Its inevitable. At some point in the 2012 season the Nats are going to need a player to come up from Triple A and give them a week, 2 weeks, a month of solid play in place of an injured player. In past years it has been a cavalcade of scrapheap vets and far-too-young boarderline prospects. Hopefully that will not be the case in 2012. I want to take a look at 1 player from each group on the field (SP, RP, IF, OF) who could be the first up from Syracuse in this situation.
Infield - I am going to go ahead and predict that Steve Lombardozzi doesn't make the 25 man roster out of spring training. It's not a matter of talent, I just think that the Nats brass feel he needs regular at-bats and time in the field. So if Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa go down with a nagging hammy or twisted ankle, look for Lombardozzi to get the call and split time with Mark Derosa at 2B/SS.
Outfield - Eury Perez. He is already on the 40 man roster and he is different than every outfielder the Nats currently have at or near the Major League level. He is beyond rangy, and he is quick footed. An outfield of Morse, Werth, Ankiel and Cameron could use a quick outfielder should one of them go down. He could also be first up if Adam LaRoche gets hurt (again) and we see a repeat of Morse at first.
Relief - I have a feeling that Ryan Mattheus is going to get left out in the cold (literally) after Spring Training and will be headed for Syracuse...in April. That makes him my choice for most likely to join the Pen. He is a talented relief pitcher and will definitely pitch some key innings for the Nats in 2012. It is also very possible that Davey's one right one left long man approach proves ineffective early on and Mattheus is called on to be an extra short reliever.
Starter - The hardest one to predict. I think Stras, Zim, Gio and Wang are safe. Its Lannan v Detwiler. Hard choice to make. Lannan has been loyal and the closest thing to a safe bet the Nats have had the last 3 years, he deserves something in return. But doing that would basically be bailing out on a 1st round left hander who has shown flashes of greatness. I lean towards Lannan because I'm sentimental and I love his make-up, especially compared to Ross, who's confidence seems to be made of candy-glass. My pick, Cory Van Allen. He has been with the organization for a while (2005) and has made slow and steady progress. Maya is not an option and with Peacock and Milone gone, the bulk of the Nats' SP prospects are low level.
A team can sign, trade for and expect growth from any number of players, but many times a season is made or broken by the influx of talent and energy an emergency call-up provides. Are the Nats in a better position than previous years? The loss of Peacock and Milone wasn't ideal in regards to minor league depth, but there are still bullets in that gun. However the Nats are not in a position to survive multiple injuries at similar positions in 2012, not that it is entirely possible to plan for that sort of contingency.
Bottom line: the Nats can deal with an injury or two in the infield and in the bullpen, one in the outfield, but any starter going down for any serious length of time could spell disaster for the season.
Cory Van Allen? You're joking right?
ReplyDeleteFirst since he still has an option Lannan likely ends up in Syracuse as veteran starting rotation reserve. Bradley Meyers (next to get the call given his pRAA from last year would be next.
There's also Craig Stammen and Tom Gorzelanny. There's your lefty-righty? Both can pitch in relief and start. Stammen could start in Syracuse but either way ...
And finally c'mon what team are you watching? The next best pRAA after 1. Tommy Milone, 2. Brad Peacock is Danny Rosenbaum who will be in AA Harrisburg. Its almost a sure bet that Rosenbaum, a lefty, would be the next called if Solis isn't ... if his injuries linger. Either way I would be on Rosenbaum. Plus Matt Buschmann.
This all happens WAAAAAAY before Cory Van Allen?
What team are you watching again Sean?
Oh I forgot to mention a guy with a 22.8 pRAA last year at age 27: Erik Arneson. He had a break out year as a starter in AA Harrisburg. Have to assume he is in the Syracuse rotation. He's way ahead of Cory Van Allen.
ReplyDeleteWAAAAAAAAYYY ahead? Right?
So in Syracuse (and we're assuming Brad Meyers gets returned) you'll have
1. John Lannan (he doesn't pitch relief and Johnson wants Detwiler to start)
2. Craig Stammen (if he doesn't stick as right handed long relief)
3. Brad Meyers (10.3 pRAA in AA last year decent in short exposure to AAA)
4. Yunesky Maya( he has a contract)
5. Matt Buschmann (he had a positive pRAA last year in AA/AAA)
6. Between AA/AAA with a 22.9 pRAA last year: Danny Rosenbaum.
They actually would have better depth for the starting rotation this year than in 2010. Not so much 2011. Milone, Peacock, Meyers were pretty awesome. Of course with his uptick in velocity Rosenbaum could become pretty awesome.
7. Sammy Solis he too could be ready ... he'll likely start in Potomac though.
8. Matt Purke
Ooops missed him again!
ReplyDelete1. John Lannan (he doesn't pitch relief and Johnson wants Detwiler to start)
2. Craig Stammen (if he doesn't stick as right handed long relief)
3. Brad Meyers (10.3 pRAA in AA last year decent in short exposure to AAA)
4. Erik Arneson (22.9 pRAA in Harrisburg exclusively starting)
5. Yunesky Maya( he has a contract)
6. Matt Buschmann (he had a positive pRAA last year in AA/AAA)
7. Between AA/AAA with a 22.9 pRAA last year: Danny Rosenbaum.
8. Sammy Solis A+/AA
9. Matt Purke A+/AA
Agreed with all your thoughts till you got to starter. I think the real point there is that the backup starter is more likely to come from the bullpen, not the minors. My guess is that at least 2 of gorzo, stammen and detwiler will be in the bullpen, and one of those guys will slide back into the starter role if necessary.
ReplyDelete