A Few Good Men: 14 - LaRoche

Well it’s the end of week 2 for our groundbreaking 44 part series detailing the minutiae of every player to don a Nats jersey in the calendar year 2011, so take a break from reading about the most amazing World Series game since Joe Carter and the Jays in 1993 (with David Freese playing the part of Joe) and enjoy…

Adam LaRoche – 31 Years Old – 8 Years MLB service

How he became a Nat – Signed as a Free Agent last offseason for 2 Years and 15 million dollars. There is a team option for a third year at 10 million.

The Raw Numbers

Games – 43

AVG - .172

Fielding % - 1.000

RBI – 15

The Key Stat – OPS - .546. The Nationals went out and signed Adam LaRoche this past off season looking for a run producing first baseman. About all Adam did was play first base. His OBP was a paltry .288, but the real eyesore is the .258 slugging percentage. Just 7 extra base hits in 151 Abs. Simply put, he was a nightmare at the plate, completely ineffective in every situation, failing to drive in runners, be it with timely hitting or an extra base hit.

Best Game – Very early in the year, April 7 against the Fish. Otherwise a quiet game for Adam, he hit a 2 run bomb in the top of the 11^th that proved to be the deciding blow. He did very little to impact games after this and quickly became an albatross around the neck of an anemic Nats offense early in the year.

Worst Game – So many to choose from. I’m going with May 14^th again. Losing 1-0 to the Marlins (who finished in last) while the run producing first baseman you signed in the offseason goes 0-4 with a K. If you want to go with WPA (wins probability added) it was April 30 against the Giants (WPA - -0.401, basically being 40 percent of the reason the Nats lost), another 1 run loss in which he went 0-4 with 1 K and 1 BB.

CapBall Grade – F – Sorry if that seems harsh, and it’s never good to see someone injured but given his abject failure at the plate and Michael Morse’s performance in his stead, but there is really no other grade to be given. Even his stellar fielding was not enough to move this grade upwards, given the limited number of games played, the relative difficulty of his position and the outstanding defenders he played alongside.

2012 Nats Status – Adam LaRoche enters spring training as the starting first-baseman just like last year. Although there have been many reports linking Prince Fielder to the Nats, there are simply greater priorities than first base, so LaRoche will be the guy in Viera. That being said, if he struggles and a fourth outfielder emerges, I would not be surprised to see Michael Morse slide back into the first base spot and push Adam to the bench. Spring Training is make-or-break for LaRoche’s career.

More thoughts to share about Adam LaRoche. Or perhaps mad love for David Freese. Leave it!

Morse is Going Back to the Outfield. We Don't Like It.

After Mike Morse's 21st ridiculously long home run of the season on Tuesday night, NatsTown was officially informed that Davey Johnson has little intention of playing Morse at 1st base after the September 1st expanded rosters. To make matters more interesting, Adam LaRoche has been all but guaranteed the starting 1B job once he's healthy.

I'm not quire sure how Beast Mode has taken this news, and he may have already known it from the start. But it doesn't sit well with us for a couple reasons.

1. Morse is hitting .334/.389/.607 in his career as a first baseman. Granted, it's on a fairly small sample size limited mostly to this season, but it's hard to argue with results. If Jose Reyes continues being hurt, there's a real chance that Morse could win the NL Batting Title.
2. As a left fielder, his numbers aren't so pretty: .248/.292/.339. Again, this is with an even smaller sample size, and lots of those numbers came from the disastrous start to this 2011 season when Adam LaRoche was (relatively) healthy and playing daily.

In all reality, the Nats didn't have a whole lot of options for Morse in yet another non-playoff season for the team. Eventually, the organization has to see what Chris Marrero can do against MLB pitching, so he'll get that chance this September.

The future will be interesting though, because as far as we know, Adam LaRoche will make a full recovery from shoulder surgery and return next season. Morse doesn't look natural in the outfield and has been outstanding at first base, but LaRoche has never played a day in the outfield in his MLB career. You certainly can't force him there now, and you have to play him when he's healthy. He's set to earn $8 million in 2012.

Luckily for the Nats, and all of us, Morse is under team control until the end of the 2013 season. With Bryce Harper set to make the trip to DC before then, another big free agency coming up, and a relatively hot middle of the order (Werth is still going to figure it out, right?), the Nats have certainly seemed to figure out their offensive problems of the 1st half. Now if they can avoid changing too many players' daily routines, it'll make the situation a lot more fluid into next year.

Bad News at 1B

About a half hour ago MLB.com beat writer Bill Ladson tweeted some rather unfortunate news about injured first-baseman Adam LaRoche. As you know, this spring LaRoche suffered a slight tear in his left labrum (his throwing arm/back hitting shoulder). Recently, he has reportedly thought that the injury is sapping all of his power at the plate; as shown by his dreadful .172/.288/.258 slashline.

The past few days has seen LaRoche seek out 2nd opinions, to figure out whether things have gotten worse. Long story short, they have.

Ladson reports, "According to #Nats 1B Adam LaRoche, he has a large tear in the labrum and some tearing in the rotator cuff." Continuing, "I'm not going to lie to you: After talking to #Nats 1B Adam LaRoche this evening, I'll be shocked if he came back this year."

According to Ladson, the plan in place has him taking 2 or 3 weeks, sans baseball activities, in an effort to rehab the shoulder. But once again, the Nats medical staff has mis-diagnosed and slow-played an injury to a key piece of the team.

My gut tells me that Morse will be getting the lion's share of playing time, with guest appearances by Stairs, Ankiel, and Pudge depending on Riggleman's mood. This is not the kind of news the scuffling Nats offense needs right now.

Nats Embarrass Mets in Extras

(Photo - Joe Drugan/Capitol Baseball 2011)

It was one of those ugly starts for Jason Marquis that Nats fans have come accustomed to seeing. Give up a couple runs to start the game, put your Ryan Zimmerman-less offense in a rut to start the game. But then Marquis settled down and put together a pretty spectacular start, ultimately giving up just 3 earned runs and striking out 9.

The 9 K's counted for Marquis best performance since September 4, 2004 (h/t Adam Kilgore). Marquis ERA on the season is now 3.65, proving his worth in earning $7.5 million.

The Nats offense tied the game in the 8th inning when Pudge got the first of his two clutch hits in this game. The Nats ultimately tied the game in the 8th but still the Nats left the bases loaded.

Adam LaRoche led off the 11th inning with a single and got scarified to 2nd by PH Jordan Zimmermann, but more bad news for the middle of the Nats lineup came when LaRoche was pulled from the game. No news on what the injury is yet, but with his partially torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, the bad news keeps coming for Adam.

Factor in Ryan Zimmerman's lingering abdominal issues and Jayson Werth's continued struggles at the plate, the middle of the lineup might be in for some serious struggles over the next 7-10 days.

25 in 25: Adam LaRoche (#4)

In 22 days, all the Nationals diehards will be preparing to head to Nationals Park on Opening Day. Until then, we're going to predict the 25 man roster. With one catch. We're going to do it one day at a time. This way, we can provide more in depth thoughts on who we think is going to make the roster, why we think so, and what to expect from them in 2011. On the morning of Opening Day, we'll post the real 25-man compared with what we predicted.

Our list rolls on this morning with our starting first baseman, Adam LaRoche.

Why?: As this offseason wound down, the first base crowd became sparse, until only one remained, Mr. The Rock. Pena had gone to Chicago, Dunn and Konerko to the other side of Chicago, Lee to our Beltway neighbors, and eventually the Nats and LaRoche agreed to terms on a 2 year/$16 Million dollar contract. Now, don't get me wrong, our original analysis had LaRoche as the best fit for our ballclub; veteran presence, power, solid defense. In no way do I feel that LaRoche is simply a bridesmaid in this situation.

We are paying LaRoche extremely fair market value, considering he has produced more than $8 million/yr for 4 of the past 5 years, according to Fangraphs WAR -> Dollars conversion based on free agent value. And the one year he didn't hit $8 million, he was at $7.8.

What should you expect?: With LaRoche you should expect 150+ games, with a .270 AVG, 23-27 Homers, and 95-105 RBI.

His value is going to come from a lot more than just those middle of the order numbers. The Rock's defense has improved greatly over his career, which last year placed him as the 3rd best 1B in baseball, ahead of such names as Albert Pujols, Mark Texiera, Joey Votto, and Adrian Gonzalez. His glove is going to help our young infielders try to decrease the amount of errors, both mental and physical, because they no longer have to worry about the first baseman missing the ball.

Barring the insane signing (Pujols), the Nationals will have LaRoche, a proven leader, manning first base for the next two years. Enjoy watching Web Gems.

LaRoche Signs [UPDATE]

Earlier today the Nationals finally were able to ink Adam LaRoche to a 2 year/$15 million deal with a mutual option for a 3rd priced at $10 million ($1 million buyout), thus ending a long offseason of first base movement. (H/T @washingnats)

At the end of the 2010 season the Nationals had their plan and they were sticking to it, they wanted to get better defensively and more athletic. Dunn and Willingham were both sent away, one by free agency and the other by trade, and the emphasis was place on defense. Players were signed (Werth, Ankiel, etc.) that would make an impact in the field, as well as in the clubhouse and at the plate. But throughout the whole process, there was still a massive hole where there used to be a massive Donkey; first base.

We talked with Adam Dunn - he signed with the White Sox
We kicked the tires on Paul Konerko - he re-signed with the White Sox
We looked Carlos Pena - he signed with the Cubs
We inquired about Derrek Lee - he signed with The District's Canada (The Orioles)
We targeted Adam LaRoche - we got him

Starting on March 31st, 2011 we are going to have one of the best starting infield lineup in baseball, at least defensively. Last year LaRoche had a 4.8 UZR/150 (3rd highest among MLB first-basemen), Espinosa's was 13.3, Desmond's was a -9.4 (though his maturity should improve this year), and Zimmerman's was 17.8. I have already predicted in a previous post that Desmond will improve by 15 errors, add that to the rest of the infield and the Nats are going to have a vacuum of an infield; and this is without taking into account Werth, Morgan, and Bernadina in the OF.

The Nats are getting a player who has put up solid and predictable numbers in the past few years. Here are just a few stats to whet your appetite.

162 Game Averages:
.271 Batting Average
.339 On-Base Percentage
.488 Slugging Percentage
.827 OPS
114 OPS+
26 HR
40 2B
153 Hits
141 K
58 BB
93 RBI

Career Totals:
11.6 WAR (Fangraphs)
7.6 WAR (Baseball Reference)
.995% Fielding Percentage

The Nats may not have gotten their first choice, but I believe that they have a great player here. The stats show that he has the potential to be an average to above-average offensive player, while providing quality defense. I like the way the defense and offense is shaping up for 2011, all we have to do now is get some serviceable starting pitching...

And Then There Was One...

Friday afternoon the Baltimore Sun reported that Derrek Lee had signed a 1-year contract with the Orioles. That leaves the Nats down to one legitimate option at first base; Adam LaRoche. We posted a generic overview of several 1B options about a month ago, and here is what we wrote about LaRoche.

Choices, Choices, Choices 12.6.10
"LaRoche had probably the 2nd best year at the plate of his 7 year career in 2010. But even still it seems as though he is give you similar numbers each year you put him out there. He is going to hit .260-.280, hit 22-27 bombs, drive in 80-90 runs, while providing quality defense at 1st base. What Nats fans should be most aware of is his UZR/150 score, 4.8 for 2010. What that means is that he saved his team 4.8 more runs, per 150 games, than the average first baseman."

Now, the "choices" has become "choice". LaRoche is easily the best option out there so lets delve a bit more into his statistics.

162-game offensive averages - .271 AVG. .827 OPS. 26 HR. 93 RBI.

Past 3 years of WAR - 1.7 in 2008. 2.6 in 2009. 2.1 in 2010.

Past 3 years of UZR - -4.8 in 2008. 0.2 in 2009. 5.2 in 2010.

Past 3 years of Fielding % - .993 in 2008. .999 in 2009. .991 in 2010.

Owner of a lifetime WAR of 11.6 LaRoche provides steady defense and consistent offense at a position that values moonshots and generates strikeouts. It should be noted that in the top 10 most comparable players is former-MVP Justin Morneau and Adrian Gonzalez, who just went to Boston for 4 prospects (2 top prospects).

LaRoche is a well-above average defender whose only rough years have come in a Pirates uniform, not too surprising. If the Nats were to finally ink LaRoche we would have an athletic infield that consists of Zimmerman at 3B, Desmond at SS, Espinosa at 2B, and LaRoche at 1B. That would make life for our pitchers (especially the sinkerballers) much better. Gone would be the days of infielders too scared to make the throw in case the first baseman couldn't pick it.

Back in the original post we called for LaRoche over all others, that long-shot has now turned into a near sure-thing; its now only a matter of years and dollars. Our guess? The LaRoche camp wants 3 years/$21 million, Rizzo doesn't want to go to 3 years, but wants a 2 year/$15 million deal.

In addition to all the benefits included in signing LaRoche and creating a defense-first approach for our young infield/pitching staff, the Nats would also be getting a smart ballplayer. We wouldn't have to worry about missed signs, bad baserunning, or misplays in the field. Coming from a family of baseball players (Father and Brother both big leaguers), he would bring a veteran presence and high baseball IQ into the clubhouse, something that is desperately needed to lead our newcomers.

The Nats may not have gotten their first choice (Pena), and the fans certainly did not get their first choice (Dunn), but I believe that they still have the chance to make the right choice. It seems to be a matter of time until we see the tweets start pouring in, announcing a deal with LaRoche. But this is baseball, and anything can happen.