Leadoff Plan B

Ian Desmond will be the Nats shortstop for 2012. He will begin the year as the lead-off man, whether or not he stays there for 2012 is very much up in the air. So far this spring he is just 3 for 20 and 0 walks. Zero. His OBP is a paltry .150 with 7 Ks in 20 ABs. These are not the numbers you want to see out of your lead-off man, even if it is spring training. So maybe its time we talk about possible plan Bs. Here are several possible scenarios for names you might see at the top of the line-up card should Desmond have a less than stellar April and May.

Danny Espinosa: Last year he got on-base at a .323 clip, not ideal. But he is speedy, a switch hitter, and perhaps with a lead-off hitters approach and mindset he could train himself to walk more and see more pitches he could see both his OBP and SLG %s rise. I believe he would be the first plan B should Desi fail in the 1 hole.

Jayson Werth: He was signed by the Nats to be a run-producer in the middle of the line-up. But perhaps he will end up having more value as a guy with a lifetime .360 OBP. He is athletic and smart and could adapt to the strategies of the lead-off spot. With Zim, Morse and eventually Bryce, he may not be counted on as much to drive in runs, freeing him up to lead-off.

Rick Ankiel: If we get this far down the Plan B hierarchy...we are in trouble. But I believe in a man named Rick Ankiel. He is an athlete, he knows how pitchers think and can jump start an inning with an extra-base hit. He hit for a .340 OBP back in 2008 and is capable of stealing bases. He strikes out too much, but again, this would definely be a stop-gap solution.

Unnamed Player Traded For: Rizzo wants that long term solution for CF and the lead-off spot. The MLB Trade Rumor heat has died down somewhat on Nats trading for a CF, but that's when it seems Rizzo strikes. It would not shock me in the least if at some point before April 5 Mike swings a deal for a young outfielder with high OBP potential.

On a roster with plenty of talent, the lead-off spot has to worry Davey Johnson and Mike Rizzo. If Ian Desmond proves incapable of holding down the lead-off spot, the cupboard is pretty bare when it comes to OBP and speed. So Nats fans, hold your breath for Ian Desmond and cross your fingers for Mike Rizzo and the CF trade market.

Former Nats Greats - Postseason Edition

While watching some playoff ball over the past several nights (and dreaming of future possibilities), I noticed that there are a few former Nats players playing in this years postseason. Some of them are recent members, but there are also some throwbacks to the Frank Robinson glory days. Let's take a brief look at the players involved and their Nats careers.

Luis Ayala - Yankees - was with the '05, '07, and '08 Nats. Luis racked up the name, Gas Can, in his final year with the Nats.
- 11-17 Record. 174 games. 171.0 IP. 3.84 ERA. 104 K. 48 BB. 1.339 WHIP. 0.1 WAR.

Joel Peralta - Rays - was with the '10 Nats. Was absolutely lights-out, but wanted a two-year deal despite very limited experience.
- 1-0 Record. 39 games. 49.0 IP. 2.02 ERA. 49 K. 9 BB. 0.796 WHIP. 0.7 WAR.

Brian Schneider - Phillies - was with the '05-'07 Nats. Caught the first pitch in Nationals history, from George Bush and then Livan Hernandez.
- .253 AVG. .681 OPS. 20 HR. 153 RBI. 4.6 WAR. 33.7% CS.

Marco Estrada - Brewers - was with the '08 and '09 Nats. Was the subject of Former Nats Greats #17 right here on Capitol Baseball (probably his best achievement).
- 0-1 Record. 15 Games. 20.0 IP. 7.20 ERA. 19 K. 9 BB. 1.600 WHIP. -0.4 WAR.

Jerry Hairston - Brewers - was with this years' Nats. Stand up guy that did all that was asked of him - including play 5 different positions.
- .268 AVG. .727 OPS. 4 HR. 24 RBI. 0.4 WAR.

Nyjer Morgan - Brewers - was with the '09 and '10 Nats. He is 31 years-old and he still goes by a self-assigned nickname from college. Also, he racked up a 3.1 WAR in just 49 games with the '09 Nats - that's a 10.2 WAR spread over 162 games... Absurdity.
- .280 AVG. .339 OBP. 58 SB. 113 K. 4.2 WAR.

There is your quick journey through all of the Former Nats Greats in this years Postseason.

Hopefully next year we can be talking about Current Nats Greats in the Postseason...

Trade Watch 2011: Ian Desmond

Continuing on our series of potential trade candidates that the Nats may have available today we feature our "SS of the future", Ian Desmond.

Desmond is one of the most interesting players in the entire Nats organization. Drafted way back in 2004, he has been touted by each General Manager as the "Shortstop of the Future" - hell even Jim Bowden called him the "next Derek Jeter". His path to the majors has been as circuitous as a Nook Logan route to a fly ball - with demotions from AA and extended stays in High-A ball - 6 MiLB years in total.

After all that, Desmond is only 25 years-old and in his second full year in the big leagues, which most people forget. He came on strong with a September call-up back in 2009 and hit a solid .280 with some speed and pop, with some flashy yet error-prone defense. Desmond earned the starting SS spot for the following year although the team already employed veteran SS cog Cristian Guzman. His rookie year was pretty standard, hit with a decent SS average and knocked in 65 runs, while racking up a whopping 34 errors (-8.8 UZR).

Going into this year the Nats brass decided that hey wanted Desmond to focus a bit more on defense and try to reduce the amount of errors. So far, Desmond has fared much better, racking up a 1.9 UZR and committing just 13 errors so far - showing far more maturity than he has in the past.

However, much to the teams chagrin, Desmond's offense has regressed substantially from 2010.
-His batting average is down .043 points.
-His wOBA is down .043 points as well.
-His OPS is down .120 points.
-His K-Rate is up 4%.

By now, Scouts and Brass are secretly saying that Desmond's future lies as that of a Super-Utility player, capable of playing both Infield and Outfield (he did register some time in RF last year). Truth be told, I think Desmond is turning into a solid defensive SS and could be an above average 2B.

All of these things have prompted many in NatsTown to call for a trade of Desmond - to be followed by an Espinosa move to SS and the immediate promotion of 2B prospect Stephen Lombardozzi, who is hitting .376 in split time at AA/AAA.

Contenders: Red Sox, Indians, Brewers, Diamondbacks Giants (despite their trade for Keppinger)

Return: Multiple Prospects - at least one upper level prospect.

Desmond's numbers don't show it but he is an extremely valuable piece for a contender. Not only is his defense improving drastically, but this is only his second full year as a big-leaguer and he is under team control through 2015. A cheap piece that could benefit the club for years to come. So, the question is on your CapBallers. Would you trade away Ian Desmond? What do you want in return?

Trade Watch 2011: Jason Marquis

Today we bring to you part 2 of our 11 part series designed to highlight those pieces the Nats could trade away. Featured today is one of our two Long-Islanders on the starting rotation - Jason Marquis.

There are three different criteria that teams in the hunt look for when considering a trade for a starting pitcher.
1 - Veteran? - Check. Marquis debuted in 2000 with perennial playoff contenders, the Braves.
2 - Contract year? - Check. At the end of a 2 year/$15 Million deal
3 - Proven winner? - Check. Won 10 games a year in 6 straight seasons.

Marquis completely fits the bill for a team looking to upgrade their starting rotation. And in addition to all those intangibles - Marquis is in the midst of one of the better statistical seasons he has had in his whole career.
K/9 - 5.42 - his best since 2004.
BB/9 - 2.75 - would be a career best.
ERA - 3.92 - best since 2004.
FIP - 3.68 - would be a career best.

Now, Marquis isn't going to light the world on fire and have a Cliff Lee-circa-2010-like influence on a contender but he will easily slide into the 4 hole in a stacked rotation. He doesn't have a future on this organization past 2011, so its time for Rizzo to pull the trigger and trade away Marquis. Besides, its time to see what we have in Detwiler, Peacock, and Wang.

Contenders - Red Sox, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Indians, Tigers, Rangers, Pirates, Cardinals, Reds

Return - Two mid/upper-mid level prospects - One AA/AAA, one High or Low-A.

All this plus the fact that his stock has never been higher after his outstanding 8 inning performance on Friday night.

I appreciate that Marquis was able to put together a solid year after such a disastrous 2010 - now he needs to do his part and get traded to a contender for some prospects.

What say you, CapBallers? Do you even want to see Marquis traded? Who do you think he could be traded to and what for?

Trade Watch 2011: Tyler Clippard

Here at Capitol Baseball, we're fond of series. That way, we can provide you as much information as we possibly can without writing Joe Posnanski length posts. With this next series, over the next 11 days, we'll be discussing 11 Nats that could end up in other uniforms before the July 31st trade deadline. Today's trade topic: Tyler Clippard.

It makes sense that, just like last season with Matt Capps, the Nats lone All-Star representative (and All-Star Game winner) ends up at the top of our list. We don't want to draw a lot of comparisons between Clippard and Capps, because we think that Clippard has a lot better "stuff" than Capps ever did. But we will use some comparisons to help explain our reasoning to why Clippard could be traded for the right pieces.

Now, this isn't easily put, but relievers are a dime a dozen. Bullpen guys are a crucial aspect of the baseball game, and teams without a bullpen simply can't compete, but that said, besides Mariano Rivera, I can't think of a single "untouchable" reliever in baseball. A GM would be crazy not to take a phone call on Clippard if it would get a valuable piece for the organization. (See: Ramos, Wilson)

It's also proven to be extremely hard for a reliever to remain consistent over multiple years, especially with the number of innings that Clippard has pitched in the 'pen over the last couple seasons. At some point, some guys need to be sold high that have a high probability of breaking down, and sadly, Clipp is on that list.

On the flip side, though, Clippard is under team control until 2015 and could prove to be a valuable piece in the future-Nats successes. We're not saying the Nats should take Clippard and unload him for anyone. He's a valuable piece and if the right trade didn't come along, the Nats would be crazy to let him go.

Clippard is arbitration eligible in 2012 and will command a big raise over his sub-million dollar salary, which is just a bit of extra info to help you make your decision.

So what do you think, CapBallers? Would you trade Clippard for the right pieces? If so, who? Remember to think with your baseball head, and not with your love of "The Goggles."

PM Discussion Post: Trading Block

It's now July 5th and you are sitting in your office this afternoon wishing you were at another barbeque, probably surfing the internet for something to occupy your time before its quitting time. We are glad to provide you with something to keep you busy. Let's talk.

If someone would've told you that the Nats would be at .500 on July 4th despite injuries to Zimmerman and LaRoche and with an ineffective Werth, would you believe them? I know that I wouldn't, as my prediction was for 75 wins, I believe. We have gotten to this point with timely hitting, solid defense, and outstanding starting pitching. Which leads me to this question...

With all the quality AA/AAA pitching depth the Nats have (Detwiler, Maya, Millone, Meyers, Peacock), and with the Nats flirting with a Wild Card Birth (7 games out) ...

1) Would you trade Marquis, Livo, and/or Gorzelanny now?
2) Who would you bring up to replace them?

We would love to hear your ideas in the Comments!

Nats Scouting BJ Upton [UPDATE]

According to MLB Network Insider Peter Gammons the Nationals have a scout down in Tampa this evening to watch their tilt against the While Sox. His report on MLBN's new Live afternoon program, The Rundown, said that the Nats were looking at former #2 Overall Prospect, Melvin Emmanuel Upton - known to the baseball world as BJ.

[UPDATE - 5:55] Ken Rosenthal's latest blog "Nationals: Seeking help in center" lists the Nationals going after Upton as well as to "Expect the Nats to be linked to any and all available center fielders". He also takes time to note that should a trade not happen, Upton will be a free agent after 2012.

His stats since arriving in the majors in 2004 (as a 19 year-old) have been a mixed bag, prompting questions that he was called up way too early in his development. And it stands to reason that the 26 year-old just needs a change of scenery. Through his now 7 year career Upton has hit .260 with a .759 OPS. He provides speed and range in OF as well as on the basepaths, racking up 167 career SB and a total OF UZR of 18.5.

Upton is somewhat of a local to the area, having grown up in Chesapeake playing Little League with Ryan Zimmerman. This news comes as an interesting development to this new 2011 season for several reasons.

1) What does this mean for Michael Morse?

His slow start to this season has not shined a good light on the front office, after they anointed him the starting Left-Fielder just two weeks into Grapefruit League action. Morse has hit just .205 this year, with a minuscule .513 OPS raising questions as to whether he should be in the position at all. If this trade goes through I believe that we would be seeing Werth in RF, Upton in CF, and Ankiel in LF - until Morse can outplay Ankiel for the LF job.

2) What does this mean for the future of Roger Bernadina?

Bernadina has always been a better LF than a CF, so this move really wouldn't affect his outlook at all - as Upton is a CF.

3) Could we see an Outfield of Werth in LF, Upton in CF, and Harper in RF?

We can only dream, right?

Is Jason Marquis Trade Bait?

The approaching 2011 season continues to get baseball fans across the country excited. The question that everyone wants to know is: Will my team be competitive? In the case of the Nationals, it's likely that they'll be better than last season, but still won't make a playoff push. So what does that do for the few guys that are making a ton of money this year as the trade deadline approaches?

A few things are sure. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth aren't going anywhere. So who's next on the list in salary for 2011? Jason Marquis. Actually, Marquis will make the same amount as Werth this season, and more than Ryan Zimmerman. What's wrong with that picture?

Anyways, whether Marquis has a successful 2011 or not, the Nationals may not be willing to pay that kind of money ($7.5 million per year) again to sign him beyond this season. Meanwhile, some fringe contenders might be willing to eat some or all of his contract in order to have a veteran pitcher on the roster for a playoff push. Clearly the prospects of this happening will be greater if Marquis has a successful first half since his value will be higher.

I'm among those that are extremely skeptical of the possibility of Marquis' success in 2011. Even after his recovery from surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow, he was incredibly inconsistent toward the end of the season. I do take into account his injury and that he may not have been 100%. So perhaps my prejudgement is unfair. But I hope for the best and another guy that can eat up innings and provide 15 wins like he did just 2 short seasons ago in Colorado. Either way though, success or not in 2011, I'd imagine Marquis is somewhere on the Nationals trading block.

Trade Candidate?

NOTE: I wrote this post on January 17th with the intention of it being a rainy-day post; for a slow news day. In the past week however, Phil Wood included a note in his MASN blog about the Nats having interest (at least internally) about dealing for Fausto Carmona and Grady Sizemore; since being debunked by every major Nationals internal source and every major news network. With that in mind, I just wanted to share this with you now that the cat is apparently out of the bag. No longer a rainy-day post, but now (maybe) a possibility, enjoy my thoughts about exploring a Grady Sizemore trade.

The summer of 2002 was a rough time for the Expos organization, they were in fighting for 1st place in the NL East and they had a chance to make the postseason for the first time in over 20 years. They needed some help to achieve that however, and General Manager Omar Minaya had little hope in a future of baseball in Montreal as the writing was already on the wall that the franchise was doomed. Minaya decided that his best shot at a winner was to do some mid-summer wheeling and dealing. In the span of two and half weeks the Expos traded away Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Carl Pavano, and Brandon Phillips for players such as Tim Drew and Bartolo Colon. As they say, the rest is history.

Now, one of those players listed above, after being named "without a doubt one of the greatest players of our generation" by his GM, is on thin ice with his organization. Who might I be talking about? Grady Sizemore.

Sizemore has played in Cleveland since his major league debut in 2004, garnering national attention and numerous accolades for his baseball prowess. But in the past two years, his expensive contract has become a boondoggle for the Indians, as he has missed significant time due to major injury (throwing elbow and left knee microfracture surgery). Today, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reported that the Indians hold an $8.5 million dollar option for 2012, meaning that the club will need to decide over the next 9 months if they want to take a chance on exercising the option, pulling off a trade, or letting him walk. Could Sizemore potentially end up with the team that drafted him 75th overall in the 2000 MLB Draft?

This is where the Nats come in.

GM Mike Rizzo has never been shy in pulling the trigger on a trade, as evidenced recently by his massive attempt at Zach Greinke. And although Sizemore is a fan favorite back in Cleveland, I believe that the club's patience is waning after 2 years of serious injury. That, coupled with Nyjer Morgan's up-and-down career in Washington, the Nats may be looking to upgrade at center field with this 3-time All-Star and 2-time Gold Glove winner.

Lets take a look at his 162-Game Averages:
.272 AVG. .840 OPS. 25 HR. 84 RBI. 112 Runs. 26 SB.

Career WAR: 28.2 (Fangraphs). 27.9 (Baseball-Reference)
Career UZR: 29.2

Yes, he has suffered major surgery in the past 12 months, but this is a hard-nosed player who has the possiblity to be a steal for a club like the Nats. There are, of course, a lot of dominoes that would have to fall in order for this to become a reality (Nyjer continue his demise, Sizemore burns some bridges, etc.), but I am just putting this out there to the Natosphere to see what you all think of potentially adding Grady Sizemore to the team.

Would you add Grady Sizemore to the Nats? What would you give up for him? Sound off in the Comments Section!

Hammer Dealt [Updated]

Most of you have seen the news that the Nationals have traded Josh Willingham to the Oakland A's. I am going to reserve judgment on this trade until I see all the pieces in place. That being said though, I think this will end up being a good trade for the Nationals in the long run.

Willingham, though still under team control through this coming season, is 31 years old and his body is breaking down like a 38 year old. He has had numerous stints on the DL for a variety of maladies. And, while it hurts to see the Hammer go, sometimes you have to do whats best for the long-term good of the team. For a team that needs to get faster, more athletic, and better defensively, Hammer (and Dunn) don't fit that mold.

[Update - 3:27]

In return for Willingham, the Nats are receiving RHP Henry Rodriguez and OF Corey Brown.

23 year old right-handed power pitcher. Pitched 27.2 innings with the A's last year and put up a 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and an absolutely filthy 10.73 K/9. In AAA Sacramento in 21.1 IP he had a 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a more filthy 13.08 K/9.

Rodriguez has the potential to be a solid bullpen arm, who may even join the battle-royal for the #5 spot in the rotation.

Corey Brown is a 25 year old left-handed outfielder who has 30HR potential but has been sidelined in the past 24 months with a knee injury. A quick look at his stats show domination at the AA level (at age 24) but struggles at AAA. Last year in 90 games at AA Midland he hit .320, drove in 49, with an OPS of .916. But at 41 games at AAA Sacramento he hit just .196, with 20 RBIs, and a meager .631 OPS.

Brown is at the point in his career where its time to move on or be left behind (See: Justin Maxwell). At 25 he is reaching the point where he is too old to be a prospect and runs the risk of becoming the dreaded AAAA player (See: Justin Maxwell). In my opinion he doesn't project higher than a .260 hitter with mediocre power (See: Justin Maxwell).

The Nats were able to get 2 of the A's top 15 prospects for an arbitration eligible player that is coming off of knee surgery and who everyone knew wasn't going to be in DC for 2011 due to the Werth signing.

Trade Grade: B+

Stay tuned for more awesome coverage from your friends here at Capitol Baseball.

Nationals Sign Jayson Werth [update]

Ken Rosenthal and Bill Ladson are reporting that the Washington Nationals have signed former Philadelphia Phillies RF Jayson Werth. The contract appears to be a 7 year deal at $126 million for the 31 year old.

I'm not going to say I told you so, but I TOLD YOU SO! I've been telling people for months that if the Nationals failed to sign Adam Dunn, they would go for Jayson Werth. Nats GM Mike Rizzo has been looking for a viable option in right field for more than a year now, and with Dunn gone, it opens a significant amount of money to sign an excellent offensive and defensive right fielder to a long term deal. The platoon in right field in 2010 of Michael Morse and Roger Bernadina will be no more in 2011 after this signing.

While Werth doesn't put up the power numbers that Dunn is capable of, it still provides significant cushion behind Ryan Zimmerman after losing the protection of Dunn in the batting order. And he is a significant defensive upgrade on the field, as Werth has a great arm and outstanding range.

This long-term signing raises some of the same issues that a long-term Adam Dunn contract would have had, since they're both in their 30s. But Werth's contract is 3 years longer than Dunn was looking for. I'm sure many people will be questioning that move in the weeks to come.

We'll dig into the numbers and whether this is a good signing throughout the week (spoiler: I think it is), because this is simply going to be a huge story in the coming days. It's about time folks, the Nationals have made national baseball news this off-season. Stick with Capitol Baseball throughout the week for more.

[Update - 5:17PM]
Nats will lose their 2nd round pick, as Jayson Werth is a Type-A Free Agent. The Nats 1st round pick was protected due to their record being in the bottom 60% of the league. Though with Dunn signing a contract with the White Sox the Nationals will still have 3 picks in the top 35-40.

Dunn On Waivers: Please Continue Breathing

Adam Dunn was placed on waivers by the Nats this afternoon. OH MY GOD!

No. Stop.

When people refer to the "trade deadline" in baseball, they usually mean the non-waiver trade deadline, or July 31st.  On or before this date, teams can trade players to their hearts content (pending league approval) without sending the player through waivers.

From August 1st through August 31st, players must pass through revocable waivers.  (Since players must be on the active roster by August 31st to be eligible for the playoffs, not too many trades are going to happen after that date.)  That means, since it is after August 1st and before August 31st, Adam Dunn has been placed on revocable waivers.  Meaning that if any team tries to claim Dunn, Rizzo can say "nope" and pull him back. In all likelihood, that's exactly what he'll do.

However, if Dunn passes through waivers and none of the 29 other teams claim him, he is then eligible to be traded just like he was before July 31st.  Kapish?  Doesn't mean Dunn is going anywhere, but Rizzo is continuing to explore his options, and why not?  That is his job, after all.

I hope you've enjoyed our Baseball 302 lecture on trades this afternoon.  I'd say this stuff is a bit to advanced to be considered a 101 class.  And now I've realized I've spent too much time thinking about the number I just gave this fake class.  Ok, so you stop worrying about Dunn and enjoy the Nats (Olsen) and the D-Backs (Saunders) tonight, and I'll stop spending so much time on meaningless banter.

Goodbye Guzman

The Washington Nationals have traded INF Cristian Guzman to the Texas Rangers for yet-to-be-named prospects.

After the move, SP Livan Hernandez is the only member of the Washington Nationals that was on the Opening Day roster in 2005.  After leaving the Nationals in 2006, he spent time with the D-backs, Twins, Rockies, and Mets before returning to DC at the end of 2009.  Guzman was the final player to be with the team since the first pitch in 2005.

Clipp, Store, and Burn: The Nats New Closing Trio (Plus a Farewell to the Capper)

(Photo Courtesy: Notes from NatsTown)

Late in the evening on June 29, 2010, the Nationals traded their lone 2010 All-Star, closer Matt Capps, to the Minnesota Twins. The Nationals picked up Capps before the season from Pittsburgh after posting an inadequate 5.80 ERA in 2009 and earning only 27 saves. Capps earned 26 with Washington with more than 2 months left in the season. He also posted a fantastic 2.80 ERA.

In exchange for Capps, the Nats received top catching prospect Wilson Ramos and a left handed minor league reliever, Joe Testa. The move to trade Capps for a guy like Ramos indicates that Jesus Flores' recovery may have stalled indefinitely after 2 years of attempted recovery from injury and an acknowledgement that Pudge Rodriguez is 38 years old.

Early Friday morning, MLB.com's Bill Ladson reported that Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, and Sean Burnett would split the closers role. So I propose a new name for the trio: Clipp, Store, and Burn. Different than good old Clipp 'n Save, but it'll work.

The Nationals and their fans will miss Capps' mild demeanor off the field and his intro music ("The Final Countdown") combined with his electric personality on the field. Capps will will join former Nats reliever Jon Rauch in the bullpen in the Twin Cities. Rauch has filled in admirably for the Twins injured closer Joe Nathan, securing 21 saves in 25 attempts. With Rauch setting up and a nearly automatic Capps closing, the Twins hope to push ahead of the the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central. As of Thursday, the Twins are 1.5 games back at 56-46.

Matt Capps has never played for a team that ended the season with a winning record. He's played for Pittsburgh, who hasn't had a winning season in 17 years, and for Washington who is on pace to lose just under 300 games between 2008-2010. Like the rest of NatsTown, I wish Capps the best in the Upper Midwest.

On Friday, Roy Oswalt and his new team, the Philadelphia Phillies, come to DC to face Craig Stammen and the Nats, so it seems unlikely that new new closer(s) will get an opportunity for a save. But that bullpen all of a sudden feels a bit more empty without Matt Capps. Get ready for Clipp, Store, and Burn.

What Will Be Done Without Dunn?

Many are predicting that today begins the final 4 days of Adam Dunn in a Washington Nationals uniform. I am not convinced, because no one seems to have any insider information on an actual deal in the works. But nonetheless, it's still possible. Adam Dunn's value is high, and he wants a lot. Should the Nats trade Dunn? Let's explore that for a minute:

Dunn's 2 years in Washington have been among the best of his career. His career average is .251. In 2009, he hit .267, the highest of his career. This season, he's even higher at .278. He's still on pace to hit around 40 home runs once again. His defense at 1st base is much improved. He's made a few extremely impressive defensive stops.

On the other end, Dunn is already 30 and will be 31 in November. He wants at least a 3 year extension and would prefer 4 years. With a 4 year contract, Dunn would be under contract until he's 35 years old. Not generally the prime of a power hitter's career. He's been a passable fielder, although not a great one. There are other guys currently in the organization that could probably replace the defense. But is there anyone that can replace the massive void in the lineup that would result in losing Adam Dunn?

• Michael Morse: Obviously Morse is the guy most likely to replace Dunn at 1st. Morse is listed at 6'5", only an inch shorter than Dunn. The infield has grown accustomed to having a big target over at 1st, and Morse fits the bill. You're trading a left handed power bat for an unproven right handed bat, and Morse is still only 2 years younger than Dunn. Still, there's no arguing, especially among Nationals fans, that Morse shouldn't have an opportunity to play. This could be his best shot to prove himself. He is batting .345 in 2010, after all.

• Adam Kennedy: Kennedy has gotten plenty of opportunities at 1st base coming in for Adam Dunn as a "defensive replacement" in late innings. Kennedy is almost half a foot shorter than Dunn. He's not a power bat, although he would keep a left handed bat in the lineup. Not to mention, Dunn's fielding % at 1st base: .994. Kennedy's at 1st base: .986.

• Chris Marrero: He's worth bringing up. He's a Jim Bowden signing that was another "(insert position here) Of The Future" player. In this case, it was 1st base. In his 5th season in the Nationals farm system, Marrero has had his first full season in Double A Harrisburg. So far in AA, Marrero is impressing. In 2010, he's hitting .291 with a .347 on base percentage and has hit 13 home runs. He has a .985 fielding percentage at 1st this season with 13 errors. Maybe this numbers improvement has given Rizzo & Co. some hope and think that a guy like Morse could hold 1st base until Marrero is ready. Weirder things have happened, and a guy can dream...

I was going to spend time exploring "are you kidding me?" guys like Alberto Gonzalez, but I figured Adam Kennedy was enough of a joke for one day, so I'll move along. So all of this begs the question, should the Nationals trade Adam Dunn? Basically, the team should offer Dunn a 3-year contract. He probably won't accept 2 years and 4 years is too long for a guy his age. Unless the Nats think they can transform the pitching rotation or get a few game changers with the Dunn trade, it is not a worthwhile transaction. If you can't re-sign Dunn, you definitely can't afford to go out and get a Prince Fielder or someone in the off-season.

The fact of the matter is, if the Nationals legitimately plan to compete in the NL East any time soon, they need to re-sign Adam Dunn. As always, I'd love to read your comments and thoughts, whether you think I'm right or ridiculously far off base.

Is Adam Dunn on his way out?

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Chicago White Sox are interested in trading for Adam Dunn to help jump start their terrible offense (the one that swept the Nats just over a week ago).

Well, according to Adam Kilgore at the Washington Post, there was a White Sox scout at the Nats/Braves game on Tuesday. Read into that what you will. In the game, Dunn went 0 for 5, with 3 strikeouts. Ouch. Now, I'm certainly not speculating that he blew his performance because the scout was there. However, Dunn is a smart guy, and I'm sure he knew that a scout was in the crowd. Maybe it was nerves because of that. Who knows? But one thing is for sure, Adam Dunn does not want to leave DC. He definitely doesn't want to leave DC to become a DH somewhere in the American League. He likes fielding, and he is getting better at it.

As someone who watches the Nats day in and day out, I acknowledge that the team is going to be dealing, not getting, star players this season. They're not good enough to contend, yet. But I, along with many people that I've spoken to, have become attached to the idea of Adam Dunn as a Washington National. I love seeing him play for the team, and I would like to see him stay with the club for several more years. Without him, Zimmerman has no power protection, and the Nats simply have no raw power on the team.

That said, realistically, Dunn's trade value is high right now and may be dealt before the July 31st deadline. One thing is for sure. If the Nats trade him, they better get someone good. If it's to the White Sox, it needs to be a front line starter. Mark Buehrle, perhaps? I know, I'm dreaming. Gavin Floyd AND another player? Maybe. 3 AA prospects? No longer going to cut it! Adam Dunn is one of the few quality power hitters in baseball today, and giving him up for prospects is an insult to him and to Nats fans that hope for a competing team in the reasonably near future.

Remember, stars usually aren't dying to sign contract extensions with a mediocre ball club like the Nats. This could be an opportunity that the Nats can take advantage of the situation. If they don't, they need to get something good that will produce today for the team. Not in 2, 3, 4, or more, years.... At some point, it's not going to be about building young guys, it's got to be about landing guys that are good NOW to push the team over the edge.