The Curious Case of Rossy-D

Fact: Ross Detwiler is a 1st round draft pick.

Fact: Ross Detwiler is a 6' 5" Lefty.

Fact: Ross Detwiler has a 2.57 ERA this year.

Probable: Ross Detwiler will be sent down to Syracuse in the next two days.

Things around NatsTown have gotten really strange. Trade rumors involving another 1st round pick, Drew Storen, are reaching a fever pitch - while the organization is showing little faith in another 1st round pick - Ross Detwiler.

The 2007 pick has done everything the organization has asked and has improved while doing it. Suffering through injuries has definitely hampered the development of the Missouri native, but Detwiler seems to have put all of the hip issues behind him. Which brings me to my point.

It's time for the Nats to finally make a decision.

Ross Detwiler is a starting pitcher, who has either toiled away in the minors or been moved to the bullpen while pitchers like Yunesky Maya, Matt Chico, Garrett Mock, Collin Balester, Marco Estrada, and Daniel Cabrera have all gotten MLB starts for the Nats. In the past I can definitely see that some others might have had better numbers, but how will you know what he can do if you never give him a shot?

This season looked like it was going to be time to finally see Detwiler crack the big league rotation permanently, that is until Mike Rizzo made a trade for the underwhelming Tom Gorzelanny. Let's take a look, bullet point-style:

• Immediately after that trade, Gorzelanny was handed a spot in the Opening Day rotation, despite putting up a 4.46 ERA in spring training to Detwiler's 2.57.
• Even still, Detwiler was given no chance to crack the rotation, that was reserved for Chad Gaudin (he of the 6.48 spring training ERA, since DFA'd) who was given every vote of confidence by Riggleman as a potential 5th starter.
• Once the season started it was straight to Syracuse for the lefty while Yunesky Maya was given the first opportunity at a spot start - and we all know how that worked out... 4 times.
• When it was eventually time for Detwiler to make his first appearance of the year, he won the game with 5.1 IP of 4 hit, 2 run ball, he was pulled immediately after giving up a homer to Reed Johnson despite holding a 6-2 lead.
• Next came bullpen.

That brings us to this week.

Tom Gorzelanny has finally pitched himself out of the rotation after giving up 11 ER in his last 11 IP, but Detwiler will once again be victim to the options game when Wang gets activated later this week.

How many more times are the Nats brass going to pass over the former 1st round pick?

Ross Detwiler is 25 years-old and it's time to make a decision on his future. The Nationals need to give him a spot in the rotation and let him sink or swim, or they need to trade him to someone else that will.

Handicapping Detwiler's Start

Tuesday night, Ross Detwiler went 5.1 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits. On paper, that makes a pretty average start. He got the Curly W, and the Nats moved back above the .500 mark. Simple enough, right? Let's look at our concerns from yesterday's post and how our predictions matched up to what really happened: bullet-point style.

• Velocity - We said our main concern for Detwiler was his velocity. Well, it looked like Nats Park had him jacked up. His fastball got all the way up to 95 twice in the first inning and stayed pretty stable in the 92-93 mph range throughout the start. That's the exact velocity you want Rossy D at with his 84 mph change up. We liked what we saw, including that his velocity stayed up to the end. It's hard to know how quickly it'd disappear though, since he was done after just 78 pitches.
• Walks - Detwiler's BB/9 was 3.30 in Syracuse this season, which is a bit higher than an ideal level. Tuesday, he walked no one; 49 of his 78 pitches were strikes. You'd like to see a better ball-strike ratio, but the no walks against major league hitting was a great start.
• Hit hard - We said that Detwiler would get lit up. We were wrong about the hits, but we weren't wrong about getting hit hard. There was a whole lot of contact, especially in the first few innings, where Cubs hitters were making exceptional contact; it just happened to be at Nats fielders. Ross caught some real breaks there.

Overall, we were impressed with Detwiler's start, as it wasn't as bad as we thought it could be. We still have serious concerns, though. Detwiler faced just 21 batters. Once he got through the lineup twice, it turned not so great. Of the only 3 batters that saw him a 3rd time (Johnson, DeWitt, A. Ramirez), one doubled, one flied out, and one hit a 2-run homer. It's a small sample size, but it doesn't bode well to getting through the lineup 3 times as a starter. Just another reason why we think Detwiler could be a great lefty reliever and spot starter long term. Only time will tell what happens with him as far as that goes.

What do you think will happen with Rossy D long term? Despite his slow starting career, we like him, do you?

Predicting Detwiler's Start

Ross Detwiler returns to the Nationals starting rotation tonight, though probably not for long. As a result, Collin Balester got screwed once again and got sent back down to Syracuse to make roster space for Rossy D. Don't expect Bally to stay down long though. Davey Johnson sounded quite impressed with his 7 inning relief appearance after Marquis had his most recent implosion.

Last season, Detwiler started 5 games to fairly disappointing results. In 3 of those 5 starts, he didn't make it through 5 innings. He gave up 22 runs (14 earned) in 23.2 innings for an inflated 5.32 ERA. He stranded just under 60% of runners, and hitters had a .307 average against. He fared much better in 3 relief appearances, though, giving up no earned runs in 6 innings (2 innings/appearance). He stranded all runners and opposing hitters threw up just a .158 average.

Tonight, we expect to see the starting pitcher of 2010, not the reliever. Why, besides the obvious "because he's starting" thing? Because Detwiler hasn't even come close to dominating the competition in AAA Syracuse. He's put up a mediocre 4.32 ERA in 87.1 innings. He's struck out a decent number of batters (6.49 K/9), but he's also walked far too many (3.30 BB/9). Opponents BABIP is an inflated .336; luckily, the Nats will put a pretty great defense behind him this evening.

Our main concern is what we wrote about last month: velocity. Detwiler has struggled to break 90 mph with his fastball and has a change up that hovers around 85 mph. That kind of difference may fool AA and even some AAA talent, but it certainly isn't going to fool anyone (besides Ian Desmond) in the major leagues. We think that there's a good shot that Detwiler will get lit up early and often by the Cubs aging, but still fairly talented, lineup. We hope we're wrong, because deep down, we're still big Rossy D guys and want him to succeed. We're more than a little concerned about the results of tonight's start, though, especially without a true long-reliever available in the 'pen.

What do you think, CapBallers? Is Ross in line for more pain as a starter? Does he have a future as a reliever? Should they unload him before his body completely breaks down? Sound off in the comments!

So Much For Detwiler's Breakout Year

On Thursday morning, Capitol Baseball got its first live look at Ross Detwiler in an outing for the Syracuse Chiefs, who were taking on the Louisville Bats (awesome). Detwiler took a perfect game into the 4th inning, and he ended up getting the win (5-5 on the season), but things aren't looking so great for Rossy D. overall. We were excited about Ross's progress to start the season, because his stats looked great in spring training and had a quick start in the International League. Here's why we're concerned, now.

There are a few things about looking at Detwiler's line that are pretty easy to point out from the start. His 5.13 ERA while pitching to minor league talent is certainly of serious concern and so is the .387 BABIP that opposing hitters are putting up against him. Compared with his stint last year in Syracuse, his strikeouts per 9 innings are up, but his walks per 9 innings have nearly doubled.

In addition to the increased walks, we're extremely concerned with Detwiler's steadily decreasing velocity. In 2007, Detwiler's average fastball velocity was 93.2 mph, which showed he had could be the power lefty the Nats lacked. In 2009, Detwiler's average velocity dropped to 91.1 mph for his fastball and recorded an 84.2 mph changeup, on average. In 2010, Detwiler's fastball velocity dropped further to 89.8 mph and his changeup velocity increased to 84.8 mph.

What does that mean? Well, one of the most important parts of pitching is deception. When Detwiler averages a fastball that is only 5 mph faster than his changeup, it makes it difficult to surprise hitters. During his outing on Thursday, we never saw Detwiler break the 90 mph mark with his heater. His changeup stuck around 83 mph. What's worse, he doesn't show the command that a pitcher that only throws in the upper-80s needs to succeed.

For all these reasons, and despite our rave reviews in April, we are legitimately concerned that Ross Detwiler will turn out to be the first big time draft bust in the Nats organization. No, I won't say Chris Marrero (2006) will be a bust, yet, but Detwiler is certainly heading in that direction. Here's hoping whatever's going on with Rossy D. can be resolved soon.

Ross Detwiler's Breakout Season?

(Photo Courtesy Gloria Wright/The Post-Standard)

Ross Detwiler's breakout 2011 Spring Training couldn't possibly have come sooner. The 25-year old lefty has had a career marred by hip problems and a looming cloud of being a 6th overall draft pick in the 2007 Amateur Draft, just behind the Rays' David Price and the O's Matt Wieters and before the Giants' LHP Madison Bumgarner and the Braves' phenom Jason Heyward. That's a lot of talent to compete with, and until this season, Rossy D has disappointed far too often.

During spring training, however, Detwiler threw 17 innings (3rd most of any Nats pitcher), giving up just 3 walks, striking out 12, and posting a 2.65 ERA (lowest among potential starters). It wasn't the stats that worked against him this spring, though. It was available roster spots. Almost any other season since 2005, Detwiler would have been a lock for the 25-man roster. But with Livo, Lannan, Marquis, and Zimmermann, plus a newly acquired Tom Gorzelanny, Detwiler never stood a chance.

Detwiler was disappointed, but understood why he didn't make the roster after such a great spring. He continued to prove his worth in Syracuse, the Nats Triple-A affiliate, though. After his 4th start of the season on Monday night against Scranton-Wilkes Barre (my hometown), Detwiler is sporting a 2-0 record, a 2.22 ERA, 20 strikeouts, and 6 walks in 24.1 innings. He's made it at least 6 innings in all 4 starts.

We here at Capitol Baseball are huge Detwiler fans, but we were concerned that he was never going to become the prospect that the Nats signed in 2007. While it's too soon to tell if this is the real Ross, I know we speak for many when we say it's better late than never, right?

Above average starting pitching in DC early this season continues to block Detwiler's promotion to the big club, which is exactly the problem you want to have if you're Mike Rizzo. But if Detwiler continues with this sensational start to the 2011 campaign, you have to imagine it won't be long before the hard-throwing lefty makes his way down the east coast to Washington to help the Nats in some capacity.

It could even become a possibility that the Nats would trade a veteran guy, as we analyzed late last week. Jason Marquis is at the end of his contract and would be perfect trade bait to a contender in late-July. Tom Gorzelanny, even though the Nats just picked him up this season, is arbitration-eligible this coming offseason. It will be his 3rd arbitration, and he could be due for another salary increase. He's currently already making $2.1 million. It could be advantageous to trade Gorzelanny for prospects and have Detwiler replace him as the lefty to round out the rotation.

All of this begs the question, could this finally be Ross Detwiler's breakout season? What do you think, CapBallers?

Comeback Falls Short Against 'Stros

Capitol Baseball spent the day in Viera running around, eating at the Barry Svrluga Memorial Panera, and playing Wiffleball in the parking lot (pictures to follow). Then the game finally began. In a chilly night at Space Coast where the temps dropped into the mid-40s, the home team fell after a valiant comeback attempt against an Astros team that started a #95 and #93. The deets are as follows...

- Starting Pitcher Livan Hernandez threw 77 pitches in just 3 innings of work, allowing 7 hits and 3 runs. At times Livan seemed to be having trouble controlling the ball, getting to several 3 ball counts. As has been the case in the past few days, Livan was no exception to the struggles of putting guys away. 3-2 counts would lead to hard hit balls.

- After all was said and done, Houston's batters had notched up 17 hits against the combo of Livan, Wood, Detwiler, and Barthmaier.

- Hat tip to Jesus Flores who got his first hit of the Spring in dramatic fashion, crushing a ball over the wall in Right-Center for a 2-run Homer. Good to seem him starting to find his stroke.

- The phenom had another youthful effort tonight, going 1 for 2 with a first-pitch RBI single and making an impressive catch on the run in the field. Harper ran into some issues when he came in to run for Jayson Werth though, as he committed one of baseball's cardinal sins - making the last out of the inning at 3rd base.

- The Nationals defense was particularly brutal tonight, with Nyjer Morgan being the ring-leader yet again. In one inning Nyjer had a ball drop in front of him that went off of his glove, and then got burned badly on a ball that he just flat out missed; not very impressive. Ian Desmond added his 4th error of the spring as well... Not a good sign for my prediction that he would reduce his error count by 15....

- Lefty Ross Detwiler continued to show why he should be considered for the 5th spot in the rotation. Giving up 6 hits in 4 innings (4 of which were 12 hoppers into the gap/seeing eye singles), Detwiler showed impressive command; striking out 2 and walking none. Detwiler is going to have a great year, no matter where he ends up.

- The #1 Star of the Day once again goes to Michael Morse, who went 2 for 2 with a monster home run to deep Right Center. Morse needs to be our starting LF, he has earned that much this spring. In his 25 ABs, he has 12 hits; 4 of which are home runs. He needs to be playing every day, providing power and size while hitting for a high average.

- Big shout out to Dave and Cheryl Nichols of Nats News Network, Tom from We Love DC, Drew from Nats NQ, Bill Ladson, Phil Wood, Bob Carpenter and Capitol Baseball reader F.P. Santangelo for taking the time to talk baseball with both Joe and I. Thanks Everyone!

Nats are now 8-5 on the Spring, what are you looking forward to in the next 3 weeks til Opening Day? Sound off in the comments.

Pursuit of Perfection in Tact

Obviously, these games are meaningless in the grand scheme (lets be honest, its way better than the NFL combine). I know that and you know that. The events taking place in these exhibitions can only be measured by certain amounts and should always be taken with a grain of salt.

It is widely known in baseball circles that, once real games begin, pitchers are going to be ahead of hitters and that certain hitters want to just see some real pitching before taking their hacks. That being said, patterns will begin to emerge (both good and bad) that can shape the future of this ballclub. These Spring Training game "recaps" are going to focus on those trends, both positive and negative.

Tuesday - March 1
Nats 5 - Mets 3

- Bryce Harper got his first hit, and according to Jayson Stark over at ESPN, he asked for the ball. Awesome.

- Nyjer Morgan (0 for 6 in 2 games) continues his assault on Justin Maxwell's "Worst Performance in Spring Training" record, set last year when JMax went 5 for 50. Adding his 2nd failed bunt in as many games, Morgan has some 'splaining to do.

- In 2 games, Nats pitchers have only walked 2, while striking out 19. Part of a new aggressive approach from the braintrust of McCatty and Riggleman. I am very interested in seeing how this pans out.

- Jayson Werth didn't take the bat off of his shoulder, drawing a walk and striking out. I am assuming that he just wants to see some game action before he starts hacking.

- Center Fielder Corey Brown, sprained his ankle. He will be fine.

- Former 1st round pick Chris Marrero went 2 for 2 in his first appearance of the year, adding several quality defensive plays. Good.

- I'm not reading anything into Storen's 2-run 9th. Nor should you.

- Michael Morse and Danny Espinosa continued their blazing hot starts. Espinosa hit his first homer of the spring, and is now 2 for 4 with a homer and 2 RBI. Morse, meanwhile, is now 5 for 7 in his 2 games with 4 RBI, 3 Runs, and 2 HR.

- My choice for the #1 star of the game goes to Ross Detwiler. The former 1st round pick debuted his new mechanics, and got some serious results; allowing only 2 hits (one of which was a bloop) while striking out 3 in 2 innings of action. Velocity reached 91-93 and, most importantly, Ross felt comfortable on the mound. A solid spring could boost Detwiler to the #5 spot, a spot many think that he should be past by this point.

Post your comments about the Nats 2 "games" in down in the comments section!

5 Players to Watch

With Pitcher's and Catcher's now firmly situated in Viera, running through flip drills and bullpen sessions, the dust is finally being kicked up on the 2011 season. We have gone over some of the spring training battles in the past, focusing on different positions and roles that are up in the air. Now it's time to turn our attention to some more specifics, who exactly are we watching and what for? Lets' single out 5 players who we've got our eyes on in Spring Training.

Jesus Flores - Catcher
Is he finally healthy? Flores has spent his career as a long-shot, signed as an amateur free agent by the Mets, the 17 year-old Flores worked his way up through the system. By 2006, Flores was busy hitting .266 with an OPS of .822, in 120 games in High-A Port St. Lucie (also 21 HR and 70 RBI). The Mets decided to leave him off their 40-man roster at the end of the season and the Nats picked him in the Rule 5 draft, hoping to keep him on the big league team for the rest of the year. Flores proved to be a very serviceable backup, providing mediocre numbers with solid defense while giving fans hope for the future. He would spend much of the next 3 years on the DL with a variety of injuries ranging from a sprained ankle to broken shoulder to a torn labrum. Is this the time where Flores is finally healthy and ready to build on his amazing start to the 2009 season (.301 AVG and .877 OPS)?

Ross Detwiler - LHP
Is he finally healthy? This blurb will appear very similar to the previous one, with all the same stories being told. Tons of untapped potential. The only difference here is that Ross Detwiler was taken as the 6th overall selection in the 2007 Draft. Detwiler had the distinction of falling into the same boat as Justin Maxwell, called up to the Majors just a few months after signing with the club, starting his arbitration clock way too early. Early on it became evident that Ross was going to run into lots of problems due to the fact that his delivery crossed his body, creating unnecessary pressure on his left hip. True enough, he has had 2 separate trips to the DL with a chronic hip injury. In his limited time in the Majors, Ross has put up a 2-9 record with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP, not very solid for a first-round selection. If Ross can't put it together this year, it's time to starting using the word "bust".

Nyjer Morgan - CF
Nyjer's problems have been well-documented. Coming over from the Pirates in 2009, Morgan solidified a position as a future Nats star when he hit .351 and stole 24 out of 31 bags in just 49 games. Then 2010 rolled around, and it became apparent that Morgan was a loose cannon. His batting average dropped to a career low and he led baseball in Caught Stealing, hopefully new Nats 3B coach Bo Porter can work his magic in that department... Stats aside, there were tantrums in the outfield and brawls in Florida, Morgan lost a lot of goodwill with the fans. Normally this would be forgiven with solid play (See: Manny Ramirez's entire career), but Morgan struggled in every place he succeeded just one year prior; at the plate, on the basepaths, and in the field. I am already on the record as saying that I believe Morgan will lose his job by July, its now up to him whether or not that happens.

Jason Marquis - RHP
Marquis was last years "big name pitcher" the Nats acquired after failing to get someone better. Signed for a 2 year/$15 million dollar contract, Marquis dazzled opposing team's fans in his first three starts, giving up 19 ER in his first 8 IP in a Nationals uniform. The lowest of low points came on the Nats first Sunday Home game of the year, when Marquis failed to record an out despite giving up 7 ER en route to a 10 run first innning. Immediately going on the DL with a "right elbow injury" (read: case of the can't-pitch-itis), Marquis was out for most of the year. He came back in August and proceeded to pitch in a bi-polar nature; couple good starts, then a bad one, couple good starts, really bad one. The only impressive thing from his 2010 season is that he was able to lower his ERA from 20.52 all the way down to 6.60 by the end of the year. Going into Spring Training, he is almost guaranteed a spot on the rotation due to the large financial commitment ($7.5 million) the team has already made. Marquis needs to have a quick recovery from his worst year as a professional, if it doesn't happen by the end of Spring Training I could see Marquis getting a pink-slip before the ball club heads north to Washington.

Bryce Harper - OF
The wunderkind himself. No player will get as much buzz as the 18 year old phenom come March 1st. In all reality Bryce Harper has no real shot at making the big league ball club, but that won't matter to baseball pundits or fans. Fresh out of a stellar performance at the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .343 with a 1.039 OPS, this will only be Harper's second experience with Major League pitching. The only real markers that Nats fans should be looking for out of Bryce will be his adjustment to the outfield and how he can hit a Big League curveball. I, for one, hope that when Capitol Baseball makes our trek down to Viera that Bryce Harper is still in Big League Camp.