The Nats and Cooperstown

It is a question for those many Nationals fans who are also baseball historians, philosophers and romantics: Who will don the first curly W to grace the walls of the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY?

It is an interesting question to say the least. For sure Ivan Rodriguez is headed there, but he most certainly will not enter the Hall as a Nat. Several other players who may garner HOF votes have played here in Washington, like Vinny Castilla who received a handful of votes this year. Livan Hernandez may one day get some consideration, and given his fondness of the Nats organization, a Livo election could very well mean a Curly W on the wall.

In my mind, there are 3 real options for who will be the first Washington National to give a speech in Cooperstown, NY on a tepid July day: Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and Ryan Zimmerman. Stephen Strasburg is as an electrifying a figure as there is among MLB pitchers. He will strike out 20 in a game and throw multiple no-hitters. But given the violence of his delivery, and the general crap-shoot that is power pitching, it is 50/50 that he pitches more than 6 or 7 full seasons. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior come to mind when thinking about Strassy, which is depressing, but I'm a Nats fan, so I am used to it. But, if he defeats the odds and is a dominant power pitcher for 10+ years, he will be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Bryce Harper's chances seem, in comparison to Stephen Strasburg's, better. And circumstance is the only reason. Each are ultra-talented, each seem to have the winning instinct. The deciding factor is position and injury likelihood. Simply put, a dominant corner OF who manages to play for 15 years is more likely to get elected to the HOF than a SP who is dominant for a handful of years and totals 7 or 8 full seasons. Fair? No. Neither I nor my brother vote for the Hall of Fame. Rest assured Cooperstown would be drastically different if we did. (Edgar Martinez belongs in the HOF, 1st Ballot, best DH ever, best Mariner ever). Bryce will be tremendously successful. He has the skill set, the swagger and the stage set. He is not a player that will slump for extended periods, nor will he start slow because of a down spring training. He defines Crash Davis' quintessential baseball advice, "Play with fear and arrogance". Except maybe not so much fear.

Most likely, in my mind, to be the first National player to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame is Ryan Zimmerman. Are injuries a problem? Yes. But Ryan's attitude, baseball IQ, natural ability and the Nats' seeming rise to national relevancy, make Zimmerman the prime candidate to be the next Ryan Braun (minus the PEDs of course). They also make him the first National to be inducted in the the Baseball HOF. Zimmerman's career will not be perfect. He may be injured 2 or 3 more times. He may not win a World Series. He won't win a batting title or HR crown. But he will be, as time progresses, the best all-around third-baseman since Brooks Robinson. And as the reactionary baseball media grows further away from the steroid era, all around baseball play will (hopefully) become paramount in HOF discussions.

The first Nationals player inducted into Cooperstown will be a must attend event for any Nats fan, especially those of us here from the beginning (If you haven't been, don't wait that long. Go. As soon as possible). Is it at least 1% sentimental to hope that player is Ryan Zimmerman? I would admit to it being almost 50%. But given his skill set, his personality and the dearth of third-basemen who grace the walls of the Hall of Fame, I believe he is the most likely Nat to enter Cooperstown and break the curly W barrier.

Thoughts on the Hall of Fame, BBWAA, and Steroid Users

This afternoon, the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) released the list of Baseball Hall of Fame inductees to Cooperstown. The list of players was short: Roberto Alomar. Bert Blyleven. End. It's good to see that this list continues to stay short and incredibly exclusive, as it should be. Congrats to both of Alomar and Blyleven on this incredible honor.

It's important to remember a few things about the Hall of Fame before we continue into a brief discussion of steroid users. The Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown is designed to enshrine the best of the best of the best in the history of America's Pastime. This is no small honor, and I don't envy the decision that the BBWAA members have to make year in and year out. Furthermore, I don't think they take the task lightly. You can't make everyone happy after all. Only 109 members in the history of the Hall have been selected by the BBWAA, making it one of the most exclusive honors that American sports have to offer.

But this is the Hall of Fame. Not the Hall of Good. Not the Hall of Very good. Not the Hall of Great. This is the place where the best of all-time go when they're done playing the sport. How you set that criteria is what makes the voting process difficult. For the most part, I think the BBWAA voters do a great job, and I'll never be one to excessively criticize the writers that vote. Though I must admit Roberto Alomar missing out on the first-ballot honors last year was a sin.

All that aside, there seems to be a recurring theme year in and year out as more players who were connected to performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) become eligible for the Hall. They're not getting in, at least any time soon. Take the two players that are the most prominently associated with steroid use that were eligible this year.

Mark McGwire: In McGwire's second ballot year, he received an even smaller percentage of the vote than he did in his first. In year one (2010), McGwire received 23.7% of the vote, or 128 votes. In year two (2011), he received 19.8%, or 115 votes. McGwire was a 12 time All-Star who cranked 583 career home runs, had 1,414 RBI, and had a 15 year career. The number of votes received already declined in just one year. It doesn't bode well for his future hopes to reach the Hall.

Rafael Palmeiro: This was Palmeiro's first year on the ballot, and he received 11% of the vote. Whether Palmeiro is a HoF player or not on statistics alone is always up for debate, but his numbers were certainly better than the 11% of the vote that he received. He had 3,020 hits, hit 569 home runs, and knocked in 1,835 runs in a 19 season career. He was clearly hurt, and significantly, by the alleged steroid use.

One thing about these numbers remains unclear to me, though. How is it possible that Mark McGwire received more votes than Palmeiro? I'm not saying that either player deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, but look at the numbers. Palmeiro had a better batting average, a longer career, more hits, more RBI, just 14 fewer home runs, and was better defensively than McGwire. How did all of the 115 people who voted for McGwire in 2011 not also see fit to vote for Palmiero, who only received 64 votes? Maybe it's a first ballot punishment. But even in his first year McGwire received a higher percentage than Palmeiro did in his first year.

This is what I'm saying about the process. It's incredibly difficult to make a decision on these things. If you want to catch a real, in depth break down on a BBWAA voter's ballot, check out Mark Zuckerman's if you haven't already done so. It's one heck of a justification, whether you agree with him or not. It's just one snapshot into the difficult decisions that the members have to make every year, and it will remind you how jealous, yet not envious, you should be.