be involved with something greater than we have seen before" "no undo pressure" "cliched answer" "going to war"

1:08 - Craig Heist says something, probably about how much he hates Ian Desmond.

1:09 - Zuck asks about having the weight of being the star "looking forward to it".

1:10 - Werth investing in lots of polish. As he says that word 3 more times.

1:11 - Feels strongly about the talent in DC.

1:11 - We Love DC says "Coors" in a very funny way. Almost like "Cooers". In a related note, Werth is excited about staying in the NL East.

1:12 - Man that profile view of the soul patch is something else...

1:13 - More cliched answers about preparation. He has been prepared by Boras pretty well.

1:14 - In my favorite moment, Werth says that he missed what happened in Philly with Cliff Lee. Fantastic.

1:15 - Werth has a no-trade clause?? News to me.

1:16 - I am curious what "Advanced training methods" Werth is referring to.

1:18 - Werth refers to his past relationship with Riggleman in 2004 with the Dodgers.

1:20 - Magic words "I hate to lose". Much better to have an athlete that hates to lose, rather than loves to win.

1:21 - "Scrappy"

1:22 - Tom Boswell!!! Awesome cable-knit sweater. "The more I play, the better I am going to get. That's pretty evident" Cocky. Love it.

1:24 - Last call!

1:26 - On Nats vs. Phillies, "If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best." "Over time, people will see that the Nationals are for real."

1:27 - John De(n)ver leaves us with "Take Me Home, Country Roads."

Initial Thoughts:
- Werth can be a pretty funny guy, but is a walking cliche-machine.
- Glad Boras didn't say a word.
- Glad there was no Debbie Taylor or Ray Knight.
- Only a few MASN-style audio glitches.
- Good for the Nationals for giving credentials to bloggers.
- Should be a fun year.
- Is it Spring Training yet???

Too Much Rizzo Criticism

As I watch and listen to the national baseball people out there, there seems to be a common theme about Jayson Werth's long term signing. "Where was he going?! What was he thinking?!" Except this time, it's toward Nats GM Mike Rizzo, not worst-juicer-ever Nook Logan.

Most national baseball writers and reporters out there forgot the Washington Nationals were an actual baseball team, save Opening Day 2005 and June 8, 2010, so I find it particularly comical that most are getting so upset about the Jayson Werth signing.

The Nationals are in a situation similar to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Kansas City Royals, and the Baltimore Orioles. They've become a joke, and jokes don't sign big name guys. At least that's what the trend has been, especially in the Pirates case. You have teams that don't contend year after year because they deal away their best talent.

Mike Rizzo, though, is trying to buck the trend, and the Lerners look like they're at least going to let him try. Spending $126 million over 7 years for a guy that is 32 years old is a monumental chunk of change. There's no doubt. But I firmly believe it was the right chunk of change to spend.

Rizzo even admitted that if the Nationals were better, they wouldn't have had to offer Jayson Werth the kind of money they did. But they aren't good, and so they have to overpay to get the talent. There are an unbelievable number of people out there who simply don't seem to get that.

People can argue all they want about which guy would have been right for the Nats, and why they didn't go after Carl Crawford instead, or why not Cliff Lee (although it may be Cliff Lee... apparently)? But Mike Rizzo is being honest with himself, honest with his ownership, and honest with the fans, when he says the Nats aren't any good, and he's trying to do something about it by digging into the Lerner's very deep pockets.

Several people at the meetings are reporting that the Nats truly aren't done yet, so let's see what they do over the rest of the week before calling this the craziest move of all time.

Jayson Werth over Adam Dunn: An Analysis

Major League Baseball's winter meetings hadn't even officially begun when the Nats started the meetings off with a huge bang by signing Jayson Werth to a 7-year, $126 million contract. This blockbuster deal will keep Jayson in a Nationals uniform until he turns 39. That's a long, long time. Especially when the Nats would have had to offer Adam Dunn fewer years and less money per year. So, was it the right call?

Initially, if you look at some generic stats, you could very easily lose it if you're a die hard Nats fan. Adam Dunn basically guarantees you at least 38 home runs every year, while Jayson Werth has never hit more than 36, and even that was probably an anomaly. Remember, Werth was hitting in Citizens Bank Park in half of his games played in the last 4 years. Furthermore, Dunn knocked in more than 100 runs in each of the last 3 years, while Werth has gotten 67, 99, and 85 in the last three seasons, respectively.

But we have to look beyond those numbers and dig into some other stats to find some of Werth's true value. Let's look at them in bullet-form. (If you're looking for a Sabermetric analysis, you're not gonna get it here. We're looking at straight up production.):

• Werth is capable of hitting near .300 (see partial season 2007 and 2010) while Adam Dunn hasn't hit above .270 in his entire career.
• Werth has stolen 20 bases in 2 of the last 3 years while Dunn hasn't stolen a single base since 2008.
• Jayson Werth hit 26 doubles in 2009 and 46 in 2010, while Dunn hit 29 in 2009, and 36 in 2010.
• While Dunn hits a lot of home runs, Werth's OPS in 2010 was .921 vs. Dunn's .892. Very comparable numbers.
• Werth has scored 73, 98, and 106 runs in the last 3 years, while Dunn has scored 79, 81, and 85 in those same seasons.

Sure, Werth's higher runs scored numbers are partially (mostly?) due to the fact that he played for the Phillies, while Dunn played for the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Reds during the same time. But you certainly can't argue with the stolen bases that will put Werth in scoring position more often, or with his ability to make extra base hits with his speed, or with the higher OPS last year.

Other factors besides offensive prowess certainly played into the decision, although the people over at FanGraphs believe that Werth and Dunn are far more equal offensively than people believe. Jayson Werth is clearly a better defensive player than Dunn. Though I am one of those that believe that Dunn was a significantly improved defensive player in 2010, you can't rule out the fact that Werth is a Gold Glove caliber outfielder. In 2009, Werth had the highest range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game of any right fielder in the National League. He has the kind of range to be a center fielder when a certain #1 overall draft pick is ready to come to the majors (spoiler: it's Bryce Harper).

Werth and Dunn are essentially the same age (Dunn is 6 months younger), so why offer him the long term deal and not Dunn? Size certainly played a factor. Adam Dunn is football player sized. He weighs nearly 300 lbs., which has a negative affect on a players physical ability over time. Werth, at 6'5" and only 220 lbs., is at a weight that will give his body more longevity in the game than the Big Donkey. He is more nimble, which gives the team a significant offensive and defensive advantage. Despite their similar ages, Werth is simply a younger player.

Do these thing justify 3 more years than Dunn was asking for? Does it justify the average of $18 million/year that Werth will be earning? It's truly impossible to know until he hits year 4 of this deal. But one thing is for sure, for the next 4 years while Jayson Werth plays in DC and Adam Dunn hits in Chi-Town, there will be endless comparisons in their stats. I'm thrilled with the sign, all things considered, and I think that a Zimmerman, Werth, Willingham 3-4-5 provides a different kind of punch, that's not necessarily bad. Now if the Nats now take this opportunity to unload the Hammer, we'll be having a different conversation right here on Capitol Baseball.

The great part about all this for Nats fans is that Mike Rizzo said "We're not finished," and he may have meant it according to Mark Zuckerman in his post this morning. The Nationals will be covered in the national sports media for the next few days, which is almost never bad. Keep checking in with Nats Insider for the breaking news and here at Capitol Baseball for analysis of any future moves.