Monday, April 11, 2011

New and Nats Stats

I love stats. I love the way that you can quantify everything in a baseball game. From the statistical variances between two different ballparks, to the percentage a player increased or decreased your teams chance to win the ball game. And in the past we have discussed several stats that you may or may not be familiar with, but there are a few more than I want to throw your way. While explaining each stat, with a few extra nuggets thrown in, I am going to add some examples about the Nats 2011 season.

WPA - Win Probability Added

This stat is used to judge a particular players impact on a game, and it is scored out of 1.00%. This stat can go both positive and negative, meaning if you are the only person that helps your team win a game you get a 1.00 rating, but if you blow the game and are the only person responsible you get a -1.00. Each play can also change the trajectory of the game, each singular at-bat.

For example, Adam LaRoche's 2-run HR in the 11th inning vs the Mets was worth .418%; meaning that hit added 41.8% chance to win a game that was 50/50, giving the Nats (at that point) a 91.8% chance to win the game.

Your Nats Leaders for WPA are:
Pitchers - Clippard 1.14% - Storen 0.23%
Hitters - LaRoche 0.20% - Zimmerman/Pudge/Desi - 0.17%

You Nats worst for WPA are:
Pitchers - Gorzelanny -0.53% - Gaudin -0.43%
Hitters - Hairston -0.36% - Werth -0.31%


This stat is specifically for relief pitchers and is a corollary to WPA, and actually uses WPA as its main construct. We know now that each player has a WPA for each game; LaRoche's WPA was .241% when he had that extra innings Home Run. How this relates to relievers is that every time a reliever notches a +0.06 WPA he earns a shutdown, and every time they get a -0.06 they earn a meltdown. This stat is great for relievers because it relates so closely to saves, in that those with high save numbers also have accumulated lots of shutdowns. It's beauty lies in the fact that you can use this with all relievers, closers and mop-up men alike.

Shutdown Leaders:
Clippard 5 - Storen 2 - Coffey/Burnett 1

Meltdown Leaders:
Gaudin 3 - Slaten 2

Awesome: Brian Broderick has 0 Meltdowns (my guess is cause the Nats were already so far out of the game when he had his 2 appearances)

Interesting Stats from 2011:
- The team has taken the extra base (1st to 3rd, 2nd to Home), 55% of the time - well above last years total. Wilson Ramos leading the way, doing it 3 times thus far.
- Pudge has grounded into 2 double plays in 7 chances.
- 67 LOB in 9 games = 7.4 runners LOB per game.
- Just 14 for 80 with RISP, coming out to a .175 AVG.
- With 2 outs and RISP, they are hitting just .135.
- Nats have only managed 5 stolen bases this year, 3 by Desmond.
- The Nats are 22nd in MLB in OPS but 16th in OBP.
- The Starters have an ERA of 4.29 and a WHIP of 1.27.
- The Bullpen has as ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.32.
- Averaging out the pitching staff has an ERA of 4.09 (16th) and a WHIP of 1.29 (13th). Their BAA (Batting Average Against) is 10th in all of baseball.
- The Bullpen's K/9 ratio is a staggering 8.9.
- Nats pitchers are 9th in MLB in strikeouts with 69, 10 behind the leader.
- The 'Pen has inherited 25 runners, and only 9 of them have scored. Tyler Clippard leads the way with only 2 runners scoring out of 9 inherited runners.
- It should be noted that the staff's ERA is more than a run better when Ramos (3.49) is catching, as opposed to Pudge (4.60).
- The pitching staff has only given up 4 Unearned Runs.
- The veteran bench that has been talked up all offseason is 0 for 9 in pinch hitting appearances; though Matt Stairs has 4 walks in 6 PA.
- The Nats have 7 Errors on the year (tied for 9th most in MLB), no one player has more than 1.
- Nats are averaging 4 runs per game.
- The Nats lead MLB in walks with 44, 5 more than the 2nd place team. Zimmerman and Werth leading the way with 7 each.

Which of these stats is the most interesting to you? Sound off in the Comments!


  1. Ramos is our speedster? I think Pudge's rate of hidp is actually down - seems like that's all he did last year. Yesterday one of our catcher's rbi'd the other one - not seen very often. Not surprised about the walks or stranding runners. Both are pretty obvious. Might work with the Mets, but perhaps not the Phils. Zim- out, Werth - not doing anything, LaRoche - hurt, Morse - cold= ouch! Danny and Desi - please hit!

  2. good work generally here, but the Nats have 10 errors through nine games, dead last in the N.L. and 26th in all MLB.

  3. LOVE the shutdown/meltdown stats. I really hope they gain traction and go mainstream. Such a better way to evaluate relievers compared to saves/holds. Curious to see if this early patience holds up, or just an effect of the pitchers theyve faced

  4. @Biff - Isn't that stat just fantastic, its just so much better than anything else I have seen to evaluate relievers.

    @Dave - I found that 10 number as well, and so I looked around. Fangraphs,, and ESPN have the Nats at 7 errors, and Baseball Reference has them listed at 10 but if you look at the listing of the errors it only adds up to 7.

    Desi, Espi, Hairston, Ramos, Nix, Werth, and Zim.

  5. My bad. has them at 7 as well. trust, but verify i guess.

  6. Any stats on ejections? I don't think we have any yet - anybody see Madden pull a Lou Pinella yesterday? He was ejecting the umpires! Very funny - I guess he is frustrated with his team and the Manny situation. The best nats stat of all - we do NOT have the worst record in MLB.