Lannan's Struggles Continue; Team Moves On

It is still remarkable to consider that a pitcher for a Major League Baseball team could go from Opening Day starter to struggling in AA in one season, but that's exactly what John Lannan has done in the course of 4 short months.

Manager Jim Riggleman listed John Lannan, Matt Chico, and Ross Detwiler as possible starters in place of Luis Atilano this Sunday after he was placed on the DL with bone chips in his elbow. Lannan started on Thursday in Harrisburg, so that basically eliminates a Sunday start for him. However, even if it wouldn't be short rest, Lannan hasn't made a case for himself since he left DC.

When Lannan was sent down, he showed no signs of being a top of the rotation starter. His ERA was 5.76, he had walked 35 batters in just 14 starts. Considering in his last two seasons, his ERA was below 4.00, something was obviously wrong. At first, the Nats thought he was hurt. He missed a start, came back, and nothing. So the organization did the unthinkable. They demoted their Opening Day starter. (Aside: The Nats starting rotation on Opening Day included Lannan, Mock, Stammen, and Marquis. Of those 4, none of them have spent the entire season in the majors, and Stammen is the only one in the rotation today. And that's probably temporary.)

But since Lannan trekked up Route 15 to Harrisburg, PA, there hasn't been much improvement. His ERA is down to 4.29, but he's facing merely adequate major league talent. He is 1-3, and while you can't learn everything by wins and losses, in his most recent outing, Lannan gave up 4 runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings. In Lannan's last start on July 17th, he went just 4 2/3 innings and gave up 4 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits.

So while Lannan tries to figure it out in Double-A, Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman are getting closer to MLB-ready. Strasburg has solidified himself as the Nats ace for years to come (Please don't be like Mark Prior, Please don't be like Mark Prior...). Livan has shown that he can still be a middle to bottom of the rotation innings eater. Scott Olsen and Jason Marquis could both be on their way back to the rotation soon. So all of a sudden, even with Strasburg being shut down in a few weeks, it looks like there may be no room for the Nats 2010 Opening Day starter on the expanded September roster.

It is a meteoric decline by a guy that many considered a 3rd or 4th spot starter (after Strasburg and Zimmermann) for many years to come. Lannan is an upstanding player, one that works tirelessly to be a better pitcher and an off-the-field presence in the community. I speak for many when I say I hope that he can figure it out and have a comeback very soon.

Capitol Baseball will continue to update all ye dedicated readers on Lannan's progress.

Lannan Heads North; Detwiler Ready?; Zimmermann Ahead of Schedule

John Lannan's season wasn't quite what everyone expectedfrom the guy who was the Opening Day starter in 2010. No one expected a 10-0 start and a 0.73 ERA, but they expected a stable start every 5 days. In the end, Lannan went through some sort of elbow issues in the first half of the season, but all in all, he just was unable to locate his pitches. He simply couldn't get it done. It's something you just hate to see from a guy like Lannan, who showed lots of promise both on and off the field.

Unfortunately, Lannan's 2-5 record and 5.76 ERA just wasn't enough, and he was demoted to AA Harrisburg today. A move that 2 weeks ago, I would have told you would never ever happen. But failing to make it 5 innings in 2 consecutive starts and sporting almost a 6.00 ERA wouldn't have saved anyone in baseball halfway through the season. Joining the Nats will be RHP Joel Peralta, who has been a reliever for his entire career in Kansas City, Anaheim, and Colorado.

One last thing to encourage Nats fans, though, is that LHP Ross Detwiler has been taken from the 60-Day DL and is now in the rotation down in Harrisburg. With Peralta's promotion, that leaves the Nationals with two options as I can see it for the rotation.

1. Go with a 4 man rotation for a little while. They have a day off on Thursday, so it's possible.
2. Pull Miguel Batista from the bullpen and give him a spot start or two until you figure out who the 5th man is.
   

More than likely, option 1 is the answer in this situation. Detwiler's addition to the Harrisburg rotation probably means he'll be ready for the big soon, and after another start or two down there, he will probably join the rotation in DC. With Lannan in the minors, it'll be replacing a lefty with a lefty. Now is the time to see if Detwiler is the real deal, as he was the 6th overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft.

I was surprised that Peralta was promoted, considering Manager Jim Riggleman said this past week that Craig Stammen had a shot at making the bullpen in DC. But it wasn't to be, yet at least. There are still many huge decision to be made in DC over the next few weeks with one big pitcher coming off of the DL and 3 big starters (Wang, Zimmermann, Marquis) schedule to come off before the season ends.

Detwiler will be ready very soon, and so will Jordan Zimmermann. The question with Zimmermann will be whether he comes out of the bullpen or if he joins the rotation, and when. Even by Mike Rizzo's account, J. Zimm is way ahead of schedule, and by all accounts he will NOT be rushed back. It is encouraging, though that Zimmermann was in uniform throughout the weekend series with the White Sox and threw a simulated game of 35 pitches on Friday before the game. Maybe the organization knows something we don't.

The games haven't been very exciting lately, but one thing is for sure. The promotions and demotions will be fast and furious over the next few months, and with only about 40 days until the trade deadline, the Nationals front office may be more interesting to watch than the team over the next few weeks. Stay tuned...

Nats Take Game 1 from NL-leading Padres

Well, after a weird start to Game 1 against San Diego, John Lannan had a great outing for a 5-3 win. When Padres Manager Bud Black submitted his lineup card on Friday evening, he listed Adam Russell as the starting pitcher. The problem with that? Well Adam Russell had just been sent down to AAA Portland earlier in the day. It was Clayton Richard who was supposed to get the start. The Nats officially protested the game; the umpires accepted, which meant if the Nats had lost, the league would have reviewed the game.

It wasn't a problem though, largely because of a 7 inning outing for the Nats starter Lannan, now 2-2. It was the first time any Nats starter had gone 7 or more innings since May 9th. On Friday, Lannan got 12 ground ball outs on only 88 pitches and 1 earned run. Good old fashioned Lannan ball. The Nats are surely thrilled to have the old-school New Yorker back. The Nats are now 23-0 when leading after 8 innings. That's a stat that you like to see from your team. Here's the breakdown:

The offense was almost non-existent for either team until the top of the 4th when Josh Willingham crushed a 3-run homer to deep center field off Clayton Richard (the actual starter). In the top of the 7th, with Richard still pitching, Ian Desmond went deep to left for his 4th HR on the year. This put the Nats up 4-1, and the Nats never looked back... almost.

In the bottom of the 7th, the first base ump missed a call on what almost became a crucial play in the game. Adam Dunn clearly tagged out Oscar Salazar in a not-so-close play at first. The Nats should have had their first out there. That play translated into a run for San Diego, making the game 4-2.

In the 8th, Clippard came in and looked great. His fastball was dancing all over. The kid needed some time off, which he's gotten lately. Unfortunately, it's because the Nats haven't been winning as many games, but Clippard looks like he's gotten enough rest to be effective here for a bit.

The Nats got a 5th run in the 9th after Adam Dunn laced a double to right center that would have been a home run in basically any other ball park. Adam Kennedy came in to pinch run, got moved over to 3rd, and Ian Desmond laid down a beautiful bunt for hit on a squeeze to score Kennedy, making the lead 5-2. Here's where the game got stressful.

Good ol' Matty Capps came in to attempt a save and looked a bit rattled to start once again, like he did in his first blown save of the game. He let a guy on first to start, and then Desmond, after a great game offensively, had 1 official error early in the game, and a costly non-error error in the 9th going for a spectacular play that got no outs with 2 men on base. Capps then continuously pitched away to Jerry Hairston, Jr. and allowed a slow rolling single, and the bases were loaded with no outs.

After he was put in this situation, Capps started to get squeezed. No strikes anywhere. So then Capps was forced to throw it over the plate for an RBI single, making the game 5-3 with the bases still loaded. Then Capps had to face the very dangerous (and significantly thinner) Matt Stairs. After leaving pitch after pitch up in the zone, Capps throws a breaking ball down the middle of the plate that Stairs just looked at, probably in awe that he had the audacity to throw it, for the 1st out. Then Capps struck out Venable for the 2nd out. To end the game, David Eckstein grounded out to Zimm. A good old fashioned Capps style save. Which he apologized for at the end of the game saying, "I'm sorry to make it interesting." Class act.

One bad note for the game, Maxwell looked terrible once more. He was swinging at bad pitches and never really made solid contact. He was (one more time) sent down to AAA Syracuse to make room for a pitcher, J.D. Martin, who will start today against the Padres in place of the injured Scott Olsen.

How Lannan Got His Groove Back

Today, John Lannan came back strong and looked healthy in a Washington Nationals 4-3 victory over the Baltimore Orioles 2 games 1, and the Nats are now 23-22 on the season. Lannan was in line to get the win until Matt Capps got his first blown save of the season in the bottom of the 9th inning with 2 outs when the O's tied the game.

Lannan came into the game laboring in his last 4 starts, giving up a total of 15 runs. The Nats only won 1 of those 4 games in a 14-6 trouncing of the Rockies back on May 13th. Today's John Lannan looked like a completely different pitcher. He had a rough top of the first, giving up 2 hits to start the game. He then settled in, only allowing one of those runs to score on a sacrifice grounder to Guzman. Those were the only 2 hits that Lannan gave up in his 5 1/3 innings of work.

A two hit appearance that gets you one out into the 6th inning is nothing to scoff at for a guy that was hurt only a few starts ago. Additionally, his ratios are getting better. He had almost twice as many ground ball outs (which is Lannan's bread and butter) as he did fly ball outs. It's good to see Lannan back in Lannan-esque form.

Drew Storen came on and pitched 1 2/3 innings in relief of Lannan, and got his first career professional hit in his first career at bat in the majors OR minors on a line drive laced into left center. It was amazing, and the crowd gave him a great ovation after the hit. I hope he got the ball. This kid is a stud worth watching. Also, did you know that Drew Storen is a switch hitter? Wow.

After a solid 8th by Burnett and Clippard, Capps came into the game in search of his 17th save on the year. Instead, he got his first blown save all season. As disappointed as I was to see Capps blow the save, it's remarkable that it took 17 save attempts and 45 games to get his first blown save. Now, the club will have to see if he can rebound from the disappointment.

One person will make that rebound much, much easier. Josh Willingham worked some extra inning magic in the bottom of the 10th inning with a walk off home run against the O's sidewinder Cla Meredith. The Nats got to this point because of a great top of the 10th by Doug Slaten.

This Nationals team, as bloggers and team reporters have said time and time again, continues to display remarkable confidence on the field that no matter what curveball is thrown at them (cliché intended), they can and will rebound. I don't think that more than 1/4 of the way through the season anyone can say that this is a fluke anymore. The Nats are excited to be contending, and the results show. From Lannan's great rebound after some bad starts and an injury, to Drew Storen meeting and exceeding his expectations (which were already lofty), to the offense's ability to get clutch hits. Most notably Josh Willingham. The Nats are here to stay as a team hovering around .500 this year. It's going to be fun to watch the remaining 3/4 of the season.

So, what's up with Lannan?

Alright, so this morning, you'll inevitably read a lot about how John Lannan has completely lost his effectiveness and his stuff, that he's not going to get it back, that he's washed up and his pitching style has caught up to him. Some people may believe this, some people may just want to use Lannan as a scape goat after an ugly 9-3 loss, some people may be struggling for a story on a rainy off-day in Washington, DC. I'm going to take the sabermetrics of Lannan's decline and say to everyone, I think you're wrong.

I'm not going to make a prediction that Lannan will have a huge comeback next week and his ERA will plummet and his ground ball rate will get better, and it will be a happily ever after story. Because I'm not convinced that is possible because of what we've seen from John so far in 2010. He's looked uncomfortable, missing spots from Nieves all season, and leaving balls up in the zone (which he has never done in his career). If I were only looking at sabermetric stats, and articles like this one on FanGraphs, I would think this was by far John Lannan's worst statistical year ever. Well, let's cut to the basics and look at some more conventional stats.

For the sake of argument, I'm going to take look at Lannan's two full seasons (2008, 2009), not his partial 2007 season. Let's look at ERA first:

• 2008: 3.91
• 2009: 3.88
• Current 2010: 6.34

Yes, this is much higher this year. I concede the point that Lannan is giving up more earned runs this year, on average, than he did in the previous two. But remember, this is after 4 starts. Not an end of the year stat. Let's breakdown a few other bits:

• HR/9: 2008: 1.1; 2009: 1.0; 2010: 1.1
• BB/9: 2008: 3.6; 2009: 3.0; 2010: 5.0
• SO/9: 2008: 5.8; 2009: 3.9; 2010: 3.3

As we can see, Lannan's home runs given up has stayed about the same, while his walks have increased dramatically, and his strikeouts have decreased marginally. You can easily argue that 2009 was, statiscally, John Lannan's best year of his career. (Again, we're comparing to FOUR starts in 2010.) Coming into this year as the "established ace" of the rotation, the rest of the MLB may have simply figured Lannan out. But I think the better argument is that he's beating himself on the mount.

Watching Lannan last season, it was fun to watch him pitch to contact with ground ball after ground ball. Unfortunately, our defense was so bad, it's remarkable that he ended up as good as he did. This year, we have put a competent defense behind him, and Lannan can't seem to get it over the plate. And when he does, he's throwing meatballs up in the zone. (See: H. Ramirez home run and C. Ross double off the wall yesterday against the Marlins.)

The fact remains, this Nationals team is still building, and Lannan was supposed to be one of the consistent staples. He hasn't been, and so he's getting the blame. Maybe deservedly so, maybe not. But let me say one more time, Lannan has still pitched in just 4 games. This is a ridiculously small body of work, considering Lannan probably has somewhere around 150 more innings to pitch this season if his career holds true. He hasn't been hurt in two seasons, after all. Scott Olsen's stats didn't look much better after his first two starts stat-wise (although he had more Ks). But he's worked himself out.

Like I said, I'm not going to make the "bold prediction" and say that John Lannan will come back next time against the Marlins this weekend and pitch 9 innings of shut out ball. That would be stupid (though not impossible). But I am saying that we haven't seen the best of John Lannan this year, and I am confident in his next 15 starts, he will get better, not worse. This team has a the kind of drive this season that we haven't seen in the District in quite some time (see 2009 Redskins; 2010 playoff Caps; and 2010 Wizards). The Nationals want to win, and they want it bad. They finally got a taste of what it was like early this season, and they liked it far too much to let it go. John Lannan is no exception.

Bob Uecker & Analyzing the Current Nats Starters

I'm going to start this blog with the sincere comment of the day. Bob Uecker is going in for heart surgery today to repair a damaged aeortic valve. This condition is serious and may require a follow up procedure. Uecker will miss at least 3 months, but probably more. My thoughts are with Bob Uecker and his family, including the Milwaukee Brewers family. Uecker has been the radio guy for the Brewers for 40 years this season, and is one of the broadcasting faces of baseball. Brewers games won't be the same without his play-by-play. I may just make a point of watching "Major League" this weekend.

Now, back to the Nats:

It recently came across the wires that the Nats are going to shuffle up their starters a bit to spread out our two lefties in the order. Previously, Olsen had been 5th in the rotation, and Lannan 1st. Making back to back lefties in the rotation. Now Olsen has switched with Stammen after the off-day to put some distance between them. So now the rotation officially is:

1. John Lannan (LHP; 1-1; 5.53 ERA; 10 Ks)
2. Luis Atilano (RHP; 2-0; 2.25 ERA; 2 Ks)
3. Livan Hernandez (RHP; 3-1; 0.87 ERA; 10 Ks)
4. Scott Olsen (LHP; 1-1; 6.14 ERA; 14 Ks)
5. Craig Stammen (RHP; 1-0; 6.75 ERA; 9 Ks)

If you would have told me 30 days ago, as the team was leaving spring training, that this rotation would be producing the way that it has, I would have had some nasty words for you for getting my hopes up about the return of real baseball to DC. And I would have been eating my words.

My offensive and defensive rundown was extensive yesterday, so I won't be quite as extensive with these guys, because I've been talking about most of them (Atilano, Hernandez, Stammen) all season. So read ahead for my thoughts, including the first Stephen Strasburg mention of my blogging campaign.

You may look at the rotation, and say "whaaaat? Atilano is number 2 in the rotation? Why not Livan?" Well, the answer is simple, really. Atilano is a placeholder for Marquis while he's on the DL with "loose bodies" in his elbow. Although, if Atilano keeps pitching like this, who knows. The likelihood of that seems low, however. Other teams are starting to get more tape on Luis with every start, and at some point sooner than later, he's going to get blow up in a start. It's inevitable. It's a matter of how he recovers after that. Does he go back to hitting his spots are just throw meatballs down the middle? Time will tell.

Lannan is having a... well... a year. Some people out in the Natosphere are speculating that he's hurt because he's not pitching his best. Missing some spots, etc. The problem with a guy like Lannan is that he's a Greg Maddux style pitcher. You may say, "What the heck, Capitol Baseball guy, how is being like Maddux a bad thing?" Well, Maddux is obviously one of the best pitchers of this generation. A member of the horrifying Braves trio that was Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine in their prime. But Maddux was the best of the best location pitchers. He wasn't going to overpower you, but he was always going to hit his spots. When he didn't, he got lit up. And Lannan is missing spots, and giving up more solid hits than we, and the team, have come to expect from him. In my amateur opinion, John isn't hurt, he's just missing spots. Only time will prove me right or wrong.

Bringing up Garrett Mock was the wrong call by Rizzo and Co. on the Opening Day roster. Give them credit, however, because they fixed it quickly. Turns out that Mock may have been hurt as well. Which leads me to this point: come on, pitchers! Communicate with your trainers -- I'm looking at you Garrett, Jason Marquis, and Ross Detwiler. I know you're trying to make a mark on the team, but you'll make more of one when you finally pitch healthy, and you won't hurt the team nearly as much. Olsen should have been up all along; no reason a guy making $1 million for a 1 year deal should start in AAA. If you're gonna make the investment, give the guy the chance at least. They did, and it's been the right call so far.

Livan and Atilano have been covered extensively here in other blog posts, so I'll refer you to the archives to hear my thoughts on them.

Enjoy game one against the Marlins from Sun Life Stadium where Olsen will take on Ricky Nolasco. Should be another great early season game.

Nats Pitching Lets Team Drop Back to .500

Well, here we go again. The Nats first game at Wrigley last night was a cold one. The wind chill at times was literally freezing. Unfortunately, while the Nats bats were hitting well considering the wind blowing straight in from the outfield, it wasn't enough to beat Carlos Marmol, Carlos Silva, and the Cubs. Why? Pitching.

Yet again, John Lannan, the "ace" of the Nationals pitching rotation had a rough start and got better with time. I like Johnny quite a bit, for his personality and his resiliance. And I'd much rather have the New York kid have a rough first inning or two and still make it through 6 innings than the alternative of a strong 1 2/3 and a complete and utter breakdown after that. That said, only giving up 3 runs in 6 innings isn't the worst outing in the world, although John give up 5 walks. The wind was whipping around out there, but 5 BBs is an unacceptably high number from your starting pitcher; or any pitcher for that matter.

The breakdown really happens with the bullpen, as has been the consistent problem with the Nats for a few years now. While the bullpen is stronger this year with Capps, Clippard, and (kind of) Burnett, Brian Bruney (1-1) has been a Nationals bullpen disaster. Bruney has appeared in 10 games, and has walked at least one batter in all but 3 of them. One of them was a walk off bases loaded walk to end the game last night. On 4 pitches.

The Washington Nationals are paying Bruney $1.5 MILLION this year to be the "primary set up guy," although it's pretty easy to see why Tyler Clippard has actually taken over that role with his bottom basement 0.61 ERA and 19 Ks in 14 innings pitched. Clippard has shown more consistency and stamina in all of his outings. Clippard's paycheck? Just over the league minimum at $401,000.

The 2010 Nationals have proven that they are able to compete with the best of the best, when we get some sort of pitching (i.e. more than 5 innings from a starter and a bullpen performance where the "set-up" guy doesn't walk in the winning run) so maybe it's about time for the Lerner's and Mike Rizzo to find a way to get some consistent arms out in the 'pen to get this team competitive sooner rather than later.

Nats Travel to Play Inside the Brick Walls of Ivy

I hope to have a funny, and hopefully inappropriate Harry Caray reference for the series soon, but until then, use this to hold you over (complete with Portuguese subtitles, thanks YouTube).

After the extremely disappointing base running and stealing display over the last few games, Jim Riggleman has decided to put some good speed on the bookends of the lineup for his Nats today in Game 20 and for the first in a 3 game series vs. the Cubbies:

1. Nyjer Morgan, 8
2. Adam Kennedy, 5
3. Cristian Guzman, 4
4. Adam Dunn, 3
5. Hammer, 7
6. Pudge, 2
7. Ian Desmond, 6
8. Willy Taveras, 9
9. John Lannan, 1

Lannan is coming in to try and get a win after two consecutive no decisions, and Pudge is trying to keep up the best batting average in all of baseball hitting at the bottom of the batting order. Meanwhile, Nyjer Morgan looks to stay cocky and keep trying to steal more bases. While that statement probably sounds smug and like I'm mad at T. Plush, that couldn't be further from the truth. Nyjer's sheer presence on-base messes with pitchers, and if he all of a sudden gets cold on base and stops even attempting a steal, he becomes far less effective. So I say, Run, Nyjer, Run.

Lannan is going to have to pitch better than the 2-0 Carlos Silva and his almost-as-good-as-Livan 0.95 ERA. But there is plenty left to be desired in the people surrounding the Cubs. While it's early in the season, the Nationals are tied for 2nd in the NL East with a 10-9 record, while the Cubs are in 2nd in the NL Central with a less happy 9-10 record. If the Nats can keep moving with this above .500 baseball throughout this brief roadtrip, it would be a huge win for the clubhouse and for the fans that pay close attention. As May arrives, summer will be knocking and the sports fans in DC will be less caught up in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the Caps, and they will be more interested in the next sports season: baseball.

There's been a lot of concern about the low attendance considering the Nats' relative competence thus far in 2010. As I said, the Caps have taken over this city, and until they are knocked out or win Lord Stanley's Cup, the sports fans of this city will be caught up in that story. And once the NFL draft coverage is clubbed to death (I mean, it is the NFL, so give ESPN another 6 weeks or so to cover the draft stories), baseball will be the only sport people care about. If the Nationals are still flirting with .500 around that time, expect people to take notice. Fans and national media alike.

The Washington Nationals, a .500 ball club?

For the first time in nearly 5 seasons, the Washington Nationals are a consistent .500 baseball team. With their win tonight against the Colorado Rockies, the Nats succeeded in yet another comeback win with a decent outing by the starter, John Lannan (4 ER on 11 hits in 6 innings). While this isn't the best line in the world, it helped lead the Nats to another Curly W and push them a game above .500 (8-7). While Tyler Clippard (3-0) got the win for his 2 innings of scoreless, one-hit work, the Nationals have been a remarkable 8-0 when starters have gone 5 innings or more and 0-7 when the starter has failed to go 5 innings. An accident? I think not.

The Washington Nationals made huge strides in the off season to become a better all-around ball club. Here are just a few:

• Livan Hernandez: a machine in his own right, after two starts, an ERA of 0.00. One of them a complete game shut out. Statistically it doesn't get better in the NL right now for a starter.

• Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez: The "what the hell were you thinking" signing of the off-season. Everyone thought Pudge was washed up. Well, tell that to him, he's shown new life in 2010.
  

• Jason Marquis: I'm sure I wasn't the only one who was relieved to see Marquis put on the DL tonight. He was a great off-season acquisition. An All-Star pitcher, Marquis has had a rough start to 2010, but his move to the DL may show that he's been pitching hurt, and he can recover. If that's how he was pitching healthy, we'd be in real trouble. Once he comes back, he'll have to show he's worth the $7.5 million the Nats are paying him. If he doesn't, he's going to get kicked to the curb, and fast, once Stephen "Jesus" Strasburg gets called up.
  

• Matt Capps: The interesting closer selection that everyone ragged on for being too fat for a closer is now 7 for 7 in save opportunities.

Mike Rizzo and company knew what their weaknesses were, and went to fill the gaps as best they could. The Nats are now above .500 for the first time since late 2005 and for the first time since their move to Nationals Park. Yet, this team is still only drawing crowds of BARELY over 11,000. In a 41,888 seat stadium, it's hard hard to imagine that number being far above the season tickets sold. A sad display, indeed.

Here's hoping that this team can keep winning so the Nats can experience what the Washington Capitals have experienced in the last few seasons. The Caps went from filling half the seats at the Verizon Center to a sell out every game and a real following in the city. Maybe a winning season is just what the Nats need to get some butts in the seats and some excitement about baseball in DC for the first time since 2005.