2012 Predictions

Its Opening Day. Feel free to say that out loud at frequent intervals with no provocation for a while. So that means predictions. Why? Because we just can't help ourselves.

Sean's Predictions:

Wins: 90 - A first half around .500 will give way to a torrid August and September and lead the Nats into a wild card spot.

Offensive MVP - Ryan Zimmerman. He plays over 150 games and hits close to .300 with over 30 HRs and over 100 RBI.

Pitching MVP - Jordan Zimmerman. Strassy, Gio and even Ejax may have gaudier stats, but Jzimm will make close to 35 starts and have a quality start % in the 70s.

Biggest Offensive Surprise - Ian Desmond. He will hit 20 HRs and score over 100 runs.

Biggest Pitching Surprise - Edwin Jackson. Minimize his starts at Citizen's Bank and he will be golden.

Biggest Offensive Disappointment - Hate to say this, but Michael Morse. He will fall alittle further back to earth. But a healthy Zim, LaRoche and a bounce back year for Werth will help the offense along.

Biggest Pitching Disappointment - Chien Ming Wang. I firmly believe he is made of candy-glass and will never throw any substantial innings again.

Best Moment - I want to say when the Nats clinch a wild card spot. But really it will be the first time Wilson Ramos comes to bat in the home opener. I will not forget the shock and unease I felt during those days in winter.

Nationals All-Stars - Ryan Zimmerman, Steven Strasburg, Drew Storen

Teddy Wins - 0

Player Games lost to the DL - Lots

Prop-Bets - Davey Johnson ejections 2, Zim walkoffs 1, Ian Desmond errors 17, Jayson Werth beard alignments 7, Strassy's last start August 24

Craig's Predictions:

Wins - 86 - I think that injuries are going to be a huge concern throughout the year and that the offense struggles to catch up to the pitching staff.

Offensive MVP - Ryan Zimmerman. It's going to be a 90+ RBI season with a .300 average without a lot of support in the lineup.

Pitching MVP - Gio Gonzalez. He is going to win 15 games and completely dominate the NL.

Biggest Offensive Surprise - Adam LaRoche. He will bounce back from his injury filled 2011 and hit 20 bombs and drive in 70+ runs.

Biggest Pitching Surprise - Craig Stammen. He will have the best ERA and WHIP on the team.

Biggest Offensive Disappointment - Michael Morse. There is simply no way that he will be able to produce like he did last year.

Biggest Pitching Disappointment - Tyler Clippard. He will deal with some injuries due to over-use in the past two seasons, struggling whenever healthy.

Best Moment - Without a doubt Wilson Ramos. This is now Ramos playing with House Money and it will be fantastic to watch him soak in everything for the rest of his career.

Nationals All-Stars - Ryan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez.

Teddy Wins - 0

Player games lost to the DL - Hundreds.

Prop Bets - Davey Johnson Ejections 3, Zimmerman Walk-offs 1, Ian Desmond Errors 21, Werth Beard Alignments 3, Strassy's Last Start August 11, Harper's 1st game June 17

Well, we are on the record. How about you join us and post your predictions in the comments section!

2012 Pitching Predictions

The Nationals pitching staff is young and exciting. 2012 could be a very special year for them, but most importantly, it is not a make-or-break year. The addition of Gio Gonzalez makes the staff formidable and also gives them balance, assuming Lannan is in the 4th or 5th spot. The Addition of Brad Lidge in the pen gives the Nats 3 guys who can dominate batters in the late innings, lefties or righties. Who will stand out statistically? To the predictions!

Sean's Win Leader: Jordan Zimmermann - 16. Gio will stay right with him until the end and Strasburg will win more than 10, but won't see enough starts get close to 20. Jordan keeps an even keel and will be THE stopper and have a Quality Start percentage near the top of the league.

Sean's Strikeout Champion: Gio Gonzalez - 200. Stephen Strasburg and Tyler Clippard will both post K/9 rates above 10.0, but Strasburg is on an innings limit and Clip is pitching out of the pen. Gio will also get a boost moving to the NL and will feast on the likes of Ryan Howard and Jason Heyward.

Sean's ERA Leader: Stephen Strasburg - 2.76. He doesn't walk anyone. He strikes out everyone. and he is still learning how to really pitch. Scary.

Craig's Win Leader: Gio Gonzalez - 16. I was all set to agree with Sean on his Zimmermann pick, and I do agree that this is going to come down to the wire. But, looking at the numbers from the previous season, JZimm received the 10th worst run support in all of Major League Baseball. Whereas, Gio Gonzalez won 16 games with an A's team that had the 3rd worst Run Support in the AL. I think that JZimm will continue to be bitten by the run support bug, while Gio Gonzalez will feast on NL hitters and be given some extra run support.

Craig's Strikeout Champion: Gio Gonzalez - 200. I am going to agree 100% with Sean here. Weird. He has shown that he is around an 8.5 K/9 for his career while pitching right around 200 IP a season. I think with the move to the NL he will be able to hit that 9.0 K/9 mark, which averages right out to 200.

Craig's ERA Leader: Drew Storen - 2.20. I think that Storen is going to have an easier go of things this year. If you remember back to last year, Storen started the year as a regular member of the 'pen as Jim Riggleman refused to name a closer (correct me if I am wrong, I don't think he ever actually named Storen the closer...), so he didn't get that adrenaline going til a few weeks into the season*. Even still, he posted a 2.75 ERA and I think that with a year as closer under his belt he will really turn it on. Don't forget, he is just 24 years old.

*Don't forget that Storen had an absolutely dreadful Spring Training*

Those are our picks, CapBallers. What are yours?

2012 Offensive Predictions

Asian people will eat a lot of rice. Oh wait, not that kind of offensive prediction...

We're talking hitting. The Nats offense was carried by Michael Morse in the wake of injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche and a sub-par season for Jayson Werth. In 2012, Beastmode should be able to share more of the load with a healthy Zimmerman and LaRoche, a hopefully resurgent Werth and at some point, Bryce Harper. So, who will lead the Nats at the plate? Will a surprise player breakout and earn MVP consideration, a la Mike Morse? To the predictions!

Sean's Batting Average Champion: Ryan Zimmerman - .308. With several other offensive weapons on the team, the load on Ryan to produce runs will be lighter, allowing him to go the other way more often and even bunt occasionally (he is a very talent bunter, though it is unlikely Davey Johnson will allow that).

Sean's Home Run Champion: Mike Morse - 40. Beast Mode will pick up right where he left off. Given an entire season of ABs he will not disappoint. Werth, Zimmerman and Harper will all break 20 and make get close to 30.

Sean's RBI Champion: Mike Morse - 102. Hard to guess anyone but Mike. He will be hitting with Zimmerman and hopefully Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa on base quite a bit and will make the most of his opportunities. Zim will get his, but real offensive success will be incumbent upon Werth and LaRoche contributing a serious number of RBIs.

Craig's Batting Average Champion: Ryan Zimmerman - .302. I based this entirely off of 2nd half splits from last year. Once healthy, he became the offensive force that he was back in 2009 and 2010. My hope is that Zim flies high in 2012 after receiving a contract extension during Spring Training that makes him a National for life *Spoiler Alert*.

Craig's HR Champion: Michael Morse - 30. I don't believe that Morse is going to put up 40 home runs next year, I think 30 is a more reasonable goal. You have to figure that he is going to play against the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins' rotations a total of 54 times next year - it's tough to put up that many bombs in this division. I think that 30 is a nice round number that he can achieve.

Craig's RBI Champion: Michael Morse - 88. I think that the team is going to spread the love around a lot more in 2012. The Nationals scored 624 runs in 2011 and 95 of them were knocked in by Morse - a whopping 15.2% of the team's runs. I don't think that the onus will be solely on Morse to knock in runs, and that others will take the opportunity to drive in runs before he gets to the plate. With a healthy LaRoche and Zimmerman, I think that Morse still leads the team but it is going to be close.

Well, CapBallers, we agree on the players but not quite the numbers. What do you think?

First of Many 2012 Previews

It's almost February and, being obsessive baseball fans, we feel that it's time to lay out our visions for the 2012 Nationals season. Today we will go over our thoughts on the team's Win/Loss record and the keys to the season. Later in the week we will take a look at individual players and who might lead the team in several statistical categories. Let the prediction and prognostication begin!

Sean's W-L prediction: 91-71

An 11 win improvement seems like a large jump. But take a look at where the Nationals' pitching staff will be. If you were to ask any Major League GM to rank pitching staffs, from ace to last man out of the pen, on talent, youth, and contract friendliness, the Nationals would be on top, and I don't think its close. A full year of Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gio, plus an improved pen with talented and experienced reserves at Syracuse, may very well allow for that 11 win jump on its own.

But the offense will also be better. Ryan Zimmerman is healthy, Mike Morse is power-hungry, Jayson Werth is eager to shove success in the face of doubters, and the rest of the young Nats will be another year older, and smarter. A few questions remain, most notably the make-up of the outfield. I see a platoon of Mike Cameron and Roger Bernadina (or Rick Ankiel) until Mike Rizzo is ready to allow Bryce Harper to play in the majors. While a long term solution would be ideal, I do not see the Nats finding that solution (unless it is Bryce Harper) this year. A 2 or 3 month platoon would not sink the season and may, in the long run, add value to the Nationals roster if Cameron, Bernie or Ankiel breakout. Other issues to watch: how Adam LaRoche and Wilson Ramos recover, how Mike Morse deals with left-field, and how quickly Strassy reaches his IP limit.

Sean's Key to 2012: Ian Desmond. He is poised to make a big leap this year and realize his potential. If he does that, the Nationals will be a special team and could compete for the Division and easily win one of the two wild card spots.

Craig's W-L prediction: 87-75

This season is going to be one of the most interesting in recent memory, not just for the Nationals but all throughout MLB. The Marlins made a splash for the first time in their existance, we had once-in-a-generation players bolt their homes for money, we had managers and GMs being traded, and there may be 10 playoff teams for the first time ever - there was no projecting these kinds of things and because of that I think that the book is going completely out the window for 2012. And that is why my prediction is one of tempered optimism.

The Nationals made a fantastic move to acquire a young left-handed stud from Oakland but they have done little else aside from a few minor moves - Cameron, DeRosa, Perry, and Lidge. No doubt that a 160IP season of Strasburg and the appearance of Harper at some point will help the team, but I honestly don't know how much. Assuming the Nats have a standard season with normal injuries and average regression/progression, than I would expect the team to increase their win total by about 7 wins.

Craig's Key to 2012: Adam LaRoche. His career slash-line leading up to 2011 was .271/.339/.488, and last year he had a .172/.288/.258... That's right, he slugged .258. Or, .007 BELOW Brian Bixler. Also known as the lowest of all MLB 1st basemen with at least 175 ABs.

Now, I know that LaRoche was trying to play through a torn labrum, but it still goes to stand that at the biggest power position in the NL we had the absolute worst offensive production. If he is still feeling ill effects at the dish then the Nats will once again have a hard time trying to replace that power again.

Your turn, CapBallers. What are your W-L predictions for 2012? The Comment's section awaits.

Pre-Season Prediction Mania pt. 2

Earlier this year we put our money where our mouth was. We were stupid enough to make some predictions on the season, and as you see below - we made complete fools of ourselves (mostly). Here are our original votes for the IBWA-DC Pre-Season Poll - our own bold prediction crow-eating will occur later. After these wounds heal.

Enjoy our suffering below - Included is what we wrote at the time, followed by what actually happened.

7) Who will pitch more innings for the Nats this season: Chien-Ming Wang, Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler?
What we wrote: Yunesky Maya - Maya is coming off an offseason where he was named Dominican Winter League Player of the Year and has had a good spring start so far. But Detwiler has been incredible so far this spring, so he also has a pretty good shot. We went with Maya on pure gut, plus we hadn't seen Detwiler at all this spring yet. Seriously, he's been awesome.

What actually happened: Ross Detwiler barely edged out Chien-Ming Wang for the title on this one by at total of 66.0 to 62.1 IP- with our pick, Maya, coming in dead last with 32.2.

8) Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season: Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston, Alberto Gonzalez?
What we wrote: Rick Ankiel - Hairston and Gonzo will be around and will probably get some ABs. But with Nyjer Morgan's inability to... you know... play baseball, he might get some real action in center field.

What actually happened: Boom! We got one! Rick Ankiel had 380 ABs for the Nats this year to Jerry Hairston's 213, as Hairston got traded to the Brew Crew at the deadline. The AG is ineligible for this award because he was traded to the Padres before the season even began!

9) Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season: Ivan Rodriguez, Jesus Flores, Wilson Ramos?
What we wrote: Wilson Ramos - Ramos has been incredible behind the plate this spring, Flores has yet to get a hit, and Rodriguez isn't getting any younger. Flores will most likely end up behind the plate in AAA, at least to start the year, so Ramos it is.

What actually happened: Boom! Two in a row! This one was kind of a no-brainer, as the Nats were looking to get younger up the middle. Ramos led all comers with 389 ABs to Pudge and Flores' 124 and 86, respectively.

10) How many all-stars will the Nats have? Who?
What we wrote: 1; Ryan Zimmerman - We're convinced Zimm won't get snubbed again in 2011 like he did in 2010, but we're not convinced that anyone else on the team has the potential to be an All-Star this season. The Nats will get their mandatory one.

What actually happened: Well, we were half right? Zimmerman was displaced for most of the first-half of the season with an Oblique injury, as Tyler Clippard paved the way for Middle Relievers everywhere as he notched the W for the NL in the Mid-Summer Classic. Following in the footsteps of great Nats All-Star Relievers before him (See: Matt Capps in 2010).

11) Total wins and what place in the division?
What we wrote: 76; 4th place in NL East - The Nats won't hit .500, but they'll get closer than last year, and they won't be nearly as bad as the team we predict to be the cellar dwellers in the NL East: the Mets. They're basically broke, have old, washed up talent, oh... and they're really broke.

What actually happened: I have never been so happy to be wrong. The Nats showed some serious chutzpah in the 2nd half, overcoming a quitting manager and a cavalcade of different starting pitchers to finish the season at 80-81 - just one game under .500.

12) Single most important thing for the Nats this season?
What we wrote: Young player development - There's little to no chance that the 2011 Nats end up bound for the post-season. But one thing they need to focus on is developing their staggering amount of young talent. In addition to the development, the entire baseball world, NatsTown included, will be focused on Stephen Strasburg's recovery from Tommy John surgery. If Strasburg completes his recovery and the minor leaguers can show some real progress, we can have a different story in 2012 and beyond.

What actually happened: Our young players developed - your 1st and 3rd Batting WAR leaders were Espinosa and Ramos. Your best pitcher, by WAR and pretty much everything else, was Jordan Zimmermann (3.4 WAR) - highest on the Nats since 2005. And, ohbytheway, Stephen Strasburg, in recovery from Tommy John, racked up a 1.1 WAR in just 5 starts; sickness.

Overall, we didn't do too bad on our predictions. It was fun to take a look back and, if anything, it has made us more excited about next season.

Post any predictions you may have made in the comments!

Pre-Season Prediction Mania pt. 1

Earlier this year we put our money where our mouth was. We were stupid enough to make some predictions on the season, and as you see below - we made complete fools of ourselves (mostly). Here are our original votes for the IBWA-DC Pre-Season Poll - our own bold prediction crow-eating will occur later. After these wounds heal.

Enjoy our suffering below - Included is what we wrote at the time, followed by what actually happened.

1) Who will lead the Nats in home runs in 2011?
What we wrote: Ryan Zimmerman - With the loss of Adam Dunn, this isn't the boldest pick in the world, but it could also be Werth and LaRoche. We're going with the franchise here.

What actually happened: Zimmerman spent a two-month chunk of the season hurt, while Michael Morse went full on Beast Mode, hitting 31 Bombs and leading the team.

2) Who will lead the Nats in RBI?
What we wrote: Jayson Werth - Zimmerman could be the guy here, too, but we sent this in before Riggleman basically said Ryan Zimmerman would be the clean up hitter quite a bit.

What actually happened: The same beast, Morse, destroyed all comers by racking up 95 RBIs - a full 29 more than the 2nd place finisher.

3) Who will lead the Nats in stolen bases?
What we wrote: Danny Espinosa - We're not convinced Nyjer's even going to make the team in 2011, let alone be a starter. After him, the guy with legs that we can bet on is good old Espi. Hopefully he gets on base enough to make us right.

What actually happened: Espinosa decided to steal a bit less than we would've hoped and new lead-off hitter, Ian Desmond led the team with 25.

4) Who will lead the staff in wins?
What we wrote: John Lannan - Yea, that's right: John Lannan people. Again, we sent this in over 2 weeks ago. Now, with Ross Detwiler's and Yunesky Maya's success in the spring, plus the near locks that are Livo and Marquis, we're not convinced Lannan will be with the Nats on Opening Day. None the less, we think that, should Lannan make it into the rotation, he has the potential to be the wins leader if looks at all like he did to end 2010.

What actually happened: BOOM! Nailed it!!! 10 wins to lead the staff!!

5) Who will lead the staff in saves?
What we wrote: Sean Burnett - We think there's a chance that Drew Storen doesn't make the Opening Day roster this year. He has options in his contract, he's been lit up this spring, and getting a little extra time in the minors couldn't hurt. That leaves Burnett and Clippard to share the closers duties this season, and we think Burnett gets the advantage.

What actually happened: Wow. We were really off base on this. Storen's Spring Training debacle turned out to be just a power pitcher working up to speed. Despite the fact that Riggleman never actually named Storen as the teams closer, he quickly ascended to that post - never to relinquish it. Sean Burnett did, however, nab 4 saves - so we were only 39 saves off...

6) Which starter will lead the team in starts?
What we wrote: Livan Hernandez - This is easy for us. Livan is the workhorse of the rotation. Then, with Lannan not making it through all of last year in the majors, Marquis coming off injury, JZimm not 2 years from Tommy John surgery, and a host of other guys that are bound to get a chance in the rotation this season, Livan is probably the guy.

What actually happened: Livo actually finished a close second with 29 starts. John Lannan became the new workhorse of the staff, starting 33 games this year.

Tune in tomorrow for Part 2! Same bat time, same bat channel.

Opening Day - Bold Predictions Edition

Opening Day is tomorrow.

Let that sink in. Opening Day is tomorrow.

You ok? Good, lets press on. We are in the business of ridiculousness from time to time, and right now is no exception. It's prediction time. Time for us to embarrass ourselves over and over for the next 8 months. So, with all that out of the way. We are both going to make bold predictions for every player in the starting lineup and rotation.

Let's do it. Lineup first.

Ian Desmond - 6
- Joe - Will have an OBP of over .350.
- Mac - Will lower his Error total by 15, to a meager 19.

Jayson Werth - 9
- Joe - Will lead the Nats in stolen bases.
- Mac - Will hit 50 Doubles.

Ryan Zimmerman - 5
- Joe - Will have the best batting average in the NL.
- Mac - Will hit 35 HR and have 110 RBI.

Adam LaRoche - 3
- Joe - Will miss a large chunk of the season due to injury.
- Mac - Will have the best defensive metrics for NL first-baseman, but won't win the Gold Glove.

Michael Morse - 7
- Joe - Will make the All-Star Game as an alternate
- Mac - Will hit 30 HR.

Rick Ankiel - 8
- Joe - Mac took mine, so I'll go with he'll throw out a runner at home on the fly from the warning track.
- Mac - Will pitch for the Nats this year.

Danny Espinosa - 4
- Joe - Will win the NL Rookie of the Year.
- Mac - Will be #2 in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, to Freddie Freeman.

Ivan Rodriguez - 2
- Joe - Will miss much of the last 2 months hurt, and will retire at the end of the season.
- Mac - Will be traded by the end of May.

Rotation

Livan Hernandez
- Joe - Mac also took mine here, so I'll say a story will break that confirms that Livan is, in fact, 41 years old.
- Mac - Will go on the DL for the first time in his career.

John Lannan
- Joe - Will lead the Nats in wins in 2011.
- Mac - Will have a sub-3.50 ERA.

Jordan Zimmermann
- Joe - Will have the worst winning percentage of all Nats starters.
- Mac - Will throw a no-hitter.

Jason Marquis
- Joe - Will be the Nats most reliable starter, averaging 6.2 IP/game and will sign a new contract extension in August.
- Mac - Will be traded to a contender before the trade deadline.

Tom Gorzelanny
- Joe - Will have the 2nd best season of his career: 190 IP; 3.90 ERA; 10+ wins
- Mac - Will have a +5.00 ERA.

Give us some bold predictions in the comments!

Nats Pre-Season Predictions: DC-IBWA

We're excited to be part of the Internet Baseball Writers Association: DC Chapter's pre-season predictions for 2011. If you click on the link above, you can see the results from voting from baseball bloggers and writers across DC. Below is our predictions. Some were easy, some were hard, some we went with an off-the-wall pick. Here's our picks with some justifications. As always, comments are welcome.

1) Who will lead the Nats in home runs in 2011?

Ryan Zimmerman - With the loss of Adam Dunn, this isn't the boldest pick in the world, but it could also be Werth and LaRoche. We're going with the franchise here.

2) Who will lead the Nats in RBI?

Jayson Werth - Zimmerman could be the guy here, too, but we sent this in before Riggleman basically said Ryan Zimmerman would be the clean up hitter quite a bit.

3) Who will lead the Nats in stolen bases?

Danny Espinosa - We're not convinced Nyjer's even going to make the team in 2011, let alone be a starter. After him, the guy with legs that we can bet on is good old Espi. Hopefully he gets on base enough to make us right.

4) Who will lead the staff in wins?

John Lannan - Yea, that's right: John Lannan people. Again, we sent this in over 2 weeks ago. Now, with Ross Detwiler's and Yunesky Maya's success in the spring, plus the near locks that are Livo and Marquis, we're not convinced Lannan will be with the Nats on Opening Day. None the less, we think that, should Lannan make it into the rotation, he has the potential to be the wins leader if looks at all like he did to end 2010.

5) Who will lead the staff in saves?

Sean Burnett - We think there's a chance that Drew Storen doesn't make the Opening Day roster this year. He has options in his contract, he's been lit up this spring, and getting a little extra time in the minors couldn't hurt. That leaves Burnett and Clippard to share the closers duties this season, and we think Burnett gets the advantage.

6) Which starter will lead the team in starts?

Livan Hernandez - This is easy for us. Livan is the workhorse of the rotation. Then, with Lannan not making it through all of last year in the majors, Marquis coming off injury, JZimm not 2 years from Tommy John surgery, and a host of other guys that are bound to get a chance in the rotation this season, Livan is probably the guy.

7) Who will pitch more innings for the Nats this season: Chien-Ming Wang, Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler?

Yunesky Maya - Maya is coming off an offseason where he was named Dominican Winter League Player of the Year and has had a good spring start so far. But Detwiler has been incredible so far this spring, so he also has a pretty good shot. We went with Maya on pure gut, plus we hadn't seen Detwiler at all this spring yet. Seriously, he's been awesome.

8) Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season: Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston, Alberto Gonzalez?

Rick Ankiel - Hairston and Gonzo will be around and will probably get some ABs. But with Nyjer Morgan's inability to... you know... play baseball, he might get some real action in center field.

9) Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season: Ivan Rodriguez, Jesus Flores, Wilson Ramos?

Wilson Ramos - Ramos has been incredible behind the plate this spring, Flores has yet to get a hit, and Rodriguez isn't getting any younger. Flores will most likely end up behind the plate in AAA, at least to start the year, so Ramos it is.

10) How many all-stars will the Nats have? Who?

1; Ryan Zimmerman - We're convinced Zimm won't get snubbed again in 2011 like he did in 2010, but we're not convinced that anyone else on the team has the potential to be an All-Star this season. The Nats will get their mandatory one.

11) Total wins and what place in the division?

76; 4th place in NL East - The Nats won't hit .500, but they'll get closer than last year, and they won't be nearly as bad as the team we predict to be the cellar dwellers in the NL East: the Mets. They're basically broke, have old, washed up talent, oh... and they're really broke.

12) Single most important thing for the Nats this season?

Young player development - There's little to no chance that the 2011 Nats end up bound for the post-season. But one thing they need to focus on is developing their staggering amount of young talent. In addition to the development, the entire baseball world, NatsTown included, will be focused on Stephen Strasburg's recovery from Tommy John surgery. If Strasburg completes his recovery and the minor leaguers can show some real progress, we can have a different story in 2012 and beyond.