Monday, May 9, 2011

Harper-Watch

One of my favorite movies of all time stars a fictional 70s newscaster in a certain southern California city. In the movie, all of the action focuses around the birth of a brand new, baby Panda at the city zoo. Worlds crash down, careers are challenged, and epic collapses take place. And in the end, Lin-Wong finally has its baby panda, the world turns back right-side-up and all becomes well.

While pondering this, I realized that this is exactly where the Nationals stand in their history. The fans are waiting, very patiently mind you, for the birth of a legitimate franchise after getting a delicious taste of it last year for 12 glorious starts. Right now hi-jinx are ensuing everyday, with nosebleeds and torn muscles and goofy giant presidents, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel; our very own panda watch.

That's right. Bryce Harper is a San Diego-on Panda.

You saw the stories around three weeks ago. The future right-fielder was over-matched by the older pitchers, struggling to hit the breaking balls, and seeming to be lost at Low-A Hagerstown. Then he went to the eye doctor, got some contacts, and started a tear. On April 18th, Harper was hitting just .231. Now, just 3 weeks and 19 games later, Harper is hitting .371. Not bad for 3 weeks work.

His best game so far of his streak was without a doubt April 22nd, where the Phenom went 3 for 3 with a single, double, homer, and 2 walks - knocking in 6 runs in the process.

During said streak Harper has only gone one game without a hit, and even in that game (back on the 25th) he still walked.

2011 Stats thus far:
28 Games. .371 AVG. 11 2B. 7 HR. 24 RBI. 16 BB. 22 K. 5 SB. 2 CS. 1.161 OPS (!).

With Harper tearing up the South Atlantic League look for him to get a promotion to High-A Potomac around June 1st, maybe just 1 year before we see him in a curly W. But not before Capitol Baseball gets an up-close look at him...

That's right, folks. I'll be in attendance Tuesday morning to see the Panda... err, Phenom in action; where 60% of the time, he works every time.

You stay classy, CapBallers.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Can Riggs Take Nats to Next Level?

When Jim Riggleman took over managerial duties for the Nats in 2009 after now-Indians Manager Manny Acta was fired, there wasn't a whole lot to be hopeful about, besides Ryan Zimmerman's Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards at 3rd base. Only 3 of the 10 listed infielders from 2009 remain on the 2011 roster (Zimmerman, Desmond, Morse); only 6 of the 30 pitchers that appeared on the Nats roster that year have appeared on the 25-man roster this season. Most have long been dismissed from the organization entirely.

The Nats were in bad shape and had posted the 2nd-worst winning percentage in the franchise's history: the 1969 Montreal Expos were worse. Last season, the Nats and Riggleman were able to right the ship a bit more. They flirted with .500 through most of May, and finished the season 10-wins better than the disastrous 2009 season; the team still failed to break even 70 wins for the 3rd consecutive season.

There seems to be a reverberating frustration across NatsTown, even earlier than in past years. The biggest question mark for the Nats coming in to 2011 was it's starting pitching, which has been good enough to get them the 11th best ERA in baseball. Everything else, though, has been fairly disappointing. The bulllpen has been good, but not great, and nothing compared with last season. The offense has essentially not existed. The entire team is hitting for a .226 batting average, good for 29th in baseball.

So all this being said, can Jim Riggleman take the Nats to the next phase: winning?

Unfortunately, history says no. Managers across baseball, including Manager of the defending World Champion Giants Bruce Bochy, consider Jim Riggleman to be a brilliant managerial mind, and he shows signs of that from time to time. But records don't lie, and Riggleman's record as a major league manager is a dismal 638-803. In his 11 years of managing (not including this season), he's finished above .500 just twice, and one was in 1995 with a shortened season due to the 1994 labor strike. He did take the Cubs to the playoffs in 1998, but got swept in the NLDS.

He'll still be the manager that makes infuriating double switches in weird situations and leaves starting pitchers in for too long at times. He still, as the MASN commercials say, believes in the players and not the numbers.

However, Riggleman is a player's coach and is probably the right guy to help pull a team out of the gutter. He seems to have unwaivering support of his players in a good clubhouse. While I can't imagine that Riggleman will be the Nats' manager when the team finally reaches the playoffs for the first time, he will be seen as an important figure in the building of young talent in the organization.

According to his contract, Riggleman has a contract-option for 2012. Do you see him filling the managerial role next season? If so, do you think it's a good idea? Sound off in the comments.

Today in Nats History

Today is May 5th, 2009 and two years ago the Nats won one of the most interesting games in their history... technically...

Nats fans remember this game for many reasons, not the least of which being the Nats won a high scoring, extra inning home game against the Houston Astros. What most people remember is how the game went down. Let's go to the videotape!

The Nationals, backed by a crowd at Nationals Park, took a 10-9 lead into the 9th inning and Garrett Mock came in for the save(!). Mock did his best Garrett Mock impression and blew the save, sending the game to extra innings with the score tied at 10.

The 10th inning went by without a hitch, and Joel Hanrahan threw a typical Hanrahan top of the 11th (3 hits, walk, no runs). It was time for the Nats to win an extra innings ballgame in front of the 19,000+ fans at Nationals park. They were well on their way to the win when Elijah Dukes walked after an Austin Kearns strikeout (some things never change).

Then the rains came...

The Umpires made the decision to postpone the game - but since the Astros weren't coming back to Nats Park that season, the game would have to be finished at Enron Field.. Uhh, Minute Maid Park.

Flash Forward to July 9th in Houston. The game was to be resumed before their next series began, with the Nationals finishing a home game while wearing their Road unis...

7 minutes later the Nats had an 11-10 extra inning home victory... in Houston - the run scored by a player that had a hit for the Pirates the same day (May 5th). Time to bullet point some of the more fun stats from that day.

- Elijah Dukes walked on May 5th in the 11th, but when the game resumed on July 9th he was in the minor leagues.

- Nyjer Morgan, acquired by the Nats just a week earlier, scored the winning run for the Nats on May 5th when he was playing for the Pirates.

- The winning pitcher for the Nats was Joel Hanrahan, who won the game despite playing for a different team (Pirates) when the game was finally won. He was taking a nap when he won the game.

- If I recall correctly, between the rain suspension and the resumption the Nats celebrated their 100th Home Game at Nats Park. At the time they didn't know what the highest scoring game in park history was, because it wasn't yet finished.

- Ryan Zimmerman was in the middle of his 30-game hit streak and, after having gotten a hit earlier in the game, the game didn't "officially" count until it was completed in July.

- The Nats used 8 players on May 5th that weren't with the team on July 9th - and no, I'm not going to figure out which ones.

- The Astros became the first team in over 30 years to lose a walk-off in their home ball-park.

- Hanrahan was discussing how he was going to win the Nats game with current-National, then-Pirate Adam LaRoche in July.

Here is what a few writers had to say about it:
- Bill Ladson
- Chico Harlan (Remember him?)
- Jayson Stark
- AP

So, when watching the Nats take on Roy Halladay tonight, take a drink to celebrate all of baseball's little quirks.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Time for Eckstein to Go?

Back in 2007, the Nats decided to part ways with hitting coach Lenny Harris. In their search for a replacement, they looked for a "baseball guy", someone who would do more than just play cards with the players. At the top of their list was Rick Eckstein, brother of "gritty" journeyman David Eckstein. A sophisticated baseball mind that had a very analytical approach to hitting, based on extensive use of video and cage work. Four years after his initial hire, how has he done so far?

In 2011, the Nats have somehow scraped their way to an 14-14 record so far on this season despite being near the bottom of baseball in most offensive categories. Watching this year's club, I became curious as to how the Nats have performed since Eckstein's arrival in DC. Join me in the time machine...

2008 - Record 59-102
MLB Averages - .264 AVG - .333 OBP - .749 OPS - 163 HR - 718 RBI
Nats Averages and MLB Ranks:
AVG - .251 (27th)
OBP - .323 (23rd)
OPS - .696 (29th)
HR - 117 (28th)
RBI - 608 (29th)

2009 - Record 59-103
MLB Averages - .262 AVG - .333 OBP - .751 OPS - 168 HR - 712 RBI
Nats Averages and MLB Ranks:
AVG - .258 (24th)
OBP - .337 (12th)
OPS - .743 (18th)
HR - 156 (21st)
RBI - 685 (21st)

2010 - Record 69-93
MLB Averages - .257 AVG - .325 OBP - .728 OPS - 154 HR - 676 RBI
Nats Averages and MLB Ranks:
AVG - .250 (21st)
OBP - .318 (22nd)
OPS - .708 (20th)
HR - 149 (17th)
RBI - 634 (21st)

2011 - Record 14-14
MLB Averages - .250 AVG - .320 OBP - .711 OPS - 25 HR - 112 RBI
Nats Averages and MLB Ranks:
AVG - .227 (29th)
OBP - .304 (24th)
OPS - .653 (27th)
HR - 22 (T-22nd)
RBI - 102 (25th)

So far there are 20 categories total (5 each for 4 years), using the MLB Averages listed, the Nats are below the MLB Average in 19 of the 20 categories. The lone exception is OBP in 2009 (Adam Dunn's first year in DC), where the Nats were only .004 higher than average.

Also, the Nats have placed in the bottom third in 17 of the 20 categories; only exceptions are 2009 OBP, 2009 OPS, and 2010 HR. Both years where Zimmerman had top quality years, and Adam Dunn was doing his walk/HR thing.

I'll be the first to admit that this year has been a bit different so far; Zimmerman's injury, LaRoche's injury, Front Office/Roster Decisions. But this is what Eckstein is paid for, to help people hit the ball; and right now, they aren't.

I'm not saying that Eckstein is on his way out anytime soon, but based on these numbers it might not be the worst decision that Mike Rizzo ever made.

The Bright Side of .500

The Nats just completed a series win against the defending World Champions. Now 28 games in, the Nats' record is sitting solidly at 14-14, despite some serious hitting issues (which we will touch on in just a few hours). And so far, our roster has been in flux - seeing 30 different players suit up for game action. Now, we are going to look at each player on the Active Roster - and say something nice about each player. Seriously.

Alphabetical Order via Position! And GO.

1. Brian Broderick - Since giving up 6 ER in his first 2 appearances, he has only given up 1 ER in his next 5 appearances.

2. Sean Burnett - Despite his struggles of late, he has a career low BB/9 ratio, 0.79; which is more than 2 BB better than his previous career low.

3. Tyler Clippard - Has an absolutely insane 19% IRS% (inherited runner scoring percentage), allowing only 4 of 21 inherited runners to score. Clippard also leads all MLB Relievers in WPA with a 1.79.

4. Todd Coffey - Hasn't given up a run in his last 4 appearances, striking out 3 in that time frame.

5. Tom Gorzelanny - See last nights start.

6. Livan Hernandez - Continuing to confusing sabermatricians everywhere, Livo has his lowest ERA since 2003 with a 3.23. As well has his lowest HR/Fly-Ball Ratio Percentage ever with a 3.4.%

7. John Lannan - Sinkerballers thrive on getting ground-balls, Lannan is getting them more than ever with a 55% GB%, helping him to a sub-4 ERA.

8. Jason Marquis - Finally showing why the Nats signed him last year, Marquis has been the Nats best starter. His 1.1 WAR proves that, as it's the highest on the team.

9. Henry Rodriguez - After his DL-stint to start the season, Rodriguez showed that he actually can throw strikes, striking out 18 while walking only 6 in 2011 (minors and majors).

10. Doug Slaten - Though he has struggled with inherited runners, Slaten hasn't given up an earned run this year.

11. Drew Storen - Drew Storen is a beast, leading the Nats with 5 saves. He hasn't given up an ER since his first appearance of the season, 13 appearances ago.

12. Jordan Zimmermann - Zimmermann's new approach to contact-pitching has lowered his K/9 but has also insanely decreased his HR/9 - all the way to 0.25 HR/9.

13. Wilson Ramos - Ramos leads all Nats hitters in AVG, wOBA, and WAR, in addition to handling a starting rotation with better stats than anyone predicted. Future/current star.

14. Pudge Rodriguez - After starting the season in a 3 for 22 slump, Pudge now sits 2nd on the team with 10 RBI while showing a penchant for hitting his grounders between the 1st and 2nd basemen.

15. Brian Bixler - Scores 100% of the time he gets on base; (0 H, 1 BB, 1 R).

16. Alex Cora - Surprisingly, Cora has really positive UZR at both SS (0.9) and 3B (0.4).

17. Ian Desmond - Since becoming a father, Desmond is 6 for 11 with 2 2B, a 3B, and a HR. He is also 10 for 11 on stolen bases.

18. Danny Espinosa - Espinosa has hit with pop from both sides of the plate (homering from each side), while providing well above-average 2B defense.

19. Jerry Hairston - Hairston leads the team with 4 positions played. (What, you expected them all to be good stats?)

20. Adam LaRoche - Though he hasn't started hitting, his 1.4 UZR is far and away the highest on the team. LaRoche has saved many an errant throw.

21. Rick Ankiel - Over his hitting career, Ankiel struck out and hit the ball far, thats it. So far this season, Ankiel is showing more versatility and his K% is at a career best (17.0%).

22. Michael Morse - Morse is struggling, this is not news. On the bright side, his BABIP is at a career low, meaning that it should progress towards his career average as the season continues.

23. Laynce Nix - Nix's power has been impressive, in addition to his 3 HR, he hit one of the hardest balls ever at Nats Park (foul off of the 3rd deck facing). Nix leads the team in ISO (Isolated Power - we will get there).

24. Matt Stairs - The veteran has 5 walks in 18 PA.

25. Jayson Werth - Perhaps Werth is weighed down by the $126 Million Dollar contract, his season hasn't gone as planned thus far. Despite all of that, his BABIP is at a career low (bound to go up), he leads the team with 4 HR, and his K% is a career low as well. Werth is primed for a huge May. Get ready, CapBallers.

What do you think? Find some more positives out there to share in the comments!

Monday, May 2, 2011

For the Love of Pinch Hitting

Something short to lead into tonight's wrap-around finale.

Nats Pitchers at the dish this year have 7 hits in 63 ABs, good for a .111 Batting Average. And in addition to those 7 hits, our pitchers have racked up 2 Runs, 6 RBI, and 3 BB.

Those players that Jim Riggleman choose to hit for said pitchers have 1 hit in 27 ABs, good for a .037 Batting Average. With that 1 hit, they have 2 Runs, 0 RBIs, and 10 BB.

A modest proposal - take the bat off of your shoulder or let the pitchers hit.

Keys to a Nats Series Win Against Giants

After an emotional Sunday night in the Nation's Capital, where President Obama announced that United States' forces had killed Osama bin Laden, it will be back to baseball tonight for the Nats and the Giants to finish up the wrap around, 4-game series in DC.

After issuing two star Giants' pitchers losses this weekend (Lincecum and Cain), Tom Gorzelanny looks to get a win over Madison Bumgarner. Here are a few keys for the Nationals to get a series win:
  • Offense, offense, offense: Without Ryan Zimmerman until at least mid-June, the Nats offense will continue to be lethargic. In the last 2 weeks, the Nats have scored more than 4-runs just twice. Jayson Werth looks to be breaking free, though, going 3-for-4 on Sunday, and raising his average slowly, but surely. Shockingly, Laynce Nix has been an offensive staple for the Nats offense as well, and he'll need to continue to be so in Zimmerman's absence.
  • Veterans: The keys to the Nats success are almost entirely dependent on veterans for the time being, including Monday's contest against the Giants. Hairston, Cora, Werth, Nix, LaRoche, Rodriguez, and Ankiel are all going to be key players. Their average age? 33. That will make or break the team in the games to come.
  • Starting Pitching: The Nats starting pitching has been nothing short of stellar this season, especially considering what most expected of them. They're the only rotation left in baseball to have all starters go at least 5 innings (27 games and counting), and they'll need to continue on that roll. Tom Gorzelanny has had a back and forth start to the season, but he'll need to be outstanding against the young Madison Bumgarner. Despite Bumgarner's struggles to start the year (0-4; 6.17 ERA), he's got great stuff that could really shut down the Nats' struggling bats. Besides Clippard and Storen, the bullpen has been been shaky all season, and Gorzelanny will need to go as far as he can.
  • A Stable Closer: Drew Storen sure looks to be establishing himself as the closer, and he'll need to stay strong in the wake of Sean Burnett's struggles. It was good to see Burnett come in and get a quick out on Sunday's contest, but the out was a well hit ball up the middle. They got the out on good defense more than good pitching. Burnett has to stop getting lucky and start throwing better pitches to help out his fellow relievers. There aren't too many quality colleagues to rely on. Until there are, here's hoping we can give Storen the ball in the 9th with a lead a bit more often.
What say you, CapBallers? What are some other keys to a Nats series win.