Do the Phillies Have the Best Rotation in Baseball?

Since Cliff Lee is coming to the NL East to play for the Philadelphia Phillies... again..., I thought it might be a good time to address what everyone's talking about. Do the Phillies now have the best rotation in baseball?

It's easy to get caught up in the hype of Cliffmas (h/t Cheryl Nichols) and with good reason. In 2010, the Phillies had Roy Halladay, who won the NL Cy Young and pitched a perfect game during the regular season and a no hitter in the post-season. They also had Cole Hamels, who had a much improved year over 2009, and they picked up Roy Oswalt, making them among the strongest rotations in baseball. So what did they do in the offseason? Somehow made it better by signing Cliff Lee to a deal that was shorter than what any other team was offering and gave him less money. Yea, so that's clearly the best rotation in baseball, right?

Wrong. Absolutely wrong. Among the best? Absolutely. Top 3? Without a doubt. But not the best.

There is this team out west (see: bias, east coast). They go by the Giants; they're from this city called San Francisco. They won the World Series in commanding fashion in 2010, largely because of their stellar pitching. A World Series in which they beat Cliff Lee twice. Let's look at these names.

• Tim Lincecum
• Matt Cain
• Jonathan Sanchez
• Madison Bumgarner

A pretty impressive list, for several reasons. Not the least of which is 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, but the Phillies have Cy Young winner Roy Halladay. So what are the others?

The first is age. The oldest of the 4 for the Giants is Jonathan Sanchez at 28. The youngest in the Phillies' rotation is Cole Hamels, who will be 27 on Opening Day. That's right, the youngest pitcher in Philly's rotation is only one year younger than San Fran's oldest.

To add to it, all 4 of these Giants pitchers now have World Series rings. The confidence of a team with rings really can't be stressed enough, and now this entire rotation as earned them. By contrast in the Phillies rotation, only Cole Hamels has won a World Series in his career.

For all of these reasons, the Giants have the best rotation in the National League, and in baseball, as of this writing. Things can always change, and the past doesn't necessarily dictate the future, but I thought it was a prudent time to address this topic. Talking heads across the country seem to think that the Phillies new rotation is the best ever, and it was simply time to put it in perspective.

That doesn't eliminate the fact that he Phillies rotation is really, really good. So it begs the question: how do the Nats compete with one of the best pitching rotations in the league? Win against all the other NL East opponents, because not a whole lot of victories are going to come from Philly.

The State of the Nats: The Week After Winter Meetings (Cliff Lee Included)

After a week of playing "who will they get besides Jayson Werth" and ending up with no one, the Nationals have only about 9 weeks to solidify some sort of roster before pitchers and catchers report to Viera, Florida to begin Spring Training 2011. But where do the Nats stand at this moment? Let's dig into it, bullet point style.

Starting Pitchers:

There are a host of options here, but here are the six most likely to compete for the job in order of likelihood that they'll be in the rotation. This all can change, for sure.

• Jordan Zimmermann - Brought in to be the 2nd starter behind Strasburg, he will have to take on a larger role this year than the team wants him to. This embodies the problem that this rotation has had for several years: forcing guys into more prominent roles than they may be ready for.
• Jason Marquis - Money. The reason Marquis is this high on the list has nothing to do with his performance last year, whether his relative success late in the year or his abhorrent beginning. It's all about the money, and with $7.5 million guaranteed to Marquis in 2011, there's no way he doesn't make the rotation barring an injury.
• John Lannan - Lannan showed signs of resurgence, and for the first time in a while, Lannan won't be the Opening Day starter. This is huge, as Lannan is probably a #3 starter at best. This might turn into more success for John as the years progress.
• Livan Hernandez - The Nats brought him back for a reason. That reason is probably more a mentor's role than anything, but it's hard to imagine either Maya or Detwiler making the rotation over a proven .500 starter. Livo is a good bet to make the rotation to start the year.
• Yunesky Maya - Maya will be an interesting decision. The Nats may go with a 4-man rotation to start the year, as they've done in recent seasons. However, with the bullpen a little more set than last year, they may decide to go with a 5-man rotation. If they do, and no other players are signed before Opening Day, Maya will probably be the guy.
• Ross Detwiler - Oh Rossy D, what has happened to you? He's been hurt, and when he wasn't hurt, he hasn't looked good. To make things worse, World Series Champ Madison Bumgarner and NL Rookie of the Year Runner-Up Jason Heyward were selected after Detwiler in that draft. But hindsight is 20/20 folks, and we're stuck with Ross for now. We'll see how much patience the front office has left as they set a rotation and bullpen for 2011.

The one thing that this category lacks is once clear, front-line starter. Stephen Strasburg was supposed to be that guy, but in the mean time, GM Mike Rizzo isn't wrong in actively pursuing a true Opening Day starter. There's some definite work to be done here.

Bullpen:

These guys are are a lock to make the 'pen this year. I hope that Bally can have some influence on the others to get an awesome mustache growing contest going out there. More than anything, I want them to have the kind of success that they had last year.

• Collin Balester - The man, the 'stache, the legend. Balester really figured out his command in 2010, and I look forward to another strong season from the power reliever.
• Sean Burnett - The lefty specialist. Burnett came into his own in 2010, and eventually became Manager Jim Riggleman's go-to guy from the 'pen.
• Tyler Clippard - The flailing approach and devastating change up. Clippard started out 2010 with a bang, but struggled a little in the stretch.
• Doug Slaten - The other lefty. Slaten is the true lefty specialist here, not Burnett. He plays an important role in the bullpen.
• Craig Stammen - Starter turned long reliever. It still remains to be seen if Stammen can remain a part of the big league club in the bullpen after his not-so stellar attempt to be a starter. I'm hoping for the best, but it probably wouldn't hurt to go grab another Miguel Batista-like reliever.
• Drew Storen - The closer. Storen also made an appearance on the red carpet Monday night for the premiere of Owen Wilson's new flick where he's a Nationals reliever. I'm not ashamed to admit I'll see that movie just because of Nationals reference.

Infield:

• C: Wilson Ramos/Ivan Rodriguez/Jesus Flores - The first two will be a strong until Flores is ready to give it a shot, and who knows when that will be. For his sake, I hope it's before 2011 comes to a close.
• 1B: Vacant - This is the question. A huge offensive hole has been torn in the Nationals lineup with the loss of Adam Dunn. How they fill it here could dictate a lot about the future.
• 2B: Danny Espinosa - Espinosa started out with a bang in 2010, only to flounder as the season came to a close. Hopefully he can adjust to opposing pitchers figuring him out, and the NL East's pitching didn't get any easier this morning (see: Lee, Cliff)
• SS: Ian Desmond - Desmond had the opposite experience from his middle infielding partner. He got hot at the end of the year, and looked like he could be a real rock in the lineup in the future. His defense still seriously needs help, though that improved as well as the season progressed.
• 3B: Ryan Zimmerman - Top 3 3rd basemen in all of baseball right now. Wanna argue with me? I dare you. Zimmerman may be the most underrated infielder in baseball though, and the Nationals better get on signing him to a contract extension quickly, I'm thinking 20 years.

Outfield:

• LF: Josh Willingham - This may change in the coming weeks. With a guy like Jayson Werth coming into the picture for the next 7 years, Willingham's worth (no pun intended) may have just plummeted to the front office.
• CF: Nyjer Morgan - Seems that Manager Jim Riggleman and Rizzo are pretty committed to give T. Plush another shot as the starter in center. If Morgan can produce like he did in 2009 and the second half of 2010, he'll probably earn that role for the season.
• RF: Jayson "The Beard" Werth - We won't go into this much, because there's somewhere around 3 million posts across the internet about Werth's arrival in DC. We will say that he has the potential to unseat Morgan should he falter, giving other guys the chance to succeed as starters at this position.

So this is our summary of what would happen if the Nats season started today. They could do worse, but they could also do a lot better. How Mike Rizzo and Co. finish up the offseason will dictate what kind of year this team has. If they can pick up a respectable starter and a good bat at 1st base, the team has a chance to best their 69 wins in 2010. Though the addition of Cliff Lee to the NL East again makes that even more difficult. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt... Can you imagine facing that rotation 18 times in 2011? Well, you're going to have to.

Cliff Lee: Who Cares?

Since the minute the Giants won the World Series, and now approaching winter meetings next Monday, all that anyone is talking about is Cliff Lee and the Yankees. Well... also Derek Jeter and the Yankees, but I'm way too tired of that story already. Everyone wants Cliff Lee, and who wouldn't?

Lee is, without a doubt, one of the best starting pitchers in baseball today. He's in the class with Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, David Price, and Adam Wainwright. After Lee won is Cy Young in 2008 with the Cleveland Indians, people started to notice. I'm not saying people didn't know who Cliff Lee was in the first 5 years of his career, but it's hard to get noticed in Cleveland. Pitchers, like Lee and Sabathia who came from Cleveland, get noticed in big markets (see: Philadelphia and New York, respectively)


But in the last 2 seasons, Lee has played for 4 major league teams. When you really think about that, it's absolutely staggering. After 7 and a half years in Cleveland, Cliff Lee has become a "hired gun."

After winning a Cy Young in Cleveland, Lee decided to cash out a few times on big time contending teams. First in Philadelphia, then Seattle (yes... at one point people thought they could contend in the AL West), and then in Texas. But after making it to the World Series in 2010, Cliff Lee has a decision to make. Does he continue this jumping around?

Clearly he won't. He's the only pitcher of true value on the market this year, which makes him even more valuable. Wherever Lee signs, it's going to be for an insane amount of money and a preposterous length of time. The kind of money and time that a 32 year old starting pitcher should never get. Sure, Cliff Lee is in the prime of his career today, but a 6 year deal means he ends up playing for that team way, way past his prime. We've seen it in almost every truly great pitcher in recent years, Maddux and Smoltz, Moyer and Wakefield, and countless other great pitchers.

So the question of how much is too much is just irrelevant here. Whatever Cliff wants, he'll get. And whatever that is, it'll almost certainly be too much.

But what about the Washington Nationals? How much will be too much if they were to try and sign Lee? Again, almost any amount of money. The Nationals don't need a Cliff Lee in 2011. I know that's a crazy thing to say, but his addition to the rotation gives the Nats a few extra wins and still a negligible chance at making the playoffs in the NL East. It also ties up more than $100 MILLION over the next few years that could be spent to sign young, talented pitchers like Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg for future years of success. And in the end, you almost certainly end up overpaying a fledgling former star.

I know these statements are controversial, and probably won't sit well with many in NatsTown, but I don't want Cliff Lee to be a National in 2011. Or in any future year. At some point, it will be the right time to sign a big name starting pitcher in his prime for a few years to really set the Nationals first true playoff push. But it's not now.