Monday, April 4, 2011

Vamos Ramos

You probably have seen by now that over the first 2 weeks of the season that our catchers will be splitting time 50/50. I have to say that this is a fantastic decision for the beginning of the season as it gives some love to the Future Hall of Famer while letting the young stud get some quality time behind the dish. Lets take a look at some of the projections for each player for the 2011 Season.

For this I am going to use the 2011 Marcel forecaster. On how this is calculated check out this snippet from their website, "It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor."

The age factor being the most crucial in this situation, especially considering the damaging nature of catching. So, with all that in mind, remember that these are just projections and they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Pudge 2011 Projection - .251 AVG. 426 AB. 20 2B. 7 HR. 45 RBI. .646 OPS. 19.7% K%.

Ramos 2011 Projection - .274 AVG. 241 AB. 14 2B. 6 HR. 24 RBI. .763 OPS. 18.3% K%.

One of the more interesting things with these individual projections is that this sees about a 2/3 + 1/3 split in playing time with Pudge taking the bulk of the catching duties. If anything, I see Ramos getting the lions share of play this year, especially because Flores in AAA appears to be healthy for the first time in years. I've said before that Pudge won't last but a few months in DC this year, as I expect him to be traded to a contender by June.

I would say that Ramos' projection would be pretty accurate in terms of AVG and OPS, spread his numbers out over 450 ABs and that puts him at about 25 Doubles, 11 HR, and about 45 RBI (though I think he goes over 50 RBI). Pudge won't see these many ABs and I don't believe that his average will break .250. Defensively? Pudge still has a cannon, but Ramos has all the raw tools needed to become an outstanding play-caller and field captain.

I am glad to see the Nats looking towards the future, at least in terms of one position. Next up? Bring Bernadina up.

(h/t to Dave Nichols for the Vamos Ramos hashtag)

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