Fun With Projections

I spend a lot of free time at FanGraphs sorting through the absolute preposterous amount of information available. Over the past few weeks we have begun seeing the 2012 Projections System's being released - basically educated guessed based on ridiculously complicated formulas. For a brief introduction to the types of systems out there, check out this primer from FanGraphs.

A few weeks ago I remembered reading a comparison of the different projections from 2011, which retroactively judged the accuracy of each system for both hitters and pitchers based on their pre-season projection and their actual stats - you can find that article here. I decided to take the winning projection systems from 2011 (ZiPS for hitters and Steamer for pitchers) to see what they think about the Nationals starting lineup for 2012. You know, for fun.

Here are the results - based on my projected opening day lineup of course.

Ian Desmond - SS
- 2011 Stats: .253/.298/.358. 8 HR. 49 RBI. 25 SB.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .256/.304/.378. 10 HR. 57 RBI. 19 SB.

Jayson Werth - RF
- 2011 Stats: .232/.330/.389. 20 HR. 58 RBI. 24.7% K%.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .245/.342/.418. 20 HR. 62 RBI. 23.7% K%.

Ryan Zimmerman - 3B
- 2011 Stats: .289/.355/.443. 12 HR. 49 RBI. 101 Games Played.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .283/.354/.476. 22 HR. 78 RBI. 134 Games Played.

Adam LaRoche - 1B
- 2011 Stats: .172/.288/.258. 3 HR. 15 RBI. 43 Games Played.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .236/.313/.415. 14 HR. 58 RBI. 99 Games Played.

Michael Morse - LF
- 2011 Stats: .303/.360/.550. 31 HR. 95 RBI. .344 BABIP.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .273/.331/.475. 22 HR. 80 RBI. .310 BABIP.

Rick Ankiel - CF
- 2011 Stats: .239/.296/.363. 9 HR. 37 RBI.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .231/.293/.386. 11 HR. 36 RBI.

Danny Espinosa - 2B
- 2011 Stats: .236/.323/.414. 21 HR. 66 RBI. 25.2% K%.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .229/.309/.400. 20 HR. 71 RBI. 26.6% K%.

Wilson Ramos - C
- 2011 Stats: .267/.334/.445. 15 HR. 52 RBI.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .266/.338/.453. 17 HR. 55 RBI.

For Fun - Bryce Harper
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .238/.317/.405. 17 HR. 60 RBI. 132 Games.

As you can clearly see, several of the players have closely related 2011 stats and projections - whereas the exact players that you would expect to have drastically different numbers (LaRoche, Zimmerman, and Morse) have just that.

Let's check out pitchers now!

Stephen Strasburg
- 2011 Stats: 5 Games Started. 1-1 Record. 1.50 ERA. 1.28 FIP. 0.71 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 27 Games Started. 11-7 Record. 2.79 ERA. 2.51 FIP. 1.13 WHIP.

Gio Gonzalez
- 2011 Stats: 32 Games Started. 16-12 Record. 3.12 ERA. 3.64 FIP. 1.32 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 30 Games Started. 11-10 Record. 3.67 ERA. 3.46 FIP. 1.35 WHIP.

Jordan Zimmermann
- 2011 Stats: 26 Games Started. 8-11 Record. 3.18 ERA. 3.16 FIP. 1.15 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 31 Games Started. 11-11 Record. 3.77 ERA. 3.63 FIP. 1.26 WHIP.

Edwin Jackson
- 2011 Stats: 31 Games Started. 12-9 Record. 3.79 ERA. 3.55 FIP. 1.44 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 31 Games Started. 11-11 Record. 3.83 ER. 3.59 FIP. 1.30 WHIP.

Chien-Ming Wang
- 2011 Stats: 11 Games Started. 4-3 Record. 4.04 ERA. 4.57 FIP. 1.28 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 23 Games Started. 7-9 Record. 4.49 ERA. 3.99 FIP. 1.40 WHIP.

Whew!

That was a whole lot of numbers. Projections being as they are, I found it most interesting that each of the Nats first 4 pitchers are pegged for 11-win seasons. Some other tidbits that struck my eye...
- Strasburg's projected ERA would place him in the Top 10 of NL Starting Pitchers.
- I'm surprised a bit that Gonzalez's numbers took that big of a hit - I know he is coming over from a pitchers park but he is also switching from the AL to the NL.
- Chien-Ming Wang is a complete wild card.
- 4 out of 5 pitchers projected for a sub-4 ERA? I'll take it.

So there you have it. Fun with Projections.

Which of these projections do you think are the most/least accurate? What are some of your projections? The Comments await!