Monday, December 6, 2010

Choices, Choices, Choices.

So. Adam Dunn is gone. We know this, even if some of us haven't accepted it yet. And as much as we don't want to look forward to who our next dance partner is, it's time. So lets take a second to look at some of the options going forward. I know the names, you know the names, but do you know the stats (2009 in Red - 2010 in Blue).

Carlos Pena - The Frontrunner
AVG ------- .227 ---------- .196
OBP ------- .356 ---------- .325
OPS ------- .893 ---------- .732
HR -------- 39 ------------ 28
RBI ------- 100 ----------- 84
Runs ------ 91 ------------ 64
WAR ------ 2.8 ----------- 1.0
*UZR/150 - -6.1 -------- -3.7

For being touted as a superior defender, his UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating spread out over 150 games) this past season was WORSE than Adam Dunn's -3.3. Obviously he had a down year offensively in 2010, even though he did rack up 84 RBIs and 64 runs scored. What Pena brings to the table is his (supposed) glove and a high OBP (On-Base Percentage) and OPS (On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage).

Adam LaRoche - The Other Guy

AVG ------- .277 ---------- .261
OBP ------- .355 ---------- .320
OPS ------- .843 ---------- .788
HR -------- 25 ------------ 25
RBI ------- 83 ------------ 100
Runs ------ 78 ------------ 75
WAR ------ 2.6 ----------- 2.1
UZR/150 - 0.2 ----------- 4.8

LaRoche had probably the 2nd best year at the plate of his 7 year career in 2010. But even still it seems as though he is give you similar numbers each year you put him out there. He is going to hit .260-.280, hit 22-27 bombs, drive in 80-90 runs, while providing quality defense at 1st base. What Nats fans should be most aware of is his UZR/150 score, 4.8 for 2010. What that means is that he saved his team 4.8 more runs, per 150 games, than the average first baseman.

Paul Konerko - The Southsider

AVG ------ .277 ---------- .312
OBP ------ .353 ---------- .393
OPS ------ .842 ---------- .977
HR ------- 28 ------------ 39
RBI ------- 88 ----------- 111
Runs ------ 75 ----------- 89
WAR ------ 2.5 ---------- 4.2
UZR/150 - 2.1 ---------- -14.7

Konerko had a strong offensive year after suffering through 3 mediocre years in a row. Though while he as putting up Silver Slugger type numbers his defensive numbers went drastically down to well below average. It is widely assumed throughout baseball that Konerko will be joining the newly-signed Adam Dunn back in Chicago, to form a 1B/DH platoon that will cause a ruckus in the AL Central next year. Though if he were to go elsewhere, his new team could expect solid offensive numbers with lousy defense; therefore not necessarily an upgrade.


Michael (Don't call me Mike) Morse - The Insider

AVG ------- .250 ---------- .289
OBP ------- .291 ----------- .352
OPS ------- .772 ---------- .870
HR --------- 3 ------------- 15
RBI ------- 10 ------------- 41
Runs ------ 4 -------------- 36
WAR ------ .4 ------------- 1.4
UZR/150 - *17.3 --------- *13.4

Morse has some decent looking stats but what you need to be careful of is sample size. He played only 32 games in '09 (11 of them at 1B), and 98 games in '10 (19 of them at 1B). I believe that, in response to the Werth signing, Morse will be the new 1B. That being said, I would also not be at all surprised if Hammer now gets traded for some pitching, opening up LF for Morse. Rizzo said that "we're not done", this is all purely speculation at this point, but as of now I predict Morse will be at 1B.

In response to the Werth news, the Nats have some decisions to make. As of now we have a very Right-hand heavy lineup. If I were in charge I would trade Hammer away for pitching/prospects, sign Adam LaRoche for 1B, and run out an OF with Bernie in LF, Werth in CF, and Morse in RF. Or maybe this means that we are going to sign Pena so we can get a left-handed bat in there. So many choices! Hey, I heard that Nick Johnson was also available at 1B...

Thoughts? Leave them in the Comments or tweet me @CraigMac.

1 comment:

  1. Rizzo signing LaRoche wouldn't make sense(in his mind). It would have made more sense to sign Dunn, so I don't think he is looking at that. Pena is the one they want, and if they don't get him I see us having a revolving door at 1st base all season.

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