Tyler Clippard Isn't Human - Part II

Way back in August after yet another epic performance by Tyler Clippard, I decided to write a sort of ode to the artist formerly known as Peaches. In that post, linked here, I showed you how Clippard has fared when stacked up against other relievers - the verdict? he was well ahead of the class.

Recently, as the Nats have been struggling to win ballgames, I have began to wonder how, after all of these appearances in the past two years, he is still able to dominate hitters.

So, my mind working the way it does, it was time to do a little bit of research.

Since 2007, only five relief pitchers have thrown more than 90 innings in a single season; Matt Belisle and Tyler Clippard in 2010 an Heath Bell, Peter Moylan, and FNG Saul Rivera in 2007.

Here is there WAR and ERA in their 90IP seasons vs their next season -

Heath Bell - 2.4/2.02 in 2007 ..... 0.9/3.58 in 2008
Peter Moylan - 0.6/1.80 in 2007 ..... 0.0/1.59 in 2008
- Pitched in just 7 games - Went on DL on April 15th with an Elbow injury, missed the season
Saul Rivera - 1.3/3.68 in 2007 ..... 1.3/3.96 in 2008
Matt Belisle - 2.2/2.93 in 2010 ..... 1.2/3.56 in 2011

So, as you can see, each pitcher saw a drastic drop in ERA, each pitcher (save one) saw a decrease in WAR, and there was one pitcher is a serious elbow injury. Can you see where I am going with this?

Tyler Clippard threw down a 1.4 WAR an a 3.09 ERA in 2010 - decent numbers for a reliever.

This year his WAR is slightly down at 1.1, but his ERA is a mind-boggling 1.96. No other pitcher was able to even hold steady at an above-average/average reliever in the year after they threw 90+ innings - Clippard got better.

And after 2 more (stellar) innings last night, Clippard projects to be right around 90 innings again this year...

Thoughts, CapBallers?? The Comments section awaits!

[Ed. Note] Make sure you come back around 1 for Sean's debut post!

Lannan's Secret to Success

John Lannan has had a great season so far, especially considering that last year at this time he was a week away from a trip to Syracuse for poor performance. So far he is on pace for career highs in ERA, FIP, WAR, and wins. What is most interesting is that when I have watched him pitch, he has been getting rocked - the opposing players have been hitting everything very hard. It seemed like every hit ball in the first 4 innings yesterday was a rocket shot that our suddenly stellar defense was about to track down or make a play on.

Being a big believer in stats, I went to fangraphs to try and figure out why/how Lannan has been able to put up these career numbers. But here's the thing. I couldn't figure it out.

- His K/9 is higher than his career average, but not a career high.
- His BB/9 is his highest ever.
- His BABIP is .283. His career BABIP? .283.
- His WHIP is 1.41. His career WHIP? Yep. 1.41.
- His GB% (Groundball Percentage) is a mere 0.7% below his career average.
- His BAA (Batting Average Against) is only .007 lower than his career average.

I just don't get it.

At times it seems like Lannan is working quicker on the mound, but at times he seems to be Yunesky Maya slow.

Seemingly the only three things I can find are slightly obscure, and don't fully explain his 2011 success.

- His Z-Contact% (Percentage of contact of pitches in the strike zone) is down more than 5% from his career total. Meaning, he is getting more swings and misses.

- Lannan's fastball is sitting at 89.7 MPH, 1.5 MPH higher than his career average. And even more interesting is that his fastball velocity has gotten faster each year since he debuted in 2007 with an 86.7 MPH average fastball velocity.

- I know his BABIP is right in line with his career average, but the Nationals have been played stellar defense of late, setting a new Franchise Record errorless streak.

Any of you CapBallers have any other idea why Lannan is on his way to a career year?

Will the Real Gorzelanny Please Stand Up?

Now I know that we are just a few short weeks into the 2011 season, but there have been several patterns emerging - rain, offensive offense, spotty defense, irregular bullpen. But one of the more constant things so far has been the starting rotation. You have heard the stat over and over, that rotation is the only one left in baseball to have each starter go at least 5IP or more in each game; and this is great. But as several of our beatwriters have written, that doesn't necessarily mean that they have been good. None have been more back-and-forth than Tom Gorzelanny. At times this year he has has been brilliant, and at times he has been not-so-brilliant (much like a certain DC ballclub). There is one really big question hanging out there...

Has he really been that bad?

His ERA currently sits at a 3.97, and its always good to have a sub-4 ERA. But that number is very deceptive.

We have talked in the past about FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which essentially tallies up everything that a pitcher can control while removing everything that he can't (just hits, walks, strikeouts). I like using FIP to judge how a pitcher is really performing, and in Gorzelanny's case, it doesn't paint a pretty picture. Right now it is over a point higher than his ERA, sitting uncomfortably at 5.11. Seeing as though we read FIP the same as ERA, 5.11 is not good.

Next, let's talk about his BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play), and as we discussed earlier this week, league average is somewhere around .298. BABIP is useful in determining a pitchers luck, a high BABIP means that the other team are finding gaps and getting lucky hits, low meaning that the pitcher is getting some help from his team via solid defense or lucky outs.

Before I tell you what his 2011 BABIP is, I should tell you that his career average is .296 which is incredibly average. This year, in his 4 starts, his BABIP is .200, good for 4th lowest in MLB. One has to figure that this number doesn't change that drastically in one offseason, and that Gorzelanny will soon regress towards his career average almost .100 points higher - sending his ERA skyrocketing.

We will get into this a bit more in the next section, but he is also suffering from a severe case of Gopher-Ball-Itis. In 2011 his HR/9 rate is 60% higher than his career rate (0.98 career, 1.59 in 2011).

To sum up...
1 - Gorzelanny has not been good when the defense is out of the picture.
2 - Gorzelanny has been getting extremely lucky.
3 - Gorzelanny is giving up significantly more Homers.

Now the bigger question - Why?

Gorzelanny is coming off of a bounce-back year with the Cubs, winning 7 games with a sub-4 FIP, while also earning his 2nd highest WAR total ever with a 2.3. What happened between this year and last year that has this writer so worried?

1 - Over the past 5 years, Gorzelanny has made a living getting hitters to ground out, having never posted a Ground Ball Percentage (GB%) rate below 40%. This year his GB% is at 31.7%. And when you aren't getting the ground balls...

2 - You give up more fly balls, and in turn, more homers. Gorzelanny's highest percentage of fly-balls in a season (FB%) has never been above 43.8%. This year it is at 54.0%.

3 - His career best Pitches per Plate Appearance is 3.87. And in 2011 it is currently at 4.12 - leading to higher pitch counts and fewer innings pitched.

The last point I have is probably the biggest harbinger for future bad performance.

4 - In 2009, just 2 years ago, Gorzelanny's fastball averaged 91 MPH. This year his fastball sits at 87.9 MPH - 60th slowest out of 70 NL starting pitchers (at least 20 IP).

Recap

Could this be just a small sample size issue? Yes.

Could this be signs of worse to come? Yes.

Fly Balls + Higher HR Rate + Slower Fastball + Lucky Hitters = Bad Juju.

Statistical Updates

So a few weeks ago we did a brief introduction to some new stats, focusing on Win Probability Added and the new Shutdowns/Meltdowns. Focusing on how individual Nats are faring in those specific categories, we also went over some additional numbers from the still-young 2011 season. Today we've got a new stat for you as well as some updates on some of those key numbers and trends so far this season.

wOBA - Weighted On-Base Average

Thanks to Biff McGregor over at Biffball for the plain-English explanation of how and why we use wOBA. What you need to know is basically that wOBA places a weighted run value on each type of on-base situation (including reach-on-error and hit-by-pitches). The thing that separates wOBA from something like OPS (which we know is On-Base plus Slugging), is that not all hits are equal. With Slugging Percentage, a single is worth 1, a double 2, a triple 3, and a home run 4 - showing exactly the flaws in the system; is a double really worth twice as much as a single? In one of their latest Blog Posts, Fangraphs explains that each of the "run values" (value to the team) are based on historical data.

In a nutshell, "As you can see from the visual [in said article], wOBA puts more stress on walks, hit by pitches, and singles, while OPS attaches a huge value to homeruns and triples."

wOBA is read at essentially the same range as OBP (On-Base Percentage) or as Biffball places it, "average is somewhere in the .320-.330 range, .380-.390 is superstar, and under .300 is replacement level."

With that in mind, how are the Nats faring with wOBA this year?
- As a team they are tied with the Pirates and Orioles for 21st in MLB, with a .301 wOBA.
- Of the team's regulars (not including Zimmerman), Danny Espinosa leads the team with a .379 wOBA (bordering on Superstar level). Following Espi is Ramos with a .368 and Nix with a .351. After that is gets pretty brutal, dropping down to Werth at .318.
- The worst of everyday starter is Michael Morse, coming in at a paltry .226.

Look for additional usage of wOBA here on Capitol Baseball.

Stat Updates -
- Nats are taking the extra base 50% of the time, much higher than they ever have in the past. Thanks Bo Porter.
- The Nats have only GIDP in 12% of potential chances.
- With RISP, the Nats' average has risen from .175, at the last writing, all the way up to .235. Still not great, but to have such a change in just a week, shows that the offense might finally be coming alive.
- The Nats now have stolen 15 bases, 7 by Desmond (who has yet to be caught).
- With 2 outs and RISP, the Nats are only hitting .123. Gross.
- Starters and Relievers ERA's have balanced out to an almost equal 3.56 and 3.46 respectively.
- Ramos is still catching the pitchers at a much higher level than Pudge. The Nats staff has a 3.01 ERA with Ramos, and a 4.07 ERA with Pudge.
- Nats are 27th in OPS with a .658 - bolstered by "scratching out runs" via Sacrifice hits and stolen bases.
- They are tied for 21st in OBP - tied with Seattle who has had Adam Kennedy and Ryan Langerhans hitting 3 and 4 in their lineup. Gross.
- The Nats 3.53 ERA places them 10th in all of baseball.
- WHIP is 14th with a 1.30.
- The Bullpen's K rate is 7.9/9. Very solid.
- The Nats have 12 errors on the year, placing them 13th worst in MLB - Desmond once again leads the way with 4 errors.

Do any of these stats scare/excite you about the Nats season? Share with us in the comments!

New and Nats Stats

I love stats. I love the way that you can quantify everything in a baseball game. From the statistical variances between two different ballparks, to the percentage a player increased or decreased your teams chance to win the ball game. And in the past we have discussed several stats that you may or may not be familiar with, but there are a few more than I want to throw your way. While explaining each stat, with a few extra nuggets thrown in, I am going to add some examples about the Nats 2011 season.

WPA - Win Probability Added

This stat is used to judge a particular players impact on a game, and it is scored out of 1.00%. This stat can go both positive and negative, meaning if you are the only person that helps your team win a game you get a 1.00 rating, but if you blow the game and are the only person responsible you get a -1.00. Each play can also change the trajectory of the game, each singular at-bat.

For example, Adam LaRoche's 2-run HR in the 11th inning vs the Mets was worth .418%; meaning that hit added 41.8% chance to win a game that was 50/50, giving the Nats (at that point) a 91.8% chance to win the game.

Your Nats Leaders for WPA are:
Pitchers - Clippard 1.14% - Storen 0.23%
Hitters - LaRoche 0.20% - Zimmerman/Pudge/Desi - 0.17%

You Nats worst for WPA are:
Pitchers - Gorzelanny -0.53% - Gaudin -0.43%
Hitters - Hairston -0.36% - Werth -0.31%

Shutdown/Meltdown

This stat is specifically for relief pitchers and is a corollary to WPA, and actually uses WPA as its main construct. We know now that each player has a WPA for each game; LaRoche's WPA was .241% when he had that extra innings Home Run. How this relates to relievers is that every time a reliever notches a +0.06 WPA he earns a shutdown, and every time they get a -0.06 they earn a meltdown. This stat is great for relievers because it relates so closely to saves, in that those with high save numbers also have accumulated lots of shutdowns. It's beauty lies in the fact that you can use this with all relievers, closers and mop-up men alike.

Shutdown Leaders:
Clippard 5 - Storen 2 - Coffey/Burnett 1

Meltdown Leaders:
Gaudin 3 - Slaten 2

Awesome: Brian Broderick has 0 Meltdowns (my guess is cause the Nats were already so far out of the game when he had his 2 appearances)

Interesting Stats from 2011:
- The team has taken the extra base (1st to 3rd, 2nd to Home), 55% of the time - well above last years total. Wilson Ramos leading the way, doing it 3 times thus far.
- Pudge has grounded into 2 double plays in 7 chances.
- 67 LOB in 9 games = 7.4 runners LOB per game.
- Just 14 for 80 with RISP, coming out to a .175 AVG.
- With 2 outs and RISP, they are hitting just .135.
- Nats have only managed 5 stolen bases this year, 3 by Desmond.
- The Nats are 22nd in MLB in OPS but 16th in OBP.
- The Starters have an ERA of 4.29 and a WHIP of 1.27.
- The Bullpen has as ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.32.
- Averaging out the pitching staff has an ERA of 4.09 (16th) and a WHIP of 1.29 (13th). Their BAA (Batting Average Against) is 10th in all of baseball.
- The Bullpen's K/9 ratio is a staggering 8.9.
- Nats pitchers are 9th in MLB in strikeouts with 69, 10 behind the leader.
- The 'Pen has inherited 25 runners, and only 9 of them have scored. Tyler Clippard leads the way with only 2 runners scoring out of 9 inherited runners.
- It should be noted that the staff's ERA is more than a run better when Ramos (3.49) is catching, as opposed to Pudge (4.60).
- The pitching staff has only given up 4 Unearned Runs.
- The veteran bench that has been talked up all offseason is 0 for 9 in pinch hitting appearances; though Matt Stairs has 4 walks in 6 PA.
- The Nats have 7 Errors on the year (tied for 9th most in MLB), no one player has more than 1.
- Nats are averaging 4 runs per game.
- The Nats lead MLB in walks with 44, 5 more than the 2nd place team. Zimmerman and Werth leading the way with 7 each.

Which of these stats is the most interesting to you? Sound off in the Comments!