Tip Your Caps to Capps

As we prepare for the All-Star Game this evening, it only seems fitting that a Nats blog should write about the Nats only ASG representative: Matt Capps.

This season Capps has the 3rd most saves in the NL (23) and has been basically automatic in every appearance. He has a tendency to give you a mild heart murmur every once in a while, but he's blown only 4 saves all season.

If you look back at Capps' career, it's obvious that this season is by far his best ever. The only time he's had more than 23 saves in a full season was last year with Pittsburgh. He had 27 all year in 2009 and posted an atrocious 5.80 ERA. It's safe to say that Capps will exceed that level in 2010. But will it be with the Washington Nationals?

It's hard to tell what the Nats front office thinks about this idea at this point, since most trade rumors are focusing on Dunn and Willingham. But Matt Capps' trade value will never be higher than it is today. He's an All-Star for the first time in his career, he's sporting an ERA just over 3.00. He's pitching with purpose as a guy who was dumped by the team that drafted him.

With any contender that is interested in Capps, he would almost certainly not be a closer barring a late season injury to that team's closer. He is a closer with the Nats because they needed someone to hold a place for Drew Storen. With another organization, he could be an above average setup guy that helps take a team deep into the post-season. The Nats shouldn't balk at this opportunity, especially if they're able to land another strong pitcher. The problem is, contenders aren't going to be willing to trade away a strong player in return for Capps.

So what say you, Capitol Baseballers? Is it time to pass the torch to Storen this year since the Nats aren't playoff bound? Should they hold on to Capps as the closer of the near future and leave Storen to that task in a few years?

I tend to think you get whatever you can for him, even though I really like him, because his numbers show he may be far outperforming what he is actually capable of. I await your comments, and enjoy the festivities tonight!

Feeling down after the first half of 2010? Here's why you shouldn't feel so bad...

On Sunday, the Washington Nationals ended the first half of their season in a very, very familiar position. Last place in the NL East. In their 6 seasons in DC, the Nats have spent the last 5 in last place with 50 or more losses at the All-Star Break. Number of Nats losses at the All-Star break by season:

2010: 50
2009: 61
2008: 59
2007: 52
2006: 52
2005: 36

The obvious exception is the Nats magical 2005 run, when they were in 1st place in the East with 52 wins before they imploded in the 2nd half. But just look at the losses above. The Nats were the closest to breaking the 50 loss barrier than they had been since 2005, and compared to the last two first halves under Manny Acta, baseball fans in DC should be thrilled.

It is easy to be disappointed, especially after the Nats promise at the beginning of the season, but while everyone was excited, most knew that the team would come down to earth eventually. And they did just that. Let's talk about a few specifics about the team ended the first half:

Bullpen: While the Nats are sending closer Matt Capps to the ASG this year, other aspects of the pen are a bit concerning. Certainly, this bullpen is a leaps and bounds better than the 2009 barely AAA quality staff that the Nats had there last season. Clip and Save has become "Watch Clippard Implode while Capps loses a save opportunity because he gets no support in front of him" very quickly. Since June 25th, Clippard has given up a run in every outing but two of them, and gave up 4 runs in 2 appearances. Not encouraging from your set up guy. The Nats may have to hold off on trading Capps, even though his value is sky high right now, if they plan on winning many close games in the 2nd half. Even if Storen is ready for the closers role, doesn't look like the setup guy is as ready as many thought.

Starting Pitchers: Stephen. Strasburg. And... I think I'm done with this category.

No seriously though, Strasburg has obviously been the story of the 1st half for the Nats in all aspects of the game. He, alone, has gotten the Nats onto the national stage this season, something that they had sorely lacked in their short existence. Livan Hernandez has had a resurgent year, despite his rough outing on Sunday to end the first half. He has a 3.37 ERA before the break and is 6-5.

Meanwhile, J.D. Martin has come out of nowhere to post a similar 3.35 ERA. He could be an important part of the 2nd half. And then there's the what-ifs: Jordan Zimmermann (Strasburg before there was Strasburg) is scheduled back this summer, just 12 months after Tommy John surgery. Ross Detwiler is progressing and could be back soon after the All-Star break. That will be helpful to help get Atilano (4.85 ERA) and Stammen (5.79 ERA) out of the starting rotation and either to the bullpen or to the minors, where they seem to belong. There is promise here.

Offense: Zimmerman. Dunn. Willingham. No matter what your neighborhood baseball fanatic says, this among the best 3-4-5 combos in baseball.

Zimmerman, the best 3rd basemen in baseball who did not make the All-Star team, is sporting a .294 average, an OBP of .383, is slugging .526, and has hit 16 home runs this year. Behind him, Adam Dunn is tied for 1st in the NL in home runs with 22, is 2nd in slugging, and is 3rd in OPS. These stats make him one of the best offensive 1st basemen in baseball. Josh Willingham is 3rd in the NL in OBP with a staggering .411, and is in the top 10 in OPS. He is barely a liability in the field, and his production provides Dunn superb protection.

Unfortunately for the Nats, there are just under 3 weeks until the trade deadline. In all likelihood, Rizzo, Kasten, and Co. are looking to be sellers, not buyers, this season. Fans just have to hope that they don't end up selling Dunn or Willingham. When you get two top quality offensive players who both continue to express how much they would like to stay in DC, a minuscule baseball market thus far, you don't let that go.

I could have gone on and on, and I may still do that over the next few days while the Nats have a few days off in favor of the break. But more than likely, I will recharge my batteries to prepare for the 2nd half to keep Capitol Baseball going strong. Enjoy watching big guys kill the baseball tonight in the Derby and the Midsummer Classic tomorrow! I appreciate the increase in readership lately, I hope you all will join me for the 2nd half.

Ryan Zimmerman Is An All-Star

Last night, MLB Network announced that Cincinnati Reds 1B Joey Votto would be the final vote selection for the 2010 All-Star Game in Anaheim. Originally, I was going to write a scathing post about the the voting process, how Ryan Zimmerman should have been selected, that Zimmerman's numbers were much better than the rest of the people at his position, especially compared to Votto's elite competition at 1st base. That post quickly became impossible, as it's simply not true.

Joey Votto is hitting .314 with a .417 OBP and is slugging at a staggering .595 rate. He ranks #1 among all NL first basemen in these 3 categories. Better than Pujols, better than Howard, better than Gonzalez. So then you really have to wonder, why wasn't Votto selected before the final vote when he is the best player thus far in 2010? It's not like he's even playing for a bad team; he's playing for the #1 team in the NL Central. But I digress...

Ryan Zimmerman is the best all around 3rd basemen in the NL, and quite possibly in baseball. David Wright is a quality 3B, and Rolen is having a great season as an older player, but the fact remains that Zimmerman is the reigning Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner. Unfortunately for Zimm, he plays for a Washington Nationals team that's in last place in its division. And has been for most of the team's short history. It's also team that, besides Stephen Strasburg references, barely gets acknowledged by local, let alone national, media. So although Zimmerman is 2nd in on-base percentage and 3rd in slugging percentage among qualifying 3rd basemen, he was left off of the list for Omar Infante, a utility player for the Atlanta Braves. That's right. A utility player.

I would like to be outraged by this development, but I'm simply not surprised. The Washington Nationals front office didn't exactly do an ideal job getting out the vote for any Nationals players this year. I saw ushers passing out ballots once all season. Meanwhile, in Baltimore, ushers were passing out ballots to everyone in the seats.... The Nats got outshined by the worst team in baseball. But in all reality, it probably wouldn't have mattered. When you have an average paid attendance of barely 20,000, you're not going to compete with teams like the Yankees and the Phillies that have average attendance over 45,000. That's more seats than exist at Nationals Park.

So 2011 is another year, and maybe if the Nationals are respectable this year and get the dream rotation that Boswell wrote about, the team will be visible nationally, and more Nats players will get a serious chance at making the All-Star team. Guys like Zimmerman, Dunn (RE-SIGN HIM!), Willingham, and possibly even Strasburg could make a run. But until then, let's hope that Matt Capps can help the National League win a game that they hasn't won since 1996. That game was hosted by the Philadelphia Phillies... at Veterans Stadium... and the MVP of the game was Mike Piazza. It's time to start a new baseball legacy for the NL... one from this millennium.

Re-evaluating Desmond

So, I've gotten more comments (both on and off the blog) about this week's Ian Desmond posting than I expected, and I thought I should re-evaluate the question. So here we go. Should the Nats bench Ian Desmond?

I acknowledge that I was inordinately harsh on Desi this week. (Especially since my fiancee swoons over him.) I simply expect better of MLB players than throwing balls away. A booted ball happens from time to time, especially with shortstops that tend to field more balls than any other infielder, but throwing the ball away on an impossible double play is inexcusable.

To reiterate my point: In the 2009 season, no shortstop had more than 25 errors. The entire year. Nats 2009 starting shortstop Cristian Guzman had 20 all season. Desmond has 21 before the All-Star break this season.

That said, I often forget that Ian Desmond is an official MLB rookie playing as a starter in one of the hardest fielding positions in baseball. He is working through his errors by making more deliberate decisions games after he commits errors.

I also must say that, upon further research, undersold his hitting ability in my last post. Among National League shortstops this season, Desmond is top 5 in batting average, slugging percentage, and home runs. If you consider his stats against both AL and NL shortstops, he remains is in the top 10 in the same 3 categories.

I want to acknowledge a few different people, like the anonymous "Nats Fan" yesterday, bdrube and the notorious Mac today, and others that I've spoken with, that piqued my interested and pushed me to re-evaluate my feelings on Ian. It turns out, I was wrong. You all were right.

Ian Desmond should remain a starter for the rest of the season barring a major implosion. It is possible to make an argument that at least 21 errors at the All-Star break is an implosion, I did it yesterday. But it wouldn't be fair to a young man who is learning and trying to become a premier MLB shortstop. And his offensive stats clearly indicate that he has the ability to be just that.

So to everyone, please remember: I become a better writer, one who write less off the cuff posts about my daily frustrations, when I get comments from people like you. So please keep commenting. It makes the posts more enjoyable for everyone.

J.D. Martin's Strong Start

Let's start with the obvious stat from Wednesday night. For the first time in the history of Nationals Park, a player has hit 3 home runs in one game. That guy, fittingly, is Adam Dunn. (Soriano did it in RFK in 2006.) Dunn got his curtain call, and maybe a reminder to Rizzo and Kasten: Re-sign this guy!

Now let's go on to another great story of the night: J.D. Martin. J.D. Martin came into this game 0-4. Talk about a deceptive, meaningless stat. If you only look an inch further, Martin hadn't gotten more than 2 runs of run support in any of his 4 decisions. Well, tonight Martin got some run support, and as much as the bullpen tried to give it away, they couldn't do it. Martin got the win.

After 7 starts, J.D. Martin has posted a 3.35 ERA; he's struck out 26 batters and has only walked 5; he's gone 5 or more inning in 6 of his 7 starts. It's easy to look at wins and losses and say, "wow, that guy's a bad pitcher," and I've been guilty of that. I was shocked to see that Craig Stammen was sent down to AAA before Martin to make room for Strasburg. Turns out, if I had really investigated the stats, even at the time, I would have been wrong.

I don't know that Martin can be a solid rotation guy for the Nats long term. Only time will tell. I can tell you one thing, though. Even if the stars align and Jordan Zimmermann is ready to be the number 2 guy next year behind Strasburg, and even if Ross Detwiler is ready to go, and even if Jason Marquis comes back to All-Star, 15 win form... wow... that's a lot of if's people. If, and it's a big if, J.D. Martin ends the season with the stats he has right now: an ERA in the 3s, and a 1 to 5 walk to strikeout ratio, he very well could end up in the Nationals rotation in 2011.

The Nats could only hope for a bottom of the rotation guy that could be as consistent as... J.D. Martin has been half way through this year.... Talk about lines you never thought you'd type.

It's Time To Bench Desmond

When the Nationals called up Ian Desmond at the start of the year as the starting shortstop, I was as excited as anyone. I was excited to see what the young kid could do. When Desmond started to struggle in the field, I supported Riggleman's decision to stay with the young man. You have to give a young guy a chance to keep the spot.

But just over half way through the 2010 season, the Nats have committed 74 errors this season. That's 6 more than any other team in baseball. It's double the number of errors committed by the Twins and the Padres and more than double the number committed by the Yankees. And it's only July 6th.

Of those 74 errors, Ian Desmond has committed 21 of them. The next closest shortstop in errors is the Brewers' Alcides Escobar with 14. Making matters worse, Desmond is hitting just over .250 and has a sub-.300 on-base percentage. All of these numbers translate to a shortstop who should lose his job.

You can always look at the good things a player does, and you should. In Tuesday's game, Desmond hit a home run and had a decent relay to home to prevent the Padres' 6th run in the top of the 9th. But you have to look at the entire body of work. And Desmond's error on the double play attempt gave up the run the game's tying run. Luckily, All-Star Ryan Zimmerman had a dramatic walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th for the win. (More on this soon.)

In the mean time, Alberto Gonzalez is a quality infielder with a good average. I've been high on AG for a while now, and maybe it's time to get him in, because Desmond isn't getting it done.

Stephen Strasburg: All-Star?

To those of you that loyally read Capitol Baseball, you know my thoughts on the All-Star Game and All-Star voting. I wrote a few weeks back about reforming voting, but a topic that has become more interesting to baseball fans across the country is whether Stephen Strasburg will, or should, make the All-Star Game.

Stephen Strasburg's introduction to major league baseball was a spectacle never seen before in DC, and maybe never before in the entire sport. The buzz generated around a singular player for a team that is a running joke for most baseball fans was remarkable for the Nation's Capital. The Nats were finally mentioned on Sportscenter, and Baseball Tonight, and MLB Network. And not to say "wow, look at how much this team sucks." To say "the Washington Nationals are looking up; they have what may be the best pitcher in the game." A refreshing change, indeed.

Strasburg's first start was dominant. His second, third, fourth, and fifth starts were not quite as incredible, but certainly were strong, despite offensive and defensive breakdowns in more than a few of them. Nonetheless, the hype surrounding his rookie year and the impending All-Star Game has people wondering... should Stephen Strasburg be an All-Star this year?

Strasburg will, we hope, have a long and prosperous career as a Washington National and will have plenty of opportunity to make the ASG on merit. But if he makes it this season, it would be on hype and MLB profits, not ability. Sure, Strasburg is exciting. He fills the seats at Nats games, a feat in its own right. He has seemingly endless talent. But when a rookie with 6 starts under his belt at the time the roster is decided by Charlie Manuel (July 4th), it's hard to make a good argument that he should make the squad.

In addition, the Nationals, as they have in 4 of their 5 seasons, will probably only have one representative at the ASG. I know that I, personally, would rather see someone that has earned his way. Maybe Zimmerman, maybe Capps, maybe Pudge, maybe even Clippard. But not Strasburg.

I get the feeling that Washingtonians will have plenty of opportunities to vote for Strasburg as an All-Star in the future. Why not let the fans select him to his first game, rather than a manager's pick? Strasburg may eventually be great, but today he's a rookie with out even a month of experience in the majors. He is not an All-Star.