I spend a lot of free time at FanGraphs sorting through the absolute preposterous amount of information available. Over the past few weeks we have begun seeing the 2012 Projections System's being released - basically educated guessed based on ridiculously complicated formulas. For a brief introduction to the types of systems out there, check out this primer from FanGraphs.
A few weeks ago I remembered reading a comparison of the different projections from 2011, which retroactively judged the accuracy of each system for both hitters and pitchers based on their pre-season projection and their actual stats - you can find that article here. I decided to take the winning projection systems from 2011 (ZiPS for hitters and Steamer for pitchers) to see what they think about the Nationals starting lineup for 2012. You know, for fun.
Here are the results - based on my projected opening day lineup of course.
Ian Desmond - SS
- 2011 Stats: .253/.298/.358. 8 HR. 49 RBI. 25 SB.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .256/.304/.378. 10 HR. 57 RBI. 19 SB.
Jayson Werth - RF
- 2011 Stats: .232/.330/.389. 20 HR. 58 RBI. 24.7% K%.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .245/.342/.418. 20 HR. 62 RBI. 23.7% K%.
Ryan Zimmerman - 3B
- 2011 Stats: .289/.355/.443. 12 HR. 49 RBI. 101 Games Played.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .283/.354/.476. 22 HR. 78 RBI. 134 Games Played.
Adam LaRoche - 1B
- 2011 Stats: .172/.288/.258. 3 HR. 15 RBI. 43 Games Played.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .236/.313/.415. 14 HR. 58 RBI. 99 Games Played.
Michael Morse - LF
- 2011 Stats: .303/.360/.550. 31 HR. 95 RBI. .344 BABIP.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .273/.331/.475. 22 HR. 80 RBI. .310 BABIP.
Rick Ankiel - CF
- 2011 Stats: .239/.296/.363. 9 HR. 37 RBI.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .231/.293/.386. 11 HR. 36 RBI.
Danny Espinosa - 2B
- 2011 Stats: .236/.323/.414. 21 HR. 66 RBI. 25.2% K%.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .229/.309/.400. 20 HR. 71 RBI. 26.6% K%.
Wilson Ramos - C
- 2011 Stats: .267/.334/.445. 15 HR. 52 RBI.
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .266/.338/.453. 17 HR. 55 RBI.
For Fun - Bryce Harper
- 2012 ZiPS Projection: .238/.317/.405. 17 HR. 60 RBI. 132 Games.
As you can clearly see, several of the players have closely related 2011 stats and projections - whereas the exact players that you would expect to have drastically different numbers (LaRoche, Zimmerman, and Morse) have just that.
Let's check out pitchers now!
Stephen Strasburg
- 2011 Stats: 5 Games Started. 1-1 Record. 1.50 ERA. 1.28 FIP. 0.71 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 27 Games Started. 11-7 Record. 2.79 ERA. 2.51 FIP. 1.13 WHIP.
Gio Gonzalez
- 2011 Stats: 32 Games Started. 16-12 Record. 3.12 ERA. 3.64 FIP. 1.32 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 30 Games Started. 11-10 Record. 3.67 ERA. 3.46 FIP. 1.35 WHIP.
Jordan Zimmermann
- 2011 Stats: 26 Games Started. 8-11 Record. 3.18 ERA. 3.16 FIP. 1.15 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 31 Games Started. 11-11 Record. 3.77 ERA. 3.63 FIP. 1.26 WHIP.
Edwin Jackson
- 2011 Stats: 31 Games Started. 12-9 Record. 3.79 ERA. 3.55 FIP. 1.44 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 31 Games Started. 11-11 Record. 3.83 ER. 3.59 FIP. 1.30 WHIP.
Chien-Ming Wang
- 2011 Stats: 11 Games Started. 4-3 Record. 4.04 ERA. 4.57 FIP. 1.28 WHIP.
- 2012 Steamer Projections: 23 Games Started. 7-9 Record. 4.49 ERA. 3.99 FIP. 1.40 WHIP.
Whew!
That was a whole lot of numbers. Projections being as they are, I found it most interesting that each of the Nats first 4 pitchers are pegged for 11-win seasons. Some other tidbits that struck my eye...
- Strasburg's projected ERA would place him in the Top 10 of NL Starting Pitchers.
- I'm surprised a bit that Gonzalez's numbers took that big of a hit - I know he is coming over from a pitchers park but he is also switching from the AL to the NL.
- Chien-Ming Wang is a complete wild card.
- 4 out of 5 pitchers projected for a sub-4 ERA? I'll take it.
So there you have it. Fun with Projections.
Which of these projections do you think are the most/least accurate? What are some of your projections? The Comments await!
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Nats Talk On The Go: Episode 9
The Nats Blog's Joe Drugan and Capitol Baseball's Craig MacHenry talk Washington Nationals baseball.
In this week's episode, we discuss:
In this week's episode, we discuss:
- Ryan Zimmerman's contract extension
- Is any team better set up for the next 5 years than the Washington Nationals?
- Under the Radar and Biggest Impact players in 2012
- Hockey musings
- ... and more.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Anatomy of a Face
Face of the Franchise.
Nats fans have heard this term bandied about when describing Ryan Zimmerman since before his first appearance on the field in 2005. And perhaps his on field play, behavior, and decisions since then have spoiled our judgement when it comes to the what that term actually means. Let's run down what, at least in my mind, makes up a "Face of the Franchise" player.
Home-Grown: A true face of the franchise is not traded for, at least not the major league level. To really become a unilaterally appreciated and adored player, fans need to see the major league debut and watch how he develops as a player and man. Some Faces are acquired at some lower minor league level, but for the most part, these players are identified as special so early on that a trade is unlikely.
All-Star Caliber: While long-term role-players and over-achievers are often times key to long term success and are sometimes wholly embraced by the fan base, to truly define a franchise you need to reach an elite level of play over many years for the franchise.
Team Player/Community Hero: The reason teams often hold these players up as their face is because they embody the spirit of team work and volunteerism while also being dedicated to the team and the area.
Zimmerman's case: Slam dunk. The first pick in Nationals history. A career that will included a litany of accolades, spent in a city close to his home and family. Surrounded by a team of young players he has helped mentor and talented veterans he helped lure in. Already signed through 2019 to a contract that allows the team flexibility right now, and I'm sure more than a few nights reserved for the ZiMS foundation. Leader and mentor, line-up cornerstone, and defensive rock completely dedicated to the organization and the community, Ryan Zimmerman has an opportunity to define all that is good in sports.
Other true faces of the franchise in today's game? You go straight to Derek Jeter, who, in terms of championships and longevity you hope that Zim mirrors. Newly vindicated Ryan Braun, who was taken in the same draft and has a similar contract history with a mid-market team seems to be another Face. Evan Longoria is another player in similar position to stay with 1 team his whole career and define a previously undefinable franchise. Other players who are, or are on the verge of being, true Faces are Joey Votto, Joe Mauer, Justin Verlander, and Troy Tulowitski.
There are several hybrid faces of the franchise that are interesting cases. Big Papi for one in Boston is their Face, even though he came up with another team, breaking an 84 year-old curse is a great way to leapfrog some of the requirements for a true Face of the Franchise. Another interesting case is Ichiro - a player so transcendent and talented easily became the Mariners Face in his first season. Albert Pujos and Jose Reyes become almost instant Faces, one on talent alone, the other based on the direction of a new organization (Hanley Ramirez is NOT the face of the Marlins and never could be - I believe we will see why during Spring Training). Honorable Mention to Michael Young in Texas who has all the criteria yet none of the respect or accolades.
Did I miss someone? Most probably. Tell me who!
Nats fans have heard this term bandied about when describing Ryan Zimmerman since before his first appearance on the field in 2005. And perhaps his on field play, behavior, and decisions since then have spoiled our judgement when it comes to the what that term actually means. Let's run down what, at least in my mind, makes up a "Face of the Franchise" player.
Home-Grown: A true face of the franchise is not traded for, at least not the major league level. To really become a unilaterally appreciated and adored player, fans need to see the major league debut and watch how he develops as a player and man. Some Faces are acquired at some lower minor league level, but for the most part, these players are identified as special so early on that a trade is unlikely.
All-Star Caliber: While long-term role-players and over-achievers are often times key to long term success and are sometimes wholly embraced by the fan base, to truly define a franchise you need to reach an elite level of play over many years for the franchise.
Team Player/Community Hero: The reason teams often hold these players up as their face is because they embody the spirit of team work and volunteerism while also being dedicated to the team and the area.
Zimmerman's case: Slam dunk. The first pick in Nationals history. A career that will included a litany of accolades, spent in a city close to his home and family. Surrounded by a team of young players he has helped mentor and talented veterans he helped lure in. Already signed through 2019 to a contract that allows the team flexibility right now, and I'm sure more than a few nights reserved for the ZiMS foundation. Leader and mentor, line-up cornerstone, and defensive rock completely dedicated to the organization and the community, Ryan Zimmerman has an opportunity to define all that is good in sports.
Other true faces of the franchise in today's game? You go straight to Derek Jeter, who, in terms of championships and longevity you hope that Zim mirrors. Newly vindicated Ryan Braun, who was taken in the same draft and has a similar contract history with a mid-market team seems to be another Face. Evan Longoria is another player in similar position to stay with 1 team his whole career and define a previously undefinable franchise. Other players who are, or are on the verge of being, true Faces are Joey Votto, Joe Mauer, Justin Verlander, and Troy Tulowitski.
There are several hybrid faces of the franchise that are interesting cases. Big Papi for one in Boston is their Face, even though he came up with another team, breaking an 84 year-old curse is a great way to leapfrog some of the requirements for a true Face of the Franchise. Another interesting case is Ichiro - a player so transcendent and talented easily became the Mariners Face in his first season. Albert Pujos and Jose Reyes become almost instant Faces, one on talent alone, the other based on the direction of a new organization (Hanley Ramirez is NOT the face of the Marlins and never could be - I believe we will see why during Spring Training). Honorable Mention to Michael Young in Texas who has all the criteria yet none of the respect or accolades.
Did I miss someone? Most probably. Tell me who!
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Deadline Passed
The Ryan Zimmerman Contract Extension Self-Imposed Deadline has now passed - and there has been no announcement of a deal. However, since 10:00 there has only been one tweet from any of the Nats beat writers; that simply stated that the meeting was over and that the players were on the field. Read into that what you will...
Even if a deal is not announced, please remember that the last time Zimmerman signed a contract extension it was announced more than three weeks after the fact. What is important is if the Nats were able to open their eyes and see that he would take a hometown discount in return for a no-trade clause, which would only affect the team for the next three seasons, until his 10-and-5 rights kick in.
The moral of the story is, be patient.
As always, stay tuned to Capitol Baseball for all the latest on the Nats 2012 Spring Training!
Even if a deal is not announced, please remember that the last time Zimmerman signed a contract extension it was announced more than three weeks after the fact. What is important is if the Nats were able to open their eyes and see that he would take a hometown discount in return for a no-trade clause, which would only affect the team for the next three seasons, until his 10-and-5 rights kick in.
The moral of the story is, be patient.
As always, stay tuned to Capitol Baseball for all the latest on the Nats 2012 Spring Training!
Friday, February 24, 2012
Poll: Zimmerman Extension
Tomorrow morning is the Ryan Zimmerman Self-Imposed Contract Extension Negotiation drop dead time. Rumors of a pending deal have been swirling around the twitter-verse over the past day or so, saying that there is progress but still a few hang-ups - one of which is a No Trade Clause.
We are going to take a quick poll here.
Does Ryan Zimmerman get extended by the deadline"
- Yes? If so, what's the length/amount of the deal
- No?
My prediction: Zimmerman signs a 7-year/$127 Million extension before the deadline.
GO!
We are going to take a quick poll here.
Does Ryan Zimmerman get extended by the deadline"
- Yes? If so, what's the length/amount of the deal
- No?
My prediction: Zimmerman signs a 7-year/$127 Million extension before the deadline.
GO!
Thursday, February 23, 2012
What To Do With Lombo
There is a huge elephant in the Nationals clubhouse centered around one of their prospects and what Spring Training will entail for this young man. That man is Steve Lombardozzi.
Seriously, this is a player that has been mentioned by everyone in NatsTown as a successor for the Nationals middle infield - at 2nd base with Espinosa moving to his natural position, SS. For the record, Mike Rizzo refused to include Lombardozzi in a few trades last year that would've netted the ballclub a center fielder. And barring a trade, are the Nationals really going to make a 23 year-old prospect a utility infielder? Would you?
This offseason saw Lombo crack every major prospect-ranking list, ranking #8 for Baseball Prospectus, #10 for Baseball America, and #13 for Fangraphs. According to Baseball America, he is the Best Defensive Infielder in the entire Nationals System - high praise from one of the top media outlets for prospects.
There is always some wiggle room involved with this kind of thing and according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, Davey Johnson plans to use him in a "hybrid" role to get him to 300 Major League ABs in 2012. I have no idea how this is going to effect his development, and if anyone tells you they do know, they are lying.
Let's check out some of his minor league numbers, bullet-point style:
- He has had an average of approx. 606 ABs/year for the past three years.
- In those three years he has hit .296, .294, and .309 in A, A+/AA, and AA/AAA respectively.
- His career MiLB OBP is .369 - this is over 447 games.
- His career MiLB K% is 12.5%.
- Last season he had just 2 errors in 539 chances at 2B.
The truth of the matter is that, according to his MiLB stats, he is ready to make the jump to the Majors.
So once again, would it be wise for the team to bring Lombo up north with the big club come Opening Day for "hybrid" role? Does he play 2nd Base and you bench Espinosa or have Espi play Short? Does he play Short and you bench the more veteran Desmond or have Desi play 2nd?
What do you think, CapBallers?
Seriously, this is a player that has been mentioned by everyone in NatsTown as a successor for the Nationals middle infield - at 2nd base with Espinosa moving to his natural position, SS. For the record, Mike Rizzo refused to include Lombardozzi in a few trades last year that would've netted the ballclub a center fielder. And barring a trade, are the Nationals really going to make a 23 year-old prospect a utility infielder? Would you?
This offseason saw Lombo crack every major prospect-ranking list, ranking #8 for Baseball Prospectus, #10 for Baseball America, and #13 for Fangraphs. According to Baseball America, he is the Best Defensive Infielder in the entire Nationals System - high praise from one of the top media outlets for prospects.
There is always some wiggle room involved with this kind of thing and according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, Davey Johnson plans to use him in a "hybrid" role to get him to 300 Major League ABs in 2012. I have no idea how this is going to effect his development, and if anyone tells you they do know, they are lying.
Let's check out some of his minor league numbers, bullet-point style:
- He has had an average of approx. 606 ABs/year for the past three years.
- In those three years he has hit .296, .294, and .309 in A, A+/AA, and AA/AAA respectively.
- His career MiLB OBP is .369 - this is over 447 games.
- His career MiLB K% is 12.5%.
- Last season he had just 2 errors in 539 chances at 2B.
The truth of the matter is that, according to his MiLB stats, he is ready to make the jump to the Majors.
So once again, would it be wise for the team to bring Lombo up north with the big club come Opening Day for "hybrid" role? Does he play 2nd Base and you bench Espinosa or have Espi play Short? Does he play Short and you bench the more veteran Desmond or have Desi play 2nd?
What do you think, CapBallers?
Monday, February 20, 2012
Anatomy of a Backup
Yesterday as I was laying in bed I was thinking about the Nats - not out of the ordinary, but don't tell my fiancee that... And as I was laying there I was wondering about who exactly Jesus Flores is as a player. Is he going to be the 2009 starter that hit .301 or is he going to be the player that was confounded by injuries?
Jesus Flores fascinates me. The guy just doesn't have the word quit in his vocabulary. In 2007 he was drafted by the Nationals from the Mets in the Rule V (five) Draft and, improbably, stayed with the team the entire season. Even more incredible is the fact that he was able to register a 0.6 WAR in just 79 games despite the fact that the previous year he had only made it to High-A Port St. Lucie. He hit .266 in 2006 at High-A and he hit .244 in 2007 in the Majors. Insanity.
It's around this time that GM Jim Bowden realized that he found something special, a catcher with a serious learning curve. And things would only get better as he successfully split-time with Johnny Estrada and Wil Nieves in 2008.
2009 would end up being the turning point in Jesus Flores career. He started the season on a tear and hit .311 in his first 26 games until a rogue foul ball hit him in the right shoulder.
Flores would make it back to the majors in September for 3 ABs but all told he missed the rest of the 2009 season and the entire 2010 season with a stress fracture in his shoulder (which Rizzo said would be fine in no more than three months).
Despite the fact that he was the starting Catcher when he was injured, Flores found himself has the third wheel in the Nationals organization. Finally healthy, he was in Syracuse trying to scrape the Big Leagues yet again, blocked by Ramos and Pudge. His numbers were less than stellar (.234/.252/.378) but he was brought up to the Majors anyway come July, because really, every team needs three catchers on their 25 man...
His numbers in 2011 were merely a shadow of his former self - .209/.253/.314, yep, that's a slugging of .314. He was out-slugged by two National League pitchers; Daniel Hudson .369 and Yovani Gallardo .324.
I, as a baseball fan, hope that Jesus Flores can reclaim the magic that made him a future star in 2009. This will definitely be one of the stories that we will be following this spring, which Flores is going to show up to camp; a healthy one or a shell of his former self.
The Spring Awaits!!
Jesus Flores fascinates me. The guy just doesn't have the word quit in his vocabulary. In 2007 he was drafted by the Nationals from the Mets in the Rule V (five) Draft and, improbably, stayed with the team the entire season. Even more incredible is the fact that he was able to register a 0.6 WAR in just 79 games despite the fact that the previous year he had only made it to High-A Port St. Lucie. He hit .266 in 2006 at High-A and he hit .244 in 2007 in the Majors. Insanity.
It's around this time that GM Jim Bowden realized that he found something special, a catcher with a serious learning curve. And things would only get better as he successfully split-time with Johnny Estrada and Wil Nieves in 2008.
2009 would end up being the turning point in Jesus Flores career. He started the season on a tear and hit .311 in his first 26 games until a rogue foul ball hit him in the right shoulder.
Flores would make it back to the majors in September for 3 ABs but all told he missed the rest of the 2009 season and the entire 2010 season with a stress fracture in his shoulder (which Rizzo said would be fine in no more than three months).
Despite the fact that he was the starting Catcher when he was injured, Flores found himself has the third wheel in the Nationals organization. Finally healthy, he was in Syracuse trying to scrape the Big Leagues yet again, blocked by Ramos and Pudge. His numbers were less than stellar (.234/.252/.378) but he was brought up to the Majors anyway come July, because really, every team needs three catchers on their 25 man...
His numbers in 2011 were merely a shadow of his former self - .209/.253/.314, yep, that's a slugging of .314. He was out-slugged by two National League pitchers; Daniel Hudson .369 and Yovani Gallardo .324.
I, as a baseball fan, hope that Jesus Flores can reclaim the magic that made him a future star in 2009. This will definitely be one of the stories that we will be following this spring, which Flores is going to show up to camp; a healthy one or a shell of his former self.
The Spring Awaits!!
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