AFL Update - Pitchers

The end of October and the beginning of November can be a depressing time in the life of any baseball fan. The World Series is over, and for 99 percent of fans, your team isn't the World Champions. The Winter Meetings are still more than a month away, with the magic words ("pitchers and catchers report") still at least 2 months away from being uttered.

But, there is hope. Toiling away in the dessert of Arizona are the cream of the prospect crop. The Nats prospects have teamed up with prospects from the Angles, Giants, Phillies and Red Sox to form the 2011 incarnation of the Scottsdale Scorpions (10-16, last in the AFL East and just 1 game out of dead last in the league). With the Arizona Fall League at its half-way mark, lets see what impact the Nats representatives are making.

Pat Lehman - 25 Years Old - RHP - Taken in the 13th round of the 2009 First-Year Player Draft

His 2011: In 13 games as the Potomac Nationals closer he had 7 saves, an ERA of 1.72, and a microscopic 0.574 WHIP. He played in 29 games for the Senators, with 6 saves, a still healthy 0.765 WHIP, adding 34 Ks in 34 IP.

AFL Stats: 10.2 IP, 8.44 ERA, 17 H, 10 ER, 2BB, 10 Ks. Not exactly what the Nats were looking for in regards to a reliever they had high hopes for. He will still likely start 2012 in Harrisburg, perhaps moving up to Syracuse to replace relievers who move up to DC during the year, but the Nats would have loved to be wowed and forced to consider him for big league spring training.

Rafael Martin - 27 Years Old - RHP - Signed from the Mexican League in 2010

His 2011: He started the year with Potomac as a middle reliever. Pitching only 8 innings, he struck out 10 and gave up 6 hits and 1 earned run on the way to a 1.12 ERA. He spent most of his year at Harrisburg, pitching in 32 games with a 1.77 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP.

AFL Stats: 9 IP, 2.00 ERA, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 Ks. Rafael is a power arm and the Nats would like to see more Ks from a guy who had a 11.1 K/9 this season, but he definitely holding his own against some of the better players in the minors. He will likely start the season at Syracuse as a 7th or 8th inning guy and may see an invite to spring training, depending on the health of several relievers.

Matt Purke - 21 Years Old - LHP - Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2011 First-Year Player Draft and signed to a Major League Contract.

His 2011: He went 5-1 in 11 starts for Texas Christian University. Across 52.2 IP he allowed 10 ER on 36 Hits, striking out 61 and walking 20.

AFL Stats: Welcome to pro ball kid. 4.1 IP, 11 earned runs, 10 hits, 2 BB. His first start he got just 1 out and allowed 7 runs on 5 hits and a walk. To expect him to go from an injury shortened season into a league featuring premiere prospects was a bit foolish, though with the MLB contract the Nats needed to know where he was. He will be invited to big-league camp, but seems bound for Harrisburg, though a poor showing in Viera could punch his ticket for Woodbridge.

Sammy Solis - 23 Years Old - LHP - Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2010 First-Year Player Draft.
His 2011: He started the year with Hagerstown, starting 7 games with an ERA of 4.02, but he really hit his stride at Potomac, starting 10 games, giving up 17 ER on 61 hits with 53 Ks.

AFL Stats: He has started 6 games, some good, some not, though he seems to have hit his stride in the last 2, not allowing an earned runs and racking up 14 Ks, 9 in his most recent start. Sammy is progressing nicely and should be headed for Potomac to begin the 2012 campaign, with quick promotions afoot if he excels. But more over, I feel if he continues his recent dominance in the AFL, he can become a valuable trade chip, possibly becoming the centerpiece in a trade for Denard Span or another young centerfielder.

Tomorrow we will check in on Derek Norris, Zach Walters and some kid named Bryce.

Comments? Questions? Declarations? Mad love for Beast Mode's Asian Adventure? Leave it!

The Nats, Centerfield, and Value

So, ever since the end of the season… all we have heard from the Nats front office is that we need high OBP leadoff-man who plays CF. The reasons are clear - a lack of runners on base for the top of the lineup, and a desire to lock down the one position up the middle where there is questions. No one is debating the need for a speedy, heads up, center-fielder. No one is debating the need for a real life leadoff-man, capable of igniting rallies and create havoc on the base paths.

The question then arises… how exactly do we do this? Through free agency any team can expect to overpay and be underwhelmed; it’s the nature of the beast. Trading for premium positions, like Centerfield, can also be cost prohibitive. And looking for an internal answer is problematic because we know roughly what the Nats have and so far no one has come along with the tools and mindset to blow us away.

So what’s out there, in terms of free agents. The straightforward answer is Jim Bowden’s dream crop; reclamation projects, veterans looking for another chance and toolsy guys who may just need a change of scenery. So, are we going after a veteran, a stop-gap to The Chosen One… or are we seeking a long term solution. If the answer is for a long term solution, the free agent cupboard may be bare.

Only Felix Pie, Grady Sizemore, and Nate McLouth are 30 or under. McLouth has a $10+ million dollar team option for next year and a career OBP of .337 and total zone rating of -25 in CF. Pie’s OBP is much worse, but his zone rating in CF is far superior. Sizemore was once a special player, but 5 injuries in the past few years as well as a 2012 club option make this a less than likely option. Pie would be cheap, but for a reason he doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table. McLouth and Sizemore are both on the cusp of their careers and forking out 5 or 6 million a year for 4 or 5 years is seemingly too large a gamble.

If the Nats brass thinks Bryce Harper will be the solution by the end of 2013, a stop-gap solution may be the right course of action. There are a plethora of 31-34 year old outfielders who could bridge the gap to Bryce, either playing CF or RF while Jayson Werth roams center. Xavier Nady, Ryan Ludwick, and David Dejesus are just a few of the names out there. I think Dejesus actually has the most upside, with a career OBP just north of .350 and a good glove in center. I would not be surprised to see the Nats make a run at him, as he will not likely cost a draft pick.

But I think the best option, whether Bryce is ready or not, is to trade for a young, high OBP outfielder because it will create the most value for the franchise. The stats On-base Percentage and On-Base Plus Slugging have become over-valued, and the positions up the middle have always been at a premium especially on the defensive side (C, SS, 2B, CF). Paying for these stats for this premium position creates a situation where you are overpaying, in a huge way. In free agency, that is compounded by competition from other teams, exacerbating the problem. The best way to mitigate this problem is by trading equally over-valued pieces - young starting pitching. By trading away a what-if for a young, team controlled outfielder, the Nats can make their on-field product better without compromising the make-up of the current roster.

Rizzo wants to make a move. Davey wants to make a move. Denard Span and BJ Upton are the ones to watch for on the trade market. BJ is not a traditional lead-off man but could fit Davey’s schematic. Span is the real prize to be had, he has the tools to really be great - but a history of concussion problems. DeJesus, as I alluded to, should be a target in free agency if the Nats can’t figure out how to make a trade. Keep an eye on Sammy Solis in the Arizona Fall League. If he can stand out, he may create enough value this winter to bring what Rizzo wants, without trading away any of the core prospects.