You Can Never Have Enough Starting Pitching

Leave it to Mike Rizzo to sign a starter the day after we post our 2012 Pitching Predictions...

Check with us next time Mike. Yes. The Nats, already 7 or 8 starters deep, signed Edwin Jackson to a one-year deal yesterday, adding yet another arm to a crowded rotation. Now, 4 out of the 5 spots are basically locked down with Wang, Lannan, and Detwiler squeezed (squoze? squozen?) into the 5 spot, and with the rumors swirling about Lannan, it might come down to just Wang and Detwiler.

This move by Rizzo indicates to me that he wants to launch the Nats not only into relevancy, but into a deep playoff run this season; imagine the Nats new top 4 in a short series or even a 7 game series. That is a scary proposition for a potential playoff opponent. Most-importantly, he has done this without turning 2012 into an all-or-nothing year. Gio, Strasburg, and Zimmermann are all long-term pieces and should Detwiler step up, the Nats would have 4 young core starters. So, by signing EJax to a one year deal the Nats become serious contenders this year, without sacrificing the future.

Mike Rizzo called this signing and the Nats desire to add a centerfielder through the trade market "mutually exclusive". Methinks that a declaration of shenanigans is in order. Of course they are related, Rizzo can now shop Lannan, an eminently serviceable back of the rotation arm. Paired with several other pieces (Desmond, LaRoche, Bernandina, a rehabbing Chris Marerro, et al.), Rizzo may be able to swing a deal.

How likely is that? Lannan doesn't blow anyone's skirt up, but he is still young, he has shown the ability to pitch in the major leagues, and he is under team control for another 2 years. These are all things that have proven to be valued in the current baseball economy.

The saying "you can never have enough starting pitching" is true. Injuries happen and sometimes players just don't perform to the level their are capable, and in those instances, it's nice to have back-up. But the main reason this nugget is true is that a wealth of starting pitching gives you confidence. Today, Mike Rizzo paid $10 million dollars to Edwin Jackson. While it improved the on-field product, it also opened up 100 more options for the Nats in the trade market, bullpen make-up, and player development.

And that's why you can never have enough starting pitching.

Nats Drop Opening Series to Braves

So, in a span of 3 games we have seen exactly what the Nationals plan to offer this year; good and bad. Starting the season last Thursday, the Home team put forth an anemic effort against Derek Lowe, scoring 0 runs and managing just 5 hits. Saturday we saw glimpses of what this team is capable of, winning a 6-3 decision that saw the Nats lead almost the whole game. And on Sunday, we saw a last years Nats (errors, bullpen implosions, random balks, etc.) en route to an 11-2 thrashing despite a solid outing by Jordan Zimmermann. To recap such a weekend's events, we have the Zuckablog taking on the Starting Pitchers role, while Kilgore takes on the progress of last years Nats that have moved on. Time to pick up the pieces.

The Good:
- Danny Espinosa is 4 for 9 with 2 doubles.
- Jayson Werth has shown why we are paying him the big bucks, going 4 for 10 with 2 doubles and 3 walks. Though he has had a few misplays in the outfield.
- Nats have just 1 error in their first 3 games (and its not Ian Desmond!). There have been several displays of improved defense by our infielders/new arrivals (Zim, Espi, LaRoche, and Werth), which have saved extra bases countless times.
- Wilson Ramos is 3 for 5.
- Starting pitching has been spectacular, just a 2.60 ERA (5 ER in 17.1 IP) with a 0.981 WHIP (13 H + 4 BB in 17.1 IP).
- Nats have been very aggressive on the basepaths, often going from 1st to 3rd on singles = The Bo Porter Effect.
- Sean Burnett is has still yet to allow a run in 2011.
- Tyler Clippard has stranded all 4 inherited runners.
- Riggleman managed his butt off on Saturday, putting on a suicide squeeze in the perfect situation (which Ankiel and Zimmerman pulled off to a T). His "smart ball" system is "working" for him, as the Nats have 4 sacrifice hits/flys in 3 games.

The Bad:
- Ian Desmond is 0 for 13 on the season, with 3 strikeouts. 8 of those 13 have come leading off an inning, all of his strikeouts are in those situations.
- The Nats, as a team, are just 3 for 26 with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP), knocking in just 6.
- Adam LaRoche is 1 for 7 with RISP.
- Pitchers throwing first pitch strikes is nice, but twice so far they have been tattooed into the stands.
- Pudge is now 0 for 6 with a GIDP.
- Brian Broderick with his memorable first career MLB appearance...
- Chad Gaudin with 3 ER in just 0.2 IP.
- Doug Slaten = highly ineffective. 3 appearances, just 0.1 IP - 2 BB, 2 H. Thursday - walked only batter faced. Saturday - gave up a double to only batter faced. Sunday - faced 3 batters; BB, RBI single, groundout.

What's Next:
Tuesday - Marquis vs. Sanchez
Wednesday - Hernandez vs. Volstad
Thursday - Lannan vs. Johnson

What, if anything, did you take from our first 3 games of the season? Tell us in the comments.

Nats Still Trying

A report came out yesterday on MLBTradeRumors.com about former Padres pitcher Chris Young and his potential destinations this offseason. In his report, Buster Olney of ESPN states that the right hander is down to two options; the Mets and the Nats. This is the first time this Hot Stove League that the Nats have been connected in any way to Young, though it doesn't come as much of a surprise seeing as though every pitcher the team has targeted has signed elsewhere, sometimes for less money. Lets break this down via old-school pros and cons list.

Pros:
- Has been a positive WAR player every year of his career minus an injury-plagued 2009.
- Would be a cheap, but incentive-laden, contract (around $2 million guaranteed).
- Spent 3 years in the Expos-system (not really a pro, just a cool thing).
- Bill James projects him as having a winning record with a 3.46 ERA.
- Former All-Star with a chip on his shoulder after being denied a club option for 2011.
- In his four 2011 appearances he went 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
- Our rotation is less than set and, if healthy, he can be a top 3 starter for us.
- Baseball Reference comparable players include Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza.
- He is 6' 10".

Cons:
- Has been on the DL four times in the past four years.
- Two of those injuries have been season ending injuries.
- Both of those season ending injuries have been pitching shoulder related.
- Has only played 18 games in the past two seasons.
- We already have Chien-Ming Wang as a pitching reclamation project.
- Low velocity 85-90.
- Baseball Reference comparable players also include Erik Bedard and Mark Prior.

In case you didn't notice, Chris Young has been injured more than Jesus Flores, and that is the only reason that the Nats should be hesitant in this endeavor. But this is a year that is shaping up to be a repeat of the ill-fated 2007 starting pitcher cattle-call edition of Spring Training. If the Nats sign Young, he would join Lannan, Marquis, Zimmermann, Mock, Martis, Atilano, Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Martin, Stammen, Chico, Wang, Broderick, Tatusko and whoever else the Nats invite to Spring Training (maybe Jason Simontacchi). Many people fighting for one spot will bring the level of competition in Spring Training up a few notches, especially if one (or two) of those pitchers is trying to complete a long and arduous comeback from injury to prove his worth.

If you were crazy enough to ask for my opinion I would tell you that the Nats should go for it. Its a win-win situation. In the grand scheme of things this would be around a $2 million dolllar investment. Downside being wasted money and the upside being a repeat performance of his 2007 season where he posted a 3.12 ERA. And if I'm in charge, I spend $2 million for that proven starter's potential every day of the week.

Thoughts? Let's see them in the comments.

Jordan Zimmermann's Final Push

(Photo Courtesy Nationals.com)

On Friday, Jordan Zimmermann will make what will likely be his final start in a Syracuse Chiefs uniform. JZimm is making the long recovery from Tommy John surgery, and has been rehabbing with Nationals affiliates all season. When he had surgery in August 2009, the Nats figured they had lost Zimmermann for the 2009 and 2010 seasons, as Tommy John typically has an 18 month recovery period. However, just 12 months later, Zimmermann looks to be ready to return to the Nats' rotation.

JZimm has quickly worked his way up from low-A Hagerstown to high-A Potomac to AA Harrisburg to AAA Syracuse. He ws scheduled to pitch 4 games in Syracuse, getting an inning longer in each game. In his 3rd start with Syracuse on August 15th, Zimmermann went 5 innings, and give up 1 run on 6 hits. In his 3 starts with Syracuse, he has an 0.75 ERA and opponents are batting just .167 against him.

Everyone that's seen him pitch live this season say that Zimmermann is ready, and has been for more than a month. In all of his minor league appearances, he's posting a 1.82 ERA in 34.2 innings. But the Nats Front Office have decided to hold him back, probably wisely, as he is just 24 years old and 2010 is a lost season. Translation: there is no reason to rush him back.

JZimm is expected to go 5 innings Friday and to go no longer than 5 innings for the rest of the year, even with the big club, to help save his arm to be at the top of the rotation next year. Seeing Jordan Zimmermann come back should be just as exciting to hardcore Nats fans as seeing Stephen Strasburg on June 8th this year. Zimmermann was supposed to be the pitching future of the Nats before Strasburg stole that role, but a number 2 starter is as valuable as a strong number 1 like Strasburg.

As a quick reminder, Zimmermann's numbers in 2009 before injury: 91.1 IP; 4.63 ERA; 92 K; 29 BB. In 16 starts, he threw less than 5 innings just once in his rookie season, and threw 6 or more innings half of those times. The Nats are understandably excited to get Jordan Zimmermann back as soon as possible.

Glass Arms: The Story of the Nationals' Starters

In the last few days, more Nats starters have been placed on the disabled list, and I thought we should briefly review the list of pitchers who started for the Nats at some point this season that ended up on the DL. The results are below, and they're not pretty.

1. Garrett Mock - Spine injury. Mock has been on the 60-day DL since April and is done for the year. After his one start.
   
2. Jason Marquis - Elbow. Marquis had surgery to remove loose bodies in his throwing elbow and missed 3 months. He returned to a loss on Sunday.
   
3. Luis Atilano - Elbow. see Jason Marquis, except Atilano's season is over.
   
4. Scott Olsen - Shoulder. The same surgically repaired throwing shoulder that has nagged him for his entire career, and he missed June and July with the problem. He's back and pitching well, for now.
   
5. J.D. Martin - Back. Martin was placed on the 60-day DL and will miss the rest of the season to have bulging discs in his back repaired. He'll supposedly be ready for next season. It's not likely that the Nats will be able to find him a rotation spot to start the season though.
   
6. Ross Detwiler - Hip. The same hip he had fixed in the off-season that caused him to miss half of 2010. You don't like to see recurring injuries in a kid this young.
7. Stephen Strasburg - Shoulder tightness. He'll be returning Tuesday to face the Marlins in DC, but even the Nats most coveted arm spent time on the DL.

And those are just the 7 that have actually appeared this season already. It doesn't include Jordan Zimmermann, who should be returning to the Nats rotation in the next few weeks after an incredibly speedy recovery from Tommy John surgery. Or John Lannan, who missed starts but was not actually placed on the DL before he was unceremoniously demoted to Harrisburg back in June. Or any of the relievers that have ended up on the DL.

So the question begs to be answered. Can all of these starters possibly be this fragile? Is this really the result of players whipping their arms around at speeds that defy the human anatomy? Or does the problem go deeper: an organizational problem?

It's hard to know for sure with a one season sample size, but it's certainly cause for concern. I'm not going to call out the training staff, yet. But it's worth watching if these same pitchers keep experiencing these same problems year after year with this same training staff. There's no reason a team should be demoting and promoting this much because their pitchers simply can't get and stay healthy.

Strasburg starts Tuesday, which seems to be one of the only good days of the rotation for Nats fans now a days. But with his sore shoulder, even he isn't immune from the physical toll of baseball every day. So what say you, NatsTown? Just a bunch of flukes, or a more serious issue?