Not-So-Great Expectations

This offseason sprang hope for fans of the Curly W. Moves were made to make the Nationals pitching staff one of the best in baseball, from starters to relievers. Rookies and young players now had yet another year of experience under their belts. Things were looking way up for this ballclub. The boys were ready to shock the world. Through the first month of the season there is absolutely no question that they have done just that.

Prior to a 4-game losing streak (1 against the Padres and 3 against the Dodgers), the Nationals were the talk of baseball and one of the best teams in the league.

Things, however, haven't been as rosy since the Nationals were 14-4 just 4 games ago. There is really only one reason for that, though it goes a bit deeper than simply the one issue - of course I am referring to the Nationals seemingly abysmal offense.

The pitching staff can allow 1 or 2 runs over the course of a week's worth of games is fantastic, but when the offense can't scratch together 2 or 3 runs to steal the ballgame is where the Nats are running into trouble. In the last 11 games (in which the Nats are 6-5), the Nationals have scored more than 3 runs only twice and won only one of those games. Their total runs scored over those games? 29 runs - or 2.6 runs/game. Any team would struggle to win ballgames when the offense just can't drive in runs.

We know the offense is bad (and that Rick Eckstein deserves to be fired), but the reason why it has been so bad is because of the sheer volume of injuries. We talked about it last week in this post and it has exacerbated since with Ryan Zimmerman actually going to the DL (when he was day-to-day and was expecting to play two days later) and then Mark DeRosa going to the DL with a mysterious Oblique injury. More injuries to some key players is going to negatively affect the offense all the time but with Morse already down? It's just salt in the wound.

To get a sense of how drastic things have gotten for the Nationals I dug back into the Capitol Baseball archive and found this gem from February of this year which included my prediction of the Nats lineup. It went as follows:
Ian Desmond - 6
Jayson Werth - 9
Ryan Zimmerman - 5
Adam LaRoche - 3 (yep, I was ahead of the curve)
Michael Morse - 7
Rick Ankiel - 8
Danny Espinosa - 4
Wilson Ramos - 2

Now for comparison's sake, let's take a look at yesterday afternoon's lineup:
Ian Desmond - 6 (4 for his last 44)
Stephen Lombardozzi - 5 (1 for his last 17)
Danny Espinosa - 4 (Yes, that is a guy with a .213/.308/.280 slashline hitting 3rd)
Adam LaRoche - 3 (Nats MVP thus far)
Xavier Nady - 9 (The Nats 6 hitter has a .140/.173/.220 slashline and a -0.7 WAR which is the worst in the National League) [Oh, by the way, he didn't have a job before two weeks before the season cause he is so bad but he is now starting every game for the Nationals]
Tyler Moore - 7 (Just called up)
Bryce Harper - 8 (19 years old and has a better eye than probably anyone on the team)
Jesus Flores - 2 (Backup Catcher)

Honestly. I'm not kidding at all when I say this. This is a AAA baseball team with Adam LaRoche rehabbing an injury. Are any of these players good enough or ready to be on a major league roster right now?

The answer is no.

How many players did I get right? 2. With a 3rd that is still in the lineup. Werth - out. Zim - out. Morse - out. Ank - not in the lineup. Ramos - struggling. Espinosa hitting 3rd???

Strasburg can lead the NL in WAR all he wants, but if the Nationals are putting out a AAA lineup it isn't going to matter. He can throw a 10 inning No-Hitter but if he can't get any run support it really isn't going to matter.

Thing's aren't going to get any better until the team gets Morse and Zimmerman back healthy. Then, and only then, can we all witness what the Nationals are truly capable of. But for now, hope that the Nats can scratch out two runs before the other team does.

It will get better. It really will. Keep the faith.

Live Chat: Bryce Harper's MLB Debut with Nats Talk On The Go

Today is the biggest day for the Washington Nationals since Stephen Strasburg made his MLB debut on June 8, 2010. Baseball's top prospect, Bryce Harper, will debut in left field for the Nats tonight against Chad Billingsley and the Los Angeles Dodgers. To make it even better, Strasburg will start for the Nats tonight, too. It's going to be a DC baseball extravaganza, and we're going to cover it all live.

The game starts at 9:10 pm EDT, and the guys from the podcast Nats Talk On The Go will hop on with you about a half hour before that to start fielding your questions and chat with you about Harper, Strasburg, and everything Nats. Join us for some fun.

The Sky Is Falling

The Nationals history with injuries is brutal. I know it. You know it. Hopefully one day Lee Kuntz and his staff can know it too. If you are a listener to Nats Talk on the Go, you have heard Joe and I harp time and time again on the Nationals incredible proclivity for injuries. And now it seems as if the Nationals are bitten yet again by the injury bug.

So far this offseason/Spring we have seen a myriad of debilitating injuries that have been completely mis-managed:

- Sammy Solis: According to reports, Solis reported that he was feeling elbow pain near the end of his Arizona Fall League stint but it was decided by doctors that he would be fine with a "special throwing program". Later in the Winter it was announced that he was "doing well" in his recovery from elbow pain. Fast forward to Spring Training, after his first bullpen session it was discovered that he did indeed tear his UCL and needed Tommy John Surgery.

- Michael Morse: In early March Morse strained his Right Lat Muscle and was immediately listed as day-to-day - meaning that he might be ready soon. Not so much. When Morse was finally ready to start playing again, he actually wasn't and immediately re-injured his Lat. Rizzo himself admitted that "we tried to get him ready as quick as we could". Now the slugger and heart of the lineup is in the middle of a six-week no-baseball-activity shutdown.

- Drew Storen: This Spring, Drew Storen was pitching incredibly well until a bout of elbow injury hit him pretty good. Immediately after the soreness Nationals doctors decided that it was simply inflammation and prescribed rest for the closer. Once again, the Nationals training staff thought he was ready so they had him pitch on a mound. Days later, Storen was under the knife to remove bone chips in the fireballer's elbow. How a professional training staff can miss bone chips floating in an elbow baffles my mind.

- Ryan Zimmerman: What is there to say. The Nationals Face of the Franchise was scratched from Saturday's game at the last second (forcing customers to watch Mark DeRosa in the 3-hole) with right shoulder tightness - though this is not the same shoulder that hampered Zimmerman in 2008. The release during the game said that Zimmerman wasn't concerned and that he should be fine to play Tuesday. Well, last night was Tuesday and instead of Nationals fans watching Zimmerman man 3rd until the wee hours of the morning, everyone was waiting for the results of Zimmerman's MRI (while watching DeRosa hit 3rd again).

That's 4 players who went from simply day-to-day style injuries to 3 players missing significant time and 1 player waiting on the results of an MRI.

There have been serious miscalculations with all of these (and more) injuries from the Nationals training staff. Something has got to give.

How long do you think Zimmerman will be out? Sound off in the comments!

Nats Talk On The Go: Episode 17

This week's Nats Talk On The Go episode is full of positive stuff, including lots of wins, a continuously impressive pitching staff, and some surprisingly impressive offensive numbers from a few key players. Unfortunately, we also have to talk about the offensive reality of an inability to drive in runs and the continued effect of injuries on the team. If you can't stream it below, subscribe on iTunes or download it here.

More Fun With Pitching Prowess

As we have talked about on this blog last week and in the latest edition of Nats Talk on the Go (available on iTunes!), this Nationals pitching staff is really good at their jobs. And it doesn't just extend to starters, but more on that in a little bit.

Anyone that has been here for a while knows that I am a huge stat fiend, in that I love finding obscure stats that either tell a story or don't mean a hill of beans. It's fun. And this is one of those blog entries.

So sit tight and enjoy the ride.

Let's start with something that we discussed last week, Bill James Game Score. Everyone here knows Bill James (at least pretends to) as the stat guru behind Moneyball; the book, not the incredible Aaron Sorkin film.

Here is the basic formula:

1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add 1 point for every out recorded.
3. Add 2 points for every inning completed after the 4th.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for every earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for every unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for every walk.
9. Done.

That's it. Pretty simple stuff. All told, the highest possible (9 inning) game score would be a 114 - with Kerry Wood's 20 Strikeout game in 1998 being the closest for a 9 inning game at 105.

Now that all of that nonsense is out of the way, let's see how the Nationals Starters fare on the National League Leaderboard so far (Top 50 Performances - there are some ties):

#2 - Edwin Jackson - 4/14 vs. Reds - 87

#9 - Gio Gonzalez - 4/12 vs. Reds - 80

#10 - Gio Gonzalez - 4/17 vs. Astros - 79

#17 - Stephen Strasburg - 4/11 vs. Mets - 74

#31 - Ross Detwiler - 4/10 vs. Mets - 68

#31 - Jordan Zimmermann - 4/13 vs. Reds - 68

#31 - Jordan Zimmermann - 4/18 vs. Houston - 68

#35 - Stephen Strasburg - 4/5 vs. Cubs - 67

For those of you scoring at home, that is 8 Nationals performances on the Top 50 Pitching Performances so far. Eight. The next closest team is the Phillies, with 5 after Cliff Lee's 10 Inning masterpiece last night.

We aren't done yet though.

Let's take a look at WAR so far in 2012.

Your National League Leader in Pitching WAR? Gio Gonzalez with 0.8. So far that is a .267 WAR/start - averaged out to a full season? 8.5+

Who is second on the National League Pitchig WAR Leaderboard? Stephen Strasburg with 0.7.

Jordan Zimmermann, not to be outdone, spun a terrific start and now places 5th in the NL in WAR - right behind Gio and Strassy with a 0.6.

Not to be left out in the cold, there a few relievers that want to be invited to the party.

Craig Stammen is currently tied for 3rd in WAR (0.3) for National League Relievers, behind Aroldis Chapman and Bryan Shaw.

Tyler Clippard is right behind him, tied for 7th with a 0.2 WAR.

As a team? The Nationals Pitching WAR of 3.4 of twice that of the 2nd place teams (the Mets and Cardinals). While also leading handily in K/9, FIP, xFIP, HR/9, ERA, SIERA, and BAA (Batting Average Against).

Phew.

Yes, I know that it is terribly early and it isn't very likely that Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg will post 8+ Wins Above Replacement throughout an entire season. But I have been feeling pessimistic about sports lately, due the fact that I have suffered losing for so long I am just waiting for the other shoe to drop. So this is my attempt to break through that fog through Sample Size Alert stats.

Let's just enjoy the show while it lasts!

Nats Talk On The Go: Episode 16

This week, we talk about the Washington Nationals' prodigious pitching and their awful offense. Well, maybe it wasn't quite as awful as you may think. We spend a lot of time both praising and criticizing Ian Desmond, and we talk about about Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth, too.

Offensive Offense and Prodigious Pitching

The hometown Nationals are off to their best start since baseball arrived in DC at 5-2. There are a ton of reasons why the Nationals are getting the job done (the Pitching Staff, LaRoche, Desmond) but there is an alarming trend that should scare the pants off of Nats fans.

The sheer lack of hitting with Runners in Scoring Position. More commonly known as RISP.

Let's take a quick gander at the Nationals effectiveness game-by-game with RISP:

- Yesterday - 3-2 win vs. Reds - 2 for 7 - LaRoche and Desmond with the hits

- April 11 - 4-0 win vs. Mets - 1 for 14 - Flores with the hit

- April 10 - 6-2 win vs. Mets - 4 for 14 - Werth (2), Bernadina, and Ramos with the hits

- April 9 - 4-3 loss vs. Mets - 2 for 9 - LaRoche with both hits

- April 8 - 4-3 loss vs. Cubs - 2 for 5 - LaRoche and Desmond with the hits

- April 7 - 7-4 win vs. Cubs - 3 for 5 - Bernadina, Tracy, and Lombardozzi with the hits

- April 6 - 2-1 win vs. Cubs - 1 for 7 - Desmond with the hit

For those of you scoring that home, that's a whopping 15 for 61 since the season started and only 7 for 35 in the past three games.

To put it another way - the Nationals BRS% (Base Runner Scoring Percentage) is 3rd worst in all of baseball with 10%. Meaning only 10% of Nationals base runners are scoring.

And while the offense struggles to get runs across the plate, the Pitching Staff is showing exactly what they are made of.

The last three starting pitching lines for the Nationals are as follows:

- Gio - 7 IP. 2 H. 0 R. 0 ER. 0 BB. 7 K. Game Score - 80

- Strasburg - 6 IP. 3 H. 0 R. 0 ER. 3 BB. 9 K. Game Score - 74

- Detwiler - 5 IP. 2 H. 0 R. 0 ER. 1 BB. 6 K. Game Score - 68

This is absolutely a case of "anything you can do, I can do better". Detwiler pitches a gem, Strasburg ups the ante and Gio ups it again by posting the 7th best MLB pitching performance of the season thus far (per Game Score).

I know that it's still early in the season (Sample Size Alert!), but if the offensive and pitching trends continue, I think we are going to be looking at a lot of 2-1 games... Get the heart meds ready...